• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

A new consensus algorithm for the prediction of tropical cyclone track has been developed. Conventional consensus is a simple average of a few fixed models that showed the good performance in track prediction for the past few years. Meanwhile, the consensus in this study is a weighted average of a few models that may change for every individual forecast time. The models are selected as follows. The first step is to find the analogous past tropical cyclone tracks to the current track. The next step is to evaluate the model performances for those past tracks. Finally, we take the weighted average of the selected models. More weight is given to the higher performance model. This new algorithm has been named as DYTRAP (DYnamic data-base Typhoon tRAck Prediction) in the sense that the data base is used to find the analogous past tracks and the effective models for every individual track prediction case. DYTRAP has been applied to all 2009 tropical cyclone track prediction. The results outperforms those of all models as well as all the official forecasts of the typhoon centers. In order to prove the real usefulness of DYTRAP, it is necessary to apply the DYTRAP system to the real time prediction because the forecast in typhoon centers usually uses 6-hour or 12-hour-old model guidances.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.1508-1520
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.719-728
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• 2022

The prediction of short-term traffic flow is the theoretical basis of intelligent transportation as well as the key technology in traffic flow induction systems. The research on short-term traffic flow prediction has showed the considerable social value. At present, the support vector regression (SVR) intelligent prediction model that is suitable for small samples has been applied in this domain. Aiming at parameter selection difficulty and prediction accuracy improvement, the artificial bee colony (ABC) is adopted in optimizing SVR parameters, which is referred to as the ABC-SVR algorithm in the paper. The simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with SVR algorithm, and the feasibility of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is verified by result analysis. Continuously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with particle swarm optimization SVR (PSO-SVR) algorithm and genetic optimization SVR (GA-SVR) algorithm, and a better optimization effect has been attained by simulation experiments and verified by statistical test. Simultaneously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm and wavelet neural network time series (WNN-TS) algorithm, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is improved and satisfactory prediction effects have been obtained.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.469-476
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• 2003

Despite of considerable research results or uniaxial tension creep available for superalloys, few studies have been made on high temperature creep using the Initial Stram Method (ISM) In this paper, the real-time prediction of high temperature creep strength and creep lift for the nickel-based superalloy Udimet 720 (high-temperature and high-pressure gas turbine engine materials) was performed on round-bar type specimens under pure static load at the temperatures of 538$^{\circ}C$. 649$^{\circ}C$, and 704$^{\circ}C$. The predictive equation derived from the ISM in creep tests showed better reliability than those from LMP (Larson-Miller Parameter) and LMP-lSM (Larson Miller Parameter-Initial Strain Method) specially for long time creep prediction (10$^3$∼10$\^$5/h).

• 경영과학
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.91-111
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• 1997

Neural Network(NN) is known to be suitable for forecasting corporate bankruptcy because of discriminant capability. Bandkruptcy prediction on NN by now has mostly been studied based on financial indices at specific point of time. However, the financial profile of corporates fluctuates within a certain range with the elapse of time. Besides, we need a lot of data of different bankrupt types in order to apply NN for better bankruptcy prediction. Therefore, We have decided to focus on textile and clothing industries for bankruptcy prediction with limited data. One part of the collected data was used for training and calibration, and the other was used for verification. The model makes a learning with extended data from financial indices at specific point of time. The trained model has been tested and we could get a high hitting ratio relatively.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.91-91
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• 1989

Neural Network(NN) is known to be suitable for forecasting corporate bankruptcy because of discriminant capability. Bandkruptcy prediction on NN by now has mostly been studied based on financial indices at specific point of time. However, the financial profile of corporates fluctuates within a certain range with the elapse of time. Besides, we need a lot of data of different bankrupt types in order to apply NN for better bankruptcy prediction. Therefore, We have decided to focus on textile and clothing industries for bankruptcy prediction with limited data. One part of the collected data was used for training and calibration, and the other was used for verification. The model makes a learning with extended data from financial indices at specific point of time. The trained model has been tested and we could get a high hitting ratio relatively.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 International Symposium on GPS/GNSS Vol.1
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• pp.191-196
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• 2006

