• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time prediction

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Microbiological Quality of Agricultural Water in Jeollabuk-do and the Population Changes of Pathogenic Escherichia Coli O157:H7 in Agricultural Water Depending on Temperature and Water Quality (전라북도 지역 농업용수의 미생물학적 특성 및 온도와 수질에 따른 농업용수의 병원성대장균 O157:H7 밀도 변화)

  • Hwang, Injun;Ham, Hyeonheui;Park, Daesoo;Chae, Hyobeen;Kim, Se-Ri;Kim, Hwang-Yong;Kim, Hyun Ju;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.254-261
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: Agricultural water is known to be one of the major routes in bacterial contamination of fresh vegetable. However, there is a lack of fundamental data on the microbial safety of agricultural water in Korea. METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated the density of indicator bacteria in the surface water samples from 31 sites collected in April, July, and October 2018, while the groundwater samples were collected from 20 sites within Jeollabuk-do in April and July 2018. In surface water, the mean density of coliform, fecal coliform, and Escherichia coli was 2.7±0.55, 1.9±0.71, and 1.4±0.58 log CFU/100 mL, respectively, showing the highest bacterial density in July. For groundwater, the mean density of coliform, fecal coliform, and E. coli was 1.9±0.58, 1.4±0.37, and 1.0±0.33 log CFU/ 100mL, respectively, showing no significant difference between sampling time. The survival of E. coli O157:H7 were prolonged in water with higher organic matter contents such as total nitrogen (TN), and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N). The reduction rates of E. coli O157:H7 in the water showed greater in order of 25, 35, 5, and 15℃. CONCLUSION: These results can be utilized as fundamental data for prediction the microbiological contamination of agricultural water and the development of microbial prevention technology.

A Comparative Study on Failure Pprediction Models for Small and Medium Manufacturing Company (중소제조기업의 부실예측모형 비교연구)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Moon, Jong Geon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

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Utility of B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에 있어서 B-type Natriuretic Peptide의 유용성)

  • Rhee, Chin Kook;Joo, Young Bin;Kim, Seok Chan;Park, Sung Hak;Lee, Sook Young;Koh, Yoon Seok;Kim, Young Kyoon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.62 no.5
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 2007
  • Background B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has been shown to be strong mortality predictors in a wide variety of cardiovascular syndromes. Little is known about BNP in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We studied whether BNP can predict mortality in patients with ARDS. Method Echocardiographic study was done to all patients with ARDS, and we excluded patient with low ejection fraction (less than 50%) or showing any features of diastolic dysfunction. 47 patients were enrolled between December, 2003 and February, 2006. Parameters including BNP were obtained within 24h hours at the time of enrollment. Result Mean BNP concentrations and APACHE II scores differed between the survivors and nonsurvivors (BNP, $219.5{\pm}57.7pg/mL$ vs $492.3{\pm}88.8pg/mL$; p=0.013, APACHE II score, $17.4{\pm}1.6$ vs $23.1{\pm}1.3$, p=0.009, respectively). With the use of the threshold value for BNP of 585 pg/mL, the specificity for the prediction of mortality was 94%. The threshold value for APACHE II of 15.5 showed sensitivity of 87%. 'APACHE II + $11{\times}logBNP$' showed sensitivity 63%, and specificity 82%, using threshold value for 46.14. Conclusion BNP concentrations and APCHE II scores were more elevated in nonsurvivors than survivors in patients with ARDS who have normal ejection fraction. BNP can predict mortality. Further study should be done.

Correlation of Proliferating Cell Nuclear Antigen (PCNA) Expression and S-phase Fraction, Survival Rate in Primary Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (원발성 비소세포 폐암에서 PCNA의 발현정도와 암세포의 분열능 및 생존률과의 관계)

