• 제목/요약/키워드: Strategic Scenarios

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Strategic analysis on sizing of flooding valve for successful accident management of small modular reactor

  • Hyo Jun An;Jae Hyung Park;Chang Hyun Song;Jeong Ik Lee;Yonghee Kim;Sung Joong Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제56권3호
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    • pp.949-958
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    • 2024
  • In contrast to all-time flooded small modular reactor (SMR) systems, an in-kind flooding safety system (FSS) has been proposed as a passive safety system applicable to small modular reactors (SMRs) that adopt a metal containment vessel (MCV). Under transient conditions, the FSS can provide emergency cooling to dry reactor cavities and sustain long-term coolability using re-acquired evaporated steam in the reactor building on demand. When designing an FSS, the effect of the flooding flow area is vital as it affects the overall accident sequence and safety. Therefore, in this study, a MELCOR model of a reference SMR is developed and numerical analysis is performed under postulated accident scenarios. Without flooding, the MCV pressure of the reactor module exceeds the design pressure before core damage. To prevent core damage, an emergency flooding strategy is devised using various flow path parameters and requirements to ensure an adequate emergency coolant supply before the core damage is investigated. The results indicate that a flow area exceeding 0.02 m2 is required in the FSS to prevent MCV overpressure and core damage. This study is the first to report a strategic analysis for appropriately sizing an FSS flooding valve applicable to innovative SMRs.

차세대 컨버전스서비스 핵심불확실성요인 도출에 관한 분석 (Deduction for Key Uncertainty Factors for the Next-generation Convergence Service)

  • 송영화;박선영;이중만
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.212-236
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 차세대 컨버전스서비스를 대상으로 고객, 기술, 사업자, 규제의 4대 이슈별로 환경 불확실성요인을 규명하고, 이들 환경 불확실성요인 중 특히 핵심이 되는 불확실성 요인을 도출하였다. 이어 도출된 핵심불확실성요인(KUF: Key Uncertainty Factor)을 중심으로 환경의 잔여불확실성 수준에 대한 평가를 시나리오 플래닝에 의해 실시하고, 이를 기반으로 차세대 컨버전스서비스의 진입전략 수립을 위한 방향을 제시하였다. 본 연구의 차세대 컨버전스서비스 사업의 불확실성 평가 및 진입 시나리오 구성에 대한 연구결과를 종합하면 다음과 같다. 2가지 잔여 불확실성 수준(선택 가능한 미래 수준, 예측 범위의 미래 수준)의 6개 시나리오를 대상으로 각각의 전략적 속성을 평가한 결과 시장 진입의 성공 요소로 2가지 핵심성공요인(KSF: Key Success Factor)을 도출하였다. 즉, 고객수요추세, 광고규제 완화를 핵심성공요인(KSF: Key Success Factor)으로 도출하였으며, 이를 토대로 4가지 전략적 시나리오 유형 및 각 시나리오 별 요구되는 사업자 대응역량에 대한 방향성을 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 컨버전스 시장의 활성화는 물론 관련 사업자의 자원의 효율적 배분, 진입형태, 진입 적정시기 등 진입전략 수립에 많은 시사점을 제공할 것이다.

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시스템 생태학적 접근법에 의한 가막만 패류생산의 지속성평가 2. 가막만 환경개선에 관한 환경회계 (Sustainability Evaluation for Shellfish Production in Gamak Bay Based on the Systems Ecology 2. Environmental Accounting for the Improvement of the Natural Environment Based on the Emergy Evaluation)

  • 오현택;이석모;이원찬;정래홍;홍석진;김남국
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제17권8호
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    • pp.857-869
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this research is to apply more scientific, quantitative methods and procedures of environmental investigation to the development of the natural environment and the improvement of the human environment during the establishment of a sewage treatment plant and special facilities using environmental accounting. This research was performed to develop a method of strategic environmental assessment on the operation of sewage treatment plant and reuse of shellfish seeding areas through the use of environmental accounting based on EMERGY evaluation. The result was applied to marine environment policy in order to evaluate the real wealth of the regional environment and economy for both the present phase and the proposed developed phase. Using results from the comparison of EMERGY indices between the present situation and future scenarios, cost benefit analysis was performed for three different scenarios: (I) construction of a new sewage treatment plant, (2) relocation and recovery of the shellfish seeding area, and (3) relocation and re-seeding of shellfish area and construction of a new sewage treatment plant. Cost-benefit ratios of the three scenarios are 1.88, 0.94, and 1.38, respectively.

