Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회지)

The Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Prediction Model with a Logistic Regression of Sequencing Two Arrival Flows

합류하는 두 항공기간 도착순서 결정에 대한 로지스틱회귀 예측 모형

  • 정소연 (한국항공대학교 대학원 항공교통물류학과) ;
  • 이금진 (한국항공대학교 항공교통물류학과)
  • Received : 2015.12.07
  • Accepted : 2015.12.20
  • Published : 2015.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper has its purpose on constructing a prediction model of the arrival sequencing strategy which reflects the actual sequencing patterns of air traffic controllers. As the first step, we analyzed a pair-wise sequencing of two aircraft entering TMA from different entering points. Based on the historical trajectory data, several traffic factors such as time, speed and traffic density were examined for the model. With statistically significant factors, we constructed a prediction model of arrival sequencing through a binary logistic regression analysis. With the estimated coefficients, the performance of the model was conducted through a cross validation.

Keywords

References

  1. Erzberger, H, and Nedell, W., "Design of Automated System for Management of Arrival Traffic," NASA TM-102201, 1989.
  2. Saraf, A. P., and Slater, G. L., "Optimal Dynamic Scheduling of Aircraft Arrivals at Congested Airport," Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics Vol. 31, No. 1, 2008, pp. 53-65. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.29464
  3. Hu, X. B., and Chen, W. H., "Receding Horizon Control for Aircraft Arrival Sequencing and Scheduling," IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2005, pp. 189-197. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2005.848365
  4. 김민지, 홍성권, 이금진, "항공교통관제사의 항공기 합류순서결정에 대한 확률적 예측모형 개발", 한국항공운항학회지 제22권 제3호 , 2014.
  5. 오은미, 김현경, 은연주, 전대근, "도착관리시스템 궤적 예측 모듈의 성능 개선을 위한 궤적 예측 정확도 분석 방법 연구", 한국항공운항학회지, 제23권 제3호, 2015.
  6. Eurocontrol, "AMAN Status Review 2010", 2010.
  7. 오은미, 은연주, 전대근, "BADA를 활용한 4-D경로 모델링법 개발", 한국항공운항학회지, 제20권 제2호, 2012.
  8. Eurocontrol, "User Manual For The Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) Revision 3.9", EEC Technical/Scientific Report No. 11/03/08-08, 2011.
  9. Soyeon Jung, and Keumjin Lee, "Analysis of Air Traffic Controller's Sequencing Strategy for Arrival Traffic Flow, AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference, submitted, Washington D.C., 2016.
  10. Train, K. E., Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2003.
  11. Hosmer, D. W. and Lemeshow, S., Applied Logistic Regression, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, 2000.