  • Yang, Sei-Hoon;Kim, Hak-Ryul;Gu, Ki-Seon;Jung, Byung-Hak;Jeong, Eun-Taik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.756-765
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    • 1997
  • Background : To study the prognosis of patients with lung cancer, many investigators have reported the methods to detect cell proliferation in tissues including PCNA, thymidine autoradiography, flow cytometry and Ki-67. PCNA, also known as cyclin, is a cell related nuclear protein with 36KD intranuclear polypeptide that is maximally elevated in S phase of proliferating cells. In this study, PCNA was identified by paraffin-embedding tissue using immunohistochemistry which has an advantage of simplicity and maintenance of tissue architecture. The variation of PCNA expression is known to be related with proliferating fraction, histologic type, anatomic(TNM) stage, degree of cell differentiation, S-phase fraction and survival rate. We analyzed the correlation between PCNA expression and S-phase fraction, survival. Method : To investigate expression of PCNA in primary lung cancer, we used immunohistochemical stain to paraffin-embedded sections of 57 resected primary non-small cell lung cancer specimen and the results were analyzed according to the cell type, cell differentiation, TNM stage, S-phase fraction and survival. Results : PCNA expression was divided into five group according to degree of staging(-, +, ++, +++, ++++). Squamous cell type showed high positivity than in adenocarcinoma. Nonsignificant difference related to TNM stage was noticed. Nonsignificant difference related to degree of cell differentiation was noticed. S-phase fraction was increased with advance of PCNA positivity, but it could not reach the statistic significance. The 2 year survival rate and median survival time were -50% 13 months, +75% 41.3 months, ++73% 33.6 months, +++67% 29.0 months, ++++25% 9 months with statistic significance (P<0.05, Kaplan-Meier, generalized Wilcox). Conclusion : From this study, PCNA expression was high positive in squamous cell cancer. And, there was no relationship between PCNA positivity and TNM stage, cellular differentiation or S-phase fraction. But, the patients with high positive PCNA staining showed poor survival rate than the patients with lower positive PCNA staining (p<0.05). It was concluded that PCNA immunostaining is a simple and useful method for survival prediction in paraffin embedded tissue of non-small cell lung cancer.

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Leaching of Organophosphorus and Carbamate Pesticides in Soil Column and Prediction of Their Mobility Using the Convective Mobility Test Model in Soils (유기인계 및 카바메이트계 농약의 토주용탈과 대류이동성 모형에 의한 이동성 예측)

  • Kim, Chan-Sub;Ihm, Yang-Bin;Lee, Hee-Dong;Oh, Byung-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to investigate the downward mobility of pesticides using soil columns and to compare the experimental results with values predicted from Convective mobility test model. Nine pesticides such as metolcarb, molinate, fanobucarb, isazofos, diazinon, fenitrothion, dimepiperate, parathion and chlorpyrifos-methyl were used for leaching test in soil column for four soils; Jungdong (upland soil), Gangseo (paddy soil), Yesan (forest soil), and Sineom(upland, volcanic ash-derived soil) series. The peak concentrations leached from 10 cm-columns of three soils except Sineom series ranged 6.5 to 12.6 mg/L for metolcarb, 2.6 to 5.0 mg/L for molinate, 4.5 to 7.8 mg/L for fenobucarb, 0.39 to 1.36 mg/L for dimepiperate, 1.1 to 4.6 mg/L for isazofos, 0.01 to 0.14 mg/L for diazinon, lower than 0.01 to 0.70 mg/L for fenitrothion and lower than 0.01 to 0.44 mg/L for parathion. But chlorpyrifos-methyl was not leached from any soil columns. Elution volumes to reach the peak of metolcarb, molinate, fenobucarb, isazofos, diazinon, and dimepiperate in the leachate ranged 1.1 to 2.1 pore volume (PV), 1.6 to 3.3 PV, 1.6 to 3.3 PV, 2.1 to 4.4 PV, 6 to 15 PV, and 8 to 21 PV, respectively. On the same water flux conditions, convection times estimated by Convective mobility test model were coincided with results from soil column test in most of the soil-pesticide combinations applied. Based on convection times estimated by the model at standard conditions (water flux 1 cm/day), metolcarb was classified as most mobile, molinate, fenobucarb and isazofos as mobile or most mobile, dimepiperate as moderately mobile or mobile, diazinon as mobile, fenitrothion and parathion as slightly mobile or mobile and chlorpyrifos-methyl as immobile or slightly mobile.

