• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time prediction

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Study on Standardization of the Environmental Impact Evaluation Method of Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields near High Voltage Overhead Transmission Lines (고압 가공송전선로의 극저주파자기장 환경영향평가 방법 표준화에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Ae;Jung, Joonsig;Choi, Taebong;Jeong, Minjoo;Kim, Bu-Kyung;Lee, Jongchun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.658-673
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    • 2018
  • Social conflicts with extremely low frequency magnetic field(ELF-MF) exposures are expected to exacerbate due to continued increase in electric power demand and construction of high voltage transmission lines(HVTL). However, in current environmental impact assessment(EIA) act, specific guidelines have not been included concretely about EIA of ELF-MF. Therefore, this study conducted a standardization study on EIA method through case analysis, field measurement, and expert consultation of the EIA for the ELF-MF near HVTL which is the main cause of exposures. The status of the EIA of the ELF-MF and the problem to be improved are derived and the EIA method which can solve it is suggested. The main contents of the study is that the physical characteristics of the ELF-MF affected by distance and powerload should be considered at all stages of EIA(survey of the current situation - Prediction of the impacts - preparation of mitigation plan ? post EIA planning). Based on this study, we also suggested the 'Measurement method for extremely low frequency magnetic field on transmission line' and 'Table for extremely low frequency magnetic field measurement record on transmission line'. The results of this study can be applied to the EIA that minimizes the damage and conflict to the construction of transmission line and derives rational measures at the present time when the human hazard to long term exposure of the ELF-MF is unclear.

Conditional Generative Adversarial Network based Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System (Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(CGAN) 기반 협업 필터링 추천 시스템)

  • Kang, Soyi;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2021
  • With the development of information technology, the amount of available information increases daily. However, having access to so much information makes it difficult for users to easily find the information they seek. Users want a visualized system that reduces information retrieval and learning time, saving them from personally reading and judging all available information. As a result, recommendation systems are an increasingly important technologies that are essential to the business. Collaborative filtering is used in various fields with excellent performance because recommendations are made based on similar user interests and preferences. However, limitations do exist. Sparsity occurs when user-item preference information is insufficient, and is the main limitation of collaborative filtering. The evaluation value of the user item matrix may be distorted by the data depending on the popularity of the product, or there may be new users who have not yet evaluated the value. The lack of historical data to identify consumer preferences is referred to as data sparsity, and various methods have been studied to address these problems. However, most attempts to solve the sparsity problem are not optimal because they can only be applied when additional data such as users' personal information, social networks, or characteristics of items are included. Another problem is that real-world score data are mostly biased to high scores, resulting in severe imbalances. One cause of this imbalance distribution is the purchasing bias, in which only users with high product ratings purchase products, so those with low ratings are less likely to purchase products and thus do not leave negative product reviews. Due to these characteristics, unlike most users' actual preferences, reviews by users who purchase products are more likely to be positive. Therefore, the actual rating data is over-learned in many classes with high incidence due to its biased characteristics, distorting the market. Applying collaborative filtering to these imbalanced data leads to poor recommendation performance due to excessive learning of biased classes. Traditional oversampling techniques to address this problem are likely to cause overfitting because they repeat the same data, which acts as noise in learning, reducing recommendation performance. In addition, pre-processing methods for most existing data imbalance problems are designed and used for binary classes. Binary class imbalance techniques are difficult to apply to multi-class problems because they cannot model multi-class problems, such as objects at cross-class boundaries or objects overlapping multiple classes. To solve this problem, research has been conducted to convert and apply multi-class problems to binary class problems. However, simplification of multi-class problems can cause potential classification errors when combined with the results of classifiers learned from other sub-problems, resulting in loss of important information about relationships beyond the selected items. Therefore, it is necessary to develop more effective methods to address multi-class imbalance problems. We propose a collaborative filtering model using CGAN to generate realistic virtual data to populate the empty user-item matrix. Conditional vector y identify distributions for minority classes and generate data reflecting their characteristics. Collaborative filtering then maximizes the performance of the recommendation system via hyperparameter tuning. This process should improve the accuracy of the model by addressing the sparsity problem of collaborative filtering implementations while mitigating data imbalances arising from real data. Our model has superior recommendation performance over existing oversampling techniques and existing real-world data with data sparsity. SMOTE, Borderline SMOTE, SVM-SMOTE, ADASYN, and GAN were used as comparative models and we demonstrate the highest prediction accuracy on the RMSE and MAE evaluation scales. Through this study, oversampling based on deep learning will be able to further refine the performance of recommendation systems using actual data and be used to build business recommendation systems.

