• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series analysis

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Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

A Comparison between Multiple Satellite AOD Products Using AERONET Sun Photometer Observations in South Korea: Case Study of MODIS,VIIRS, Himawari-8, and Sentinel-3 (우리나라에서 AERONET 태양광도계 자료를 이용한 다종위성 AOD 산출물 비교평가: MODIS, VIIRS, Himawari-8, Sentinel-3의 사례연구)

  • Kim, Seoyeon;Jeong, Yemin;Youn, Youjeong;Cho, Subin;Kang, Jonggu;Kim, Geunah;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.543-557
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    • 2021
  • Because aerosols have different spectral characteristics according to the size and composition of the particle and to the satellite sensors, a comparative analysis of aerosol products from various satellite sensors is required. In South Korea, however, a comprehensive study for the comparison of various official satellite AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) products for a long period is not easily found. In this paper, we aimed to assess the performance of the AOD products from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite), Himawari-8, and Sentinel-3 by referring to the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sun photometer observations for the period between January 2015 and December 2019. Seasonal and geographical characteristics of the accuracy of satellite AOD were also analyzed. The MODIS products, which were accumulated for a long time and optimized by the new MAIAC (Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) algorithm, showed the best accuracy (CC=0.836) and were followed by the products from VIIRS and Himawari-8. On the other hand, Sentinel-3 AOD did not appear to have a good quality because it was recently launched and not sufficiently optimized yet, according to ESA (European Space Agency). The AOD of MODIS, VIIRS, and Himawari-8 did not show a significant difference in accuracy according to season and to urban vs. non-urban regions, but the mixed pixel problem was partly found in a few coastal regions. Because AOD is an essential component for atmospheric correction, the result of this study can be a reference to the future work for the atmospheric correction for the Korean CAS (Compact Advanced Satellite) series.

A Study on the Change of Road in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden between Modern and Contemporary Period (근현대기 창덕궁 후원의 동선 변화에 관한 연구)

  • HA, Taeil;KIM, Choongsik
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.120-135
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    • 2021
  • Changdeokgung Rear Garden is an important place to show the essence of the garden culture of the Joseon Dynasty. In the garden landscape experience, the restoration of the road completes the system of connecting the main spaces. Therefore, the restoration of the road requires accurate understanding of its creation, extinction, and maintenance. The purpose of this study was to detail the changes in the path that occurred in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden from the late Joseon Dynasty to the modern and contemporary period by analyzing literature and drawing materials. For a time-series analysis, "Donggwoldo" and "Donggwoldohyeong" produced in the Joseon Dynasty, along with "Changdeokgung Plan Drawing" produced in modern and contemporary times, and aerial photographs were used. Drawings and photographs of different coordinate systems were transformed into one coordinate system in the geographic information system ArcGIS to compare changes in the movements of different periods. The results of the study are as follows. First, a total of 37 sections have been used since Japanese colonial era, of which 13 have been maintained, 14 have disappeared, and 10 have been newly established. Among the extinction sections, the road north of Neungheojeong Pavilion is considered to be an urgent place to connect the space to the garden and restore it to enjoy the scenery. In the new section, it seems necessary to establish a new alternative road or shorten the section for the connecting section between Daebodan and Okryucheon. Second, it was revealed that the biggest and most frequent changes to the road system in the garden were Japanese colonial era and renovations in the 1970s. It is worth noting the changes in the road since the 1970s, rather than Japanese colonial era, where it was difficult to manage the gardens independently. The access road to Okryucheon remained in its original shape until the 1990s, but it was renovated to its current shape due to misperception of the original shape. A project is needed to find out the cause of the change in this period and restore the damaged original shape. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the garden path of Changdeokgung Palace in modern and contemporary times. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the road of Changdeokgung Palace Rear Gardens in modern and contemporary times. However, there is a limitation that it has not been able to clearly present the location and shape that should be restored because it has not found data on landscaping plans or maintenance. In order to restore the road using the data revealed in this study, it seems necessary to consider realistic problems such as current space utilization, viewing system, disaster prevention and maintenance.

