• Title/Summary/Keyword: Strategy model

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Prediction Model with a Logistic Regression of Sequencing Two Arrival Flows (합류하는 두 항공기간 도착순서 결정에 대한 로지스틱회귀 예측 모형)

  • Jung, Soyeon;Lee, Keumjin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-48
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    • 2015
  • This paper has its purpose on constructing a prediction model of the arrival sequencing strategy which reflects the actual sequencing patterns of air traffic controllers. As the first step, we analyzed a pair-wise sequencing of two aircraft entering TMA from different entering points. Based on the historical trajectory data, several traffic factors such as time, speed and traffic density were examined for the model. With statistically significant factors, we constructed a prediction model of arrival sequencing through a binary logistic regression analysis. With the estimated coefficients, the performance of the model was conducted through a cross validation.

An Idea, Strategy of Congestion Pricing for Differentiated Services and Forecasting Probability of Access using Logistic Regression Model (차등서비스를 위한 혼잡요금부과의 타당성 검토와 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 인터넷 접속 확률 예측)

  • Ji Seonsu
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2005
  • Congestion control is an important research area in computer network. In this paper, I provided strategy of congestion pricing with differentiated services. And, suggested forecasting model of access that considered differentiated pricing, delay time, satisfaction using logistic regression. In a forecasting model of access with logistic regression technique, it is shown that coefficient of determination using suggested model is $70.7\%$.

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A robust nonlinear mathematical programming model for design of laterally loaded orthotropic steel plates

  • Maaly, H.;Mahmoud, F.F.;Ishac, I.I.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.223-236
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    • 2002
  • The main objective of the present paper is to address a formal procedure for orthotropic steel plates design. The theme of the proposed approach is to recast the design procedure into a mathematical programming model. The objective function to be optimized is the total weight of the structure. The total weight is function of its layout parameters and structural element design variables. Mean while the proposed approach takes into consideration the strength and rigidity criteria in addition to other dimensional constraints. A nonlinear programming model is developed which consists of a nonlinear objective function and a set of implicit/explicit nonlinear constraints. A transformation method is adopted for minimization strategy, where the primal model constrained problem is transformed into a sequence of unconstrained minimization models. The search strategy is based on the well-known Fletcher/Powell algorithm. The finite element technique is adopted for discretization and analysis strategies. Mindlin theory is selected to simulate the finite element model and a selective reduced integration scheme is exploited to avoid a shear lock problem.

An Adaptive Optimization Algorithm Based on Kriging Interpolation with Spherical Model and its Application to Optimal Design of Switched Reluctance Motor

  • Xia, Bin;Ren, Ziyan;Zhang, Yanli;Koh, Chang-Seop
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1544-1550
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, an adaptive optimization strategy utilizing Kriging model and genetic algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of electromagnetic devices. The ordinary Kriging assisted by the spherical covariance model is used to construct surrogate models. In order to improve the computational efficiency, the adaptive uniform sampling strategy is applied to generate sampling points in design space. Through several iterations and gradual refinement process, the global optimal point can be found by genetic algorithm. The proposed algorithm is validated by application to the optimal design of a switched reluctance motor, where the stator pole face and shape of pole shoe attached to the lateral face of the rotor pole are optimized to reduce the torque ripple.

Robust Predictive Speed Control for SPMSM Drives Based on Extended State Observers

  • Xu, Yanping;Hou, Yongle;Li, Zehui
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.497-508
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    • 2019
  • The predictive speed control (PSC) strategy can realize the simultaneous control of speed and current by using one cost function. As a model-based control method, the performance of the PSC is vulnerable to model mismatches such as load torque disturbances and parameter uncertainties. To solve this problem, this paper presents a robust predictive speed control (RPSC) strategy for surface-mounted permanent magnet synchronous motor (SPMSM) drives. The proposed RPSC uses extended state observers (ESOs) to estimate the lumped disturbances caused by load torque changes and parameter mismatches. The observer-based prediction model is then compensated by using the estimated disturbances. The introduction of ESOs can achieve robustness against predictive model uncertainties. In addition, a modified cost function is designed to further suppress load torque disturbances. The performance of the proposed RPSC scheme has been corroborated by experimental results under the condition of load torque changes and parameter mismatches.

PREDICTION OF FAULT TREND IN A LNG PLANT USING WAVELET TRANSFORM AND ARIMA MODEL

  • Yeonjong Ju;Changyoon Kim;Hyoungkwan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.388-392
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    • 2009
  • Operation of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants requires an effective maintenance strategy. To this end, the long-term and short-term trend of faults, such as mechanical and electrical troubles, should be identified so as to take proactive approach for ensuring the smooth and productive operation. However, it is not an easy task to predict the fault trend in LNG plants. Many variables and unexpected conditions make it quite difficult for the facility manager to be well prepared for future faulty conditions. This paper presents a model to predict the fault trend in a LNG plant. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is combined with Wavelet Transform to enhance the prediction capability of the proposed model. Test results show the potential of the proposed model for the preventive maintenance strategy.

