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Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

Policy Change and Innovation of Textile Industry in Daegu·Kyungbuk Region (대구·경북지역 섬유산업의 정책변화와 혁신과제)

  • Shin, Jin-Kyo;Kim, Yo-Han
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.223-248
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    • 2012
  • This study analyses support policy and structural change of textile industry in Daegu Kyungbuk region, and suggests major issues for textile industry's innovation. In Daegu Kyungbuk, it was 1999 that a policy, so called Milano Project, in order to promote a textile industry was devised. In 2004, the Regional Industrial Promotion Plan was devised. The plan was born from a view point of establishing a regional innovation system and of promoting the innovative clusters under a knowledge based economy. After then, the Regional Industry Promotion Project or Regional Strategic Industry Promotion Project became a core of regional textile industrial policy. Research results indicated that the first stage Milano project (1999-2003) showed both positive and negative effects. There were no long-term development plan, clear vision and strategy. But, core industrial infrastructure for differentiated product development, such as New product Development Support Center and Dyeing Design Practical Application Center, was constructed. The second stage Daegu Textile Industry Promotion Plan (2004-2008) displayed a significant technological performance and new product sales with the assistance of Kyungbuk province. Also, textile industry revealed positive fruits such as financial structure, productivity, and profitability as a result of strong restructuring. In industrial structure, there was a important change from clothe textile material to industry textile material. Most of textile companies did not showed high capability in CEO's technology innovation intention, entrepreneurship, R&D and human resource competency in compare with other industry. We suggested that Daegu Kyungbuk has to select and concentrate on the high-tech textile material and living textile for sustainable development and competitiveness. We also proposed a confidence and cooperation based innovation network and company oriented innovation cluster.

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A Case Study on the Risk Sharing Structure of Service Contracts in Global Logistics Outsourcing: Comparison of Korea with Foreign Companies (국제물류 계약에서 리스크 공유에 대한 계약서 조항 사례연구 : 국내와 해외 기업 간 비교를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Song, Sang-Hwa
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.35-65
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    • 2013
  • In December 2012, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and Ministry of Knowledge Economy held a commission and distributed a standardized logistics contract between the shipper and the logistics companies in order to spread and to promote contract standardization. With such background in place, this study examines the leading research on different types and attributions in present logistics contracts in order to propose guidelines for creating contract clauses that would lead to a win-win relationship among the parties involved in the logistics outsourcing relationships. This study further compares and contrasts the concreteness of local and international logistics contracts through case studies, and provides practical thought-provoking points on concretization of clauses on potential risks and additional expenses for local logistics companies when signing logistics contracts. Firstly, the composition and contents of both local and international logistics contracts are similar in the way that both deal with the basic principles between the concerned parties such as the following: contract terms, validity, scope of work, operational procedures, payment terms, and dispute resolutions. Secondly, for flexibility of potential dispute resolution, both logistics contracts define the definition of dispute and follow the classical contractual approach of dispute resolution through third-party arbitration. Thirdly, compared to local contracts, international logistics contracts provide more concretized and specific clauses on the occurrence of potential risks and hazards; on the other hand, compared to international logistics contracts, it seemed that local contracts contained more clauses in favor of the shipper. This research then suggests ideas to eliminate the classic tradition - logistics companies enduring the damages that occur as a result of the structural differences between the shipper and the logistics companies - through efforts to actively negotiate in advance the predictable problems and risks and by reflecting the mutually agreed points in the contract, and further offers guidelines on contract concretization for distribution of standardized logistics contracts in the future.