Retrieval of Oceanic Skin Sea Surface Temperature using Infrared Sea Surface Temperature Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR) Radiance Measurements (적외선 라디오미터 관측 자료를 활용한 해양 피층 수온 산출)

  • Kim, Hee-Young;Park, Kyung-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.617-629
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    • 2020
  • Sea surface temperature (SST), which plays an important role in climate change and global environmental change, can be divided into skin sea surface temperature (SSST) observed by satellite infrared sensors and the bulk temperature of sea water (BSST) measured by instruments. As sea surface temperature products distributed by many overseas institutions represent temperatures at different depths, it is essential to understand the relationship between the SSST and the BSST. In this study, we constructed an observation system of infrared radiometer onboard a marine research vessel for the first time in Korea to measure the SSST. The calibration coefficients were prepared by performing the calibration procedure of the radiometer device in the laboratory prior to the shipborne observation. A series of processes were applied to calculate the temperature of the layer of radiance emitted from the sea surface as well as that from the sky. The differences in skin-bulk temperatures were investigated quantitatively and the characteristics of the vertical structure of temperatures in the upper ocean were understood through comparison with Himawari-8 geostationary satellite SSTs. Comparison of the skin-bulk temperature differences illustrated overall differences of about 0.76℃ at Jangmok port in the southern coast and the offshore region of the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula from 21 April to May 6, 2020. In addition, the root-mean-square error of the skin-bulk temperature differences showed daily variation from 0.6℃ to 0.9℃, with the largest difference of 0.83-0.89℃ at 1-3 KST during the daytime and the smallest difference of 0.59℃ at 15 KST. The bias also revealed clear diurnal variation at a range of 0.47-0.75℃. The difference between the observed skin sea surface temperature and the satellite sea surface temperature showed a mean square error of approximately 0.74℃ and a bias of 0.37℃. The analysis of this study confirmed the difference in the skin-bulk temperatures according to the observation depth. This suggests that further ocean shipborne infrared radiometer observations should be carried out continuously in the offshore regions to understand diurnal variation as well as seasonal variations of the skin-bulk SSTs and their relations to potential causes.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Analysis of the effect of long-term water supply improvement by the installation of sand dams in water scarce areas (물부족 지역에서 샌드댐 설치에 의한 장기 물공급 개선 효과 분석)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.999-1009
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    • 2022
  • The Chuncheon Mullori area is an underprivileged area for water welfare that does not have a local water supply system. Here, water is supplied to the village by using a small-scale water supply facility that uses underground water and underground water as the source. To solve the problem of water shortage during drought and to prepare for the increasing water demand, a sand dam was installed near the valley river, and this facility has been operating since May 2022. In this study, in order to evaluate the reliability of water supply when a sand dam is assumed during a drought in the past, groundwater runoff simulation results using MODFLOW were used to generate inflow data from 2011 to 2020, an unmeasured period. After performing SWAT-K basin hydrologic modeling for the watershed upstream of the existing water intake source and the sand dam, the groundwater runoff was calculated, and the relative ratio of the monthly groundwater runoff for the previous 10 years to the monthly groundwater runoff in 2021 was obtained. By applying this ratio to the 2021 inflow time series data, historical inflow data from 2011 to 2020 were generated. As a result of analyzing the availability of water supply during extreme drought in the past for three cases of demand 20 m3/day, 50 m3/day, and 100 m3/day, it can be confirmed that the reliability of water supply increases with the installation of sand dams. In the case of 100 m3/day, it was analyzed that the reliability exceeded 90% only when the existing water intake source and the sand dam were operated in conjunction. All three operating conditions were evaluated to satisfy 50 m3/day or more of demand based on 95% reliability of water supply and 30 m3/day or more of demand based on 99% of reliability.

Zeolitization of the Dacitic Tuff in the Miocene Janggi Basin, SE Korea (장기분지 데사이트질 응회암의 불석화작용)

