• Title/Summary/Keyword: Success Models

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Success of a Cervical Cancer Screening Program: Trends in Incidence in Songkhla, Southern Thailand, 1989-2010, and Prediction of Future Incidences to 2030

  • Sriplung, Hutcha;Singkham, Phathai;Iamsirithaworn, Sopon;Jiraphongsa, Chuleeporn;Bilheem, Surichai
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.22
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    • pp.10003-10008
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    • 2014
  • Background: Cervical cancer has been a leading female cancer in Thailand for decades, and has been second to breast cancer after 2007. The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has provided opportunistic screening with Pap smears for more than 30 years. In 2002, the MoPH and the National Health Security Office provided countrywide systematic screening of cervical cancer to all Thai women aged 35-60 years under universal health care coverage insurance scheme at 5-year intervals. Objectives: This study characterized the cervical cancer incidence trends in Songkhla in southern Thailand using joinpoint and age period cohort (APC) analysis to observe the effect of cervical cancer screening activities in the past decades, and to project cervical cancer rates in the province, to 2030. Materials and Methods: Invasive and in situ cervical cancer cases were extracted from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 through 2010. Age standardized incidence rates were estimated. Trends in incidences were evaluated by joinpoint and APC regression models. The Norpred package was modified for R and was used to project the future trends to 2030 using the power of 5 function and cut trend method. Results: Cervical cancer incidence in Songkhla peaked around 1998-2000 and then dropped by -4.7% per year. APC analysis demonstrated that in situ tumors caused an increase in incidence in early ages, younger cohorts, and in later years of diagnosis. Conclusions: Both joinpoint and APC analysis give the same conclusion in continuation of a declining trend of cervical cancer to 2030 but with different rates and the predicted goal of ASR below 10 or even 5 per 100,000 women by 2030 would be achieved. Thus, maintenance and improvement of the screening program should be continued. Other population based cancer registries in Thailand should analyze their data to confirm the success of cervical cancer screening policy of Thailand.

Marketing Strategies in the Film Industry: Investment Decision Game Model (영화산업에서의 마케팅 전략 : 투자 결정 게임 모형을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The movie market has the characteristics of being a perfectly competitive market as well as a pure monopolistic market at the same time. This is because there are competitors in the industry but prices, although not fixed, have not changed a lot. Price competition may not have spread, but the competition is focused on artistic value, and the degree of box office success is most important. The artistic value is determined in the course of the production process. However, the degree of box office success is dependent upon the marketing manager. The marketing strategy represents the difference in the standard or quality of the movie. Inherently, the marketing manager adopts the entertainment strategy based on the quality of the foundation of the completed movie. At this time, the marketing manager knows the pertinent information (high quality/low quality) regarding the movie. This research study tries to reveal what should be the reasonable movie marketing expense, dependent on the quality of the movie. Research design, data, and methodology - Using a game scenario with different market players, the goal of the research analysis is to find out the following. First, the marketing expense is determined to maximize the profits after film production. Second, after the production costs are already committed, the manufacturer gets to choose the marketing level. At this time, there will be a profit maximization point, considering the competition. The premise of the research is as follows: if it is a good movie of quality, positive word of mouth increasing the audience continuously slows down the speed of the demand curve. If the movie quality is bad, the negative word of mouth decreasing the audience gradually hastens the speed of the demand curve. On the marketing side, when the manufacturer invests heavily in the marketing expense of the movie, consumer expectations increase to drive up the audience numbers. On the other hand, it is difficult to improve the profits excessively. When the manufacturer invests in marketing a little bit, the marketing expense is only relatively committed, therefore a lot of demand cannot be gained. Results - If a fixed market share is in a competitive situation, a low quality manufacturer expends relatively more marketing expense. If the situation assumes two manufacturers spend the same for the cost of production, the high quality manufacturer takes more profit. If the manufacturer expends less marketing budget to save costs, the optimum profit cannot be achieved since the other party (opponent) grabs the initial market share. Conclusions - In conclusion, investment is essential for market share to increase. We must refrain from a zero-sum game and have models where the game participants pursue the creative profits together. In the current film industry, there is the dominating logic of winner and loser but we have to create a film industry environment where the participants can be altogether satisfied and live together.

