• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.655-665
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• 2014

An adequate understanding and response to natural hazards such as heat wave, heavy rainfall and severe drought is required. We apply extreme value theory to analyze these abnormal weather phenomena. It is common for extremes in climatic data to be nonstationary in space and time. In this paper, we analyze summer rainfall data in South Korea using exceedance values over thresholds estimated by quantile regression with location information and time as covariates. We group weather stations in South Korea into 5 clusters and t extreme value models to threshold exceedances for each cluster under the assumption of independence in space and time as well as estimates of uncertainty for spatial dependence as proposed in Northrop and Jonathan (2011).

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.17-28
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• 2011

This study applied the Kalman Filter for real-time forecasting the G/R (ground rain gauge rainfall/radar rainfall) ratio to correct the mean field bias of the very-short-range-forecast (VSRF) rainfall. The MAPLE-forecasted rainfall was used as the VSRF rainfall, also the methodology for deciding the G/R ratio was improved by evaluating the change of G/R ratio characteristics depending on the threshold and accumulation time. This analysis was done for the inland, mountain, and coastal regions, separately, for their comparison. As the results, more stable G/R ratio could be estimated by applying the threshold and accumulation time, whose forecasting accuracy could also be secured. The accuracy of the corrected rainfall forecasting by the forecasted G/R ratio was the best in the inland region but the worst in the coastal region.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.148-157
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• 2022

Every year, particularly during the monsoon rainy season, landslides at the Chuncheon province of South Korea cause tremendous damage to lives, properties, and infrastructures. More so, the high rainfall intensity and long rainfall days that occurred in 2020 have increased the water content in the soil, thereby increasing the chances of landslide occurrences. Besides this, the rainfall thresholds and characteristics responsible for the initiation of landslides in this region have not been properly identified. Therefore, this paper addresses the rainfall thresholds responsible for the initiation of landslides at Chuncheon from a regional perspective. Using data obtained from rainfall measurements taken from 2002 to 2011, we identify a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity and rainfall duration for the initiation of landslides. In addition, we identify the relationship between the rainfall intensity using a 3-day, 7-day, and 10-day antecedent rainfall observation. Specifically, we estimate the rainfall data at 8 sites where debris flow occurred in 2011 by kriging. Following this, the estimated data are used to construct the relationship between the intensity (I), duration (D), and frequency (F) of rainfall. The results of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis show that landslides will occur under a rainfall frequency below a 2-year return period at two areas in Chuncheon. These results will be effectively used to design structures that can prevent the occurrence of landslides in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.327-338
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• 2011

This study examined the quantification problem of a storm shape using the concept of equivalent ellipses. The equivalent ellipses of a storm event were estimated at every time step with respect to the several thresholds of rainfall intensity, which was also examined in terms of their size and number. In addition, the average equivalent ellipse was decided, and the confidence intervals of major axis, minor axis, and rotational angle were calculated to evaluate if the average equivalent ellipse could be the representative one. As results, the following results could be derived. First of all, the number of equivalent ellipses and the size of equivalent ellipses increase as the threshold increase. Secondly, the appropriate ratio of major and minor axises of equivalent ellipse is 2 : 1. Finally, the average rotational angle estimated with respect to several threshold rainfall intensities were all found not to be statistically different from that of all representative rotational angles.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.9 s.170
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• pp.767-777
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• 2006

The goal of this study is to improve Huff's method which is the most popular method for rainfall time distribution in Korea. As the first step, we reevaluated the context of Huff's original research motivations, geography and rainfall pattern of study area, and compared that to Korean situations. In original Huff's results, no change in temporal distribution characteristics were found for different rainfall durations. This was found to be different from Korean situations. Furthermore, results from the MOCT(Ministry of Construction and Transportation) version of Huff's method is on a gage basis not on a watershed basis, thus making it difficult to select cumulative rainfall curves representative of a watershed. In addition, all rainfall data regardless of their magnitude were used in the MOCT version of Huff' method which is different from original Huff's which screened out data by using a threshold value of 25.4mm. For both point and areal mean rainfall, time distribution characteristics of rainfall for various durations were found to be different. This was statistically proven by K-S test at 5% significance level as some cumulative rainfall curves developed from the rainfall data of certain durations were found to be not significant with cumulative rainfall curves developed from the rainfall data of all durations. Therefore, in order to apply Huff's method to Korean situations, it is recommended that dimensionless cumulative curve must be developed for various rainfall duration intervals using rainfall data greater than a certain threshold value.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.362-362
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• 2020