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A Study on the Acceptance Factors of the Capital Market Sentiment Index (자본시장 심리지수의 수용요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Suk-Hwan;Kang, Hyoung-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.1-36
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    • 2020
  • This study is to reveal the acceptance factors of the Market Sentiment Index (MSI) created by reflecting the investor sentiment extracted by processing unstructured big data. The research model was established by exploring exogenous variables based on the rational behavior theory and applying the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The acceptance of MSI provided to investors in the stock market was found to be influenced by the exogenous variables presented in this study. The results of causal analysis are as follows. First, self-efficacy, investment opportunities, Innovativeness, and perceived cost significantly affect perceived ease of use. Second, Diversity of services and perceived benefits have a statistically significant impact on perceived usefulness. Third, Perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness have a statistically significant effect on attitude to use. Fourth, Attitude to use statistically significantly influences the intention to use, and the investment opportunities as an independent variable affects the intention to use. Fifth, the intention to use statistically significantly affects the final dependent variable, the intention to use continuously. The mediating effect between the independent and dependent variables of the research model is as follows. First, The indirect effect on the causal route from diversity of services to continuous use intention was 0.1491, which was statistically significant at the significance level of 1%. Second, The indirect effect on the causal route from perceived benefit to continuous use intention was 0.1281, which was statistically significant at the significance level of 1%. The results of the multi-group analysis are as follows. First, for groups with and without stock investment experience, multi-group analysis was not possible because the measurement uniformity between the two groups was not secured. Second, the analysis result of the difference in the effect of independent variables of male and female groups on the intention to use continuously, where measurement uniformity was secured between the two groups, In the causal route from usage attitude to usage intention, women are higher than men. And in the causal route from use intention to continuous use intention, males were very high and showed statistically significant difference at significance level 5%.

Hightechnology industrial development and formation of new industrial district : Theory and empirical cases (첨단산업발전과 신산업지구 형성 : 이론과 사례)

  • ;Park, Sam Ock
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.117-136
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    • 1994
  • Contemporary global space economy is so dynamic that any one specific structural force can not explain the whole dynamic processes or trajectories of spatial industrial development. The major purpose of this paper is extending the traditional notion of industrial districts to functioning and development of new industrial districts with relation to the development of high technology industries. Several dynamic forces, which are dominated in new industrial districts in the modern space economy, are incorporated in the formation and dynamic aspects of new industrial districts. Even though key forces governing Marshallian industrial district are localization of small firms, division of labor between firms, constructive cooperation, and industrial atmosphere, Marshall points out a possibility of growing importance of large firms and non-local networks in the districts with changes of external environments. Some of Italian industrial districts can be regarded as Marshallian industrial districts in broader context, but the role of local authorities or institutions and local embeddedness seem to be more important in the Italian industrial districts. More critical implication form the review of Marshallian industrial districts and Italian industrial districts is that the industrial districts are not a static concept but a dynamic one: small firm based industrial districts can be regarded as only a specific feature evolved over time. Dynamic aspects of new industrial districts are resulting from coexistence of contrasting forces governing the functioning and formation of the districts in contemporary global space economy. The contrasting forces governing new industrial districts are coexistence of flexible and mass production systems, local and global networks, local and non-local embeddedness, and small and large firms. Because of these coexistence of contrasting forces, there are various types of new industrial districts. Nine types of industrial districts are identified based on local/non-local networks and intensity of networks in both suppliers and customers linkages. The different types of new industrial districts are described by differences in production systems, embeddedness, governance, cooperation and competition, and institutional factors. Out of nine types of industrial districts, four types - Marshallian; suppliers hub and spoke; customers hub and spoke; and satellite - are regarded as distinctive new industrial districts and four additional types - advanced hub and spoke types (suppliers and customers) and mature satellites (suppliers and customers) - can be evolved from the distinctive types and may be regarded as hybrid types. The last one - pioneering high technology industrial district - can be developed from the advanced hub and spoke types and this type is a most advanced modern industrial district in the era of globalization and high technology. The dynamic aspects of the districts are related with the coexistence of the contrasting forces in the contemporary global space economy. However, the development trajectory is not a natural one and not all the industrial districts can develop to the other hybrid types. Traditionally, localization of industries was developed by historical chances. In the process of high technology industrial development in contemporary global space economy, however, policy and strategies are critical for the formation and evolution of new industrial districts. It needs formation of supportive tissues of institutions for evolution of dyamic pattern of high technology related new industrial districts. Some of the original distinctive types of new industrial districts can not follow the path or trajectory suggested in this paper and may be declined without advancing, if there is no formation of supportive social structure or policy. Provision of information infrastructure and diffusion of an entrepreneurship through the positive supports of local government, public institutions, universities, trade associations and industry associations are important for the evolution of the dynamic new industrial districts. Reduction of sunk costs through the supports for training and retraining of skilled labor, the formation of flexible labor markets, and the establishment of cheap and available telecommunication networks is also regarded as a significant strategies for dynamic progress of new industrial districts in the era of high technology industrial development. In addition, development of intensive international networks in production, technology and information is important policy issue for formation and evolution of the new industrial districts which are related with high technology industrial development.