Rainfall Intensity Estimation Using Geostationary Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning: A Case Study in the Korean Peninsula in Summer (정지 궤도 기상 위성을 이용한 기계 학습 기반 강우 강도 추정: 한반도 여름철을 대상으로)

  • Shin, Yeji;Han, Daehyeon;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_3
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    • pp.1405-1423
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of the main factors that affect water and energy cycles, and its estimation plays a very important role in securing water resources and timely responding to water disasters. Satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has the advantage of covering large areas at high spatiotemporal resolution. In this study, machine learning-based rainfall intensity models were developed using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) water vapor channel (6.7 ㎛), infrared channel (10.8 ㎛), and weather radar Column Max (CMAX) composite data based on random forest (RF). The target variables were weather radar reflectivity (dBZ) and rainfall intensity (mm/hr) converted by the Z-R relationship. The results showed that the model which learned CMAX reflectivity produced the Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.34 and the Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE) of 4.82 mm/hr. When compared to the GeoKompsat-2 and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)-Cloud Classification System (CCS) rainfall intensity products, the accuracies improved by 21.73% and 10.81% for CSI, and 31.33% and 23.49% for MAE, respectively. The spatial distribution of the estimated rainfall intensity was much more similar to the radar data than the existing products.

Student-Centered Discrete Mathematics Class with Cyber Lab (학생중심의 대학 이산수학 강의 운영사례)

  • Lee, Sang-Gu;Lee, Jae Hwa
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2019
  • This study deals with the case of student-centered discrete mathematics class with cyber lab. First, we provided lecture notes and cyber labs we developed. In particular, discrete mathematics is a course that covers the principles of algorithms. The purpose of this study is to provide students with basic mathematics, aiming to actively participate in the learning process, to improve their abilities and to reach the ultimate goal of student success with confidence. Second, based on interactions, students were able to prepare for the lectures, review, question, answer, and discussion through an usual learning management system of the school. Third, all the students generated materials through one semester, which were reported, submitted, presented and evaluated. It was possible to improve the learning effectiveness through the discussions and implementation of using some easy open source programming language and codes. Our discrete math laboratory could be practiced without any special knowledge of coding. These lecture models allow students to develop critical thinking skills while describing and presenting their learning and problem-solving processes. We share our experience and our materials including lecture note and cyber lab as well as a possible model of student-centered mathematics class that does not give too much of work load for instructors. This study shares a model that demonstrates that any professor will be able to have an individualized, customized, and creative discrete education without spending much of extra time and assistant, unlike previous research.

A Study on the Learning Model Based on Digital Transformation (디지털 트랜스포메이션 기반 학습모델 연구)

  • Lee, Jin Gu;Lee, Jae Young;Jung, Il Chan;Kim, Mi Hwa
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.765-777
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present a digital transformation-based learning model that can be used in universities based on learning digital transformation in order f to be competitive in a rapidly changing environment. Literature review, case study, and focus group interview were conducted and the implications for the learning model from these are as follows. Universities that stand out in related fields are actively using learning analysis to implement dashboards, develop predictive models, and support adaptive learning based on big data, They also have actively introduced advanced edutech to classes. In addition, problems and difficulties faced by other universities and K University when implementing digital transformation were also confirmed. Based on these findings, a digital transformation-based learning model of K University was developed. This model consists of four dimensions: diagnosis, recommendation, learning, and success. It allows students to proceed with learning by diagnosing and recommending various learning processes necessary for individual success, and systematically managing learning outcomes. Finally, academic and practical implications about the research results were discussed.

Self-optimizing feature selection algorithm for enhancing campaign effectiveness (캠페인 효과 제고를 위한 자기 최적화 변수 선택 알고리즘)