Kriging of Daily PM10 Concentration from the Air Korea Stations Nationwide and the Accuracy Assessment (베리오그램 최적화 기반의 정규크리깅을 이용한 전국 에어코리아 PM10 자료의 일평균 격자지도화 및 내삽정확도 검증)

  • Jeong, Yemin;Cho, Subin;Youn, Youjeong;Kim, Seoyeon;Kim, Geunah;Kang, Jonggu;Lee, Dalgeun;Chung, Euk;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2021
  • Air pollution data in South Korea is provided on a real-time basis by Air Korea stations since 2005. Previous studies have shown the feasibility of gridding air pollution data, but they were confined to a few cities. This paper examines the creation of nationwide gridded maps for PM10 concentration using 333 Air Korea stations with variogram optimization and ordinary kriging. The accuracy of the spatial interpolation was evaluated by various sampling schemes to avoid a too dense or too sparse distribution of the validation points. Using the 114,745 matchups, a four-round blind test was conducted by extracting random validation points for every 365 days in 2019. The overall accuracy was stably high with the MAE of 5.697 ㎍/m3 and the CC of 0.947. Approximately 1,500 cases for high PM10 concentration also showed a result with the MAE of about 12 ㎍/m3 and the CC over 0.87, which means that the proposed method was effective and applicable to various situations. The gridded maps for daily PM10 concentration at the resolution of 0.05° also showed a reasonable spatial distribution, which can be used as an input variable for a gridded prediction of tomorrow's PM10 concentration.

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

Extraction of Water Body Area using Micro Satellite SAR: A Case Study of the Daecheng Dam of South korea (초소형 SAR 위성을 활용한 수체면적 추출: 대청댐 유역 대상)

  • PARK, Jongsoo;KANG, Ki-Mook;HWANG, Eui-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2021
  • It is very essential to estimate the water body area using remote exploration for water resource management, analysis and prediction of water disaster damage. Hydrophysical detection using satellites has been mainly performed on large satellites equipped with optical and SAR sensors. However, due to the long repeat cycle, there is a limitation that timely utilization is impossible in the event of a disaster/disaster. With the recent active development of Micro satellites, it has served as an opportunity to overcome the limitations of time resolution centered on existing large satellites. The Micro satellites currently in active operation are ICEYE in Finland and Capella satellites in the United States, and are operated in the form of clusters for earth observation purposes. Due to clustering operation, it has a short revisit cycle and high resolution and has the advantage of being able to observe regardless of weather or day and night with the SAR sensor mounted. In this study, the operation status and characteristics of micro satellites were described, and the water area estimation technology optimized for micro SAR satellite images was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, accuracy verification was performed based on the reference value of the water generated from the optical satellite Sentinel-2 satellite as a reference. In the case of the Capella satellite, the smallest difference in area was shown, and it was confirmed that all three images showed high correlation. Through the results of this study, it was confirmed that despite the low NESZ of Micro satellites, it is possible to estimate the water area, and it is believed that the limitations of water resource/water disaster monitoring using existing large SAR satellites can be overcome.