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The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk in the Relationships Between Enduring Product Involvement and Trust Expectation (지속적 제품관여도와 소비자 요구신뢰수준 간의 영향관계: 인지된 위험의 매개 역할에 대한 실증분석을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Ilyoo B.;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2013
  • When a consumer needs a product or service and multiple sellers are available online, the process of selecting a seller to buy online from is complex since the process involves many behavioral dimensions that have to be taken into account. As a part of this selection process, consumers may set minimum trust expectation that can be used to screen out less trustworthy sellers. In the previous research, the level of consumers' trust expectation has been anchored on two important factors: product involvement and perceived risk. Product involvement refers to the extent to which a consumer perceives a specific product important. Thus, the higher product involvement may result in the higher trust expectation in sellers. On the other hand, other related studies found that when consumers perceived a higher level of risk (e.g., credit card fraud risk), they set higher trust expectation as well. While abundant research exists addressing the relationship between product involvement and perceived risk, little attention has been paid to the integrative view of the link between the two constructs and their impacts on the trust expectation. The present paper is a step toward filling this research gap. The purpose of this paper is to understand the process by which a consumer chooses an online merchant by examining the relationships among product involvement, perceived risk, trust expectation, and intention to buy from an e-tailer. We specifically focus on the mediating role of perceived risk in the relationships between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. That is, we question whether product involvement affects the trust expectation directly without mediation or indirectly mediated by perceived risk. The research model with four hypotheses was initially tested using data gathered from 635 respondents through an online survey method. The structural equation modeling technique with partial least square was used to validate the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that three out of the four hypotheses formulated were supported. First, we found that the intention to buy from a digital storefront is positively and significantly influenced by the trust expectation, providing support for H4 (trust expectation ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intention). Second, perceived risk was found to be a strong predictor of trust expectation, supporting H2 as well (perceived risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Third, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of product involvement, which caused H3 to be rejected (product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Finally, we found significant positive relationship between product involvement and perceived risk (H1: product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ perceived risk), which suggests that the possibility of complete mediation of perceived risk in the relationship between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. As a result, we conducted an additional test for the mediation effect by comparing the original model with the revised model without the mediator variable of perceived risk. Indeed, we found that there exists a strong influence of product involvement on the trust expectation (by intentionally eliminating the variable of perceived risk) that was suppressed (i.e., mediated) by the perceived risk in the original model. The Sobel test statistically confirmed the complete mediation effect. Results of this study offer the following key findings. First, enduring product involvement is positively related to perceived risk, implying that the higher a consumer is enduringly involved with a given product, the greater risk he or she is likely to perceive with regards to the online purchase of the product. Second, perceived risk is positively related to trust expectation. A consumer with great risk perceptions concerning the online purchase is likely to buy from a highly trustworthy online merchant, thereby mitigating potential risks. Finally, product involvement was found to have no direct influence on trust expectation, but the relationship between the two constructs was indirect and mediated by the perceived risk. This is perhaps an important theoretical integration of two separate streams of literature on product involvement and perceived risk. The present research also provides useful implications for practitioners as well as academicians. First, one implication for practicing managers in online retail stores is that they should invest in reducing the perceived risk of consumers in order to lower down the trust expectation and thus increasing the consumer's intention to purchase products or services. Second, an academic implication is that perceived risk mediates the relationship between enduring product involvement and trust expectation. Further research is needed to elaborate the theoretical relationships among the constructs under consideration.

