• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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The Relationship Between Entrepreneurial Competency and Entrepreneurial Intention of SME Workers: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Start-Up Efficacy and Start-Up Mentor (중소기업 종사자의 창업역량과 창업의도 간의 영향 관계: 창업효능감과 창업멘토링의 매개효과 중심으로)

  • Oun Ju Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.201-214
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    • 2023
  • This study attempted to analyze the impact of individual entrepreneurial capabilities on entrepreneurial intention targeting small and medium-sized business employees, and sought to confirm the mediating effect of entrepreneurial efficacy and entrepreneurial mentoring between entrepreneurial capabilities and entrepreneurial intention. The sub-variables of entrepreneurship competency were analyzed separately into creativity, problem solving, communication, and marketing. 368 questionnaires collected from employees at small and medium-sized manufacturing companies located across the country were used for empirical analysis. A parallel dual mediation model with no causal relationship between parameters was used for empirical analysis using SPSS v26.0 and PROCESS macro v4.2. As a result of the analysis, first, among the start-up competencies, creativity, communication, and marketing were confirmed to have a significant positive (+) effect on start-up efficacy. Second, among the start-up competencies, creativity, communication, and marketing were tested to have a significant positive influence on start-up mentoring. Third, both startup efficacy and startup mentoring were found to have a significant positive influence on startup intention. Fourth, among start-up capabilities, creativity and marketing were confirmed to have a significant positive (+) effect on start-up intention. Fifth, startup efficacy and startup mentoring were found to have a mediating effect on startup intention except for problem solving among startup competencies. As a result, it was confirmed that in order to strengthen the intention to start a business among small and medium-sized business employees, start-up efficacy and start-up mentoring are important factors, and that marketing and creativity have an important influence among individual start-up capabilities, so education and prior preparation for these are necessary. As follow-up research, it will be necessary to apply multivariate models, analyze time series data, research considering external environmental factors, and test the difference between start-up capabilities and performance considering detailed population characteristics.

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Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

The political implication of Malaysia's electoral authoritarian regime collapse: Focusing on the analysis of the 14th general election (말레이시아 선거권위주의 체제 붕괴의 정치적 함의 : 2018년 14대 총선을 중심으로)

  • HWANG, Inwon
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.213-261
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    • 2018
  • On May 9, 2018, regime change took place in Malaysia. It was the first regime change that took place in 61 years after independence in 1957. The regime change was an unexpected result not only in Malaysian experts but also in political circles. Moreover, the outcome of the election was more shocking because the opposition party was divided in this general election. The regime change in Malaysia was enough to attract worldwide attention because it meant the collapse of the oldest regime in the modern political system that exists, except North Korea and China. How could this have happened? In particular, how could the regime change, which had not been accomplished despite opposition parties' cooperation for almost 20 years, could be achieved with the divided opposition forces? What political implications does the 2018 general election result have for political change and democratization in Malaysia? How will the Malaysian politics be developed in the aftermath of the regime change? It is worth noting that during the process of finding answers, a series of general elections since the start of reformasi in 1998 tended to be likened to a series of "tsunami" in the Malaysian electoral history. This phenomenon of tsunami means that, even though very few predicted the possibility of regime change among academia, civil society and political circles, the regime change was not sudden. In other words, the regime in 2018 was the result of the desire and expectation of political change through a series of elections of Malaysian voters last 20 years. In this context, this study, in analyzing the results of the election in 2018, shows that the activation of electoral politics triggered by the reform movement in 1998, along with the specific situational factors in 2018, could lead to collapse of the ruling government for the first time since independence.

Development of Customer Sentiment Pattern Map for Webtoon Content Recommendation (웹툰 콘텐츠 추천을 위한 소비자 감성 패턴 맵 개발)

