• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-to-go Estimation

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Estimation of Crop Water Requirement Changes Due to Future Land Use and Climate Changes in Lake Ganwol Watershed (간월호 유역의 토지이용 및 기후변화에 따른 논밭 필요수량 변화 추정)

  • Kim, Sinaee;Kim, Seokhyeon;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang-Min;Song, Jung-Hun;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.6
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to assess the changes in crop water requirement of paddy and upland according to future climate and land use changes scenarios. Changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and precipitation are factors that lower the stability of agricultural water supply, and predicting the changes in crop water requirement in consideration of climate change can prevent the waste of limited water resources. Meanwhile, due to the recent changes in the agricultural product consumption structure, the area of paddy and upland has been changing, and it is necessary to consider future land use changes in establishing an appropriate water use plan. Climate change scenarios were derived from the four GCMs of the CMIP6, and climate data were extracted under two future scenarios, namely SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Future land use changes were predicted using the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model. Crop water requirement in paddy was calculated as the sum of evapotranspiration and infiltration based on the water balance in a paddy field, and crop water requirement in upland was estimated as the evapotranspiration value by applying Penman-Monteith method. It was found that the crop water requirement for both paddy and upland increased as we go to the far future, and the degree of increase and variability by time showed different results for each GCM. The results derived from this study can be used as basic data to develop sustainable water resource management techniques considering future watershed environmental changes.

A Scheme of Compensation System for Farmers' Accidents through the Example of Germany (독일의 사례를 통해 본 농업인재해 보장체계 구축 방안)

  • Min, Byeong-Wook;Kim, Hyo-Chel;Lee, Kyung-Suk
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.351-384
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to look at the case of the German compensation system for farmers' accidents and to build a basic scheme in our country's compensation system for farmers' accidents. When you view examples of Germany, the social insurance scheme for farmers accidents in korea should be design as an independent institution from the existing industrial accident insurance, and it comes to relationships with other social insurance system, preferably with complementary personalities. A general rule of the compensation system applies to all farmers in principle but the coverage limits part-time farmers. Financial burden consists of the mix of insurance premium and state aid. The type and level of benefits is similar to the current industrial accident insurance, which give priority to places on economic security for keeping farmworks, such as cost for using temporary farmers, rather than income loss. In terms of financial system, pay-as-you-go system would be better because of immediate payment with the introduction of the compensation system. The compensation system might be managed and administrated by the existing nationwide organization. Of course, for operating of system review and further research on the technical details such as premium issues and funding problems of government support, the exact classification of the target coverage, premiums based on estimated income for the farmers' estimation, the exact statistical data on the accumulation of agricultural disaster is needed.

Quantification of Melanin Density at Epidermal Basal Layer by Using Confocal Scanning Laser Microscope (CSLM) (Confocal Scanning Laser Microscope (CSLM)을 이용한 피부 기저층 멜라닌 밀도의 정량화)

  • Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Sung Ho;Oh, Myoung Jin;Choi, Go Woon;Yang, Woo Chul;Park, Chang Seo
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.259-268
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    • 2014
  • Non-invasive technologies in skin research have enabled to use a live image of living skin without a biopsy or histologic processing of tissue. Confocal scanning laser microscope (CSLM) operated at a near-infrared wavelength of 830 nm allows visualization of inner structure of skin as a non-invasive manner. According to previous researches using CSLM, melanin cap and papillary ring were clearly observed in pigmented areas between stratum basale and papillary dermis. In this study, conversional analysis of CSLM digital images into numerical estimation using scanning probe image processor (SPIP) software was attempted for the first time. It is concluded that a quantification of CSLM images can pave way to expand the field of applications of CSLM.