  • Seo, Jeoung-soo;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.173-198
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    • 2020
  • For a long time, many studies have been conducted on predicting the success of campaigns for customers in academia, and prediction models applying various techniques are still being studied. Recently, as campaign channels have been expanded in various ways due to the rapid revitalization of online, various types of campaigns are being carried out by companies at a level that cannot be compared to the past. However, customers tend to perceive it as spam as the fatigue of campaigns due to duplicate exposure increases. Also, from a corporate standpoint, there is a problem that the effectiveness of the campaign itself is decreasing, such as increasing the cost of investing in the campaign, which leads to the low actual campaign success rate. Accordingly, various studies are ongoing to improve the effectiveness of the campaign in practice. This campaign system has the ultimate purpose to increase the success rate of various campaigns by collecting and analyzing various data related to customers and using them for campaigns. In particular, recent attempts to make various predictions related to the response of campaigns using machine learning have been made. It is very important to select appropriate features due to the various features of campaign data. If all of the input data are used in the process of classifying a large amount of data, it takes a lot of learning time as the classification class expands, so the minimum input data set must be extracted and used from the entire data. In addition, when a trained model is generated by using too many features, prediction accuracy may be degraded due to overfitting or correlation between features. Therefore, in order to improve accuracy, a feature selection technique that removes features close to noise should be applied, and feature selection is a necessary process in order to analyze a high-dimensional data set. Among the greedy algorithms, SFS (Sequential Forward Selection), SBS (Sequential Backward Selection), SFFS (Sequential Floating Forward Selection), etc. are widely used as traditional feature selection techniques. It is also true that if there are many risks and many features, there is a limitation in that the performance for classification prediction is poor and it takes a lot of learning time. Therefore, in this study, we propose an improved feature selection algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of the existing campaign. The purpose of this study is to improve the existing SFFS sequential method in the process of searching for feature subsets that are the basis for improving machine learning model performance using statistical characteristics of the data to be processed in the campaign system. Through this, features that have a lot of influence on performance are first derived, features that have a negative effect are removed, and then the sequential method is applied to increase the efficiency for search performance and to apply an improved algorithm to enable generalized prediction. Through this, it was confirmed that the proposed model showed better search and prediction performance than the traditional greed algorithm. Compared with the original data set, greed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), and recursive feature elimination (RFE), the campaign success prediction was higher. In addition, when performing campaign success prediction, the improved feature selection algorithm was found to be helpful in analyzing and interpreting the prediction results by providing the importance of the derived features. This is important features such as age, customer rating, and sales, which were previously known statistically. Unlike the previous campaign planners, features such as the combined product name, average 3-month data consumption rate, and the last 3-month wireless data usage were unexpectedly selected as important features for the campaign response, which they rarely used to select campaign targets. It was confirmed that base attributes can also be very important features depending on the type of campaign. Through this, it is possible to analyze and understand the important characteristics of each campaign type.

A Study on the Intelligent Quick Response System for Fast Fashion(IQRS-FF) (패스트 패션을 위한 지능형 신속대응시스템(IQRS-FF)에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyun-Sung;Park, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2010
  • Recentlythe concept of fast fashion is drawing attention as customer needs are diversified and supply lead time is getting shorter in fashion industry. It is emphasized as one of the critical success factors in the fashion industry how quickly and efficiently to satisfy the customer needs as the competition has intensified. Because the fast fashion is inherently susceptible to trend, it is very important for fashion retailers to make quick decisions regarding items to launch, quantity based on demand prediction, and the time to respond. Also the planning decisions must be executed through the business processes of procurement, production, and logistics in real time. In order to adapt to this trend, the fashion industry urgently needs supports from intelligent quick response(QR) system. However, the traditional functions of QR systems have not been able to completely satisfy such demands of the fast fashion industry. This paper proposes an intelligent quick response system for the fast fashion(IQRS-FF). Presented are models for QR process, QR principles and execution, and QR quantity and timing computation. IQRS-FF models support the decision makers by providing useful information with automated and rule-based algorithms. If the predefined conditions of a rule are satisfied, the actions defined in the rule are automatically taken or informed to the decision makers. In IQRS-FF, QRdecisions are made in two stages: pre-season and in-season. In pre-season, firstly master demand prediction is performed based on the macro level analysis such as local and global economy, fashion trends and competitors. The prediction proceeds to the master production and procurement planning. Checking availability and delivery of materials for production, decision makers must make reservations or request procurements. For the outsourcing materials, they must check the availability and capacity of partners. By the master plans, the performance of the QR during the in-season is greatly enhanced and the decision to select the QR items is made fully considering the availability of materials in warehouse as well as partners' capacity. During in-season, the decision makers must find the right time to QR as the actual sales occur in stores. Then they are to decide items to QRbased not only on the qualitative criteria such as opinions from sales persons but also on the quantitative criteria such as sales volume, the recent sales trend, inventory level, the remaining period, the forecast for the remaining period, and competitors' performance. To calculate QR quantity in IQRS-FF, two calculation methods are designed: QR Index based calculation and attribute similarity based calculation using demographic cluster. In the early period of a new season, the attribute similarity based QR amount calculation is better used because there are not enough historical sales data. By analyzing sales trends of the categories or items that have similar attributes, QR quantity can be computed. On the other hand, in case of having enough information to analyze the sales trends or forecasting, the QR Index based calculation method can be used. Having defined the models for decision making for QR, we design KPIs(Key Performance Indicators) to test the reliability of the models in critical decision makings: the difference of sales volumebetween QR items and non-QR items; the accuracy rate of QR the lead-time spent on QR decision-making. To verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed models, a case study has been performed for a representative fashion company which recently developed and launched the IQRS-FF. The case study shows that the average sales rateof QR items increased by 15%, the differences in sales rate between QR items and non-QR items increased by 10%, the QR accuracy was 70%, the lead time for QR dramatically decreased from 120 hours to 8 hours.

