• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.227-233
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• 2004

This paper presents our work on constructing a model that is intended to predict the probability of attrition at specified points in time among customers of an insurance company. There are some difficulties in building a data-based model because a data set may contain possibly censored observations. In an effort to avoid such kind of problem, we performed logistic regression over specified time intervals while using explanatory variables to construct the proposed model. Then, we developed a Cox-type regression model for estimating the probability of attrition over a specified period of time using time-dependent explanatory variables subject to changes in value over the course of the observations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2001

In this paper, we consider a simple method for testing the assumption of independent censoring on the basis of a Cox proportional hazards regression model with a time-dependent covariate. This method involves a two-stage sampling in which a random subset of censored observations is selected and followed-up until their true survival times are observed. Lee and Wolfe(1998) proposed an adjusted estimate of the survivor function for the dependent censoring under a proportional hazards alternative. This paper extends their result to obtain a bootstrap confidence interval for the adjusted survivor function under the dependent censoring. The proposed procedure is illustrated with an example of a clinical trial for lung cancer analysed in Lee and Wolfe(1998).

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.238-245
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• 2015

Purpose: This study aimed to identify time-dependent prognostic factors and demonstrate the time-dependent effects of important prognostic factors in patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 3,653 patients with AGC who underwent curative standard gastrectomy between 1991 and 2005 at the Korea Cancer Center Hospital. Multivariate survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression was used in the analysis. A non-proportionality test based on the Schoenfeld residuals (also known as partial residuals) was performed, and scaled Schoenfeld residuals were plotted over time for each covariate. Results: The multivariate analysis revealed that sex, depth of invasion, metastatic lymph node (LN) ratio, tumor size, and chemotherapy were time-dependent covariates violating the proportional hazards assumption. The prognostic effects (i.e., log of hazard ratio [LHR]) of the time-dependent covariates changed over time during follow-up, and the effects generally diminished with low slope (e.g., depth of invasion and tumor size), with gentle slope (e.g., metastatic LN ratio), or with steep slope (e.g., chemotherapy). Meanwhile, the LHR functions of some covariates (e.g., sex) crossed the zero reference line from positive (i.e., bad prognosis) to negative (i.e., good prognosis). Conclusions: The time-dependent effects of the prognostic factors of AGC are clearly demonstrated in this study. We can suggest that time-dependent effects are not an uncommon phenomenon among prognostic factors of AGC.

• Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.184-193
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• 2023

Purpose: The present study was designed to compare the incidence of periodontitis according to menopausal status and to investigate the possible effect of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on periodontitis in postmenopausal women using a common data model (CDM) at a single institution. Methods: This study involved retrospective cohort data of 950,751 patients from a 20-year database (2001 to 2020) of Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital converted to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership CDM. One-way analysis of variance models and the χ² test were used to analyze the statistical differences in patient characteristics among groups. A time-dependent Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, and P values less than 0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. Results: Of the 29,729 patients, 1,307 patients were diagnosed with periodontitis and 28,422 patients were not. Periodontitis was significantly more common among postmenopausal patients regardless of HRT status than among the non-menopausal group (P<0.05). Time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that the postmenopausal patients had a significantly higher chance of having periodontitis than non-menopausal patients (P<0.05), but after adjustment for age, body mass index, and smoking status, the difference between the non-menopausal and post-menopausal HRT-treated groups was insignificant (P=0.140). Conclusions: Postmenopausal women had a significantly greater risk of periodontitis than non-menopausal women. Additionally, the use of HRT in postmenopausal women could reduce the incidence of periodontitis.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.189-198
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• 2024