  • Lee, Junsik;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2019
  • Webtoon is a Korean-style digital comics platform that distributes comics content produced using the characteristic elements of the Internet in a form that can be consumed online. With the recent rapid growth of the webtoon industry and the exponential increase in the supply of webtoon content, the need for effective webtoon content recommendation measures is growing. Webtoons are digital content products that combine pictorial, literary and digital elements. Therefore, webtoons stimulate consumer sentiment by making readers have fun and engaging and empathizing with the situations in which webtoons are produced. In this context, it can be expected that the sentiment that webtoons evoke to consumers will serve as an important criterion for consumers' choice of webtoons. However, there is a lack of research to improve webtoons' recommendation performance by utilizing consumer sentiment. This study is aimed at developing consumer sentiment pattern maps that can support effective recommendations of webtoon content, focusing on consumer sentiments that have not been fully discussed previously. Metadata and consumer sentiments data were collected for 200 works serviced on the Korean webtoon platform 'Naver Webtoon' to conduct this study. 488 sentiment terms were collected for 127 works, excluding those that did not meet the purpose of the analysis. Next, similar or duplicate terms were combined or abstracted in accordance with the bottom-up approach. As a result, we have built webtoons specialized sentiment-index, which are reduced to a total of 63 emotive adjectives. By performing exploratory factor analysis on the constructed sentiment-index, we have derived three important dimensions for classifying webtoon types. The exploratory factor analysis was performed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using varimax factor rotation. The three dimensions were named 'Immersion', 'Touch' and 'Irritant' respectively. Based on this, K-Means clustering was performed and the entire webtoons were classified into four types. Each type was named 'Snack', 'Drama', 'Irritant', and 'Romance'. For each type of webtoon, we wrote webtoon-sentiment 2-Mode network graphs and looked at the characteristics of the sentiment pattern appearing for each type. In addition, through profiling analysis, we were able to derive meaningful strategic implications for each type of webtoon. First, The 'Snack' cluster is a collection of webtoons that are fast-paced and highly entertaining. Many consumers are interested in these webtoons, but they don't rate them well. Also, consumers mostly use simple expressions of sentiment when talking about these webtoons. Webtoons belonging to 'Snack' are expected to appeal to modern people who want to consume content easily and quickly during short travel time, such as commuting time. Secondly, webtoons belonging to 'Drama' are expected to evoke realistic and everyday sentiments rather than exaggerated and light comic ones. When consumers talk about webtoons belonging to a 'Drama' cluster in online, they are found to express a variety of sentiments. It is appropriate to establish an OSMU(One source multi-use) strategy to extend these webtoons to other content such as movies and TV series. Third, the sentiment pattern map of 'Irritant' shows the sentiments that discourage customer interest by stimulating discomfort. Webtoons that evoke these sentiments are hard to get public attention. Artists should pay attention to these sentiments that cause inconvenience to consumers in creating webtoons. Finally, Webtoons belonging to 'Romance' do not evoke a variety of consumer sentiments, but they are interpreted as touching consumers. They are expected to be consumed as 'healing content' targeted at consumers with high levels of stress or mental fatigue in their lives. The results of this study are meaningful in that it identifies the applicability of consumer sentiment in the areas of recommendation and classification of webtoons, and provides guidelines to help members of webtoons' ecosystem better understand consumers and formulate strategies.

Analysis of shopping website visit types and shopping pattern (쇼핑 웹사이트 탐색 유형과 방문 패턴 분석)

  • Choi, Kyungbin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.85-107
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    • 2019
  • Online consumers browse products belonging to a particular product line or brand for purchase, or simply leave a wide range of navigation without making purchase. The research on the behavior and purchase of online consumers has been steadily progressed, and related services and applications based on behavior data of consumers have been developed in practice. In recent years, customization strategies and recommendation systems of consumers have been utilized due to the development of big data technology, and attempts are being made to optimize users' shopping experience. However, even in such an attempt, it is very unlikely that online consumers will actually be able to visit the website and switch to the purchase stage. This is because online consumers do not just visit the website to purchase products but use and browse the websites differently according to their shopping motives and purposes. Therefore, it is important to analyze various types of visits as well as visits to purchase, which is important for understanding the behaviors of online consumers. In this study, we explored the clustering analysis of session based on click stream data of e-commerce company in order to explain diversity and complexity of search behavior of online consumers and typified search behavior. For the analysis, we converted data points of more than 8 million pages units into visit units' sessions, resulting in a total of over 500,000 website visit sessions. For each visit session, 12 characteristics such as page view, duration, search diversity, and page type concentration were extracted for clustering analysis. Considering the size of the data set, we performed the analysis using the Mini-Batch K-means algorithm, which has advantages in terms of learning speed and efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance similar to that of the clustering algorithm K-means. The most optimized number of clusters was derived from four, and the differences in session unit characteristics and purchasing rates were identified for each cluster. The online consumer visits the website several times and learns about the product and decides the purchase. In order to analyze the purchasing process over several visits of the online consumer, we constructed the visiting sequence data of the consumer based on the navigation patterns in the web site derived clustering analysis. The visit sequence data includes a series of visiting sequences until one purchase is made, and the items constituting one sequence become cluster labels derived from the foregoing. We have separately established a sequence data for consumers who have made purchases and data on visits for consumers who have only explored products without making purchases during the same period of time. And then sequential pattern mining was applied to extract frequent patterns from each sequence data. The minimum support is set to 10%, and frequent patterns consist of a sequence of cluster labels. While there are common derived patterns in both sequence data, there are also frequent patterns derived only from one side of sequence data. We found that the consumers who made purchases through the comparative analysis of the extracted frequent patterns showed the visiting pattern to decide to purchase the product repeatedly while searching for the specific product. The implication of this study is that we analyze the search type of online consumers by using large - scale click stream data and analyze the patterns of them to explain the behavior of purchasing process with data-driven point. Most studies that typology of online consumers have focused on the characteristics of the type and what factors are key in distinguishing that type. In this study, we carried out an analysis to type the behavior of online consumers, and further analyzed what order the types could be organized into one another and become a series of search patterns. In addition, online retailers will be able to try to improve their purchasing conversion through marketing strategies and recommendations for various types of visit and will be able to evaluate the effect of the strategy through changes in consumers' visit patterns.