전략환경영향평가 시 생태계서비스 평가 결과의 활용가능성에 관한 연구 (A Study of Useability of Ecosystem Service Assessment on Strategic Environmental Assessment)

  • 박윤선;김충기;이후승
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2021
  • Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) is a decision-making process taking into account the environmental impact, economic and social impact of policies, plans, and programs at the higher stage prior to the project plan for promoting sustainable development. In this study, we analyzed the process and criteria for selecting appropriate alternatives when establishing development plan in SEA. First, the criteria for estimating changes in ecosystem services following the implementation of development project of industrial complex were presented. Second, alternative evaluations were conducted through an analysis of ecosystem service scenarios to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong. As a result, the environmental quality of selected area as the existing project site deteriorated according to the implementation of the project, and the dimensional reduction technique confirmed that the change in ecosystem service factors in project area was the optimal location. In addition, the results of the scenario assessment to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong City showed that the existing site had large capacity in terms of water quality control services (scenario 1), scenario 2 in terms of preconditioning services, and scenario 3 in terms of water supply services. The guidance of Ecosystem service assessment is expected to be available in decision-making of large-scale strategies (e.g., SEA) and projects by presenting more quantitative criteria for determining the adequacy and location feasibility of development plans and policy plans. This is expected to require various support, including legislation and revision of related laws, believed to be supported by advanced research.

DEA를 이용한 공대 학과별 효율성 비교 연구 (Efficiency Comparison via DEA for Academic Departments in College of Engineering)

  • 최홍;손소영
    • 공학교육연구
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 1999
  • 본 연구의 주목적은 현재 연세대학교 공과대학 내에 속해 있는 14개 학과를 대상으로 DEA를 이용한 다양한 각도의 효율성 평가를 실시하여 각 학과들의 운영상의 상태와 문제점을 규명하고 이에 대한 개선책을 제시하는데 있다. 더 나아가 학부제라는 대학 내의 조직적인 변화에 대해 제도 도입의 효율성을 극대화시키기 위해서, 여러 가지 가상 시나리오에 따른 각 학부 및 학과의 효율성의 추이를 살펴보고 이를 통해 최적의 학부 형태를 선택하는데 필요한 초석을 다지고자 한다.

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Whither the TPP? Political Economy of Ratification and Effect on Trade Architecture in East Asia

  • Choi, Byung-il
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.311-338
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    • 2016
  • In the race for establishing trading architecture consistent with new landscape of the global economy, the US is ahead of the game by concluding the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement with 11 countries. To make it reality, the ratification is essential. In the battle for ratification in the US, declining globalism confronts rising protectionism. This paper models the ratification process as contest between globalism and protectionism, and analyzes the optimal timing for ratification. Based on this framework, various ratification scenarios are analyzed. The paper argues less likelihood for the lame-duck session passage and more likelihood for prolonged and protracted delay, due to changing political dynamics and declining intellectual support for globalism. Hence, the future of Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement may prove different, compared to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, both of which were renegotiated and ratified eventually. Then, the US would lose the first move advantage. The paper also discusses strategic implications of delayed ratification on the evolution of trading architecture in East Asia.