Objective: To investigate the prognostic utility of radiomics features extracted from ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT combined with clinical factors and metabolic parameters in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in individuals diagnosed with extranodal nasal-type NK/T cell lymphoma (ENKTCL). Materials and Methods: A total of 126 adults with ENKTCL who underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT examination before treatment were retrospectively included and randomly divided into training (n = 88) and validation cohorts (n = 38) at a ratio of 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operation Cox regression analysis was used to select the best radiomics features and calculate each patient's radiomics scores (RadPFS and RadOS). Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to compare survival between patient groups risk-stratified by the radiomics scores. Various models to predict PFS and OS were constructed, including clinical, metabolic, clinical + metabolic, and clinical + metabolic + radiomics models. The discriminative ability of each model was evaluated using Harrell's C index. The performance of each model in predicting PFS and OS for 1-, 3-, and 5-years was evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Kaplan-Meier curve analysis demonstrated that the radiomics scores effectively identified high- and low-risk patients (all P < 0.05). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that the Ann Arbor stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), and RadPFS were independent risk factors associated with PFS. Further, β2-microglobulin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score, SUVmax, and RadOS were independent risk factors for OS. The clinical + metabolic + radiomics model exhibited the greatest discriminative ability for both PFS (Harrell's C-index: 0.805 in the validation cohort) and OS (Harrell's C-index: 0.833 in the validation cohort). The time-dependent ROC analysis indicated that the clinical + metabolic + radiomics model had the best predictive performance. Conclusion: The PET/CT-based clinical + metabolic + radiomics model can enhance prognostication among patients with ENKTCL and may be a non-invasive and efficient risk stratification tool for clinical practice.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.214-224
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• 2022

Background: Studies of the prognostic role of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are still limited. This study investigated the prognostic power of CTCs from the pulmonary vein (PV), peripheral blood (PB), and bone marrow (BM) for postoperative recurrence in patients who underwent curative resection for NSCLC. Methods: Forty patients who underwent curative resection for NSCLC were enrolled. Before resection, 10-mL samples were obtained of PB from the radial artery, blood from the PV of the lobe containing the tumor, and BM aspirates from the rib. A microfabricated filter was used for CTC enrichment, and immunofluorescence staining was used to identify CTCs. Results: The pathologic stage was stage I in 8 patients (20%), II in 15 (38%), III in 14 (35%), and IV in 3 (8%). The median number of PB-, PV-, and BM-CTCs was 4, 4, and 5, respectively. A time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that PB-CTCs had excellent predictive value for recurrence-free survival (RFS), with the highest area under the curve at each time point (first, second, and third quartiles of RFS). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model, PB-CTCs were an independent risk factor for recurrence (hazard ratio, 10.580; 95% confidence interval, 1.637-68.388; p<0.013). Conclusion: The presence of ≥4 PB-CTCs was an independent poor prognostic factor for RFS, and PV-CTCs and PB-CTCs had a positive linear correlation in patients with recurrence.

• 사회복지연구
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.115-138
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• 2009

본 연구의 목적은 자산빈곤층의 특성을 이해하고 자산빈곤이행(移行) 가능성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 실증적으로 알아보는 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 한국노동패널자료를 분석자료로 이용하여 생존분석을 실시하였다. 자료분석 결과, 자산빈곤가구는 소득빈곤가구에 비해 빈곤지속기간이 길고, 빈곤탈피율이 낮으며 빈곤에 더 오래 머물러 있을 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 시간의존 콕스회귀분석 결과, 가구주의 교육수준이 높고 소득 수준이 높으며, 비정규직에 비해 정규직일수록 자산빈곤을 조기에 탈피할 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과를 바탕으로 기존의 빈곤정책과 함께 자산빈곤층의 자산을 형성하기 위한 제도적 지원이 필요하며, 국내에서 자산형성 지원사업이 시행이 된다면 좀 더 높은 수준의 교육을 받거나, 직무 능력 향상을 통해 안정적인 일자리(decent job)를 얻는 능력을 갖추는데 정책의 초점이 맞추어져야 할 것임을 제안한다.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.279-286
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• 2023

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the association between exposure to occupational hazards and the metabolic syndrome. A secondary objective was to analyze the additive and multiplicative effects of exposure to risk factors. Methods: This retrospective cohort was based on 31,615 health examinees at the Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital in Republic of Korea from 2012-2021. Demographic and behavior-related risk factors were treated as confounding factors, whereas three physical factors, 19 organic solvents and aerosols, and 13 metals and dust were considered occupational risk factors. Time-dependent Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios. Results: The risk of metabolic syndrome was significantly higher in night shift workers (hazard ratio = 1.45: 95% confidence interval = 1.36-1.54) and workers who were exposed to noise (1.15:1.07-1.24). Exposure to some other risk factors was also significantly associated with a higher risk of metabolic syndrome. They were dimethylformamide, acetonitrile, trichloroethylene, xylene, styrene, toluene, dichloromethane, copper, antimony, lead, copper, iron, welding fume, and manganese. Among the 28 significant pairs, 19 exhibited both positive additive and multiplicative effects. Conclusions: Exposure to single or combined occupational risk factors may increase the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. Working conditions should be monitored and improved to reduce exposure to occupational hazards and prevent the development of the metabolic syndrome.