  • Kim, Jinju;Jeong, Jong Ok;Shinn, Young-Jae;Sohn, Young Kwan
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2022
  • Dacitic tuffs, 97 to 118 m thick, were recovered from the lower part of the subsurface Seongdongri Formation, Janggi Basin, which was drilled to assess the potential for underground storage of carbon dioxide. The tuffs are divided into four depositional units(Unit 1 to 4) based on internal structures and particle componentry. Unit 1 and Units 3/4 are ignimbrites that accumulated in subaerial and subaqueous settings, respectively, whereas Unit 2 is braided-stream deposits that accumulated during a volcanic quiescence, and no dacitic tuff is observed. A series of analysis shows that mordenite and clinoptilolite mainly fill the vesicles of glass shards, suggesting their formation by replacement and dissolution of volcanic glass and precipitation from interstitial water during burial and diagenesis. Glass-replaced clinoptilolite has higher Si/Al ratios and Na contents than the vesicle-filling clinoptilolite in Units 3. However, the composition of clinoptilolite becomes identical in Unit 4, irrespective of the occurrence and location. This suggests that the Si/Al ratio and pH in the interstitial water increased with time because of the replacement and leaching of volcanic glass, and that the composition of interstitial water was different between the eastern and western parts of the basin during the formation of the clinoptilolite in Units 1 and 3. It is also inferred that the formation of the two zeolite minerals was sequential according to the depositional units, i.e., the clinoptilolite formed after the growth of mordenite. To summarize, during a volcanic quiescence after the deposition of Unit 1, pH was higher in the western part of the basin because of eastward tilting of the basin floor, and the zeolite ceased to grow because of the closure of the pore space as a result of the growth of smectite. On the other hand, clinoptilolite could grow in the eastern part of the basin in an open system affected by groundwater, where braided stream was developed. Afterwards, Units 3 and 4 were submerged under water because of the basin subsidence, and the alkali content of the interstitial water increased gradually, eventually becoming identical in the eastern and western parts of the basin. This study thus shows that volcanic deposits of similar composition can have variable distribution of zeolite mineral depending on the drainage and depositional environment of basins.

Estimation of Fractional Urban Tree Canopy Cover through Machine Learning Using Optical Satellite Images (기계학습을 이용한 광학 위성 영상 기반의 도시 내 수목 피복률 추정)

  • Sejeong Bae ;Bokyung Son ;Taejun Sung ;Yeonsu Lee ;Jungho Im ;Yoojin Kang
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.1009-1029
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    • 2023
  • Urban trees play a vital role in urban ecosystems,significantly reducing impervious surfaces and impacting carbon cycling within the city. Although previous research has demonstrated the efficacy of employing artificial intelligence in conjunction with airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to generate urban tree information, the availability and cost constraints associated with LiDAR data pose limitations. Consequently, this study employed freely accessible, high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery (i.e., Sentinel-2 data) to estimate fractional tree canopy cover (FTC) within the urban confines of Suwon, South Korea, employing machine learning techniques. This study leveraged a median composite image derived from a time series of Sentinel-2 images. In order to account for the diverse land cover found in urban areas, the model incorporated three types of input variables: average (mean) and standard deviation (std) values within a 30-meter grid from 10 m resolution of optical indices from Sentinel-2, and fractional coverage for distinct land cover classes within 30 m grids from the existing level 3 land cover map. Four schemes with different combinations of input variables were compared. Notably, when all three factors (i.e., mean, std, and fractional cover) were used to consider the variation of landcover in urban areas(Scheme 4, S4), the machine learning model exhibited improved performance compared to using only the mean of optical indices (Scheme 1). Of the various models proposed, the random forest (RF) model with S4 demonstrated the most remarkable performance, achieving R2 of 0.8196, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0749, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.1022. The std variable exhibited the highest impact on model outputs within the heterogeneous land covers based on the variable importance analysis. This trained RF model with S4 was then applied to the entire Suwon region, consistently delivering robust results with an R2 of 0.8702, MAE of 0.0873, and RMSE of 0.1335. The FTC estimation method developed in this study is expected to offer advantages for application in various regions, providing fundamental data for a better understanding of carbon dynamics in urban ecosystems in the future.