Optimization of DME Reforming using Steam Plasma (수증기 플라즈마를 이용한 DME 개질의 최적화 방안 연구)

  • Jung, Kyeongsoo;Chae, U-Ri;Chae, Ho Keun;Chung, Myeong-Sug;Lee, Joo-Yeoun
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2019
  • In today's global energy market, the importance of green energy is emerging. Hydrogen energy is the future clean energy source and one of the pollution-free energy sources. In particular, the fuel cell method using hydrogen enhances the flexibility of renewable energy and enables energy storage and conversion for a long time. Therefore, it is considered to be a solution that can solve environmental problems caused by the use of fossil resources and energy problems caused by exhaustion of resources simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to efficiently produce hydrogen using plasma, and to study the optimization of DME reforming by checking the reforming reaction and yield according to temperature. The research method uses a 2.45 GHz electromagnetic plasma torch to produce hydrogen by reforming DME(Di Methyl Ether), a clean fuel. Gasification analysis was performed under low temperature conditions ($T3=1100^{\circ}C$), low temperature peroxygen conditions ($T3=1100^{\circ}C$), and high temperature conditions ($T3=1376^{\circ}C$). The low temperature gasification analysis showed that methane is generated due to unstable reforming reaction near $1100^{\circ}C$. The low temperature peroxygen gasification analysis showed less hydrogen but more carbon dioxide than the low temperature gasification analysis. Gasification analysis at high temperature indicated that methane was generated from about $1150^{\circ}C$, but it was not generated above $1200^{\circ}C$. In conclusion, the higher the temperature during the reforming reaction, the higher the proportion of hydrogen, but the higher the proportion of CO. However, it was confirmed that the problem of heat loss and reforming occurred due to the structural problem of the gasifier. In future developments, there is a need to reduce incomplete combustion by improving gasifiers to obtain high yields of hydrogen and to reduce the generation of gases such as carbon monoxide and methane. The optimization plan to produce hydrogen by steam plasma reforming of DME proposed in this study is expected to make a meaningful contribution to producing eco-friendly and renewable energy in the future.

Differences in Grip Strength by Living Conditions and Living Area among Men and Women in Middle and Later Life (독거여부와 거주지역에 따른 중년기와 노년기 남성과 여성의 악력 차이)

  • Joo, Susanna;Jun, Hey Jung;Park, Hayoung
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.551-567
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    • 2018
  • Demographic and socio-structural information is useful to identify potential welfare recipients who are in need of disease-prevention and intervention services. Thus, the present study aims to explore the differences in grip strength among middle and old-aged adults by living conditions and by living area. The 5th wave data of Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging was utilized. The dependent variable was grip strength, and the independent variables were living alone (living alone or not) and living area (city or non-city). Covariates were age, education, log-transformed household income, spouse existence, body mass index, self-rated health conditions, depressive symptoms, cognitive function, smoking, regular exercise, frequency of meeting with friends, and the number of social participation. Regression analysis was performed for middle-aged men, middle-aged women, old-aged men, and old-aged women, respectively. ANOVA and Chi-test were additionally used to specifically discuss significant results. Cross-sectional weight was applied to all analyses. According to the results, living alone and living area did not have significant effects on grip strength among middle-aged men, old-aged men, and old-aged women. In middle-aged women, however, living alone and living area were significantly associated with grip strength. To be specific, middle-aged women who lived alone in rural areas had the lowest grip strength compared to other middle-aged women. Additional analysis showed that middle-aged women who lived alone in rural areas had risk factors, such as low education level, low income, or high depressive symptoms. It implies that middle-aged women living alone in rural areas may have physical health risks, so they might be in need of disease prevention. This study is meaningful in that it can provide reliable information on the latent welfare recipients by using representative panel data and applying weight values.

