• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.147-168
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• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.131-145
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• 2020

In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.205-211
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• 2000

This study was conducted to evaluate the residual effects of basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag applied in rice paddy fields as soil conditioner one year before. The experimental fields of Lim et al. (2000) located in Youjung and Nampyung were used for this purpose. Both variety (Oryza sativa L. cv. Dongjinbyeo) and cultural practices were the same as those in Lim et al. (2000). Soil chemical properties, plant height, number of tillers per plant, yield and yield components were observed. The temporal variation of treatment mean value in soil chemical properties appeared to be similar trends in both Youjung and Nampyung experimental fields. Soil pH and Ca content were still significantly higher than those in control treatment up to July of the second season, but decreased progressively as time passed. However, the effects lasted longer as slag rate became higher. BOF slag seems to have residual effects as a soil conditioner or Ca fertilizer in soil for two years. BOF slag rate of $4Mg\;ha^{-1}$ raised soil pH almost the same as lime rate of $2Mg\;ha^{-1}$. Content of $SiO_2$ in soil applied slag appeared to be higher compared with control. Fe and Mg content in soil with slag treatment was significantly higher than that of control in 1997, but it was almost the same level as that of control in 1998. In YouJung experimental field, rough rice yield of slag teatment became higher as slage rate incresed. Slag rate of $12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed the highest rough rice yield of $5,400kg\;ha^{-1}$ among treatment, which was 14% higher than that of control with $4,720kg\;ha^{-1}$. Slag rate of $12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed relatively higher plant height and higher number of tillers at the early growth stage compared with other treatments. In NamPyung experimental field, rough rice yield was the highest at the plot of lime rate $2Mg\;ha^{-1}$ and became higher as slag rate increased. There were no significant differences in rough rice yield between lime treatment and slag treatments. Slag rate of $12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed the highest rough rice yield of $7,170kg\;ha^{-1}$ among slag treatment, which was 8% significantly higher than that of control with $6,670kg\;ha^{-1}$. Slag rate of $12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed relatively slower growth in plant height at the early growth stage, but superior growth at the later growth stage, and significantly higher number of spiklets per panicle and 1000-grain weight than that of control.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.339-353
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• 1994

Background : The p53 gene codes for a DNA-binding nuclear phosphoprotein that appears to inhibit the progression of cells from the G1 to the S phase of the cell cycle. Mutations of the p53 gene are common in a wide variety of human cancers, including lung cancer. In lung cancers, point mutations of the p53 gene have been found in all histological types including approximately 45% of resected NSCLC and even more frequently in SCLC specimens. Mutant forms of the p53 protein have transforming activity and interfere with the cell-cycle regulatory function of the wild-type protein. The majority of p53 gene mutations produce proteins with altered conformation and prolonged half life; these mutant proteins accumulate in the cell nucleus and can be detected by immunohistochemical staining. But protein overexpression has been reported in the absence of mutation. p53 protein overexpression or gene mutation is reported poor prognostic factor in breast cancer, but in lung cancer, its prognostic significance is controversial. Method : We investigated the p53 abnormalities by nucleotide sequencing, polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism(PCR-SSCP), and immunohistochemical staining. We correlated these results with each other and survival in 75 patients with NSCLC resected with curative intent. Overexpression of the p53 protein was studied immunohistochemically in archival paraffin- embedded tumor samples using the D07(Novocastra, U.K.) antibody. Overexpression of p53 protein was defined by the nuclear staining of greater than 25% immunopositive cells in tumors. Detection of p53 gene mutation was done by PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing from the exon 5-9 of p53 gene. Result: 1) Of the 75 patients, 36%(27/75) showed p53 overexpression by immunohistochemical stain. There was no survival difference between positive and negative p53 immunostaining(overall median survival of 26 months, disease free median survival of 13 months in both groups). 2) By PCR-SSCP, 27.6%(16/58) of the patients showed mobility shift. There was no significant difference in survival according to mobility shift(overall median survival of 27 in patients without mobility shift vs 20 months in patients with mobility shift, disease free median survival of 8 months vs 10 months respectively). 3) Nucleotide sequence was analysed from 29 patients, and 34.5%(10/29) had mutant p53 sequence. Patients with the presence of gene mutations showed tendency to shortened survival compared with the patients with no mutation(overall median survival of 22 vs 27 months, disease free median survival of 10 vs 20 months), but there was no statistical significance. 4) The sensitivity and specificity of immunostain based on PCR-SSCP was 67.0%, 74.0%, and that of the PCR-SSCP based on the nucleotide sequencing was 91.8%, 96.2% respectively. The concordance rate between the immunostain and PCR-SSCP was 62.5%, and the rate between the PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing was 95.3%. Conclusion : In terms of detection of p53 gene mutation, PCR-SSCP was superior to immunostaining. p53 gene abnormalities either overexpression or mutation were not a significant prognostic factor in NSCLC patients resected with curative intent. However, patients with the mutated p53 gene showed the trends of early relapse.