• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.91-102
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• 2000

Nowadays, every kind of system is changed so complex and enormous, it is necessary to assure system reliability, product liability and safety. Fault tree analysis(FTA) is a reliability/safety design analysis technique which starts from consideration of system failure effect, referred to as “top event”, and proceeds by determining how these can be caused by single or combined lower level failures or events. So in fault tree analysis, it is important to find the combination of events which affect system failure. Minimal cut sets(MCS) and minimal path sets(MPS) are used in this process. FTA-I computer program is developed which calculates MCS and MPS in terms of Gw-Basic computer language considering Fussell's algorithm. FTA-II computer program which analyzes importance and function cost of VE consists. of five programs as follows : (l) Structural importance of basic event, (2) Structural probability importance of basic event, (3) Structural criticality importance of basic event, (4) Cost-Failure importance of basic event, (5) VE function cost analysis for importance of basic event. In this study, a method of initiation such as failure, function and cost in FTA is suggested, and especially the priority rank which is calculated by computer-aided decision analysis program developed in this study can be used in decision making determining the most important basic event under various conditions. Also the priority rank can be available for the case which selects system component in FMEA analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.44-54
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• 1992

In conventional fault-tree analysis, the failure probabilities of components of a system are treated as exact values in estimating the failure probability of the top event. For the plant layout and systems of the products, however, it is often difficult to evaluate the failure probabilities of components from past occurences, because the environments of the systems change. Furthermore, it might be necessary to consider possible failure of components of the systems even if they have never failed before. In the paper, instead of the probability of failure, we propose the possibility of failure, viz, a fuzzy set defined in probability space. Thus, in this paper based on a fuzzy fault-tree model, the maximum possibility of system failure is determined from the possibility of failure of each component within the system according to the extension principle.

• Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.113-127
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• 1996

In Human Reliability Analysis(HRA), the uncertainties involved in many factors that affect human reliability have to be represented as the quantitative forms. Conventional probability- based human reliability theory is used to evaluate the effect of those uncertainties but it is pointed out that the actual human reliability should be different from that of conventional one. Conventional HRA makes use of error rates, however, it is difficult to collect data enough to estimate these error rates, and the estimates of error rates are dependent only on engineering judgement. In this paper, the error possibility that is proposed by Onisawa is used to represent human reliability, and the error possibility is obtained by use of fuzzy reasoning that plays an important role to clarify the relation between human reliability and human error. Also, assuming these factors are connected to the top event through Fault Tree structure, the influence and correlation of these factors are measured by fuzzy operation. When a fuzzy operation is applied to Fault Tree Analysis, it is possible to simplify the operation applying the logic disjuction and logic conjuction to structure function, and the structure of human reliability can be represented as membership function of the top event. Also, on the basis of the the membership function, the characteristics of human reliability can be evaluated by use of the concept of pattern recognition.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.14-29
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• 1992

COMCAF, a computer code for the common-cause failure analysis, is developed to treat the common-cause failures in nuclear power plants. In the treatment of common-cause failures, the minimal cut sets of the system are obtained first without changing the fault-tree structure. The occurrence probabilities of the minimal cut sets are then calculated accounting for the common-cause failures among components in the same minimal cut set or in different minimal cut sets. The basic parameter model is used to model the common-cause failures between similar or identical components. For dissimilar components, the assumption of symmetry used in the basic parameter model is applied to the basic events affecting two or more components. The top event probability is evaluated using the inclusion-exclusion method. In addition to the common-cause failures of components in the same minimal cut sets, failures of components in the different minimal cut sets are also easily accounted for by this method. This study applied this common-cause failure analysis to the PWR auxiliary feedwater system. The results in the top event probability for the system are compared with those of no common-cause failures.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.5-16
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• 1988

This study is conducted to evaluate the explosion of tolune storage tank in the petrochemical plant by Fault Tree Analysis. The conclusions are as follows; 1) Fault Tree diagram and the required computer program for evaluation of explosion accident is developed. 2) The probability of the top event, explosion accident, is $1.5\;{\times}\;10^{-8}$ per year, so there is almost no possibility of explosion during the life cycle of tank. However, the probability of Gate 6 and Gate 7 is 8.8 per month, therefore, attention should be paid to them for accident prevention. 3) The number of minimal cut sets is 67 sets which are not calculated the probability of each set, because of the lack of computer capacity. All the minimal cut sets should be examined case by case. However, it is necessary to be paid attention to COM1, 126, 131, and COM4 in minimal cut sets, because the number of appearance is so high. 4) The number path sets is 70 sets which are not calculated the probability of each set, because of the lack of computer capacity. It is very useful to prepare safety checklist by using this minimal path sets. Also, the events which appear many times, 123, COM5, 139, 127 and 128, are very high in reliability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.26 no.2_2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2023

Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.2238-2249
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• 2020

In a seismic PSA, dependency among seismic failures of components has not been explicitly modeled in the fault tree or event tree. This dependency is separately identified and assigned with numbers that range from zero to unity that reflect the level of the mutual correlation among seismic failures. Because of complexity and difficulty in calculating combination probabilities of correlated seismic failures in complex seismic event tree and fault tree, there has been a great need of development to explicitly model seismic correlation in terms of seismic common cause failures (CCFs). If seismic correlations are converted into seismic CCFs, it is possible to calculate an accurate value of a top event probability or frequency of a complex seismic fault tree by using the same procedure as for internal, fire, and flooding PSA. This study first proposes a methodology to explicitly model seismic dependency by converting correlated seismic failures into seismic CCFs. As a result, this methodology will allow systems analysts to quantify seismic risk as what they have done with the CCF method in internal, fire, and flooding PSA.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.100-106
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• 2015

A module or independent subtree is a part of a fault tree whose child gates or basic events are not repeated in the remaining part of the fault tree. Modules are necessarily employed in order to reduce the computational costs of fault tree quantification. This quantification generates fault tree solutions such as minimal cut sets, minimal path sets, or binary decision diagrams (BDDs), and then, calculates top event probability and importance measures. This paper presents a new linear time algorithm to detect modules of large fault trees. It is shown through benchmark tests that the new method proposed in this study can very quickly detect the modules of a huge fault tree. It is recommended that this method be implemented into fault tree solvers for efficient probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.553-554
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• 2015

This paper presents the selection method of Minimal Cut Sets(MCS) for substation reliability evaluation. We used the Quality solution in order to model the FT for the substation equipment. Quantitative analysis is performed to estimate the probability of top event occurrence and unreliability of the substation component. In this result, it means that reliability indices which can be predict get electricity services and better maintenance in substation management.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.180-190
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• 1997

A new method in the fault tree analysis (FTA) for the reliability calculation is suggested. Two steps are necessary in traditional method in evaluation of the occurrence probability of top event in fault tree (FT). The first step is to find the minimal outsets, and the second one is to substitute the result into the poincare equation. In order to reduce the enormous computing time of this method, lots of rapid algorithms have been developed. Almost of all achievements were, however, based on the partial structural properties of FT. In this paper, the FT is transformed to a non-linear graph G which has the same minimal outsets of original n, and then the reliability is calculated using the domination theory. In this new method, the required number of equation terms are at most $2^n$ (n is node number of graph G), while $2^m$-1 (m is the number of minimal cutsets) calculation terms are required in the poincare equation in traditional method. Since m>>n in general. our new method reduces the calculation time significantly.