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확률의 상관 빈도이론과 포퍼

  • Song, Ha-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Logic
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of the paper Is to discuss and estimate early Popper's theory of probability, which is presented in his book, The Logic of of Scientific Discovery. For this, Von Mises' frequency theory shall be discussed in detail, which is regarded as the most systematic and sophisticated frequency theory among others. Von Mises developed his theory to response to various critical questions such as how finite and empirical collectives can be represented in terms of infinite and mathematical collectives, and how the axiom of randomness can be mathematically formulated. But his theory still has another difficulty, which is concerned with the inconsistency between the axiom of convergence and the axiom of randomness. Defending the objective theory of probability, Popper tries to present his own frequency theory, solving the difficulty. He suggests that the axiom of convergence be given up and that the axiom of randomness be modified to solve Von Mises' problem. That is, Popper introduces the notion of ordinal selection and neighborhood selection to modify the axiom of randomness. He then shows that Bernoulli's theorem is derived from the modified axiom. Consequently, it can be said that Popper solves the problem of inconsistency which is regarded as crucial to Von Mises' theory. However, Popper's suggestion has not drawn much attention. I think it is because his theory seems anti-intuitive in the sense that it gives up the axiom of convergence which is the basis of the frequency theory So for more persuasive frequency theory, it is necessary to formulate the axiom of randomness to be consistent with the axiom of convergence.

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Admissibility of Subrogation Arbitration in the view of Firm Offer Hypothesis (확정오퍼가설 관점에서 바라 본 대위중재의 허용여부)

  • Cho, Chung-Kon
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.287-311
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    • 2013
  • The arbitration parties may disagree with the arbitrator's award about whether they are eligible for the dispute case. While lots of disputes cases relating to subrogation are arising, it is not easy to find subrogation arbitration system to handle them clearly. The main issue is an availability of subrogation arbitration in case of the dispute which the insurer requests the arbitration against the carrier according to the arbitration clause of Bill of Lading. The direct parties of arbitration clause of the B/L are the carrier and the holder of the B/L. Could the insurer get the position of the arbitration party in stead of the holder of the B/L after compensation if there was an accident of insurance on the way of carriage? Even though there are a few arbitral awards of subrogation, the reason of the eligibility of subrogation arbitration is not enough. This paper scrutinized precedent research papers, arbitration awards, judicial precedents, and the Automobile Subrogation Arbitration System. Vague dispute resolution system which burden corporations with so many costs must be not good for business. In the view of economic efficiency, blank of contract, reciprocality, and Coase Theorem, it is recommended that subrogation arbitration system for the international trade would be better focus on the hypothesis of "Firm Offer Character of Arbitration Clause."

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Effect of Partial Prestressing Ratio and Effective Prestress on the Flexural Behavior of Prestressed Lightweight Concrete Beams (프리스트레스트 경량 콘크리트 보의 휨 거동에 대한 부분 프리스트레싱비와 유효 프리스트레스의 영향)

  • Yang, Keun-Hyeok;Moon, Ju-Hyun;Byun, Hang-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2011
  • The present investigation evaluates the flexural behavior of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams under two-point symmetrical concentrated loads according to the variation of the partial prestressing ratio and the effective prestress of prestressing strands. The designed compressive strength of the lightweight concrete with a dry density of 1,770 $kg/m^3$ was 35 MPa. The deformed bar with a yield strength of 383 MPa and three-wire mono-strands with tensile strength of 2,040 MPa were used for longitudinal tensile reinforcement and prestressing steel reinforcement, respectively. According to the test results, the flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams increased with the increase of the partial prestressing ratio and was marginally influenced by the effective prestress of strands. With the same reinforcing index, the normalized flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams was similar to that of pre-tensioned normal-weight concrete beams tested by Harajli and Naaman and Bennett. On the other hand, the displacement ductility ratio of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams increased with the decrease of the partial prestressing ratio and with the increase of the effective prestress of strands. The load-displacement relationship of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beam specimens can be suitably predicted by the developed non-linear two-dimensional analysis procedure. In addition, the flexural cracking moment and flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams can be conservatively evaluated using the elasticity theorem and the approach specified in ACI 318-08, respectively.

