• Title/Summary/Keyword: Strategic Scenarios

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Strategic analysis on sizing of flooding valve for successful accident management of small modular reactor

  • Hyo Jun An;Jae Hyung Park;Chang Hyun Song;Jeong Ik Lee;Yonghee Kim;Sung Joong Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.949-958
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    • 2024
  • In contrast to all-time flooded small modular reactor (SMR) systems, an in-kind flooding safety system (FSS) has been proposed as a passive safety system applicable to small modular reactors (SMRs) that adopt a metal containment vessel (MCV). Under transient conditions, the FSS can provide emergency cooling to dry reactor cavities and sustain long-term coolability using re-acquired evaporated steam in the reactor building on demand. When designing an FSS, the effect of the flooding flow area is vital as it affects the overall accident sequence and safety. Therefore, in this study, a MELCOR model of a reference SMR is developed and numerical analysis is performed under postulated accident scenarios. Without flooding, the MCV pressure of the reactor module exceeds the design pressure before core damage. To prevent core damage, an emergency flooding strategy is devised using various flow path parameters and requirements to ensure an adequate emergency coolant supply before the core damage is investigated. The results indicate that a flow area exceeding 0.02 m2 is required in the FSS to prevent MCV overpressure and core damage. This study is the first to report a strategic analysis for appropriately sizing an FSS flooding valve applicable to innovative SMRs.

Deduction for Key Uncertainty Factors for the Next-generation Convergence Service (차세대 컨버전스서비스 핵심불확실성요인 도출에 관한 분석)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Park, Sun-Young;Lee, Jung-Mann
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.212-236
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    • 2009
  • This study is an attempt to deduct environmental uncertainties facing next-generation convergence services, in four areas including customer, technology, service provider and regulation. We assess the level of residual uncertainty with regard to key environmental uncertainty factors, and conduct a scenario planning analysis. Based on the results of this analysis, we provide suggestions on market entry strategy for providers of this next-generation convergence service. The strategic assessment of six scenarios developed in this study, each with two levels of residual uncertainty (alternate futures and a range of futures) resulted in two key success factors (KSF), namely, customer demand trends and easing of advertising restrictions. Four types of strategic scenarios were then discerned, for each of which we present response capabilities that may be required of service providers, along with strategic suggestions. The results of this study are rich in implications for both policy-makers and regulators seeking ways to create and stimulate a convergence service market and prospective providers of next-generation convergence services, as they provide concrete tips related to market entry strategy, including efficient resource allocation, types of market entry and time-frames for entry.

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Sustainability Evaluation for Shellfish Production in Gamak Bay Based on the Systems Ecology 2. Environmental Accounting for the Improvement of the Natural Environment Based on the Emergy Evaluation (시스템 생태학적 접근법에 의한 가막만 패류생산의 지속성평가 2. 가막만 환경개선에 관한 환경회계)

  • Oh, Hyun-Taik;Lee, Suk-MO;Lee, Won-Chan;Jung, Rae-Hong;Hong, Suk-Jin;Kim, Nam-Kook;Tilburg, Charles
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.857-869
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this research is to apply more scientific, quantitative methods and procedures of environmental investigation to the development of the natural environment and the improvement of the human environment during the establishment of a sewage treatment plant and special facilities using environmental accounting. This research was performed to develop a method of strategic environmental assessment on the operation of sewage treatment plant and reuse of shellfish seeding areas through the use of environmental accounting based on EMERGY evaluation. The result was applied to marine environment policy in order to evaluate the real wealth of the regional environment and economy for both the present phase and the proposed developed phase. Using results from the comparison of EMERGY indices between the present situation and future scenarios, cost benefit analysis was performed for three different scenarios: (I) construction of a new sewage treatment plant, (2) relocation and recovery of the shellfish seeding area, and (3) relocation and re-seeding of shellfish area and construction of a new sewage treatment plant. Cost-benefit ratios of the three scenarios are 1.88, 0.94, and 1.38, respectively.