The Role of PK/PD Modeling and Simulation in Model-based New Drug Development (모델 기반학적 신약개발에서 약동/약력학 모델링 및 시뮬레이션의 역할)

  • Yun, Hwi-Yeol;Baek, In-Hwan;Seo, Jeong-Won;Bae, Kyung-Jin;Lee, Mann-Hyung;Kang, Won-Ku;Kwon, Kwang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.84-96
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    • 2008
  • In the recent, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling has appeared as a critical path tools in new drug development to optimize drug efficacy and safety. PK/PD modeling is the mathematical approaches of the relationships between PK and PD. This approach in new drug development can be estimated inaccessible PK and PD parameters, evaluated competing hypothesis, and predicted the response under new conditions. Additionally, PK/PD modeling provides the information about systemic conditions for understanding the pharmacology and biology. These advantages of PK/PD model development are to provide the early decision-making information in new drug development process, and to improve the prediction power for the success of clinical trials. The purpose of this review article is to summarize the PK/PD modeling process, and to provide the theoretical and practical information about widely used PK/PD models. This review also provides model schemes and the differential equations for the development of PK/PD model.

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Comparative Analysis between Zirconia Implant and Titanium Implant

  • Hwang, Ho-Jeong;Kim, Seong-Kyun;Lee, Joo-Hee;Heo, Seong-Joo;Koak, Jai-Young;Yoo, Soo-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Dental Science
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 2012
  • Various ceramic implant systems made of yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycystal (Y-TZP) have become commercially available in recent years. A search of the literature was performed to assess the clinical success of dental Y-TZP implants and whether the osseointegration of Y-TZP is comparable to that of titanium, the standard implant material. No controlled clinical studies in humans regarding clinical outcomes or osseointegration could be identified. Clinical data were restricted to case studies and case series. Only 7 animal studies were found. Osseointegration was evaluated at 4 weeks to 24 months after placement in different animal models, sites and under different loading conditions. The mean bone-implant contact percentage was above 60% in almost all experimental groups. In studies that used titanium implants as a control, Y-TZP implants were comparable to or even better than titanium implants. Surface modifications may further improve initial bone healing and resistance to removal torque. Y-TZP implants may have the potential to become an alternative to titanium implants but cannot currently be recommended for routine clinical use, as no long-term clinical data are available.

Collective Forest Management System in Japan: a Case Study in Osawa Property Ward Forest

  • De Zoysa, Mangala Premakumara;Inoue, Makoto;Yamashita, Utako;Hironori, Okuda
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.58-70
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    • 2013
  • Iriai an Indigenous forest management system in Japan from the viewpoint of "common pool resources" was a success resilient institution and resulted with sustainable production system and environmental conservation. This study was conducted in Osawa of the Nagano prefecture through group discussions, field observations and an in-depth field survey. Osawa Property Ward Forest is managed under the concept very much similarly to traditional "Iriai". This study firstly examined the changes of collective forest management system in terms of awareness and interest in forest management; forest management activities; role of forest; and collection of forest products. Then it analyzed the current threats for collective forest management have been identified as: land abandonment due to loss of benefits and lack of active community participation; deterioration of forest environment particularly the micro-climate and aesthetic values; conflict with local government authorities restraining the use of money in property ward forest and conflict with outsiders on damping of the garbage. Community cantered forestry management rules; livelihood contribution; protection of environment; local initiatives for protection and economic activities are the prevailing opportunities for collective forest management. The main requirements for revitalization of collective forest management are explained as local reciprocity; imposition of community based forest rules; encouraging local innovations; and building partnerships with stakeholders. Collective forest management system addresses the limitations of conventional forestry models, which had invalidated traditional 'iriai' institutions, and key to restoring sustainable use of forest and environmental resources. Cross-institutional collaborations together with responsibilities of local communities would ensure the revitalization of forest resources.