• Title/Summary/Keyword: Systems engineering

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Incorporating Social Relationship discovered from User's Behavior into Collaborative Filtering (사용자 행동 기반의 사회적 관계를 결합한 사용자 협업적 여과 방법)

  • Thay, Setha;Ha, Inay;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, social network is a huge communication platform for providing people to connect with one another and to bring users together to share common interests, experiences, and their daily activities. Users spend hours per day in maintaining personal information and interacting with other people via posting, commenting, messaging, games, social events, and applications. Due to the growth of user's distributed information in social network, there is a great potential to utilize the social data to enhance the quality of recommender system. There are some researches focusing on social network analysis that investigate how social network can be used in recommendation domain. Among these researches, we are interested in taking advantages of the interaction between a user and others in social network that can be determined and known as social relationship. Furthermore, mostly user's decisions before purchasing some products depend on suggestion of people who have either the same preferences or closer relationship. For this reason, we believe that user's relationship in social network can provide an effective way to increase the quality in prediction user's interests of recommender system. Therefore, social relationship between users encountered from social network is a common factor to improve the way of predicting user's preferences in the conventional approach. Recommender system is dramatically increasing in popularity and currently being used by many e-commerce sites such as Amazon.com, Last.fm, eBay.com, etc. Collaborative filtering (CF) method is one of the essential and powerful techniques in recommender system for suggesting the appropriate items to user by learning user's preferences. CF method focuses on user data and generates automatic prediction about user's interests by gathering information from users who share similar background and preferences. Specifically, the intension of CF method is to find users who have similar preferences and to suggest target user items that were mostly preferred by those nearest neighbor users. There are two basic units that need to be considered by CF method, the user and the item. Each user needs to provide his rating value on items i.e. movies, products, books, etc to indicate their interests on those items. In addition, CF uses the user-rating matrix to find a group of users who have similar rating with target user. Then, it predicts unknown rating value for items that target user has not rated. Currently, CF has been successfully implemented in both information filtering and e-commerce applications. However, it remains some important challenges such as cold start, data sparsity, and scalability reflected on quality and accuracy of prediction. In order to overcome these challenges, many researchers have proposed various kinds of CF method such as hybrid CF, trust-based CF, social network-based CF, etc. In the purpose of improving the recommendation performance and prediction accuracy of standard CF, in this paper we propose a method which integrates traditional CF technique with social relationship between users discovered from user's behavior in social network i.e. Facebook. We identify user's relationship from behavior of user such as posts and comments interacted with friends in Facebook. We believe that social relationship implicitly inferred from user's behavior can be likely applied to compensate the limitation of conventional approach. Therefore, we extract posts and comments of each user by using Facebook Graph API and calculate feature score among each term to obtain feature vector for computing similarity of user. Then, we combine the result with similarity value computed using traditional CF technique. Finally, our system provides a list of recommended items according to neighbor users who have the biggest total similarity value to the target user. In order to verify and evaluate our proposed method we have performed an experiment on data collected from our Movies Rating System. Prediction accuracy evaluation is conducted to demonstrate how much our algorithm gives the correctness of recommendation to user in terms of MAE. Then, the evaluation of performance is made to show the effectiveness of our method in terms of precision, recall, and F1-measure. Evaluation on coverage is also included in our experiment to see the ability of generating recommendation. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperform and more accurate in suggesting items to users with better performance. The effectiveness of user's behavior in social network particularly shows the significant improvement by up to 6% on recommendation accuracy. Moreover, experiment of recommendation performance shows that incorporating social relationship observed from user's behavior into CF is beneficial and useful to generate recommendation with 7% improvement of performance compared with benchmark methods. Finally, we confirm that interaction between users in social network is able to enhance the accuracy and give better recommendation in conventional approach.

A Study on Intelligent Value Chain Network System based on Firms' Information (기업정보 기반 지능형 밸류체인 네트워크 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Moon, Young-Su;Lee, Ho-Shin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2018
  • Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.

