• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trading rules

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Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

A Two-Phase Stock Trading System based on Pattern Matching and Automatic Rule Induction (패턴 매칭과 자동 규칙 생성에 기반한 2단계 주식 트레이딩 시스템)

  • Lee, Jong-Woo;Kim, Yu-Seop;Kim, Sung-Dong;Lee, Jae-Won;Chae, Jin-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2003
  • In the context of a dynamic trading environment, the ultimate goal of the financial forecasting system is to optimize a specific trading objective. This paper proposes a two-phase (extraction and filtering) stock trading system that aims at maximizing the rates of returns. Extraction of stocks is performed by searching specific time-series patterns described by a combination of values of technical indicators. In the filtering phase, several rules are applied to the extracted sets of stocks to select stocks to be actually traded. The filtering rules are automatically induced from past data. From a large database of daily stock prices, the values of technical indicators are calculated. They are used to make the extraction patterns, and the distributions of the discretization intervals of the values are calculated for both positive and negative data sets. We assumed that the values in the intervals of distinctive distribution may contribute to the prediction of future trend of stocks, so the rules for filtering stocks are automatically induced from the data in those intervals. We show the rates of returns when using our trading system outperform the market average. These results mean rule induction method using distributional differences is useful.

An Empirical Study of the Trading Rules on the basis of Market Anomalies and Technical Analysis (시장이상현상과 기술적 분석을 이용한 거래전략에 관한 연구)

  • Ohk, Ki-Yool;Lee, Min-Kyu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2018
  • This study validates the trading rules based market anomalies and technical analysis in the Korean stock market. For the analysis, we built decile portfolios on the basis of corporate characteristics factors that clearly demonstrate specific patterns of stock returns including the firm size, book-to-market equity, and accruals. This portfolio was used to develop a portfolio based on the moving average trading strategy which was used for popular technical analysis tools, and then that was evaluated using the Sharpe ratio. We also created a zero-cost portfolio to identify the profitability and success rate of the moving average trading strategy. We lastly sought to ensure a more robust evaluation by calculating the Sortino ratio of the portfolio based on the moving average trading strategy with various lags. Key findings from this validation are as follows. First, a smaller firm size, a higher book-to-market equity, and lower accruals led to larger average returns. Second, the risk-adjusted performance of the moving average trading strategy was the highest in terms of the firm size, followed by book-to-market equity and accruals. Third, the returns of the zero-cost portfolios all had a positive value, with its overall success rate hovering over 68.8%, demonstrating the successfulness of the moving average trading strategy. Fourth, various evaluations revealed the economic usefulness of our trading strategy that used market anomalies and technical analysis.

Conceptual Framework for Pattern-Based Real-Time Trading System using Genetic Algorithm (유전알고리즘 활용한 실시간 패턴 트레이딩 시스템 프레임워크)

  • Lee, Suk-Jun;Jeong, Suk-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study is to design an intelligent pattern-based real-time trading system (PRTS) using rough set analysis of technical indicators, dynamic time warping (DTW), and genetic algorithm in stock futures market. Rough set is well known as a data-mining tool for extracting trading rules from huge data sets such as real-time data sets, and a technical indicator is used for the construction of the data sets. To measure similarity of patterns, DTW is used over a given period. Through an empirical study, we identify the ideal performances that were profitable in various market conditions.

Bill of Lading and Effect of Commercial Arbitration Agreement -With Special Reference to English and American Decisions- (선하증권과 중재합의의 효력 - 영ㆍ미의 판례를 중심으로 -)

  • 강이수
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.303-336
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    • 2003
  • Incorporation of an arbitration clause by reference to other documents occurs in many international business transactions. The reference is either to another document that contains arbitration clause or to trading rules which contain the arbitration clause, without the main contract mentioning that arbitration has been agreed upon. In fact, incorporation by reference in to a contract of an arbitration clause set forth in another agreement is deemed valid in any number of circumstances, even when the parties to the two contractual instruments are not the same. Difficulties arise when, instead of an express arbitration provision, a contract contains a clause which refers to the trading rules of a certain trade association, so-called external arbitration clause. The U.S. courts which will presume that the parties intended to arbitrate under a particular set of rules when they expressly mentioned arbitration in their agreement, have sometimes refused to enforce contract clauses that do no more than refer to particular trading rules, even if these rules contain provisions binding the parties to arbitrate their disputes. The courts in such cases tend to be careful in determinig whether intent to arbitrate is present. In maritime contracts, the arbitration clause in a charter party is often referred to in the bill of lading. Such reference usually is held binding upon the parties to the contract of carriage, their knowledge of such practice being presumed. A nonsignatory may compell arbitration against a party to an arbitration agreement when that party has entered into a separate contractual relationship with the nonsignatory which incorporates the existing arbitration clause. If a party's arbitration clause is expressly incorporated into a bill of lading, nonsignatories … who are linked to that bill … may be bound to the arbitration agreement of others. An arbitration clause in a charterparty will be incorporated into a bill of lading if either - (a) there are specific words of incorporation in the bill, and the arbitration clause is so worded as to make sense in the context of the bill, and the clause dose not conflict with the express terms of the bill; or (b) there are general words of incorporation in the bill, and the arbitration clause or some other provision in the charter makes it clear that the clause is to govern disputes under the bill as well as under the charter. In all other cases, the arbitration clause is not incorporated into the bill.

