• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.185-202
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• 2012

.Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.316-326
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• 2014

Determination of the late marginal heading date (LMHD), which would allow estimation of the late marginal seeding date and the late marginal transplanting date, would help identification of potential double cropping areas and, as a result, establishment of cropping systems. The objective of this study was to determine the LMHD at 51 sites in Korea. For these sites, weather data were obtained from 1971 to 2000 and from 1981 to 2010, which represent past and current normal climate conditions, respectively. To examine crop productivity on the LMHD, climatic yield potential (CYP) was determined to represent the potential yield under a given climate condition. The LMHD was calculated using accumulated temperature for 40 days with threshold values of $760^{\circ}C$, $800^{\circ}C$, $840^{\circ}C$ and $880^{\circ}C$. The value of CYP on a given LMHD was determined using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days from the LMHD. The value of CYP on the LMHD was divided by the maximum value of CYP (CYPmax) in a season to represent the relative yield on the LMHD compared with the potential yield in the season. Our results indicated that the LMHD was delayed at most sites under current normal conditions compared with past conditions. Spatial variation of the LMHD differed by the threshold temperature. Overall, the minimum value of CYP/CYPmax was 81.8% under all of given conditions. In most cases, the value of CYP/CYPmax was >90%, which suggested that yield could be comparable to the potential yield even though heading would have occurred on the LMHD. When the LMHD could be scheduled later without considerable reduction in yield, the late marginal transplanting date could also be delayed accordingly, which would facilitate doublecropping in many areas in Korea. Yield could be affected by sudden change of temperature during a grain filling period. Yet, CYP was calculated using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days after heading. Thus, the value of CYP/CYPmax may not represent actual yield potential due to change of the LMHD, which suggested that further study would be merited to take into account the effect of weather events during grain filling periods on yield using crop growth model and field experiments.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1031-1031
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• 2001

The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.21 no.1 s.50
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• pp.38-48
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• 1982

This study was conducted to investigate the changes in moth occurrence of striped rice barer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), in relation to climatic factors, rice varieties, and cultural practices. The light trap data from 41 forecasting stations for 14 years from 1966 to 1979 were analyzed by means of the changes in the time and amount of borer occurrence in connection with the introduction of new rice varieties, the accumulated effective day-degree and its variation for completing one generation, and the climatic factors affecting the moth occurrence. The total number of moths caught by light traps in both spring and summer generations were considerably decreased with the wide cultivation of new rice varieties. In fact, the spring moths were remarkably decreased since the new varieties were introduced in 1972. The occurrence ratio of summer moths against the preceeding spring moths was higher in the middle region and middle southern mountainous area than the other regions. Its high ratio of regions was annually expanded from the middle region to the southern region. The $50\%$ emergence dates of both generations were later in the southeastern region than in the middle region. The ecological characteristics were clearly shown between the northern and southern region of Chupungryeong in terms of the occurrence of summer moths, the ratio of occurrence of summer moths to the preceeding spring moths, and $50\%$ emergence dates of the summer moths during the years of $1977\~1979$. The ratio of the summer moth occurrence to the preceeding generation was negatively correlated with the average temperature in lune and July, respectively, and the average precipitation in late June. The ratio of spring moth occurrence over the preceeding generation was positively correlated with the average temperature in September, October, November, and March, respectively, whereas it was negatively correlated with the average precipitation in early September and March, and the average humidity in early May. The effective day-degree for one generation was in the range from 600 to 900 DD at upper threshold $30^{\circ}C$ and lower threshold $10^{\circ}C$.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.261-269
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• 2018

The cowpea aphid Aphis craccivora Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a polyphagous species with a worldwide distribution. We investigated the temperature effects on development periods of nymphs, and the longevity and fecundity of apterous female of A. craccivora. The study was conducted at six constant temperatures of 10.0, 15.0, 20.0, 25, 30.0, and $32.5^{\circ}C$. A. craccivora developed successfully from nymph to adult stage at all temperatures subjected. The developmental rate of A. craccivora increased as temperature increased. The lower developmental threshold (LT) and thermal constant (K) of A. craccivora nymph stage were estimated by linear regression as $5.3^{\circ}C$ and 128.4 degree-days (DD), respectively. Lower and higher threshold temperatures (TL, TH and TH-TL, respectively) were calculated by the Sharpe_Schoolfield_Ikemoto (SSI) model as $17.0^{\circ}C$, $34.6^{\circ}C$ and $17.5^{\circ}C$. Developmental completion of nymph stages was described using a three-parameter Weibull function. Life table parameters were estimated. The intrinsic rate of increase was highest at $25^{\circ}C$, while the net reproductive rate was highest at $20^{\circ}C$. Biological characteristics of A. craccivora populations from different geographic areas were discussed.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.133-140
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• 2013

