• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Accident Statistics

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Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

Temporal hierarchical forecasting with an application to traffic accident counts (시간적 계층을 이용한 교통사고 발생건수 예측)

  • Jun, Gwanyoung;Seong, Byeongchan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2018
  • This paper introduces how to adopt the concept of temporal hierarchies to forecast time series data. Similarly as in hierarchical cross-sectional data, temporal hierarchies can be constructed for any time series data by means of non-overlapping temporal aggregation. Reconciliation forecasts with temporal hierarchies result in more accurate and robust forecasts when compared with the independent base and bottom-up forecasts. As an empirical example, we forecast traffic accident counts with temporal hierarchies and observe that reconciliation forecasts are superior to the base and bottom-up forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy.

Hierarchical time series forecasting with an application to traffic accident counts (계층적 시계열 분석을 이용한 지역별 교통사고 발생건수 예측)

  • Lee, Jooeun;Seong, Byeongchan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.181-193
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    • 2017
  • The paper introduces bottom-up and optimal combination methods that can analyze and forecast hierarchical time series. These methods allow forecasts at lower levels to be summed consistently to upper levels without any ad-hoc adjustment. They can also potentially improve forecast performance in comparison to independent forecasts. We forecast regional traffic accident counts as time series data in order to identify efficiency gains from hierarchical forecasting. We observe that bottom-up or optimal combination methods are superior to independent methods in terms of forecast accuracy.

Comparison of Association Rule Learning and Subgroup Discovery for Mining Traffic Accident Data (교통사고 데이터의 마이닝을 위한 연관규칙 학습기법과 서브그룹 발견기법의 비교)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2015
  • Traffic accident is one of the major cause of death worldwide for the last several decades. According to the statistics of world health organization, approximately 1.24 million deaths occurred on the world's roads in 2010. In order to reduce future traffic accident, multipronged approaches have been adopted including traffic regulations, injury-reducing technologies, driving training program and so on. Records on traffic accidents are generated and maintained for this purpose. To make these records meaningful and effective, it is necessary to analyze relationship between traffic accident and related factors including vehicle design, road design, weather, driver behavior etc. Insight derived from these analysis can be used for accident prevention approaches. Traffic accident data mining is an activity to find useful knowledges about such relationship that is not well-known and user may interested in it. Many studies about mining accident data have been reported over the past two decades. Most of studies mainly focused on predict risk of accident using accident related factors. Supervised learning methods like decision tree, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, neural network are used for these prediction. However, derived prediction model from these algorithms are too complex to understand for human itself because the main purpose of these algorithms are prediction, not explanation of the data. Some of studies use unsupervised clustering algorithm to dividing the data into several groups, but derived group itself is still not easy to understand for human, so it is necessary to do some additional analytic works. Rule based learning methods are adequate when we want to derive comprehensive form of knowledge about the target domain. It derives a set of if-then rules that represent relationship between the target feature with other features. Rules are fairly easy for human to understand its meaning therefore it can help provide insight and comprehensible results for human. Association rule learning methods and subgroup discovery methods are representing rule based learning methods for descriptive task. These two algorithms have been used in a wide range of area from transaction analysis, accident data analysis, detection of statistically significant patient risk groups, discovering key person in social communities and so on. We use both the association rule learning method and the subgroup discovery method to discover useful patterns from a traffic accident dataset consisting of many features including profile of driver, location of accident, types of accident, information of vehicle, violation of regulation and so on. The association rule learning method, which is one of the unsupervised learning methods, searches for frequent item sets from the data and translates them into rules. In contrast, the subgroup discovery method is a kind of supervised learning method that discovers rules of user specified concepts satisfying certain degree of generality and unusualness. Depending on what aspect of the data we are focusing our attention to, we may combine different multiple relevant features of interest to make a synthetic target feature, and give it to the rule learning algorithms. After a set of rules is derived, some postprocessing steps are taken to make the ruleset more compact and easier to understand by removing some uninteresting or redundant rules. We conducted a set of experiments of mining our traffic accident data in both unsupervised mode and supervised mode for comparison of these rule based learning algorithms. Experiments with the traffic accident data reveals that the association rule learning, in its pure unsupervised mode, can discover some hidden relationship among the features. Under supervised learning setting with combinatorial target feature, however, the subgroup discovery method finds good rules much more easily than the association rule learning method that requires a lot of efforts to tune the parameters.