Risk Factor Analysis and Surgical Indications for Pulmonary Artery Banding (폐동맥 밴딩의 위험인자 분석과 수술적응중)

  • Lee Jeong Ryul;Choi Chang Hyu;Min Sun Kyung;Kim Woong Han;Kim Yong Jin;Rho Joon Ryang;Bae Eun Jung;Noh Chung I1;Yun Yong Soo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.38 no.8 s.253
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    • pp.538-544
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    • 2005
  • Background: Pulmonary artery banding (PAB) is an initial palliative procedure for a diverse group of patients with congenital cardiac anomalies and unrestricted pulmonary blood flow. We proved the usefulness of PAB through retrospective investigation of the surgical indication and risk analysis retrospectively. Material and Method: One hundred and fifty four consecutive patients (99 males and 55 females) who underwent PAB between January 1986 and December 2003 were included. We analysed the risk factors for early mortality and actuarial survival rate. Mean age was $2.5\pm12.8\;(0.2\sim92.7)$ months and mean weight was $4.5\pm2.7\;(0.9\sim18.0)\;kg$. Preoperative diagnosis included functional single ventricle $(88,\;57.1\%)$, double outlet right ventricle $(22,\;14.2\%)$, transposition of the great arteries $(26,\;16.8\%)$, and atrioventricular septal defect $(11,\;7.1\%)$. Coarctation of the aorta or interrupted aortic arch $(32,\;20.7\%)$, subaortic stenosis $(13,\;8.4\%)$ and total anomalous pulmonary venous connection $(13,\;8.4\%)$ were associated. Result: The overall early mortality was $22.1\%\;(34\;of\;154)$, The recent series from 1996 include patients with lower age $(3.8\pm15.9\;vs.\;1.5\pm12.7,\;p=0.04)$ and lower body weight $(4.8\pm3.1\;vs.\;4.0\pm2.7,\;p=0.02)$. The early mortality was lower in the recent group $(17.5\%;\;16/75)$ than the earlier group $(28.5\%;\;18/45)$. Aortic arch anomaly (p=0.004), subaortic stenosis (p=0.004), operation for subaortic stenosis (p=0.007), and cardiopulmonary bypass (p=0.007) were proven to be risk factors for early death in univariate analysis, while time of surgery (<1996) (p=0.026) was the only significant risk factor in multivariate analysis. The mean time interval from PAB to the second-stage operation was $12.8\pm10.9$ months. Among 96 patients who survived PAB, 40 patients completed Fontan operation, 21 patients underwent bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt, and 35 patients underwent biventricular repair including 25 arterial switch operations. Median follow-up was $40.1\pm48.9$ months. Overall survival rates at 1 year, 5 years and 10 years were $81.2\%\;65.0\%,\;and\;63.5\%$ respectively. Conclusion: Although it improved in recent series, early mortality was still high despite the advances in perioperative management. As for conventional indications, early primary repair may be more beneficial. However, PA banding still has a role in the initial palliative step in selective groups.