Strategic Identification of Unsafe Actions That Characterize Accidents on Ships

  • Rivai, Haryanti;Furusho, Masao
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.499-509
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    • 2013
  • Seafarers are one of the main engines driving economic growth in the maritime sector. The International Maritime (IMO) Organization estimated that there were approximately 1.5 million seafarers around the world engaged in international trade in 2012. Data have shown that human casualties in maritime accidents around Japan have shown an increasing trend over the last ten years. One cause is human error, which is inseparable from the human element that influences mariner's decisions and actions. The Personal Identification (PIN) Safe method is one way to systematically identify substandard and unsafe actions by considering the error taxonomies associated with various scenarios for a maritime system. The results are based on analysis of the role of the human element in commonly reported unsafe actions when interacting with equipment and other systems. Furthermore, patterns of influencing shaping factors were observed on the basis of data processing; the aim of this study was to promote safety culture and provide an opportunity to improve safety at sea.

주요국 식품안전 조직 및 주요정책 (Selected countries' food safety agencies and policies)

  • 이희정
    • 식품과학과 산업
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    • 제50권2호
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    • pp.98-109
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    • 2017
  • he safety and quality of the food supply are governed by a complex system and food safety management is one of the most important tasks of every government and government agency. Different types of policies have been developed and emplyed to address current and upcoming challegnes. In many counties including South Korea, much effort has been made to reform food safety system including organizational transformation and policy change. Food safety agencies including their history in four countries -U.S., England, Japan, and EU- are reviewd and major policies which have been recently employed by thses four contries are also examined. Additionally, the report of EU food safety and nutiriton in 2050 is introduced and scenarios of future change and policy responses in the report are exmained. Lastly, insight into this issue is given based on review of organizational transformation and major policies in four countries.

위키를 활용한 집단지성 기반의 시나리오 플래닝 (Scenario Planning based on Collective Intelligence Using Wiki)

  • 한종민;임현;이재신
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.29-48
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    • 2012
  • 사회 경제 체제의 복잡성 및 불확실성이 증가하면서, 환경변화에 능동적이고 효과적으로 대응할 수 있는 전략적 예측의 필요성이 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 전략적 예측을 수행하는 데는 목적과 상황에 따라 다양한 예측방법론이 사용될 수 있다. 최근의 상황을 보면, 추세외삽법 같은 단정적인 미래예측 방법론들의 활용성은 줄어들고 있다. 그러나 불확실성을 고려한 시나리오 플래닝은 전략적인 의사결정을 도와주는 도구로서 정부와 기업의 관심이 증대하고 있다. 일반적으로 시나리오 플래닝은 다양한 분야의 전문가들이 참여하여 의견을 개진하고 협의를 통해 결과를 도출하는 워크숍 방식으로 진행된다. 그러나 재원이 한정되고 수행기간이 짧은 예측의 경우에는 소수의 전문가들만이 참여하게 되는 단점이 존재한다. 또한 일반시민의 의견이 적극적으로 반영되기 어렵고, 중요한 요인과 현상이 고려되지 못하는 경우가 발생하기도 한다. 이에 더하여 시간적 공간적 제약으로 인해 창의적인 아이디어를 다양하게 제시하기 어려운 단점도 존재한다. 일반적인 워크숍에서는 10명 내외의 소수 전문가들이 참여하여 시나리오가 작성된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 기존의 워크숍 방식을 개선하기 위해 집단지성을 활용하는 새로운 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 즉 20명 이상 다수의 구성원들이 시나리오 작성에 참여하도록 하며 이들의 다양한 의견이 효과적으로 반영될 수 있도록 위키(Wiki)를 활용하는 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 또한 이러한 새로운 방식을 활용하여"미래 미디어에 관한 전략적 예측"을 수행한 실제 사례를 소개하고 수행 중 발견된 프로세스 개선 방안을 함께 제시하고자 한다.