Stock Price Prediction by Utilizing Category Neutral Terms: Text Mining Approach (카테고리 중립 단어 활용을 통한 주가 예측 방안: 텍스트 마이닝 활용)

  • Lee, Minsik;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2017
  • Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

Change Acceptable In-Depth Searching in LOD Cloud for Efficient Knowledge Expansion (효과적인 지식확장을 위한 LOD 클라우드에서의 변화수용적 심층검색)

  • Kim, Kwangmin;Sohn, Yonglak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.171-193
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    • 2018
  • LOD(Linked Open Data) cloud is a practical implementation of semantic web. We suggested a new method that provides identity links conveniently in LOD cloud. It also allows changes in LOD to be reflected to searching results without any omissions. LOD provides detail descriptions of entities to public in RDF triple form. RDF triple is composed of subject, predicates, and objects and presents detail description for an entity. Links in LOD cloud, named identity links, are realized by asserting entities of different RDF triples to be identical. Currently, the identity link is provided with creating a link triple explicitly in which associates its subject and object with source and target entities. Link triples are appended to LOD. With identity links, a knowledge achieves from an LOD can be expanded with different knowledge from different LODs. The goal of LOD cloud is providing opportunity of knowledge expansion to users. Appending link triples to LOD, however, has serious difficulties in discovering identity links between entities one by one notwithstanding the enormous scale of LOD. Newly added entities cannot be reflected to searching results until identity links heading for them are serialized and published to LOD cloud. Instead of creating enormous identity links, we propose LOD to prepare its own link policy. The link policy specifies a set of target LODs to link and constraints necessary to discover identity links to entities on target LODs. On searching, it becomes possible to access newly added entities and reflect them to searching results without any omissions by referencing the link policies. Link policy specifies a set of predicate pairs for discovering identity between associated entities in source and target LODs. For the link policy specification, we have suggested a set of vocabularies that conform to RDFS and OWL. Identity between entities is evaluated in accordance with a similarity of the source and the target entities' objects which have been associated with the predicates' pair in the link policy. We implemented a system "Change Acceptable In-Depth Searching System(CAIDS)". With CAIDS, user's searching request starts from depth_0 LOD, i.e. surface searching. Referencing the link policies of LODs, CAIDS proceeds in-depth searching, next LODs of next depths. To supplement identity links derived from the link policies, CAIDS uses explicit link triples as well. Following the identity links, CAIDS's in-depth searching progresses. Content of an entity obtained from depth_0 LOD expands with the contents of entities of other LODs which have been discovered to be identical to depth_0 LOD entity. Expanding content of depth_0 LOD entity without user's cognition of such other LODs is the implementation of knowledge expansion. It is the goal of LOD cloud. The more identity links in LOD cloud, the wider content expansions in LOD cloud. We have suggested a new way to create identity links abundantly and supply them to LOD cloud. Experiments on CAIDS performed against DBpedia LODs of Korea, France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. They present that CAIDS provides appropriate expansion ratio and inclusion ratio as long as degree of similarity between source and target objects is 0.8 ~ 0.9. Expansion ratio, for each depth, depicts the ratio of the entities discovered at the depth to the entities of depth_0 LOD. For each depth, inclusion ratio illustrates the ratio of the entities discovered only with explicit links to the entities discovered only with link policies. In cases of similarity degrees with under 0.8, expansion becomes excessive and thus contents become distorted. Similarity degree of 0.8 ~ 0.9 provides appropriate amount of RDF triples searched as well. Experiments have evaluated confidence degree of contents which have been expanded in accordance with in-depth searching. Confidence degree of content is directly coupled with identity ratio of an entity, which means the degree of identity to the entity of depth_0 LOD. Identity ratio of an entity is obtained by multiplying source LOD's confidence and source entity's identity ratio. By tracing the identity links in advance, LOD's confidence is evaluated in accordance with the amount of identity links incoming to the entities in the LOD. While evaluating the identity ratio, concept of identity agreement, which means that multiple identity links head to a common entity, has been considered. With the identity agreement concept, experimental results present that identity ratio decreases as depth deepens, but rebounds as the depth deepens more. For each entity, as the number of identity links increases, identity ratio rebounds early and reaches at 1 finally. We found out that more than 8 identity links for each entity would lead users to give their confidence to the contents expanded. Link policy based in-depth searching method, we proposed, is expected to contribute to abundant identity links provisions to LOD cloud.