An Effect of the Self-Regulation Program for Hypertensives -Synthesis & testing of Orem and Bandura's theory- (본태성 고혈압 환자의 자가간호증진을 위한 자기조절 프로그램 효과 -Orem이론과 Bandura이론의 합성과 검증-)

  • Park, Young-Im;Hong, Yeo-Shin
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 1994
  • Chronic health problems has become a major concern and challenge to the health care professionals today. Especially hypertension, one of the leading primary cause of death in Korea, is a typical chronic disease requiring adequate and continuous management. Though these hypertensives need to maintain desirable health practice by themselves for their life time, many previous studies indicated that most of the essential hypertensives have no specific symptoms and thus, reluctant to follow appropriate medical regimens causing the condition further aggravated and complicated. Self-care is an essential factor that keeps chronic patients in control of their health and wellness. Thus this study was conducted to identify the effect of the comprehensive self-regulation program as a nursing intervention on the promotion self-care performance and improvement in physical parameters of hypertensives. For this purpose, a one group quasi-experimental research with pre and post test design was used. The subjects of the study was consisted of thirty persons with mild or moderate essential hypertension from two companies in Cheong-ju city. The whole program was carried out from October, 1993 to February, 1994. The self-regulation program was consisted with group education on hypertension and self-care, self-regulation including the blood pressure self-monitoring and recording, recording of daily self-care activities, and encouraging and reinforcing self-efficacy through verbal persuation and enactive attainment. The subjects were asked to measure their own blood pressure by themselves twice per day and to record blood pressure and the daily self-care performance according to the instructions provided during the whole period of 9 weeks. The instruments used for data collection in this study were as follows : 1) Instruments used for measuring the knowledge about hypertension, multiple health locus of control, and perceived benifits and barriers were adapted from previous studies and modified by author to be fit for the subjects. 2) Self-efficacy scale and self-care performance record were developed by the author. 3) Physiological parameters included systolic / diastolic blood pressure, body weight, level of blood cholesterol, and 24hour ambulatory blood pressure. The post-experimental Cronbach's Alpha as the reliability test of scales were 0.703-0.897, an appropriate level of confidence. The effect of the program was analyzed by experimental stages ; the first week, the fifth week, and the ninth week since the experimental imput began. Data were analyzed by the SPSS PC+ program with paired t-test and t-test, repeated measure ANOVA, and pearson's correlation to de termine the effect of program. The results were as follows : 1) After the self-regulation program, scores on knowledge(t=-2.41, p=.011), perceived self-efficacy (F=5.60, p=.001), self-care performance(F=22.31, p=.0001) were significantly higher than those before the program. 2) After the program, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure were significantly lower than those before the program(F=10.89 -13.11, p=.0001). However in 24hour ambulatory blood pressure, systolic mean pressure was nearly significantly lower, but not in diastolic mean pressure. 3) After the program, the body weight was significant decresed(t=5.53, p=.0001), but the blood cholesterol level was not decreased significantly except in those cases with higher cholesterol level. 4) There were significant relationships between changes in self-care performance and diastolic pressure at 1st week (r=.3389, p=.033) and changes in self-care performance and systolic pressure at 9th week(r=.3651, p=.024). 5) There were significant relationship between perceived self-efficacy and self-care performance at 5th week(r=.5313, p=.001) and 9th week (r=.3026, p=.052). 6) After the program, internal health locus of control and perceived benefits did not show significant change, but perceived barriers was significantly lower than those before the program (t=3.57, p=.0001). From the above results, it can be concluded that 1) The self-regulation program is an effective nursing strategy to promote self-care performance of hypertensives and to lower the blood pressure. Thus this program can be recommended in the management of the hypertensives in workplaces and community settings. 2) The synthesis of Orem's self-care theory and Bandura's self-regulation & self-efficacy theory in this study was proved to enhance explanation and prediction of the change of self-care behavior. Thus the result of the study would contribute in development of the self-care theory and an expansion of practice-theory.

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Review of Policy Direction and Coupled Model Development between Groundwater Recharge Quantity and Climate Change (기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Joung-Ho;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Houng, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-184
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    • 2010
  • Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