A Study of Useability of Ecosystem Service Assessment on Strategic Environmental Assessment (전략환경영향평가 시 생태계서비스 평가 결과의 활용가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Yoon-Sun;Kim, Choong-Ki;Lee, Who-Seung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2021
  • Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) is a decision-making process taking into account the environmental impact, economic and social impact of policies, plans, and programs at the higher stage prior to the project plan for promoting sustainable development. In this study, we analyzed the process and criteria for selecting appropriate alternatives when establishing development plan in SEA. First, the criteria for estimating changes in ecosystem services following the implementation of development project of industrial complex were presented. Second, alternative evaluations were conducted through an analysis of ecosystem service scenarios to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong. As a result, the environmental quality of selected area as the existing project site deteriorated according to the implementation of the project, and the dimensional reduction technique confirmed that the change in ecosystem service factors in project area was the optimal location. In addition, the results of the scenario assessment to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong City showed that the existing site had large capacity in terms of water quality control services (scenario 1), scenario 2 in terms of preconditioning services, and scenario 3 in terms of water supply services. The guidance of Ecosystem service assessment is expected to be available in decision-making of large-scale strategies (e.g., SEA) and projects by presenting more quantitative criteria for determining the adequacy and location feasibility of development plans and policy plans. This is expected to require various support, including legislation and revision of related laws, believed to be supported by advanced research.

Efficiency Comparison via DEA for Academic Departments in College of Engineering (DEA를 이용한 공대 학과별 효율성 비교 연구)

  • Choi Hong;Sohn So-Young
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 1999
  • DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) is applied to evaluate performance of 14 academic departments at the college of engineering in Yonsei University. Various input and output variables are used to identify operational inefficiency and to suggest some strategic improvement. Additionally, we analyze organizational changes of some existing departments to be merged under several scenarios. Our study results are expected to effectively provide constructive directions for reconfiguration of academic departments.

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Whither the TPP? Political Economy of Ratification and Effect on Trade Architecture in East Asia

  • Choi, Byung-il
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.311-338
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    • 2016
  • In the race for establishing trading architecture consistent with new landscape of the global economy, the US is ahead of the game by concluding the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement with 11 countries. To make it reality, the ratification is essential. In the battle for ratification in the US, declining globalism confronts rising protectionism. This paper models the ratification process as contest between globalism and protectionism, and analyzes the optimal timing for ratification. Based on this framework, various ratification scenarios are analyzed. The paper argues less likelihood for the lame-duck session passage and more likelihood for prolonged and protracted delay, due to changing political dynamics and declining intellectual support for globalism. Hence, the future of Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement may prove different, compared to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, both of which were renegotiated and ratified eventually. Then, the US would lose the first move advantage. The paper also discusses strategic implications of delayed ratification on the evolution of trading architecture in East Asia.

Strategic Identification of Unsafe Actions That Characterize Accidents on Ships

  • Rivai, Haryanti;Furusho, Masao
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.499-509
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    • 2013
  • Seafarers are one of the main engines driving economic growth in the maritime sector. The International Maritime (IMO) Organization estimated that there were approximately 1.5 million seafarers around the world engaged in international trade in 2012. Data have shown that human casualties in maritime accidents around Japan have shown an increasing trend over the last ten years. One cause is human error, which is inseparable from the human element that influences mariner's decisions and actions. The Personal Identification (PIN) Safe method is one way to systematically identify substandard and unsafe actions by considering the error taxonomies associated with various scenarios for a maritime system. The results are based on analysis of the role of the human element in commonly reported unsafe actions when interacting with equipment and other systems. Furthermore, patterns of influencing shaping factors were observed on the basis of data processing; the aim of this study was to promote safety culture and provide an opportunity to improve safety at sea.

Selected countries' food safety agencies and policies (주요국 식품안전 조직 및 주요정책)

  • Lee, Heejung
    • Food Science and Industry
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.98-109
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    • 2017
  • he safety and quality of the food supply are governed by a complex system and food safety management is one of the most important tasks of every government and government agency. Different types of policies have been developed and emplyed to address current and upcoming challegnes. In many counties including South Korea, much effort has been made to reform food safety system including organizational transformation and policy change. Food safety agencies including their history in four countries -U.S., England, Japan, and EU- are reviewd and major policies which have been recently employed by thses four contries are also examined. Additionally, the report of EU food safety and nutiriton in 2050 is introduced and scenarios of future change and policy responses in the report are exmained. Lastly, insight into this issue is given based on review of organizational transformation and major policies in four countries.