An exact finite strip for the calculation of relative post-buckling stiffness of isotropic plates

  • Ovesy, H.R.;Ghannadpour, S.A.M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.181-210
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents the theoretical developments of an exact finite strip for the buckling and initial post-buckling analyses of isotropic flat plates. The so-called exact finite strip is assumed to be simply supported out-of-plane at the loaded ends. The strip is developed based on the concept that it is effectively a plate. The present method, which is designated by the name Full-analytical Finite Strip Method in this paper, provides an efficient and extremely accurate buckling solution. In the development process, the Von-Karman's equilibrium equation is solved exactly to obtain the buckling loads and the corresponding form of out-of-plane buckling deflection modes. The investigation of thin flat plate buckling behavior is then extended to an initial post-buckling study with the assumption that the deflected form immediately after the buckling is the same as that obtained for the buckling. It is noted that in the present method, only one of the calculated out-of-plane buckling deflection modes, corresponding to the lowest buckling load, i.e., the first mode is used for the initial post-buckling study. Thus, the postbuckling study is effectively a single-term analysis, which is attempted by utilizing the so-called semi-energy method. In this method, the Von-Karman's compatibility equation governing the behavior of isotropic flat plates is used together with a consideration of the total strain energy of the plate. Through the solution of the compatibility equation, the in-plane displacement functions which are themselves related to the Airy stress function are developed in terms of the unknown coefficient in the assumed out-of-plane deflection function. These in-plane and out-of-plane deflected functions are then substituted in the total strain energy expressions and the theorem of minimum total potential energy is applied to solve for the unknown coefficient. The developed method is subsequently applied to analyze the initial postbuckling behavior of some representative thin flat plates for which the results are also obtained through the application of a semi-analytical finite strip method. Through the comparison of the results and the appropriate discussion, the knowledge of the level of capability of the developed method is significantly promoted.

A Potential-Based Panel Method for the Analysis of A Two-Dimensional Super-Cavitating Hydrofoil (양력판(揚力板) 이론(理論)에 의(依)한 2차원(次元) 수중익(水中翼)의 초월(超越) 공동(空洞) 문제(問題) 해석(解析))

  • Y.G. Kim;C.S. Lee;J.T. Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.159-173
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    • 1991
  • This paper describes a potential-based panel method formulated for the analysis of a super-cavitating two-dimensional hydrofoil. The method employs normal dipoles and sources distributed on the foil and cavity surfaces to represent the potential flow around the cavitating hydrofoil. The kinematic boundary condition on the wetted portion of the foil surface is satisfied by requiring that the total potential vanish in the fictitious inner flow region of the foil, and the dynamic boundary condition on the cavity surface is satisfied by requiring thats the potential vary linearly, i.e., the tangential velocity be constant. Green's theorem then results in a potential-based integral equation rather than the usual velocity-based formulation of Hess & Smith type. With the singularities distributed on the exact hydrofoil surface, the pressure distributions are predicted with improved accuracy compared to those of the linearized lilting surface theory, especially near the leading edge. The theory then predicts the cavity shape and cavitation number for an assumed cavity length. To improve the accuracy, the sources and dipoles on the cavity surface are moved to the newly computed cavity surface, where the boundary conditions are satisfied again. This iteration process is repeated until the results are converged. Characteristics of iteration and discretization of the present numerical method are much faster and more stable than the existing nonlinear theories. The theory shows good correlations with the existing theories and experimental results for the super-cavitating flow. In the region of small angles of attack, the present prediction shows and excellent comparison with the Geurst's linear theory. For the long cavity, the method recovers the trends of the Wu's nonlinear theory. In the intermediate regions of the short super-cavitation, the method compares very well with the experimental results of Parkin and also those of Silberman.