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중국군의 해양작전능력과 한국군의 과제 (PRC Maritime Operational Capability and the Task for the ROK Military)

  • 김민석
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권33호
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    • pp.65-112
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    • 2014
  • Recent trends show that the PRC has stepped aside its "army-centered approach" and placed greater emphasis on its Navy and Air Force for a wider range of operations, thereby reducing its ground force and harnessing its economic power and military technology into naval development. A quantitative growth of the PLA Navy itself is no surprise as this is not a recent phenomenon. Now is the time to pay closer attention to the level of PRC naval force's performance and the extent of its warfighting capacity in the maritime domain. It is also worth asking what China can do with its widening naval power foundation. In short, it is time to delve into several possible scenarios I which the PRC poses a real threat. With this in mind, in Section Two the paper seeks to observe the construction progress of PRC's naval power and its future prospects up to the year 2020, and categorize time frame according to its major force improvement trends. By analyzing qualitative improvements made over time, such as the scale of investment and the number of ships compared to increase in displacement (tonnage), this paper attempts to identify salient features in the construction of naval power. Chapter Three sets out performance evaluation on each type of PRC naval ships as well as capabilities of the Navy, Air Force, the Second Artillery (i.e., strategic missile forces) and satellites that could support maritime warfare. Finall, the concluding chapter estimates the PRC's maritime warfighting capability as anticipated in respective conflict scenarios, and considers its impact on the Korean Peninsula and proposes the directions ROK should steer in response. First of all, since the 1980s the PRC navy has undergone transitions as the focus of its military strategic outlook shifted from ground warfare to maritime warfare, and within 30 years of its effort to construct naval power while greatly reducing the size of its ground forces, the PRC has succeeded in building its naval power next to the U.S.'s in the world in terms of number, with acquisition of an aircraft carrier, Chinese-version of the Aegis, submarines and so on. The PRC also enjoys great potentials to qualitatively develop its forces such as indigenous aircraft carriers, next-generation strategic submarines, next-generation destroyers and so forth, which is possible because the PRC has accumulated its independent production capabilities in the process of its 30-year-long efforts. Secondly, one could argue that ROK still has its chances of coping with the PRC in naval power since, despite its continuous efforts, many estimate that the PRC naval force is roughly ten or more years behind that of superpowers such as the U.S., on areas including radar detection capability, EW capability, C4I and data-link systems, doctrines on force employment as well as tactics, and such gap cannot be easily overcome. The most probable scenarios involving the PRC in sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula are: first, upon the outbreak of war in the peninsula, the PRC may pursue military intervention through sea, thereby undermining efforts of the ROK-U.S. combined operations; second, ROK-PRC or PRC-Japan conflicts over maritime jurisdiction or ownership over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands could inflict damage to ROK territorial sovereignty or economic gains. The PRC would likely attempt to resolve the conflict employing blitzkrieg tactics before U.S. forces arrive on the scene, while at the same time delaying and denying access of the incoming U.S. forces. If this proves unattainable, the PRC could take a course of action adopting "long-term attrition warfare," thus weakening its enemy's sustainability. All in all, thiss paper makes three proposals on how the ROK should respond. First, modern warfare as well as the emergent future warfare demonstrates that the center stage of battle is no longer the domestic territory, but rather further away into the sea and space. In this respect, the ROKN should take advantage of the distinct feature of battle space on the peninsula, which is surrounded by the seas, and obtain capabilities to intercept more than 50 percent of the enemy's ballistic missiles, including those of North Korea. In tandem with this capacity, employment of a large scale of UAV/F Carrier for Kill Chain operations should enhance effectiveness. This is because conditions are more favorable to defend from sea, on matters concerning accuracy rates against enemy targets, minimized threat of friendly damage, and cost effectiveness. Second, to maintain readiness for a North Korean crisis where timely deployment of US forces is not possible, the ROKN ought to obtain capabilities to hold the enemy attack at bay while deterring PRC naval intervention. It is also argued that ROKN should strengthen its power so as to protect national interests in the seas surrounding the peninsula without support from the USN, should ROK-PRC or ROK-Japan conflict arise concerning maritime jurisprudence. Third, the ROK should fortify infrastructures for independent construction of naval power and expand its R&D efforts, and for this purpose, the ROK should make the most of the advantages stemming from the ROK-U.S. alliance inducing active support from the United States. The rationale behind this argument is that while it is strategically effective to rely on alliance or jump on the bandwagon, the ultimate goal is always to acquire an independent response capability as much as possible.