A Comparison of the Designation Characteristics of Korean Scenic Sites Policies and National Park System in the United States (국내 명승 정책과 미국 국립공원 시스템의 지정 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Won-Ho;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Janet, R. Balsom
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2020
  • This study examined the definition and major values, the designated procedures and types, and the designation trend in Korean scenic sites and national parks in the United States. Based on this, the analysis of the characteristics of the designation of the two natural heritages. The results are as follows; First, Scenic Sites has characteristics of complex heritage that includes academic, historical, and humanities values on the basis of landscape. As a natural heritage based on public nature, the U.S. National Park aims to contribute to the people's natural heritage and satisfy both ecological and historical values through the protection of the landscape. Second, the designation of a scenic sites are decided through deliberation by the Cultural Heritage Committee after the request of the owner, manager, or local government or by the authority of the head of the Cultural Heritage Administration. The designated survey is divided into basic resource surveys and resource surveys by type. Since the initial designation of the Sogeumgang Mountain in Cheonghakdong, Myeongju in 1970, the number of designated scenic sites was low until the 2000s, but the number of designated scenic sites has increased rapidly since 2006 due to the policy to promote the scenic site, and the proportion of natural and historical and cultural scenic sites has been balanced. The designation of the U.S. national park is decided by the Congress or the president, and the National Park Service makes a series of decisions on whether to conduct a special resource study of provisional resources through a preliminary inspection survey, whether to satisfy the criteria for designation of national parks based on the results of special resource research, and to prioritize them. The U.S. National Parks have been expanded not only by Congress but also by the president's empowerment to designate them as national monuments. With the integrated operation of the National Park Service, the number of designated cases increased as the national park included the heritage sites under the control of various ministries. In addition, a number of historical areas were designated by the enactment of the Historical Site Act, and recreational areas were designated to provide leisure space and classified and managed in a total of 18 units. Third, the comparison of the designation characteristics of the two heritage properties confirmed that the designation of natural heritage with complex value, the classification of types according to complementary designation system and resource characteristics, the establishment of the competent ministry and the balancing of the heritage according to the designation policy. The two heritages had the characteristics of complex natural heritages that met ecological, historical and academic values at the same time based on landscape and public nature. In addition, both countries have identified a system for deliberating the designation of heritage through a basic resource survey and an in-depth designation survey, and classified each type according to the characteristics of the resource. In addition, the policies for promoting scenic sites in Korea and the integrated operation of the National Park Service in the U.S. influenced the designated aspects of the two heritage sites, balancing natural heritage with historical and cultural heritage. Fourth, the resource types and conservation management methods of Scenic site and National Park were largely related. The natural areas of the U.S. National Park include types of natural monuments in Korea as major resources, and have characteristics similar to natural scenic sites. In addition, historical resources were similar to the criteria for designation of historical and cultural scenic sites in terms of landscape, and the aspects of war and celebrity-related relics were related to the types of historic sites. In terms of conservation management, the natural area of the U.S. national park has a way of keeping the original ecosystem intact, but the Korean natural heritage protection system is likely to be useful for focusing on the resource of viscosity. Meanwhile, historical resources include historical sites and historical and cultural scenic sites in the traditional era, but historical relics in the U.S. National Parks have set a time limit to modern times for war history and celebrity-related relics, and the active provision of entertainment programs based on existing resources was derived as a difference.

Facile [11C]PIB Synthesis Using an On-cartridge Methylation and Purification Showed Higher Specific Activity than Conventional Method Using Loop and High Performance Liquid Chromatography Purification (Loop와 HPLC Purification 방법보다 더 높은 비방사능을 보여주는 카트리지 Methylation과 Purification을 이용한 손쉬운 [ 11C]PIB 합성)

  • Lee, Yong-Seok;Cho, Yong-Hyun;Lee, Hong-Jae;Lee, Yun-Sang;Jeong, Jae Min
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2018
  • $[^{11}C]PIB$ synthesis has been performed by a loop-methylation and HPLC purification in our lab. However, this method is time-consuming and requires complicated systems. Thus, we developed an on-cartridge method which simplified the synthetic procedure and reduced time greatly by removing HPLC purification step. We compared 6 different cartridges and evaluated the $[^{11}C]PIB$ production yields and specific activities. $[^{11}C]MeOTf$ was synthesized by using TRACERlab FXC Pro and was transferred into the cartridge by blowing with helium gas for 3 min. To remove byproducts and impurities, cartridges were washed out by 20 mL of 30% EtOH in 0.5 M $NaH_2PO_4$ solution (pH 5.1) and 10 mL of distilled water. And then, $[^{11}C]PIB$ was eluted by 5 mL of 30% EtOH in 0.5 M $NaH_2PO_4$ into the collecting vial containing 10 mL saline. Among the 6 cartridges, only tC18 environmental cartridge could remove impurities and byproducts from $[^{11}C]PIB$ completely and showed higher specific activity than traditional HPLC purification method. This method took only 8 ~ 9 min from methylation to formulation. For the tC18 environmental cartridge and conventional HPLC loop methods, the radiochemical yields were $12.3{\pm}2.2%$ and $13.9{\pm}4.4%$, respectively, and the molar activities were $420.6{\pm}20.4GBq/{\mu}mol$ (n=3) and $78.7{\pm}39.7GBq/{\mu}mol$ (n=41), respectively. We successfully developed a facile on-cartridge methylation method for $[^{11}C]PIB$ synthesis which enabled the procedure more simple and rapid, and showed higher molar radio-activity than HPLC purification method.