Scenario Planning based on Collective Intelligence Using Wiki (위키를 활용한 집단지성 기반의 시나리오 플래닝)

  • Han, Jongmin;Yim, Hyun;Lee, Jae-Shin
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.29-48
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    • 2012
  • As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

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PRC Maritime Operational Capability and the Task for the ROK Military (중국군의 해양작전능력과 한국군의 과제)

  • Kim, Min-Seok
    • Strategy21
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    • s.33
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    • pp.65-112
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    • 2014
  • Recent trends show that the PRC has stepped aside its "army-centered approach" and placed greater emphasis on its Navy and Air Force for a wider range of operations, thereby reducing its ground force and harnessing its economic power and military technology into naval development. A quantitative growth of the PLA Navy itself is no surprise as this is not a recent phenomenon. Now is the time to pay closer attention to the level of PRC naval force's performance and the extent of its warfighting capacity in the maritime domain. It is also worth asking what China can do with its widening naval power foundation. In short, it is time to delve into several possible scenarios I which the PRC poses a real threat. With this in mind, in Section Two the paper seeks to observe the construction progress of PRC's naval power and its future prospects up to the year 2020, and categorize time frame according to its major force improvement trends. By analyzing qualitative improvements made over time, such as the scale of investment and the number of ships compared to increase in displacement (tonnage), this paper attempts to identify salient features in the construction of naval power. Chapter Three sets out performance evaluation on each type of PRC naval ships as well as capabilities of the Navy, Air Force, the Second Artillery (i.e., strategic missile forces) and satellites that could support maritime warfare. Finall, the concluding chapter estimates the PRC's maritime warfighting capability as anticipated in respective conflict scenarios, and considers its impact on the Korean Peninsula and proposes the directions ROK should steer in response. First of all, since the 1980s the PRC navy has undergone transitions as the focus of its military strategic outlook shifted from ground warfare to maritime warfare, and within 30 years of its effort to construct naval power while greatly reducing the size of its ground forces, the PRC has succeeded in building its naval power next to the U.S.'s in the world in terms of number, with acquisition of an aircraft carrier, Chinese-version of the Aegis, submarines and so on. The PRC also enjoys great potentials to qualitatively develop its forces such as indigenous aircraft carriers, next-generation strategic submarines, next-generation destroyers and so forth, which is possible because the PRC has accumulated its independent production capabilities in the process of its 30-year-long efforts. Secondly, one could argue that ROK still has its chances of coping with the PRC in naval power since, despite its continuous efforts, many estimate that the PRC naval force is roughly ten or more years behind that of superpowers such as the U.S., on areas including radar detection capability, EW capability, C4I and data-link systems, doctrines on force employment as well as tactics, and such gap cannot be easily overcome. The most probable scenarios involving the PRC in sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula are: first, upon the outbreak of war in the peninsula, the PRC may pursue military intervention through sea, thereby undermining efforts of the ROK-U.S. combined operations; second, ROK-PRC or PRC-Japan conflicts over maritime jurisdiction or ownership over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands could inflict damage to ROK territorial sovereignty or economic gains. The PRC would likely attempt to resolve the conflict employing blitzkrieg tactics before U.S. forces arrive on the scene, while at the same time delaying and denying access of the incoming U.S. forces. If this proves unattainable, the PRC could take a course of action adopting "long-term attrition warfare," thus weakening its enemy's sustainability. All in all, thiss paper makes three proposals on how the ROK should respond. First, modern warfare as well as the emergent future warfare demonstrates that the center stage of battle is no longer the domestic territory, but rather further away into the sea and space. In this respect, the ROKN should take advantage of the distinct feature of battle space on the peninsula, which is surrounded by the seas, and obtain capabilities to intercept more than 50 percent of the enemy's ballistic missiles, including those of North Korea. In tandem with this capacity, employment of a large scale of UAV/F Carrier for Kill Chain operations should enhance effectiveness. This is because conditions are more favorable to defend from sea, on matters concerning accuracy rates against enemy targets, minimized threat of friendly damage, and cost effectiveness. Second, to maintain readiness for a North Korean crisis where timely deployment of US forces is not possible, the ROKN ought to obtain capabilities to hold the enemy attack at bay while deterring PRC naval intervention. It is also argued that ROKN should strengthen its power so as to protect national interests in the seas surrounding the peninsula without support from the USN, should ROK-PRC or ROK-Japan conflict arise concerning maritime jurisprudence. Third, the ROK should fortify infrastructures for independent construction of naval power and expand its R&D efforts, and for this purpose, the ROK should make the most of the advantages stemming from the ROK-U.S. alliance inducing active support from the United States. The rationale behind this argument is that while it is strategically effective to rely on alliance or jump on the bandwagon, the ultimate goal is always to acquire an independent response capability as much as possible.