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The Four Color Algorithm (4-색 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2013
  • This paper proposes an algorithm that proves an NP-complete 4-color theorem by employing a linear time complexity where $O(n)$. The proposed algorithm accurately halves the vertex set V of the graph $G=(V_1,E_1)$ into the Maximum Independent Set (MIS) $\bar{C_1}$ and the Minimum Vertex Cover Set $C_1$. It then assigns the first color to $\bar{C_1}$ and the second to $\bar{C_2}$, which, along with $C_2$, is halved from the connected graph $G=(V_2,E_2)$, a reduced set of the remaining vertices. Subsequently, the third color is assigned to $\bar{C_3}$, which, along with $C_3$, is halved from the connected graph $G=(V_3,E_3)$, a further reduced set of the remaining vertices. Lastly, denoting $C_3$ as $\bar{C_4}$, the algorithm assigns the forth color to $\bar{C_4}$. The algorithm has successfully obtained the chromatic number ${\chi}(G)=4$ with 100% probability, when applied to two actual map and two planar graphs. The proposed "four color algorithm", therefore, could be employed as a general algorithm to determine four-color for planar graphs.

Expand public interest of Private Security activities (민간경비 활동의 공익성 확대 논의)

  • Gong, Bae Wan;Park, Yong Soo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2014
  • Private security organizations are complementary to the national safety of life and property of individuals as a social role to play in maintaining peace and order. Pursuit of profit is to the public practice according to the logic of capitalist markets and customers seeking to protect the lives and property. However, the legal and institutional constraints of private security is being requirements inhibited by the development. Crime prevention as a private security role that the private companies, which will pursue the public interest. After all, the expansion of the private security crime is results in an increase in unit. The current level of private security in the 1970s remain, and the constraints is being under goodwill and expertise outside of the training system on the market. Variety of crimes, including cyber crime increases and considering the reality of the constraints on private security requirements are able to improve or supplement shall be realistic. In particular, the legal, regulatory and institutional factors must be improved, with goodwill, and for the creation of new industrial policy as a complement to the public interest should be also provided. The private security law interests through integration of private security guards should be guaranteed, and the term of the theorem, sales activities, ensuring the training of professional staff with professional qualifications system is to be settled. As a private security guard industry growth and development can be based on this composition.

The Prognostic Factors of Solitary Pulmonary Nodule (고립성 폐결절의 예후에 관여하는 인자)

  • Jeong, Yun-Seop;Kim, Ju-Hyeon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.425-435
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    • 1989
  • The solitary pulmonary nodule is considered as a round or ovoid lesion with sharp, circumscribed borders, surrounded by normal appearing lung parenchyme on all sides, and found on a simple chest X-ray without any particular symptoms or signs. There is a wide spectrum of pathologic conditions in the solitary pulmonary nodules prove to be malignant tumors, either primary or metastatic. Most Benign granulomas and other benign conditions can also be seen as solitary nodules. The resection of solitary malignant nodules results in a surprisingly high 5-year survival rate. On the contrary, most benign nodules do not need to be resected and a period of prolonged observation and nonsurgical management is usually indicated. Therefore, the best approach to the controversial management of solitary pulmonary nodules depends on finding factors affecting the probability of malignancy. In this article, clinical records and chest roentgenographies of 60 patients operated on over the past 8 years at the Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital were reviewed. There were 15 malignant nodules and 45 benign nodules and the prevalence of malignancy was 25%. The most common pathologic entity was tuberculoma [21 cases]. The mean age was 55.5*9.6 years in the malignant group, 45.8>12.5 years in the benign group and there was a significant statistical difference between the two groups [P < 0.05]. The malignant ratio in each age group increased with advancing age. The average smoking amount was 35.6*12.9 cigarettes per day in malignant smokers, 20.9* 12.0 cigarettes per day in benign smokers, and there was a significant statistical difference between the two groups [p< 0.05]. The malignant ratio also increased with the increasing smoking amount. Comparing the appearance of the nodule on chest films, 6 calcifications and 7 cavitations were found only in benign nodules, not in malignant nodules. Therefore, calcification and cavitation can be considered as preferential findings for benignity. Previous cancer history was also a significant factor deciding the prognosis of the nodule [p< 0.05]. The average diameter on chest X-ray was 3.07*0.82 cm in malignant nodules, 3.25*1.04 cm in benign nodules and there was no significant statistical difference between the two groups [p< 0.05]. The author used Bayes theorem to develop a simple method for combining individual clinical or radiological factors of patients with solitary nodules into an overall estimate of the probability that the nodule is malignant. In conclusion, patient age, smoking amount, appearance of nodule on chest film such as calcification and cavitation, and previous cancer history were found to be strongly associated with malignancy, but size of nodule was not associated with malignancy. Since these prognostic factors have been found retrospectively, prospective controlled studies are needed to determine whether these factors have really prognostic significance.