Development of Accident Forecasting Models in Freeway Tunnels using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (다중선형 회귀분석을 이용한 고속도로 터널구간의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Park, Ju-Hwan;Kim, Sang-Gu
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2012
  • This paper analyzed the characteristics of traffic accidents in all tunnels on nationwide freeways and selected some various independent variables related to accident occurrence in tunnels. The study aims to develop reliable accident forecasting models using the various dependent variables such as the number of accident (no.), no./km, and no./MVK. Finally, reliable multiple linear regression models were proposed in this paper. This study tested the validity verification of developed models through statistics such as $R^2$, F values, multicollinearity, residual analysis. The paper selected the accident forecasting models considering the characteristics of tunnel accidents and two models were finally proposed according to two groups of tunnel length. In the selected models, natural logarithm of ln(no./MVK) is used for the dependent variable and AADT, vertical slope, and tunnel hight are used for the independent variables. The reliability of two models was proved by the comparison analysis between field data and estimating data using RMSE and MAE. These models may be not only effective in evaluating tunnel safety under design and planning phases of tunnel but also useful to reduce traffic accidents in tunnels and to manage the traffic flow of tunnel.

Retrospective Statistical Analysis on Patients Admitted to a Korean Medicine Hospital by Traffic Accident (교통사고로 한방병원에 입원한 환자에 대한 후향적 통계 분석)

  • Kim, Hong-Kyoung;Kim, Jeong-il;Kim, Young-il
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.26-45
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics of patients who were admitted to an oriental medicine hospital by traffic accident. Methods: The medical charts of 346 patients admitted to an oriental medicine hospital from June 1, 2017 to May 31, 2018 were analyzed. The Numbering Rating Scale (NRS) and duration of hospitalization were used to evaluate characteristics of the patients. Results: Acupuncture, Moxibustion, Infralux were used to treat all the patients. The most frequently used herbal medication was Danggwisu-san(22.25%). 87 patients(25.14%) visited the outpatient department after being discharged from the hospital. The most frequent complaint in terms of pain was cervical pain(82.7%) and of systemic symptom was headache(23.7%). Men and younger aged patients showed higher therapeutic effect than women and older ages. The most common duration of hospitalization was 2~4 days(42.73%) and positively correlated with therapeutic effect. The most frequent interval between time of injury and visit to the hospital was from 0-1 days(68.90%) and showed no relationship with therapeutic effect. The most frequent admission pathway was "Directly to the hospital"(57.51%). Admission pathway was proportionally associated with duration of hospitalization and treatment results were not. The most common vehicle type involved in the traffic accidents was a sedan(72.25%), accident type was a rear-end collision(43.64%) and showed no relationship with therapeutic effect. Conclusions: In this study, therapeutic effects were highly correlated among men, younger ages, and duration of hospital stay, and was not for interval days, admission pathway, vehicle type, and accident type.

A Study about The Typical Patterns of Driver's Characteristics by The Q Analysis Method (with Traffic Law Violator and Traffic Accident Causer) (Q 분석 방법을 이용한 운전자 운전성향별 유형화에 관한 연구 (교통법규 위반자 및 교통사고 야기자를 중심으로))

  • Jang, Seok-Yong;Jung, Hun-Young;Lee, Won-Gyu;Ko, Sang-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.165-180
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to propose an effective traffic safety countermeasure to reduce both violations of road traffic acts and accident rates related to the driver's characteristics by measuring them using Q analysis method, a microscopic statistics analysis method. As a result, violators of the road traffic act could be divided into five driving characteristics and causers of traffic accident could be classified into six driving characteristics. By understanding these characteristics, We could establish a proper traffic safety countermeasure for each driving characteristic. The accomplishments of this research are as follows: The first, We could classify the decisive driving characteristics, which cause road traffic acts and traffic accidents, into internal and external causes. The relationship between each driver's characteristic and the occurrence of the road traffic act and traffic accident could be recognized more clearly. We could find the dangerous driver samples who have Accidents proneness. The second, As a result of analyzing the characteristics of these factors, We could sort out and suggest countermeasure for reducing violation of road traffic acts and traffic accidents as a priority countermeasure and complementary countermeasure. Finally, transportation companies most closely related to automobile accidents can judge new personnels on the basis of their driving characteristics before hiring, and also apply this principle to the traffic safety education vigorously.