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Optimal Bidding Strategy of Competitive Generators Under Price Based Pool (PBP(Price Based Pool) 발전경쟁시장에서의 최적입찰전략수립)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Hur, Jin;Moon, Young-Hwan;Chung, Koo-Hyung;Kim, Bal-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.597-602
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    • 2002
  • The restructuring of power industry is still going on all over the world for last several decades. Many kinds of restructuring model have been studied, proposed, and applied. Among those models, power pool is more popular than other. This paper assumes the power pool market structure having competitive generation sector, and a new method is presented to build a bidding strategy in that market. The utilities participating in the market have the perfect information of their cost and price functions, but they don't know which strategy to be chosen by others. To define one's strategy as a vector, we make utility's cost/price functions into discrete step functions. An utility knows only his own strategy, so he estimates the other's cost/price functions into discrete step functions. An utility knows only his own strategy, so he estimates the other's strategy using Nash equilibrium or stochastic methods. And he also has to forecast the system demand. According to this forecasting result, his payoffs can be changed. Considering these all conditions, we formulate a bidding game problem and apply noncooperative game theory to that problem for the optimal strategy or solution. Some restrictive assumption are added for simplification of solving process. A numerical example is given in Case Study to show essential features and concrete results of this approach.

Depth Scaling Strategy Using a Flexible Damping Factor forFrequency-Domain Elastic Full Waveform Inversion

  • Oh, Ju-Won;Kim, Shin-Woong;Min, Dong-Joo;Moon, Seok-Joon;Hwang, Jong-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.277-285
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    • 2016
  • We introduce a depth scaling strategy to improve the accuracy of frequency-domain elastic full waveform inversion (FWI) using the new pseudo-Hessian matrix for seismic data without low-frequency components. The depth scaling strategy is based on the fact that the damping factor in the Levenberg-Marquardt method controls the energy concentration in the gradient. In other words, a large damping factor makes the Levenberg-Marquardt method similar to the steepest-descent method, by which shallow structures are mainly recovered. With a small damping factor, the Levenberg-Marquardt method becomes similar to the Gauss-Newton methods by which we can resolve deep structures as well as shallow structures. In our depth scaling strategy, a large damping factor is used in the early stage and then decreases automatically with the trend of error as the iteration goes on. With the depth scaling strategy, we can gradually move the parameter-searching region from shallow to deep parts. This flexible damping factor plays a role in retarding the model parameter update for shallow parts and mainly inverting deeper parts in the later stage of inversion. By doing so, we can improve deep parts in inversion results. The depth scaling strategy is applied to synthetic data without lowfrequency components for a modified version of the SEG/EAGE overthrust model. Numerical examples show that the flexible damping factor yields better results than the constant damping factor when reliable low-frequency components are missing.

A Study on Providing Real-Time Route Guidance Information by Variable Massage Signs with Driver Behavior (운전자 행태를 고려한 VMS의 실시간 경로안내 정보제공에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-U;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.7 s.93
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2006
  • The ATIS(Advance Traveler Information System), as one part of ITS, is a system aiming to disperse traffic volume on transportation networks by providing traffic information to transportation users on pre-trip and en-route trips. One of tools in ATIS is usage of VMS(Variable Message Signs). It provides to the drivers with direct information about state of processing direction. which is considered as the most effective method in ATIS. The purposes of providing VMS information are classified two categories. One is to provide simple information to drivers for their convenience. The other is to manage traffic demand to improve transportation network performance. However, for more effective and reliable VMS information, several strategies should be taken into account. The main VMS management strategy is "Traffic Diversion Strategy for minimum delay" when traffic congestion or incident are occurred. For effective operation. firstly. reasonable diversion traffic volume is determined by network traffic condition Secondly, it is necessary to make providing information strategy which reflects driver response behavior for controling diversion traffic volume. This paper focuses on the providing real-time route guidance information by VMS when congestion is occurred by the incidents. This sturdy estimates time-dependent system optimal diversion rate that inflects travel time and queue lengths using traffic flow simulation model on base Cellular Automata. In addition, route choice behavior models are developed using binary logit model for traffic information variable by traffic system controller. Finally, this study provides time-dependent VMS massage contents and degree of providing information in order to optimize the traffic flow.

Development of Scaffolding Strategies Model by Information Search Process (ISP) (정보탐색과정(ISP)에 의한 스캐폴딩 전략 모형 개발)

  • Jeong-Hoon Lim
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.143-165
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to propose a scaffolding strategy that can be applied to the information search process by using Kuhlthau's ISP model, which presented a design and implementation strategy for the mediation role in the learning process. To this end, the relevant literature was reviewed to categorize scaffolding strategies, and impressions were collected from the students surveys after providing 150 middle school students in the Daejeon area with the project class to which the scaffolding strategy based on the ISP model was applied. The collected data were processed into a form suitable for analysis through data preprocessing for word frequencies to be extracted, and topic analysis was performed using STM (Structural Topic Modeling). First, after determining the optimal number of topics and extracting topics for each stage of the ISP model, the extracted topics were classified into three types: cognitive domain-macro perspective, cognitive domain-micro perspective, and emotional domain perspective. In this process, we focused on cognitive verbs and emotional verbs among words extracted through text mining, and presented a scaffolding strategy model related to each topic by reviewing representative document cases. Based on the results of this study, if an appropriate scaffolding strategy is provided at the ISP model stage, a positive effect on learners' self-directed task solving can be expected.