The developmental times of the immature stages of Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) were investigated at ten constant temperatures (12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20~30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs were successfully developed on each tested temperature regimes except $12.5^{\circ}C$ and its developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (22.5 days) and shortest at $32.5^{\circ}C$ (5.5 days). Nymphs successfully developed to the adult stage from $15^{\circ}C$ to $32.5^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. Developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (51.9 days) and it was decreased with increasing temperature up to $32.5^{\circ}C$ (9.0 days). The relationships between developmental rate and temperature were fitted by a linear model and seven nonlinear models (Analytis, Briere 1, 2, Lactin 2, Logan 6, Performance and modified Sharpe & DeMichele). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $12.3^{\circ}C$ respectively. The thermal constant required to complete egg and nymphal stage were 122.0 and 156.3 DD, respectively. The Briere 1 model was best fitted ($r^2$= 0.88~0.99) for all developmental stages, among seven nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by three non-linear models (2-parameter, 3-parameter Weibull and Logistic) ($r^2$= 0.91~0.96) except second and fifth instar.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.272-277
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• 2001

Objective : Polymethylmethacrylate(PMMA) is often used to reconstruct the spine after total corpectomy, but the exothermic curing of liquid PMMA poses a risk of thermal injury to the spinal cord. The purposes of this study are to analyze the heat blocking effect of pre-polymerized PMMA sheet in the corpectomy model and to establish the minimal thickness of PMMA sheet to protect the spinal cord from the thermal injury during PMMA cementation of vertebral body. Materials & Methods : An experimental fixture was fabricated with dimensions similar to those of a T12 corpectomy defect. Sixty milliliters of liquid PMMA were poured into the fixture, and temperature recordings were obtained at the center of the curing PMMA mass and on the undersurface(representing the spinal cord surface) of a prepolymerized PMMA sheet of variable thickness(group 1 : 0mm, group 2 : 5mm, or group 3 : 8mm). Six replicates were tested for each barrier thickness group. Results : Consistent temperatures($106.8{\pm}3.9^{\circ}C$) at center of the curing PMMA mass in eighteen experiments confirmed the reproducibility of the experimental fixture. Peak temperatures on the spinal cord surface were $47.3^{\circ}C$ in group 2, and $43.3^{\circ}C$ in group 3, compared with $60.0^{\circ}C$ in group 1(p<0.00005). So pre-polymerized PMMA provided statistically significant protection from heat transfer. The difference of peak temperature between theoretical and experimental value was less than 1%, while the predicted time was within 35% of experimental values. The data from the theoretical model indicate that a 10mm barrier of PMMA should protect the spinal cord from temperatures greater than $39^{\circ}C$(the threshold for thermal injury in the spinal cord). Conclusion : These results suggest that pre-polymerized PMMA sheet of 10mm thickness may protect the spinal cord from the thermal injury during PMMA reconstruction of vertebral body.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.305-312
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• 2010

The developmental time of immature stages of Paromius exiguus (Distant) was investigated at nine constant temperatures (15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20-30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10h (L:D). Eggs did not develop at $15^{\circ}C$, and their developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures. Its developmental time was longest at $17.5^{\circ}C$ (28.2 days) and shortest at $35^{\circ}C$ (5.9 days). The first nymphs failed to reach the next nymphal stage at 17.5 and $35^{\circ}C$. Nymphal developmental time decreased with increasing temperatures between $20^{\circ}C$ and $32.5^{\circ}C$, and developmental rate was decreased at temperatures above $30^{\circ}C$ in all stages except for the fourth nymphal stage. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature fit a linear model and three nonlinear models (Briere 1, Lactin 2, and Logan 6). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $l3.8^{\circ}C$ and $15.3^{\circ}C$, respectively. The thermal constant required to reach complete egg and the total nymphal stage was 109.9 and 312.5DD, respectively. The Logan-6 model was best fitted ($r^2$=0.94-0.99), among three nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.91-0.99).

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.421-429
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• 2012

The developmental time period of Aphis gossypii was studied in laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a cucumber plastic house. The mortality of A. gossypii in the laboratory was high in the 2nd (20.0%) and 3rd stage(13.3%) at low temperature but high in the 3rd (26.7%) and 4th stage (33.3%) at high temperatures. Mortality in the plastic house was high in the 1st and 2nd stage but there was no mortality in the 4th stage at low temperature. The total developmental period was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.2 days) in the laboratory and shortest at $28.5^{\circ}C$ (4.09 days) in the plastic house. The lower threshold temperature at the total nymphal stage was $6.8^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required to reach the total nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature fit the nonlinear model of Logan-6 which has the lowest value for the Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.89{\sim}0.96$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed outcomes. Thus it is considered that the model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for Aphis gossypii.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.223-252
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• 2008

In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.