A Study on Microclimate Change Via Time Series Analysis of Satellite Images -Centered on Dalseo District, Daegu City- (위성영상의 시계열 분석을 통한 미기후변화 분석 -대구시 달서구를 대상으로-)

  • Baek, Sang-Hun;Jung, Eung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2009
  • Based on previous research on ways of reducing an urban heat island phenomenon via an introduction of wind corridors, I conducted this study to see what influence a change in land cover arising of or going through urbanization has on wind corridors of urban space. As a target place, I chose Daegu city where is a representative extreme heat place in Korea and has been also largely expanded in size by incorporating its neighboring areas since the 1980s, expecially Dalseo District whose surface temperature gap is large. The population of Dalseo District has been sharply increased since its creation as a new administrative district in 1988. I studied on the urban microclimate change for a 20-year period by using satellite images on summer months in 1987, 1997 and 2007 in time frames. The finding of this study found that a reduction of natural land cover and an increase of artificial land cover serves as a disadvantageous factor for cold air creation and flowing and strikingly lowers the amount and height of cold air in the downtown area. It seemed that the cold air creation and flowing functions are influenced by land cover. In order to steadily create cold air and secure its flowing, it is thought that urban development or urban regeneration should be implemented by analysing the characteristics of the space surrounding the city. By doing so, a pleasant and healthy city could be formed.

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Numerical analysis of water flow characteristics after inrushing from the tunnel floor in process of karst tunnel excavation

  • Li, S.C.;Wu, J.;Xu, Z.H.;Li, L.P.;Huang, X.;Xue, Y.G.;Wang, Z.C.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.471-526
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    • 2016
  • In order to investigate water flow characteristics after inrushing in process of karst tunnel excavation, numerical simulations for five case studies of water inrush from the tunnel floor are carried out by using the FLUENT software on the background of Qiyueshan high risk karst tunnel. Firstly, the velocity-distance curves and pressure-distance curves are drawn by selecting a series of probing lines in a plane. Then, the variation characteristics of velocity and pressure are analyzed and the respective optimized escape routes are made. Finally, water flow characteristics after inrushing from the tunnel floor are discussed and summarized by comparing case studies under the conditions of different water-inrush positions and excavation situations. The results show that: (1) Tunnel constructors should first move to the tunnel side wall and then escape quickly when water inrush happens. (2) Tunnel constructors must not stay at the intersection area of the cross passage and tunnels when escaping. (3) When water inrush from floor happens in the left tunnel, if tunnel constructors meet the cross passage during escaping, they should pass through it rapidly, turn to the right tunnel and run to the entrance. (4) When water inrush from floor happens in the left tunnel, if there is not enough time to escape, tunnel constructors can run to the trolley and other equipment in the vicinity of the right tunnel working face. In addition, some rescuing equipment can be set up at the high location of the cross passage. (5) When water inrush from floor happens in the cross passage, tunnel constructors should move to the tunnel side wall quickly, turn to the tunnel without water inrush and run to the entrance. (6) When water inrush from floor happens in the cross passage, if there is not enough time to escape, tunnel constructors can run to the trolley and other equipment near by the left or the right tunnel working face. The results are of important practical significance and engineering value to ensure the safety of tunnel construction.

A study on a tendency of parameters for nonstationary distribution using ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용한 비정상성 확률분포형의 매개변수 추세 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Taereem;Shin, Hongjoon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2017
  • A lot of nonstationary frequency analyses have been studied in recent years as the nonstationarity occurs in hydrologic time series data. In nonstationary frequency analysis, various forms of probability distributions have been proposed to consider the time-dependent statistical characteristics of nonstationary data, and various methods for parameter estimation also have been studied. In this study, we aim to introduce a parameter estimation method for nonstationary Gumbel distribution using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD); and to compare the results with the method of maximum likelihood. Annual maximum rainfall data with a trend observed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was applied. As a result, both EEMD and the method of maximum likelihood selected an appropriate nonstationary Gumbel distribution for linear trend data, while the EEMD selected more appropriate nonstationary Gumbel distribution than the method of maximum likelihood for quadratic trend data.

Age Dependent Behaviors of Composite Girders Subjected to Concrete Shrinkage and Creep (건조수축과 크리프에 의한 합성형 거더의 재령종속적 거동)

  • Ahn, Sung-Soo;Sung, Won-Jin;Kang, Byeong-Su;Lee, Yong-Hak
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.1 s.91
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2006
  • An incremental approach to predict the time dependent flexural behavior of composite girder is presented in the framework of incremental finite element method. Age dependent nature of creep, shrinkage, and maturing of elastic modulus of concrete is prescribed in the incremental tangent description of constitutive relation derived based on the first order Taylor series expansion applying to the total from of stress-strain relation. The loop phenomenon in which age dependent nature of concrete causes stress redistribution and it causes creep in turn is taken into account in the formulation through the incremental representation of constitutive relation. The developed algorithm predicts the time dependent deflections of 4.8m long two span double composite box girder subjected to shrinkage, maturing of elastic modulus, and creep initially induced by self weight. Comparison shows a good agreement between the predicted and measured results.