Observation of Factors on Post-traffic accident Neck Pain in a Medical Center : Retrospective Chart Review (일개 의료기관에 입원한 교통사고 후 환자의 경항통 및 특성에 대한 관찰 : 후향적 챠트 리뷰)

  • Koo, Jieun;Park, Jiwon;Han, Hyeonju;Jo, Hee-Geun
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2021
  • Many prior studies on neck pain after a traffic accident (TA), but there is a lack of research on risk factors for post-TA neck pain in Korea. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between post-traffic neck pain and the demographic characteristics of TA patients and to find any factors affecting the neck pain after TA. In this study, 120 TA patients in a Korean medicine hosipital were analysized. The Korean version of the Neck disability Index (NDI) and Numeral Rating Scale (NRS) were used. Data were summarized by frequency(%) and mean(standard deviation). Pearson correlation test, Independent sample t-test, chi-squre test, one-way ANOVA and two-way ANOVA were performed. The IBM SPSS Advanced Statistics for window, version 20.0 was used for statistical processing. All p-values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. NDI and NRS were highly correlated. NRS and NDI showed higher scores for women, those in 30s, BMI≥25, and side collisions, but there were no statistically significant differences. For women, the direction of collision was observed to affect NDI. In this study, it was confirmed that the NDI and NRS had a high correlation. However, it was confirmed that sex, degree of obesity, direction of traffic accident collision are not factors that significantly affect the intensity of neck pain and the functional disorder by neck. It is necessary to conduct an additional study by larger scale.

A Clinical Study on Effect of Electro-acupuncture Treatment for Lumbago Patients Caused by Traffic Accident (교통사고로 인한 요통환자의 전침치료 효과에 대한 임상적 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Joo;Lee, Han;Jung, Ho-Suk;Kim, Eun-Seok;Woo, Jae-Hyuk;Han, Kyung-Wan;Lee, Seul-Ji;Lee, Joon-Seok;Yoo, In-Sik
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 2010
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of electro-acupuncture treatment for lumbago patients caused by traffic accident. Methods : 60 patients were divided into two groups, group A and group B, of 30 patients each. Group A was treated with electro-acupuncture treatment and general acupuncture treatment twice per week for four weeks. Group B was treated with general acupuncture treatment twice per week for four weeks. Results : Between the two groups there was no significant difference in the VAS and RMDQ in the statistics. Conclusions : There was no significant difference between the two groups in the VAS and RMDQ in the statistics. However, it turned out that electro-acupuncture and general acupuncture was effective in reducing the pain of the patients in group A and B according to increased number of the treatment.

Development of Accident Scenarios for Hydrogen Refueling Station and Fuel Cell Vehicle (수소충전소 및 수소자동차의 사고 시나리오 개발)

  • Byoungjik Park;Yangkyun Kim;Ohk Kun Lim
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2023
  • The registration rate of eco-friendly vehicles, such as hydrogen vehicles, is increasing rapidly, however, few first responders have experienced related accidents. Accident scenarios at hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen vehicles on a road were investigated, and the relative importance of each scenario was analyzed using AHP analysis. Leakage, jet flame, and explosion that occurred inside and outside the hydrogen refueling station were reviewed, and the hydrogen gas explosion in the compartment showed the highest importance value. In case of the hydrogen vehicle, traffic accident statistics and actual accidents were used. It was analyzed that the hydrogen vessel explosion on the road due to the failure of TPRD and the leakage in the underground parking area were difficult to respond. The developed accident scenarios are expected to be used for first responder training.