In GPS Positioning, the error of satellite orbit will affect user's position accuracy directly, it is important to determine the satellite orbit precise. The real-time orbit is needed in kinematic GPS positioning, the precise GPS orbit from IGS would be delayed long time, so orbit prediction is key to real-time kinematic positioning. We analyze the GPS predicted ephemeris, on the base of comparison of EKF and UKF, a new orbit prediction method is put forward based on UKF in this paper, the result shows that UKF improves the orbit predicted precision and stability. It offers a new method for others satellites orbit determination as Galileo, and so on.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.27-39
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• 2018

Since the global positioning system (GPS) has been included in mobile devices (e.g., for car navigation, in smartphones, and in smart watches), the impact of personal GPS log data on daily life has been unprecedented. For example, such log data have been used to solve public problems, such as mass transit traffic patterns, finding optimum travelers' routes, and determining prospective business zones. However, a real-time analysis technique for GPS log data has been unattainable due to theoretical limitations. We introduced a machine learning model in order to resolve the limitation. In this paper presents a new, three-stage real-time prediction model for a person's daily route activity. In the first stage, a machine learning-based clustering algorithm is adopted for place detection. The training data set was a personal GPS tracking history. In the second stage, prediction of a new person's transient mode is studied. In the third stage, to represent the person's activity on those daily routes, inference rules are applied.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제22권7호
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• pp.169-175
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• 2004

본 논문은 일반국도 실시간 통행시간 정보제공을 위한 동적 통행시간 예측모형을 개발했다. 교통정보 제공을 위한 통행시간 예측에 관한 기존의 많은 연구가 있었지만, 우리나라에서 일반국도에 대한 통행시간 예측모형은 아직 없었다. 통행시간 예측을 위해 현재 일반국도 1호선에 약 10km 간격으로 연속하여 설치된 AVI자료를 이용했고, 예측모형 평가를 위한 통행시간 기준값 수집을 위해 프로브차량을 이용했다. 본 논문에 사용된 일반국도 1호선 구간은 잦은 유출 입 지점으로 인해 원시 AVI 자료에 많은 이상치가 관측되었다. 이러한 이상치를 제거하기 위해 저자가 제안한 알고리즘을 사용하여 이상치를 제거한 후, 칼만필터링 알고리즘을 이용하여 통행시간을 예측했다. 수집주기를 달리하여 예측모형을 평가한 결과 5분, 10분, 15분 수집주기에 대해서는 MARE가 $0.061{\sim}0.066$로 비슷하게 나왔고, 30분 수집주기는 0.078로 나와 다소 높은 오차율을 나타냈다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.197-220
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• 2022

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identifies the demand pattern categorization of repair parts of Automotive After-sales Service(A/S) and proposes a demand prediction model for Auto repair parts using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) of artificial neural networks (ANN). The optimal parts inventory quantity prediction model is implemented by applying daily, weekly, and monthly the parts demand data to the LSTM model for the Lumpy demand which is irregularly in a specific period among repair parts of the Automotive A/S service. Design/methodology/approach This study classified the four demand pattern categorization with 2 years demand time-series data of repair parts according to the Average demand interval(ADI) and coefficient of variation (CV²) of demand size. Of the 16,295 parts in the A/S service shop studied, 96.5% had a Lumpy demand pattern that large quantities occurred at a specific period. lumpy demand pattern's repair parts in the last three years is predicted by applying them to the LSTM for daily, weekly, and monthly time-series data. as the model prediction performance evaluation index, MAPE, RMSE, and RMSLE that can measure the error between the predicted value and the actual value were used. Findings As a result of this study, Daily time-series data were excellently predicted as indicators with the lowest MAPE, RMSE, and RMSLE values, followed by Weekly and Monthly time-series data. This is due to the decrease in training data for Weekly and Monthly. even if the demand period is extended to get the training data, the prediction performance is still low due to the discontinuation of current vehicle models and the use of alternative parts that they are contributed to no more demand. Therefore, sufficient training data is important, but the selection of the prediction demand period is also a critical factor.