Analysing the Relationship Between Tree-Ring Growth of Pinus densiflora and Climatic Factors Based on National Forest Inventory Data (국가산림자원조사 자료를 활용한 소나무 연륜생장과 기후인자와의 관계분석)

  • Lim, Jong-Hwan;Park, Go Eun;Moon, Na Hyun;Moon, Ga Hyun;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.2
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    • pp.249-257
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between tree-ring growth of Pinus densiflora and climate factors based on national forest inventory(NFI) data. Annual tree-ring growth data of P. densiflora collected by the $5^{th}$ NFI were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. Yearly growing degree days and standard precipitation index based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 were calculated. Using the information, yearly temperature effect index(TEI) and precipitation effect index(PEI) were estimated to analyze the effect of climate conditions on the tree-ring growth of the species. A tree-ring growth estimation equation appropriate for P. densiflora was then developed by using the TEI and PEI as independent variables. The tree-ring growth estimation equation was finally applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for predicting the changes in tree-ring growth of P. densiflora from 2011 to 2100. The results indicate that tree-ring growth of P. densiflora is predicted to be decreased over time when the tree-ring growth estimation equation is applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is predicted that the decrease of tree-ring growth over time is relatively small when RCP 4.5 is applied. On the other hand, the steep decrease of tree-ring growth was found in the application of RCP 8.5, especially after the year of 2050. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of P. densiflora and for predicting changes in tree-ring growth patterns caused by climates change.

Supply Chain-based Freight Distribution Channel Choice Model using Distribution Channel Analysis (유통경로분석을 통한 공급사슬기반의 화물유통경로선택모형 개발)

  • Go, Yeong-Seung;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Su;Park, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

Effect of the Bonus-Malus Policy upon Car Market Structure (자동차 시장구조에 따른 저탄소차협력금제도의 효과 변화)

  • Yi, Woo Pyeong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2015
  • The policy aimed at introducing a Bonus-Malus system to reduce GHG and raise the market share of small cars is scheduled to go into effect in South Korea in 2020. Although the policy was originally planned to be enforced from 2015, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy argued that the system brings low reduction effect and relative disadvantage to domestic small cars and brought arguments in 2014. As a result, the enforcement was pushed back. Related studies are mainly focused on offering statistical estimation of the policy's effect to support the arguments, and few theoretical studies were published given that there was not enough time until 2015 back then. The author approached the issue with mathematical modeling in order to give theoretical basis for sophisticated empirical studies. If car suppliers have market power and strategically set their prices, the impact of Bouns-Malus on car prices would be lower than what was originally intended. In case only a part of the car market loses its market power, the effect of the policy would be improved. Assume that the Bonus-Malus is currently at an optimal level and the car market structure is undergoing changes, then the direction of the new optimal level would depend on the elasticity of demand of each market and substitute elasticity. For example, if the car market becomes more monopolistic while the demand for big cars is elastic, demand for small cars is inelastic and substitution elasticity is low, then the new optimal level of Bonus-Malus should be higher.

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An Efficient Estimation of Place Brand Image Power Based on Text Mining Technology (텍스트마이닝 기반의 효율적인 장소 브랜드 이미지 강도 측정 방법)

  • Choi, Sukjae;Jeon, Jongshik;Subrata, Biswas;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.113-129
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    • 2015
  • Location branding is a very important income making activity, by giving special meanings to a specific location while producing identity and communal value which are based around the understanding of a place's location branding concept methodology. Many other areas, such as marketing, architecture, and city construction, exert an influence creating an impressive brand image. A place brand which shows great recognition to both native people of S. Korea and foreigners creates significant economic effects. There has been research on creating a strategically and detailed place brand image, and the representative research has been carried out by Anholt who surveyed two million people from 50 different countries. However, the investigation, including survey research, required a great deal of effort from the workforce and required significant expense. As a result, there is a need to make more affordable, objective and effective research methods. The purpose of this paper is to find a way to measure the intensity of the image of the brand objective and at a low cost through text mining purposes. The proposed method extracts the keyword and the factors constructing the location brand image from the related web documents. In this way, we can measure the brand image intensity of the specific location. The performance of the proposed methodology was verified through comparison with Anholt's 50 city image consistency index ranking around the world. Four methods are applied to the test. First, RNADOM method artificially ranks the cities included in the experiment. HUMAN method firstly makes a questionnaire and selects 9 volunteers who are well acquainted with brand management and at the same time cities to evaluate. Then they are requested to rank the cities and compared with the Anholt's evaluation results. TM method applies the proposed method to evaluate the cities with all evaluation criteria. TM-LEARN, which is the extended method of TM, selects significant evaluation items from the items in every criterion. Then the method evaluates the cities with all selected evaluation criteria. RMSE is used to as a metric to compare the evaluation results. Experimental results suggested by this paper's methodology are as follows: Firstly, compared to the evaluation method that targets ordinary people, this method appeared to be more accurate. Secondly, compared to the traditional survey method, the time and the cost are much less because in this research we used automated means. Thirdly, this proposed methodology is very timely because it can be evaluated from time to time. Fourthly, compared to Anholt's method which evaluated only for an already specified city, this proposed methodology is applicable to any location. Finally, this proposed methodology has a relatively high objectivity because our research was conducted based on open source data. As a result, our city image evaluation text mining approach has found validity in terms of accuracy, cost-effectiveness, timeliness, scalability, and reliability. The proposed method provides managers with clear guidelines regarding brand management in public and private sectors. As public sectors such as local officers, the proposed method could be used to formulate strategies and enhance the image of their places in an efficient manner. Rather than conducting heavy questionnaires, the local officers could monitor the current place image very shortly a priori, than may make decisions to go over the formal place image test only if the evaluation results from the proposed method are not ordinary no matter what the results indicate opportunity or threat to the place. Moreover, with co-using the morphological analysis, extracting meaningful facets of place brand from text, sentiment analysis and more with the proposed method, marketing strategy planners or civil engineering professionals may obtain deeper and more abundant insights for better place rand images. In the future, a prototype system will be implemented to show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper.