• 벤처창업연구
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.225-236
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• 2023

2015년~2021년 혁신인증을 획득한 혁신형 중소기업과 일반 중소기업에 대해 생존기간의 관점에서 비교·분석하여 정책적 시사점을 도출하였다. 업력, 규모(고용인원, 자본 및 부채, 매출액 및 영업이익), 한국표준산업분류 중분류를 이용하여 혁신형 중소기업과 유사한 일반 중소기업을 선별하였으며, 생존기간은 휴·폐업 및 부도에 준하는 연체를 사건으로 정의하여 산출하였다. 생존분석 결과 혁신형 중소기업은 일반 중소기업 대비 휴·폐업 및 연체 발생 위험이 9.8% 감소하는 것으로 나타나, 혁신형 중소기업의 생존기간이 유의하게 길다는 결론을 도출하였다. 그 외 중소기업의 업력과 규모(고용인원, 자본)는 생존기간에 정(+)의 영향을, 부채는 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 혁신역량과 미래성장성 중심의 혁신인증 제도는 생존기간의 관점에서 유의한 지표이며, 혁신인증 제도의 혜택 및 지원정책이 중소기업의 실질적 성장과 생존을 위해서는 업력 및 업종을 반영하여 보다 체계적이고 정교화 될 필요가 있다는 결론을 도출하였다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.19-43
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• 2014

전체 결과의 80%가 전체 원인의 20%에 의해 일어난다는 파레토 법칙(Pareto principle)은 상위 20%의 핵심 고객에 대한 우선적인 마케팅을 비롯하여 기업 경영의 많은 부분에서 적용되어 왔다. 파레토 법칙과는 대조적으로, 80%의 사소한 다수가 20%의 핵심적인 소수보다 우월한 가치를 창출한다는 롱테일 법칙(Long Tail theory)은 ICT(Information and Communication Technology)의 발전과 함께 새로운 경영 패러다임으로 주목 받아오고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 경영 현장에서 양대 흐름을 형성해온 이러한 법칙들이 변화무쌍한 글로벌 가상화 환경에서 기업의 핵심적인 성공 요인이라고 할 수 있는 가상 지식 협업에는 어떻게 관련되는지를 규명하는 것이다. 이를 위해, 대표적인 가상 지식 협업 커뮤니티인 위키피디아에서 품질 최상위 등급인 피쳐드 아티클(Featured Article) 레벨로 승급된 2,978개의 아티클에 대한 협업 행위를 분석하였다. 즉, 각 아티클 그룹에서 편집 횟수 기준 상위 20%에 속하는 참여자들의 총 편집 횟수가 전체 편집 횟수에서 차지하는 비율인 파레토 비율(Pareto ratio)이 지식 협업 효율성과 어떤 관계를 가지고 있는지를 도출하였다. 그리고, 이러한 연구를 편집 참여를 통한 지식 공유에 대한 전체적인 불평등 정도를 나타내는 지니 계수(Gini coefficient)의 영향 및 그룹의 작업 특성을 반영하도록 확장하였다. 결과적으로, 지식 공유의 파레토 비율과 지니 계수가 증가하면 지식 협업 효율성도 높아지지만, 이러한 변수들이 일정 수준 이상으로 증가하면 오히려 지식 협업 효율성이 낮아지는 역 U자(inverted U-shaped) 관계가 있음을 확인하였다. 그리고, 이러한 관계는 인지적 노력을 상대적으로 더 많이 요구하는 학문적인 특성의 작업에서 더 민감하게 작용하는 것으로 보인다.