A three-dimensional finite-element analysis of influence of splinting in mandibular posterior implants (스프린팅이 하악 구치부 임플랜트 보철물의 응력분산에 미치는 영향에 관한 삼차원 유한요소분석 연구)

  • Baik, Sang-Hyun;Jang, Ik-Tae;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Koak, Jai-Young;Heo, Seong-Joo
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2008
  • Statement of problem: Over the past two decades, implant supported fixed prosthesis have been widely used. However, there are few studies conducted systematically and intensively on the splinting effect of implant systems in mandible. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in stress distributions in the mandibular implants with splinting or non-splinting crowns by performing finite element analysis. Materials and methods: Cortical and cancellous bone were modeled as homogeneous, transversely isotropic, linearly elastic. Perfect bonding was assumed at all interfaces. Implant models were classified as follows. Group 1: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 2: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type Group 3: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 4: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type An load of 100N was applied vertically and horizontally. Stress levels were calculated using von Mises stresses values. Results: 1. The stress distribution and maximum von Mises stress of two-length implants (8.5mm, 13mm) was similar. 2. The stress of vertical load concentrated on mesial side of implant while the stress of horizontal load was distributed on both side of implant. 3. Stress of internal connection type was spreading through abutment screw but the stress of external connection type was concentrated on cortical bone level. 4. Degree of stress reduction was higher in the external connection type than in the internal connection type.

Automatic gasometer reading system using selective optical character recognition (관심 문자열 인식 기술을 이용한 가스계량기 자동 검침 시스템)

  • Lee, Kyohyuk;Kim, Taeyeon;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we suggest an application system architecture which provides accurate, fast and efficient automatic gasometer reading function. The system captures gasometer image using mobile device camera, transmits the image to a cloud server on top of private LTE network, and analyzes the image to extract character information of device ID and gas usage amount by selective optical character recognition based on deep learning technology. In general, there are many types of character in an image and optical character recognition technology extracts all character information in an image. But some applications need to ignore non-of-interest types of character and only have to focus on some specific types of characters. For an example of the application, automatic gasometer reading system only need to extract device ID and gas usage amount character information from gasometer images to send bill to users. Non-of-interest character strings, such as device type, manufacturer, manufacturing date, specification and etc., are not valuable information to the application. Thus, the application have to analyze point of interest region and specific types of characters to extract valuable information only. We adopted CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) based object detection and CRNN (Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network) technology for selective optical character recognition which only analyze point of interest region for selective character information extraction. We build up 3 neural networks for the application system. The first is a convolutional neural network which detects point of interest region of gas usage amount and device ID information character strings, the second is another convolutional neural network which transforms spatial information of point of interest region to spatial sequential feature vectors, and the third is bi-directional long short term memory network which converts spatial sequential information to character strings using time-series analysis mapping from feature vectors to character strings. In this research, point of interest character strings are device ID and gas usage amount. Device ID consists of 12 arabic character strings and gas usage amount consists of 4 ~ 5 arabic character strings. All system components are implemented in Amazon Web Service Cloud with Intel Zeon E5-2686 v4 CPU and NVidia TESLA V100 GPU. The system architecture adopts master-lave processing structure for efficient and fast parallel processing coping with about 700,000 requests per day. Mobile device captures gasometer image and transmits to master process in AWS cloud. Master process runs on Intel Zeon CPU and pushes reading request from mobile device to an input queue with FIFO (First In First Out) structure. Slave process consists of 3 types of deep neural networks which conduct character recognition process and runs on NVidia GPU module. Slave process is always polling the input queue to get recognition request. If there are some requests from master process in the input queue, slave process converts the image in the input queue to device ID character string, gas usage amount character string and position information of the strings, returns the information to output queue, and switch to idle mode to poll the input queue. Master process gets final information form the output queue and delivers the information to the mobile device. We used total 27,120 gasometer images for training, validation and testing of 3 types of deep neural network. 22,985 images were used for training and validation, 4,135 images were used for testing. We randomly splitted 22,985 images with 8:2 ratio for training and validation respectively for each training epoch. 4,135 test image were categorized into 5 types (Normal, noise, reflex, scale and slant). Normal data is clean image data, noise means image with noise signal, relfex means image with light reflection in gasometer region, scale means images with small object size due to long-distance capturing and slant means images which is not horizontally flat. Final character string recognition accuracies for device ID and gas usage amount of normal data are 0.960 and 0.864 respectively.

Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags with Semantic Relationship on Social-web to Support Effective Search (효율적 자원 탐색을 위한 소셜 웹 태그들을 이용한 동적 가상 온톨로지 생성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Jung;Sohn, Mye
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2013
  • In this research, a proposed Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags (DyVOT) supports dynamic search of resources depending on user's requirements using tags from social web driven resources. It is general that the tags are defined by annotations of a series of described words by social users who usually tags social information resources such as web-page, images, u-tube, videos, etc. Therefore, tags are characterized and mirrored by information resources. Therefore, it is possible for tags as meta-data to match into some resources. Consequently, we can extract semantic relationships between tags owing to the dependency of relationships between tags as representatives of resources. However, to do this, there is limitation because there are allophonic synonym and homonym among tags that are usually marked by a series of words. Thus, research related to folksonomies using tags have been applied to classification of words by semantic-based allophonic synonym. In addition, some research are focusing on clustering and/or classification of resources by semantic-based relationships among tags. In spite of, there also is limitation of these research because these are focusing on semantic-based hyper/hypo relationships or clustering among tags without consideration of conceptual associative relationships between classified or clustered groups. It makes difficulty to effective searching resources depending on user requirements. In this research, the proposed DyVOT uses tags and constructs ontologyfor effective search. We assumed that tags are extracted from user requirements, which are used to construct multi sub-ontology as combinations of tags that are composed of a part of the tags or all. In addition, the proposed DyVOT constructs ontology which is based on hierarchical and associative relationships among tags for effective search of a solution. The ontology is composed of static- and dynamic-ontology. The static-ontology defines semantic-based hierarchical hyper/hypo relationships among tags as in (http://semanticcloud.sandra-siegel.de/) with a tree structure. From the static-ontology, the DyVOT extracts multi sub-ontology using multi sub-tag which are constructed by parts of tags. Finally, sub-ontology are constructed by hierarchy paths which contain the sub-tag. To create dynamic-ontology by the proposed DyVOT, it is necessary to define associative relationships among multi sub-ontology that are extracted from hierarchical relationships of static-ontology. The associative relationship is defined by shared resources between tags which are linked by multi sub-ontology. The association is measured by the degree of shared resources that are allocated into the tags of sub-ontology. If the value of association is larger than threshold value, then associative relationship among tags is newly created. The associative relationships are used to merge and construct new hierarchy the multi sub-ontology. To construct dynamic-ontology, it is essential to defined new class which is linked by two more sub-ontology, which is generated by merged tags which are highly associative by proving using shared resources. Thereby, the class is applied to generate new hierarchy with extracted multi sub-ontology to create a dynamic-ontology. The new class is settle down on the ontology. So, the newly created class needs to be belong to the dynamic-ontology. So, the class used to new hyper/hypo hierarchy relationship between the class and tags which are linked to multi sub-ontology. At last, DyVOT is developed by newly defined associative relationships which are extracted from hierarchical relationships among tags. Resources are matched into the DyVOT which narrows down search boundary and shrinks the search paths. Finally, we can create the DyVOT using the newly defined associative relationships. While static data catalog (Dean and Ghemawat, 2004; 2008) statically searches resources depending on user requirements, the proposed DyVOT dynamically searches resources using multi sub-ontology by parallel processing. In this light, the DyVOT supports improvement of correctness and agility of search and decreasing of search effort by reduction of search path.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