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Burning Characteristics of Nitramine Propellant Embedded with Metal Wires (금속선을 삽입한 니트라민계 추진제의 연소특성)

  • 유지창
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2000
  • Burning rate of the matrix propellant($r_{sb}$) and burning rate along the metal wire($r_w$) were measured and analyzed for the HTPB/AP/Al propellant embedded with Ag wire($\phi$0.15mm) according to weight % of RDX(0~20%). Variation of burning rate increment ratio($r_w$/$r_{sb}$) and pressure exponent(n) was studied for the nitramine propellant having 10% RDX embedded with three kinds of metal(Ag, Cu, and Ni-Cr) of which diameter range is between 0.1~0.6mm. Maximum burning rate increment ratio of the nitramine propellant embedded with Ag wire($\phi$0.1mm) was 5.94 at $20^{\cire}C$, 1000 psia, 16.4% faster than that of HTPB/AP propellant, it is because that autoignition temperature of the nitramine propellant was higher than that of HTPB/AP propellant. Standard deviation of absolute ($r_{wc}$/$r_{we}$)/$r_{we}$ calculated by using new empiracal equation composed of four dimensionless groups, is 6.11% less than that calculated by using original empirical equation composed of three dimensionless group. The new empiracal equation is derived from Buckingham pi theorem using the parameters such as thermal diffusivity, melting temperature. wire diameter, propellant sample diameter, frame temperature, autoignition temperature and matrix burning rate which influence on $r_w$.

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Error analysis on factorization and the effect of online individualization classes (인수분해에 대한 오류 분석과 온라인 개별화 수업의 효과)

  • Choi, Dong-won;Heo, Haeja
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.83-105
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we analyzed the misconceptions and errors incurred during factorization learning. We also examined whether online individualization classes had a positive effect on students' mathematical achievement. The experiment was conducted for 4 weeks (16 times in total) on middle school juniors in rural areas of Gyeonggi Province, where the influence of private extra education was small. In the class, the 'Google Classroom' was used as a LMS, the video lecture was uploaded to YouTube, and the teacher interacted with the students through "Zoom" and "Facetalk". In the online class situation, students' assignments and test answers were checked in real time through 'Google Classroom', and immediate feedback was provided to the experimental class group's students. However, for the control group students, feedback was provided only to those who desired. A total of 7 achievement evaluations were conducted in the order of pre-test, formative evaluation (5 times), and post-test to confirm the change in students' ability improvement and achievement. Through the formative evaluation analysis, it was possible to grasp the types of errors and misconceptions that occured during the factorization process. Students' errors were divided into four types: theorem or definition distortion error, functional errors such as calculation, operation, and manipulation, errors that do not verify the solution, and no response. As a result of ANCOVA, the two groups did not show any difference from the 1st to 4th formative assessment. However, the 5th formative assessment and post-test showed statistically significant differences, confirming that online individualization classes contributed to improvemed achievement.