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Pool Rules for Korean Wholesale Electricity Market (도매경쟁 전력시장에서의 풀운영 규칙)

  • Moon, Young-Hwan;Oh, Tae-Kyoo;Kim, Sung-Soo;Kim, Yong-Wan;Kim, Young-Chang
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.11b
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    • pp.167-169
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    • 2001
  • This paper introduces the principal pool rules of the wholesale power market scheduled to be commissioned in January 2003 in Korea. The pool rules includes electricity trading procedures such as bidding, determining and publishing of forecasted market price, and 5 minute unconstrained dispatch scheduling for generation/market price, which are required for settlement after dispatching and should be conformed by KPX and participants in the market. Detailed procedures of the rules are under development and additional provisions for stable market operation are under discussion.

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Performance Analysis on Day Trading Strategy with Bid-Ask Volume (호가잔량정보를 이용한 데이트레이딩전략의 수익성 분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.36-46
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    • 2019
  • If stock market is efficient, any well-devised trading rule can't consistently outperform the average stock market returns. This study aims to verify whether the strategy based on bid-ask volume information can beat the stock market. I suggested a day trading strategy using order imbalance indicator and empirically analyzed its profitability with the KOSPI 200 index futures data from 2001 to 2018. Entry rules are as follows: If BSI is over 50%, enter buy order, otherwise enter sell order, assuming that stock price rises after BSI is over 50% and stock price falls after BSI is less than 50%. The empirical results showed that the suggested trading strategy generated very high trading profit, that is, its annual return runs to minimum 71% per annum even after the transaction costs. The profit was generated consistently during 18 years. This study also improved the suggested trading strategy applying the genetic algorithm, which may help the market practitioners who trade the KOSPI 200 index futures.

A Comparative Study on Rules of Origin of FTA signed by Korea and China (한·중 각국이 체결한 FTA협정의 원산지 규정 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Cheol;Kim, Hee-Cheol;La, Kong-Woo
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.139-158
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyze South Korea and China have already concluded FTA rules of origin. By comparison and analysis of the relevant provisions in the country of origin of signed FTA, we obtained the necessary implications of origin on the FTA negotiations that will be concluded in the future. FTA between Korea and China's opening level is much lower than the already concluded FTA's, and Korea and the ASEAN FTA has already been signed with similar concessions. However, in understanding the rules of origin in China, it is important for us that China is the first trading partner of the trade. Korean companies are well aware of the rules of origin in China, and it should be noted to prevent damage caused due to the rules of origin in the process of expanding trade with the Contracting Parties.

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A Study on Ethical Problem of Insider Trading (내부자 거래의 윤리적 문제점에 대한 연구)

  • Yoon, Hye-jin
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.126
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    • pp.213-233
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this paper is to reveal the ethical problem of insider trading. 'Insider trading' refer to obtaining information from non-public sources such as private acquaintances about trade secret, using it purposes of enhancing insider's financial advantages. And sometimes such a practice can be conducted fraudulently. Therefore, the focus of this paper will be on fairness or justice arguments against insider trading. And all kinds of discussion this paper are to focus the underlying consideration behind these arguments, that is, the underlying consideration about violation of ethical standards of fairness. First, one of these arguments argues that insider trading does necessarily involve defrauding general investors such as general employees, general stockholders. And economic power and unjust advantage of insider can be exercised to the detriment of this non-insider's interests. Second, another argument argues that insider trading undermines competition which is the principle of any free market. And insider trading is not only a complication in the free market mechanism, but also thwarts free competition which free markets depend. Third, the final argument argues that insider trading will be made something unfair about the concept of equal access to information. This argument argues, therefore, that to permit insider trading would be to set up stock market trading rules that are unfair to non-insiders.