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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.8.733

Concept of Seasonality Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables and Design Rainfall Estimation Using Nonstationary Frequency Analysis  

Lee, Jeong-Ju (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Chonbuk National Univ.)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Chonbuk National Univ.)
Hwang, Kyu-Nam (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Chonbuk National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.43, no.8, 2010 , pp. 733-745 More about this Journal
Abstract
Seasonality of hydrologic extreme variable is a significant element from a water resources managemental point of view. It is closely related with various fields such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. Hydrological frequency analysis conjunction with partial duration series rather than block maxima, offers benefits that include data expansion, analysis of seasonality and occurrence. In this study, nonstationary frequency analysis based on the Bayesian model has been suggested which effectively linked with advantage of POT (peaks over threshold) analysis that contains seasonality information. A selected threshold that the value of upper 98% among the 24 hours duration rainfall was applied to extract POT series at Seoul station, and goodness-fit-test of selected GEV distribution has been examined through graphical representation. Seasonal variation of location and scale parameter ($\mu$ and $\sigma$) of GEV distribution were represented by Fourier series, and the posterior distributions were estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The design rainfall estimated by GEV quantile function and derived posterior distribution for the Fourier coefficients, were illustrated with a wide range of return periods. The nonstationary frequency analysis considering seasonality can reasonably reproduce underlying extreme distribution and simultaneously provide a full annual cycle of the design rainfall as well.
Keywords
hydrologic extreme variable; peaks over threshold; seasonality; nonstationary; bayesian model; fourier analysis;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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