Flash flood is a dangerous weather phenomenon, affecting humans and the economy. The identification, forecast of the changing trend and its characteristics are increasingly concerned. In the world, there have many methods for determining the characteristics of flash floods, in which flash flood guidance (FFG) is a fast, effective and widely used method. The main source of flash floods is short-term rainfall. In this study, we used the data of cross-sectional measurement at the tributaries and the hourly rain data from the automatic rainfall measurement stations in the Geum river basin. Besides, we use a combination of the flash flood guidance and the best fit distribution function to estimate the repeatability of flash floods for head-water catchments in Geum river basin. In which, FFG determines the threshold of rainfall for flash floods. The study has determined the best hourly rainfall distribution function for the Geum river basin and estimated the maximum rainfall of 1hr according to the return periods.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.591-594
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the critical flood discharge and flash flood trigger rainfall for alarm system providing for a flash flood in mountainous. This study was effectively estimated a topographic characteristic factor of basin using the GIS. Especially, decided stream order using GIS at stream order decision that is important for input variable of GCIUH. Result that calculate threshold discharge to use GCIUH, at the Mureung valley basin, flash flood trigger rainfall was 16.34mm in the first 20 minutes when the threshold discharge was $14.54\;m^3/sec$.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.47-58
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• 2013

Recently, an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration due to global climate changes has occasioned the significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as most parts of the world. Such a local flood that usually occurs as the result of intense rainfall over small regions rises quite quickly with little or no advance warning time to prevent flood damage. To prevent the local flood damage, it is important to quickly predict the flood severity for flood events exceeding a threshold discharge that may cause the flood damage for inland areas. The aim of this study is to develop the NFI (New Flood Index) measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for use in local flood predictions by the regression analysis between the NFI and rainfall patterns. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model using the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observations for the two study catchments. The flood events above a threshold assumed as the 2-year return period discharge are targeted to estimate the NFI obtained by the geometric mean of the three relative severity factors, such as the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time. The regression results show that the 3-hour maximum rainfall depths have the highest relationships with the NFI. It is expected that the best-fit regression equation between the NFI and rainfall characteristics can provide the basic database of the preliminary information for predicting the local flood severity in small ungauged catchments.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.99-99
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• 2020

The frequency and scale of domestic flood damage continues to increase, but the criteria for responding to flood damage have not been established. To this end, research is underway to estimate the amount of rainfall in each region so that it can be used to respond to flood damage. The limit rainfall is defined as the cumulative maximum rainfall for each duration that causes flooding, and this research purpose to improve the threshold rainfall by estimating the damage based on the damage history in units of 5 years and analyzing changes over time. The limit rainfall based on the damage history was estimated by using the NDMS past damage history of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety and the rainfall minutes data of AWS and ASOS. The period for estimating the limit rainfall is 2013 ~ 2017, 2015 ~ 2019, and the limit rainfall is estimated by analyzing the relationship between the flood damage history and the rainfall event in each period. Considering changes in watershed characteristics and disaster prevention performance, the data were compared using 5-year data. As a result of the analysis, the limit rainfall based on the damage history could be estimated for less than about 10.0% of the administrative dongs nationwide. As a result of comparing the limit rainfall by period, it was confirmed that the area where the limit rainfall has increased or decreased This was analyzed as a change due to rainfall events or urbanization, and it is judged that it will be possible to improve the risk criteria of flooding.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.733-745
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• 2010

Seasonality of hydrologic extreme variable is a significant element from a water resources managemental point of view. It is closely related with various fields such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. Hydrological frequency analysis conjunction with partial duration series rather than block maxima, offers benefits that include data expansion, analysis of seasonality and occurrence. In this study, nonstationary frequency analysis based on the Bayesian model has been suggested which effectively linked with advantage of POT (peaks over threshold) analysis that contains seasonality information. A selected threshold that the value of upper 98% among the 24 hours duration rainfall was applied to extract POT series at Seoul station, and goodness-fit-test of selected GEV distribution has been examined through graphical representation. Seasonal variation of location and scale parameter ($\mu$ and $\sigma$) of GEV distribution were represented by Fourier series, and the posterior distributions were estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The design rainfall estimated by GEV quantile function and derived posterior distribution for the Fourier coefficients, were illustrated with a wide range of return periods. The nonstationary frequency analysis considering seasonality can reasonably reproduce underlying extreme distribution and simultaneously provide a full annual cycle of the design rainfall as well.