• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.253-258
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.41-48
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• 2020

In this paper, a dynamic prediction algorithm using the cumulative distribution function for traffic volume is presented as a new method for predicting highway traffic rate more accurately, where an approximation function of the cumulative distribution function is obtained through numerical methods such as natural cubic spline interpolation and Levenberg-Marquardt method. This algorithm is a new structure of random number generation algorithm using the cumulative distribution function used in financial mathematics to be suitable for predicting traffic flow. It can be confirmed that if the highway traffic rate is simulated with this algorithm, the result is very similar to the actual traffic volume. Therefore, this algorithm is a new one that can be used in a variety of areas that require traffic forecasting as well as highways.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.727-740
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• 1998

Controlling traffic lights at a bottleneck, in [5] a time of open passage is called optimal, if it minimizes the first moment of the asymptotic distribution of the queue length. The discussion of the first moment as function of the time of open passage is based on an analysis of the behavior of a fixed point when varying control parameters and delivers theoretical and computational aspects of the traffic problem.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.267-284
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• 2022

A subsea pipeline designed across active shipping lane prones to failure against external interferences such as anchorage activities, hence risk assessment is essential. It requires quantifying the geometric probability derived from ship traffic distribution based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The actual probability density function from historical vessel traffic data is ideal, as for rapid assessment, conceptual study, when the AIS data is scarce or when the local vessels traffic are not utilised with AIS. Recommended practices suggest the probability distribution is assumed as a single peak Gaussian. This study compares several fitted Gaussian distributions and Monte Carlo simulation based on actual ship traffic data in main ship direction in an active shipping lane across a subsea pipeline. The results shows that a Gaussian distribution with five peaks is required to represent the ship traffic data, providing an error of 0.23%, while a single peak Gaussian distribution and the Monte Carlo simulation with one hundred million realisation provide an error of 1.32% and 0.79% respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that the multi-peak Gaussian distribution can represent the actual ship traffic distribution in the main direction, but it is less representative for ship traffic distribution in other direction. The geometric probability is utilised in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for subsea pipeline against vessel anchor dropping and dragging and vessel sinking.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.83-91
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• 2011

This paper discusses models for estimating dynamic travel times based on probability theory. The dynamic travel time models proposed in the paper are formulated assuming that the travel time of a vehicle depends on the distribution of the traffic stream condition with respect to the location along a road when the subject vehicle enters the starting point of a travel distance or with respect to the time at the starting point of a travel distance. The models also assume that the dynamic traffic flow can be represented as an exponential distribution function among other types of probability density functions.

• Journal of Urban Science
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to develop an index for evaluating the function of a new motorway using the travel distance frequency distribution (TLFD) calculated using the vehicle travel route big data, and to overcome the limitations of the evaluation through the existing traffic volume. The mobility evaluation index of motorways was developed by applying it to the TLFD data table in 2019. The smaller the value of the mobility evaluation index of the link is calculated, the more it is a link with mainly short-distance travel, and the higher the value of the mobility evaluation index, the more it means a link with mainly long-distance travel. The accessibility evaluation index was calculated through the result of the mobility evaluation index of all motorways developed, and all motorways were grouped into three groups using K-means clustering. Group A was found to exist inside a large city and consisted of motorways with many short-distance traffic, Group B was investigated as acting as an arterial between groups, and Group C was classified as a motorway consisting mainly of long-distance traffic connecting large cities and large cities. This study is significant in developing a new motorway function evaluation index that can overcome the limitations of motorway function evaluation through the existing traffic volume. It is expected that this study can be a reasonable comprehensive indicator in the operation and planning process of motorways.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.51-69
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• 2009