Mediating Effect of Ease of Use and Customer Satisfaction in the Relationship between Mobile Shopping Mall of Service Quality and Repurchase Intention of University Student consumer (모바일쇼핑몰 서비스품질과 대학생 고객의 재구매의도 관계에서 사용용이성과 고객만족도의 매개효과)

  • Kim, Sun-A;Park, Ji-Eun;Park, Song-Choon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.201-223
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to verify empirically the causal relationship between service quality, ease of use, customer satisfaction, and repurchase intention of mobile shopping mall. And this study is to investigate the ease of use and customer satisfaction mediating effect of between service quality and repurchase intention. Therefore, 323 university students in Jeonnam area were surveyed and the structural equation model was derived based on previous research. Service quality of mobile shopping mall make a significant effect on using easiness, purchasing satisfaction and repurchase intention. However, among service quality of mobile shopping mall, service scape like mobile interface and site design made a positive effect on purchasing satisfaction, but did not any effect on repurchase intention. In other words, service quality factors that make positive effects on customer's pleasant using and repurchase intention make a positive effect on repurchase intention when providing and using the service customer wants faithfully rather than external part of the site and mutually influencing attitude or behavior well. The implications suggested by this study are as follows. First, service quality of mobile shopping mall makes a significant effect on repurchase intention, so it's necessary to improve CS service system so as to treat customers' inquiries or inconveniences actively during mobile shopping and return and refund of defective products quickly and conveniently. And, in addition to the finally used factors in analysis process, benefits using customers' grade by number of purchases, such as various events, coupons, reserve, etc. and active contents marketing strategies providing more various pleasures and values of shopping are necessary. Second, satisfaction of mobile shopping mall makes a positive effect on repurchase intention, so visiting of site and repurchasing of product are continuously done as customers' satisfaction on shopping mall is increasing. Therefore, shopping mall site requires differentiation of contents, exact plan and practice of service, marketing, etc. so that customers can feel more satisfaction. This study is significant as it systematically analyzed concepts of components that service quality of mobile shopping mall makes an effect on using easiness, purchasing satisfaction, and repurchase intention, verified the relations, systematized it by theoretical structure, and widened the understanding of effects making an effect on repurchase intention.

International and domestic research trends in longitudinal connectivity evaluations of aquatic ecosystems, and the applicability analysis of fish-based models (수생태계 종적 연결성 평가를 위한 국내외 연구 현황 및 어류기반 종적 연속성 평가모델 적용성 분석)

  • Kim, Ji Yoon;Kim, Jai-Gu;Bae, Dae-Yeul;Kim, Hye-Jin;Kim, Jeong-Eun;Lee, Ho-Seong;Lim, Jun-Young;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.634-649
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    • 2020
  • Recently, stream longitudinal connectivity has been a topic of investigation due to the frequent disconnections and the impact of aquatic ecosystems caused by the construction of small and medium-sized weirs and various artificial structures (fishways) directly influencing the stream ecosystem health. In this study, the international and domestic research trends of the longitudinal connectivity in aquatic ecosystems were evaluated and the applicability of fish-based longitudinal connectivity models used in developed countries was analyzed. For these purposes, we analyzed the current status of research on longitudinal connectivity and structural problems, fish monitoring methodology, monitoring approaches, longitudinal disconnectivity of fish movement, and biodiversity. In addition, we analyzed the current status and some technical limitations of physical habitat suitability evaluation, ecology-based water flow, eco-hydrological modeling for fish habitat connectivity, and the s/w program development for agent-based model. Numerous references, data, and various reports were examined to identify worldwide longitudinal stream connectivity evaluation models in European and non-European countries. The international approaches to longitudinal connectivity evaluations were categorized into five phases including 1) an approach integrating fish community and artificial structure surveys (two types input variables), 2) field monitoring approaches, 3) a stream geomorphological approach, 4) an artificial structure-based DB analytical approach, and 5) other approaches. the overall evaluation of survey methodologies and applicability for longitudinal stream connectivity suggested that the ICE model (Information sur la Continuite Ecologique) and the ICF model (Index de Connectivitat Fluvial), widely used in European countries, were appropriate for the application of longitudinal connectivity evaluations in Korean streams.