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A Study of Factors Affecting Measurement of Kidney Size in Ultrasonography (초음파로 신장의 크기 측정 시 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Yun-Min;Choi, Jun-Gu
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2008
  • Since measuring the size of kidney with sonography becomes an important index for diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic prediction in kidney disease, the accurate measurement and evaluation on this are clinically very important. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to increase reproducibility and objectivity in measuring the size of kidney by enumerating factors that have an impact for measurement. It targeted 44 adults in Korea at the age of 21-27. It measured in order for both kidneys to be seen most largely while changing a subject-examiner's position in a state of fasting for 8 hours and a transducer's approaching direction. It compared a size of kidney by measuring, respectively, with the same method in 30 minutes and in 1 hour after drinking water in 700-1,000cc. In case of the lateral approach scan in decubitus position, the average length of the kidney both to the right and the left and the deviation of measurement to be the largest. In NPO(None Per Oral) state, the average length in the right kidney was 10.19cm, and the average length in the left kidney was 10.33cm. In 60 minutes after taking moisture, the average length in the right kidney was 10.94cm, and the average length in the left kidney was 11.13cm. In comparing the average length of the kidney in NPO state and its average length in 60 minutes after taking moisture, the size swelled by 7.3% for the length in the right kidney and by 7.7% in the left, thereby having been indicated to be statistically significant(P<0.003). The measurement in a size of kidney by using ultrasound may be measured differently depending on a patient's state of taking moisture and a transducer's approaching direction. It is thought that when the measurement in a size of kidney is especially important clinically, the intake and intake time in moisture need to be considered and that measuring with the posterior approach in prone position is a good method aiming to increase reproducibility in measuring length of the kidney.

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Improvements for Atmospheric Motion Vectors Algorithm Using First Guess by Optical Flow Method (옵티컬 플로우 방법으로 계산된 초기 바람 추정치에 따른 대기운동벡터 알고리즘 개선 연구)

  • Oh, Yurim;Park, Hyungmin;Kim, Jae Hwan;Kim, Somyoung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_1
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    • pp.763-774
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    • 2020
  • Wind data forecasted from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is generally used as the first-guess of the target tracking process to obtain the atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs) because it increases tracking accuracy and reduce computational time. However, there is a contradiction that the NWP model used as the first-guess is used again as the reference in the AMVs verification process. To overcome this problem, model-independent first guesses are required. In this study, we propose the AMVs derivation from Lucas and Kanade optical flow method and then using it as the first guess. To retrieve AMVs, Himawari-8/AHI geostationary satellite level-1B data were used at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC from August 19 to September 5, 2015. To evaluate the impact of applying the optical flow method on the AMV derivation, cross-validation has been conducted in three ways as follows. (1) Without the first-guess, (2) NWP (KMA/UM) forecasted wind as the first-guess, and (3) Optical flow method based wind as the first-guess. As the results of verification using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the highest precision (RMSVD: 5.296-5.804 ms-1) was obtained using optical flow based winds as the first-guess. In addition, the computation speed for AMVs derivation was the slowest without the first-guess test, but the other two had similar performance. Thus, applying the optical flow method in the target tracking process of AMVs algorithm, this study showed that the optical flow method is very effective as a first guess for model-independent AMVs derivation.

Prediction of Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater in the Northern Nonsan area Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중 회귀 분석을 이용한 논산 북부 지역 지하수의 질산성 질소 오염 예측)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Yeo, In-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2008
  • Nitrate concentrations were measured up to 49 mg/L (as $NO_3$-N) and 22% of the samples exceeded drinking water standard in shallow and bedrock groundwater of the northern Nonsan area. Nitrate concentrations showed a significant difference among land use groups. To predict nitrate concentration in groundwater, multiple regression analysis was carried out using hydrogeologic parameters of soil media, topography and land use which were categorized as several groups, well depth and altitude, and field parameters of temperature, pH, DO and EC. Hydrogeologic parameters were quantified as area proportions of each category within circular buffers centering at wells. Regression was performed to all the combination of variables and the most relevant model was selected based on adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. $R^2$). Regression using hydrogelogic parameters with varying buffer radii show highest Adj. $R^2$ at 50m and 300m for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively. Shallow groundwater has higher Adj. $R^2$ than bedrock groundwater indicating higher susceptibility to hydrogeologic properties of surface environment near the well. Land use and soil media was major explanatory variables for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively and residential area was a major variable in both shallow and bedrock groundwater. Regression involving hydrogeologic parameters and field parameters showed that EC, paddy and pH were major variables in shallow groundwater whereas DO, EC and natural area were in bedrock groundwater. Field parameters have much higher explanatory power over the hydrogeologic parameters suggesting field parameters which are routinely measured can provide important information on each well in assessment of nitrate contamination. The most relevant buffer radii can be applied to estimation of travel time of contaminants in surface environment to wells.