Prediction of patent lifespan and analysis of influencing factors using machine learning (기계학습을 활용한 특허수명 예측 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Yongwoo;Kim, Min Gu;Kim, Young-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.147-170
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    • 2022
  • Although the number of patent which is one of the core outputs of technological innovation continues to increase, the number of low-value patents also hugely increased. Therefore, efficient evaluation of patents has become important. Estimation of patent lifespan which represents private value of a patent, has been studied for a long time, but in most cases it relied on a linear model. Even if machine learning methods were used, interpretation or explanation of the relationship between explanatory variables and patent lifespan was insufficient. In this study, patent lifespan (number of renewals) is predicted based on the idea that patent lifespan represents the value of the patent. For the research, 4,033,414 patents applied between 1996 and 2017 and finally granted were collected from USPTO (US Patent and Trademark Office). To predict the patent lifespan, we use variables that can reflect the characteristics of the patent, the patent owner's characteristics, and the inventor's characteristics. We build four different models (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Feed Forward Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Models) and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold Cross Validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated, and the relative importance of predictors is also presented. In addition, based on the Gradient Boosting Model which have excellent performance, Accumulated Local Effects Plot is presented to visualize the relationship between predictors and patent lifespan. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the evaluation reason of individual patents, and discuss applicability to the patent evaluation system. This study has academic significance in that it cumulatively contributes to the existing patent life estimation research and supplements the limitations of existing patent life estimation studies based on linearity. It is academically meaningful that this study contributes cumulatively to the existing studies which estimate patent lifespan, and that it supplements the limitations of linear models. Also, it is practically meaningful to suggest a method for deriving the evaluation basis for individual patent value and examine the applicability to patent evaluation systems.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

Seeking for a Curriculum of Dance Department in the University in the Age of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4차 산업혁명시대 대학무용학과 커리큘럼의 방향모색)

  • Baek, Hyun-Soon;Yoo, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 2019
  • This study focuses on what changes are required as to a curriculum of dance department in the university in the age of the 4th industrial revolution. By comparing and analyzing the curricula of dance department in the five universities in Seoul, five academic subjects as to curricula of dance department, which covers what to learn for dance education in the age of the 4th industrial revolution, are presented. First, dance integrative education, the integration of creativity and science education, can be referred to as a subject that stimulates ideas and creativity and raises artistic sensitivity based on STEAM. Second, the curriculum characterized by prediction of the future prospect through Big Data can be utilized well in dealing with dance performance, career path of dance-majoring people, and job creation by analyzing public opinion, evaluation, and feelings. Third, video education. Seeing the images as modern major media tends to occupy most of the expressive area of art, dance by dint of video enables existing dance work to be created as new form of art, expanding dance boundaries in academic and performing art viewpoint. Fourth, VR and AR are essential techniques in the era of smart media. Whether upcoming dance studies are in the form of performance or education or industry, for VR and AR to be digitally applied into every relevant field, keeping with the time, learning about VR and AR is indispensable. Last, the 4th industrial revolution and the curriculum of dance art are needed to foresee the changes in the 4th industrial revolution and to educate changes, development and seeking in dance curriculum.

A prediction study on the number of emergency patients with ASTHMA according to the concentration of air pollutants (대기오염물질 농도에 따른 천식 응급환자 수 예측 연구)

  • Han Joo Lee;Min Kyu Jee;Cheong Won Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2023
  • Due to the development of industry, interest in air pollutants has increased. Air pollutants have affected various fields such as environmental pollution and global warming. Among them, environmental diseases are one of the fields affected by air pollutants. Air pollutants can affect the human body's skin or respiratory tract due to their small molecular size. As a result, various studies on air pollutants and environmental diseases have been conducted. Asthma, part of an environmental disease, can be life-threatening if symptoms worsen and cause asthma attacks, and in the case of adult asthma, it is difficult to cure once it occurs. Factors that worsen asthma include particulate matter and air pollution. Asthma is an increasing prevalence worldwide. In this paper, we study how air pollutants correlate with the number of emergency room admissions in asthma patients and predict the number of future asthma emergency patients using highly correlated air pollutants. Air pollutants used concentrations of five pollutants: sulfur dioxide(SO2), carbon monoxide(CO), ozone(O3), nitrogen dioxide(NO2), and fine dust(PM10), and environmental diseases used data on the number of hospitalizations of asthma patients in the emergency room. Data on the number of emergency patients of air pollutants and asthma were used for a total of 5 years from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. The model made predictions using two models, Informer and LTSF-Linear, and performance indicators of MAE, MAPE, and RMSE were used to measure the performance of the model. The results were compared by making predictions for both cases including and not including the number of emergency patients. This paper presents air pollutants that improve the model's performance in predicting the number of asthma emergency patients using Informer and LTSF-Linear models.