Animal Infectious Diseases Prevention through Big Data and Deep Learning (빅데이터와 딥러닝을 활용한 동물 감염병 확산 차단)

  • Kim, Sung Hyun;Choi, Joon Ki;Kim, Jae Seok;Jang, Ah Reum;Lee, Jae Ho;Cha, Kyung Jin;Lee, Sang Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2018
  • Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

A Study on Estimating Shear Strength of Continuum Rock Slope (연속체 암반비탈면의 강도정수 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Lee, Su-gon;Lee, Byok-Kyu;Woo, Jae-Gyung;Hur, Ik;Lee, Jun-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2019
  • Considering the natural phenomenon in which steep slopes ($65^{\circ}{\sim}85^{\circ}$) consisting of rock mass remain stable for decades, slopes steeper than 1:0.5 (the standard of slope angle for blast rock) may be applied in geotechnical conditions which are similar to those above at the design and initial construction stages. In the process of analysing the stability of a good to fair continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope, a general method of estimating rock mass strength properties from design practice perspective was required. Practical and genealized engineering methods of determining the properties of a rock mass are important for a good continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope. The Genealized Hoek-Brown (H-B) failure criterion and GSI (Geological Strength Index), which were revised and supplemented by Hoek et al. (2002), were assessed as rock mass characterization systems fully taking into account the effects of discontinuities, and were widely utilized as a method for calculating equivalent Mohr-Coulomb shear strength (balancing the areas) according to stress changes. The concept of calculating equivalent M-C shear strength according to the change of confining stress range was proposed, and on a slope, the equivalent shear strength changes sensitively with changes in the maximum confining stress (${{\sigma}^{\prime}}_{3max}$ or normal stress), making it difficult to use it in practical design. In this study, the method of estimating the strength properties (an iso-angle division method) that can be applied universally within the maximum confining stress range for a good to fair continuum rock mass slope is proposed by applying the H-B failure criterion. In order to assess the validity and applicability of the proposed method of estimating the shear strength (A), the rock slope, which is a study object, was selected as the type of rock (igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary) on the steep slope near the existing working design site. It is compared and analyzed with the equivalent M-C shear strength (balancing the areas) proposed by Hoek. The equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method and iso-angle division method was estimated using the RocLab program (geotechnical properties calculation software based on the H-B failure criterion (2002)) by using the basic data of the laboratory rock triaxial compression test at the existing working design site and the face mapping of discontinuities on the rock slope of study area. The calculated equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method was interlinked to show very large or small cohesion and internal friction angles (generally, greater than $45^{\circ}$). The equivalent M-C shear strength of the iso-angle division is in-between the equivalent M-C shear properties of the balancing the areas, and the internal friction angles show a range of $30^{\circ}$ to $42^{\circ}$. We compared and analyzed the shear strength (A) of the iso-angle division method at the study area with the shear strength (B) of the existing working design site with similar or the same grade RMR each other. The application of the proposed iso-angle division method was indirectly evaluated through the results of the stability analysis (limit equilibrium analysis and finite element analysis) applied with these the strength properties. The difference between A and B of the shear strength is about 10%. LEM results (in wet condition) showed that Fs (A) = 14.08~58.22 (average 32.9) and Fs (B) = 18.39~60.04 (average 32.2), which were similar in accordance with the same rock types. As a result of FEM, displacement (A) = 0.13~0.65 mm (average 0.27 mm) and displacement (B) = 0.14~1.07 mm (average 0.37 mm). Using the GSI and Hoek-Brown failure criterion, the significant result could be identified in the application evaluation. Therefore, the strength properties of rock mass estimated by the iso-angle division method could be applied with practical shear strength.