A network model and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed to solve the simultaneous estimation of the trip distribution and traffic assignment from traffic counts in the congested networks in a logit-based Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). The model is formulated as a problem of minimizing a non-linear objective function with the linear constraints. In the model, the flow-conservation constraints are utilized to restrict the solution space and to force the link flows become consistent to the traffic counts. The objective of the model is to minimize the discrepancies between two sets of link flows. One is the set of link flows satisfying the constraints of flow-conservation, trip production from origin, trip attraction to destination and traffic counts at observed links. The other is the set of link flows those are estimated through the trip distribution and traffic assignment using the path flow estimator in the logit-based SUE. In the proposed GA, a chromosome is defined as a real vector representing a set of Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM), link flows and route-choice dispersion coefficient. Each chromosome is evaluated by the corresponding discrepancies. The population of the chromosome is evolved by the concurrent simplex crossover and random mutation. To maintain the feasibility of solutions, a bounded vector shipment technique is used during the crossover and mutation.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.285-295
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• 2001

We consider a queueing system under overload control to support bursty traffic. The queueing system under overload control is modelled by MMBP/D1/K queue with two thresholds on buffer. Arrival of customer is assumed to be a Markov-modulated Bernoulli process (MMBP) by considering burstiness of traffic. Analysis is done in discrete-time case. Using the generating function method, we obtain the stationary queue length distribution. Finally, the loss probability and the waiting time distribution of a customer are given.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.179-187
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to identify the aspect that the traffic distribution function changes, according to the direction of the datum line and the horizontal and vertical positions of the datum point applied when it is calculated. Targeting routes at the entrance of Mokpo Harbor, this study tested using AIS survey data of January 2013 the effects of the three variables-direction of the datum line(${\theta}$), horizontal position($\mathfrak{L}_H$) and vertical position($\mathfrak{L}_V$) on mean ($\bar{x}$) and standard deviation (${\delta}$). The test result showed that $\bar{x}$ and ${\delta}$ were changed according to the change of ${\theta}$, because the extracted sample data were changed according to ${\theta}$; and the changes of $\bar{x}$ and ${\delta}$ according to ${\theta}$ were drawn as the relation of the sine function' sum. In addition, it was found that setting up ${\theta}$ that the change value of ${\delta}$ becomes the least as the direction of the datum line was valid, to determine the optimum passage distribution function on complex waters with multiple branches of route. The result of this study is expected to be used as basic data to understand maritime traffic flow based on more quantified data of normal distribution and make decisions related to maritime traffic safety management.

• Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.317-329
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• 2014

In vision measurement systems based on structured light, the key point of detection precision is to determine accurately the central position of the projected laser line in the image. The purpose of this research is to extract laser line centers based on a decision function generated to distinguish the real centers from candidate points with a high recognition rate. First, preprocessing of an image adopting a difference image method is conducted to realize image segmentation of the laser line. Second, the feature points in an integral pixel level are selected as the initiating light line centers by the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix. Third, according to the light intensity distribution of a laser line obeying a Gaussian distribution in transverse section and a constant distribution in longitudinal section, a normalized model of Hessian matrix eigenvalues for the candidate centers of the laser line is presented to balance reasonably the two eigenvalues that indicate the variation tendencies of the second-order partial derivatives of the Gaussian function and constant function, respectively. The proposed model integrates a Gaussian recognition function and a sinusoidal recognition function. The Gaussian recognition function estimates the characteristic that one eigenvalue approaches zero, and enhances the sensitivity of the decision function to that characteristic, which corresponds to the longitudinal direction of the laser line. The sinusoidal recognition function evaluates the feature that the other eigenvalue is negative with a large absolute value, making the decision function more sensitive to that feature, which is related to the transverse direction of the laser line. In the proposed model the decision function is weighted for higher values to the real centers synthetically, considering the properties in the longitudinal and transverse directions of the laser line. Moreover, this method provides a decision value from 0 to 1 for arbitrary candidate centers, which yields a normalized measure for different laser lines in different images. The normalized results of pixels close to 1 are determined to be the real centers by progressive scanning of the image columns. Finally, the zero point of a second-order Taylor expansion in the eigenvector's direction is employed to refine further the extraction results of the central points at the subpixel level. The experimental results show that the method based on this normalization model accurately extracts the coordinates of laser line centers and obtains a higher recognition rate in two group experiments.