An Analysis on Consumers' Awareness of a Rural Specialties Exhibition Shop and the Design Development : Focusing on Rural Tourism Village (농촌 농특산품 전시판매시설 디자인 소비자 의식 분석 및 디자인 개발 - 농촌관광마을을 중심으로 -)

  • Jin, Hye-Ryeon;Seo, Ji-Ye;Jo, Lok-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2014
  • This, an association research for design-improvement and model-development of exhibition shops at rural tourism communities, is to secure objective data by analyzing customers' awareness-tendency of and demand for agricultural-specialty exhibition shops. Survey-questions for finding out consumers' awareness-tendency and demand were determined through brainstorming of a professional council, 30 rural communities of which visit-rate by consumers is considerably high were selected for the recruit of 200 consumers. For investigation and analysis, survey and in-depth interview were carried out at the scene with the application of frequency analysis and summarization of their opinions, which revealed that they have a strong will to visit the rural tourism communities for the purchase of agricultural specialties along with the experience of learning-program and on-the-scene direct dealing and that their viewpoint on the direct dealing at the scene was very positive. Also it was confirmed hat their satisfaction with the purchase of agricultural specialties by on-the-scene direct dealing, their pleasure at the purchase, their satisfaction with services and their intention for re-purchase of them were very high while their satisfaction with the exhibition shops was very low. With on-the-scene survey, the consumers' opinions could be listened to in depth. Almost all of them said their satisfaction with the trip to those rural tourism communities was considerably high since they could go to those communities themselves to relieve the stress from their modern life, to experience healing and to see the goods on the scene. Their satisfaction also was attributed to the fact that they have enough trust in purchase along with feeling the warm-heartedness of rural residents. As to their awareness of exhibition shops, they showed a positive response to the on-the-scene direct dealing at rural communities while they, thinking that the space in those exhibition shops was not sufficiently wide, demanded for more systematic counters in more accessible and affordable exhibition shops so that they might be more satisfied with the exhibition shops. Their demand for the necessity of exhibition shops selling agricultural specialties was found to be over 80%, which indicates that the necessity is very high. As to the suitability of function, they have the opinion that the business at those shops had better be focused on sales since they have the understanding of information when they take a trip to the rural communities, while there was another opinion: since agricultural products are seasonal items they should be exhibited and sold at the same time. More than 90% of the respondents had a positive viewpoint on direct dealing of agricultural specialties on the scene, which showed that their response to it was very high. They preferred the permanent shops equipped with roll-around table-booths. In addition, it was revealed that they want systematic exhibition shops in rural communities because they frequent those communities for on-the-scene direct purchase. The preferred type and opinion resulting from estimation of consumers' demands have been reflected for development of practical designs. The structure of variable principles has been designed so that the types of display-case and table-booth might be created. The result of this study is a positive data as a design model which can be utilized at rural communities and will be commercialized for the verification of its validity.