• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.30-45
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• 2013

Predicting monthly electricity price has been a significant factor of decision-making for plant resource management, fuel purchase plan, plans to plant, operating plan budget, and so on. In this paper, we propose a sophisticated prediction model in terms of the technique of modeling and the variety of the collected variables. The proposed model hybridizes the semi-supervised learning and the artificial neural network algorithms. The former is the most recent and a spotlighted algorithm in data mining and machine learning fields, and the latter is known as one of the well-established algorithms in the fields. Diverse economic/financial indexes such as the crude oil prices, LNG prices, exchange rates, composite indexes of representative global stock markets, etc. are collected and used for the semi-supervised learning which predicts the up-down movement of the price. Whereas various climatic indexes such as temperature, rainfall, sunlight, air pressure, etc, are used for the artificial neural network which predicts the real-values of the price. The resulting values are hybridized in the proposed model. The excellency of the model was empirically verified with the monthly data of electricity price provided by the Korea Energy Economics Institute.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-24
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• 2005

The results of a study of the coordination effect in stocking and promotional markdown policies for a supply chain consisting of a retailer and a discount outlet (DCO) are reported here. We assume that the product is sold in two consecutive periods: the Normal Sales Period (NSP) and the subsequent Promotional Markdown Sales Period (PSP). We first study an integrated supply chain in which managers in the two periods design a common system so as to jointly decide the stocking quantities, markdown time schedule, and markdown price to maximize mutual profit. Next, we consider a decentralized supply chain. An uncoordinated contract is designed in which decisions are decentralized to optimize the individual party's objective function. Here, three sources of system inefficiencies cause the decentralized system to earn a lower expected system profit than that in the integrated supply chain. The three sources are as follows: in the decentralized system the retailer tends to (1) stock less, and (2) keep a longer sales period, and the DCO tends to (3) stock fewer leftovers inventories and charge a higher markdown price. Finally, a numerical experiment is provided to compare the coordinated model with the uncoordinated model to explore factors that make coordination an effective approach.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.213-234
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• 2024

In recent decades, increasing research attention has been directed toward predicting the price of stocks in financial markets using deep learning methods. For instance, recurrent neural network (RNN) is known to be competitive for datasets with time-series data. Long short term memory (LSTM) further improves RNN by providing an alternative approach to the gradient loss problem. LSTM has its own advantage in predictive accuracy by retaining memory for a longer time. In this paper, we combine both supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction methods with LSTM to enhance the forecasting performance and refer to this as a dimension reduction based LSTM (DR-LSTM) approach. For a supervised dimension reduction method, we use methods such as sliced inverse regression (SIR), sparse SIR, and kernel SIR. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA), sparse PCA, and kernel PCA are used as unsupervised dimension reduction methods. Using datasets of real stock market index (S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, and KOSPI), we present a comparative study on predictive accuracy between six DR-LSTM methods and time series modeling.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.175-182
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• 2013

In this paper, the simulation model of house price is presented on the basis of pricing mechanism between the demand and the supply of apartments in seoul. The algorithm of house price simulation model for calculating the rate of price over time includes feedback control theory. The feedback control theory consists of stock variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and constant variable. We suggest that the future price of apartment is simulated using mutual interaction variables which are demand, supply, price and parameters among them. In this paper we considers three items which include the behavior of apartment price index, the size of demand and supply, and the forecasting of the apartment price in the future economic scenarios. The proposed price simulation model could be used in public needs for developing a house price regulation policy using financial and non-financial aids. And the quantitative simulation model is to be applied in practice with more specific real data and Powersim Software modeling tool.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.689-694
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• 2009

In this paper an approach to building fuzzy models for predicting daily and weekly stock prices is presented. Predicting stock prices with traditional time series analysis has proven to be difficult. Fuzzy logic based models have advantage of expressing the input-output relation linguistically, which facilitates the understanding of the system behavior. In building a stock prediction model we bear a burden of selecting most effective indicators for the stock prediction. In this paper information used in traditional candle stick-chart analysis is considered as input variables of our fuzzy models. The fuzzy rules have the premises and the consequents composed of trapezoidal membership functions and nonlinear equations, respectively. DE(Differential Evolution) identifies optimal fuzzy rules through an evolutionary process. The fuzzy models to predict daily and weekly open, high, low, and close prices of KOSPI(KOrea composite Stock Price Index) are built, and their performances are demonstrated.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.429-442
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• 2015

Volatility forecasting in financial markets is an important issue because it is directly related to the profit of return. The volatility is generally modeled as time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is often used for modeling; however, it is not suitable to reflect structural changes (such as a financial crisis or debt crisis) into the volatility. As a remedy, we introduce the Markov regime switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model. For the empirical example, we analyze and forecast the volatility of the daily Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) data from January 4, 2000 to October 30, 2014. The result shows that the regime of low volatility persists with a leverage effect. We also observe that the performance of MRS-GARCH is superior to other GARCH models for in-sample fitting; in addition, it is also superior to other models for long-term forecasting in out-of-sample fitting. The MRS-GARCH model can be a good alternative to GARCH-type models because it can reflect financial market structural changes into modeling and volatility forecasting.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.257-280
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• 2022

In this study, we analyzed comments on news articles of representative companies of the three industries (i.e., semiconductor, secondary battery, and bio industries) that had been listed as national strategic technology projects of South Korea to identify public opinions towards them. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between changes in public opinion and stock price. 'Samsung Electronics' and 'SK Hynix' in the semiconductor industry, 'Samsung SDI' and 'LG Chem' in the secondary battery industry, and 'Samsung Biologics' and 'Celltrion' in the bio-industry were selected as the representative companies and 47,452 comments of news articles about the companies that had been published from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, were collected from Naver News. The comments were grouped into positive, neutral, and negative emotions, and the dynamic topics of comments over time in each group were analyzed to identify the trends of public opinion in each industry. As a result, in the case of the semiconductor industry, investment, COVID-19 related issues, trust in large companies such as Samsung Electronics, and mention of the damage caused by changes in government policy were the topics. In the case of secondary battery industries, references to investment, battery, and corporate issues were the topics. In the case of bio-industries, references to investment, COVID-19 related issues, and corporate issues were the topics. Next, to understand whether the sentiment of the comments is related to the actual stock price, for each company, the changes in the stock price and the sentiment values of the comments were compared and analyzed using visual analytics. As a result, we found a clear relationship between the changes in the sentiment value of public opinion and the stock price through the similar patterns shown in the change graphs. This study analyzed comments on news articles that are highly related to stock price, identified changes in public opinion trends in the COVID-19 era, and provided objective feedback to government agencies' policymaking.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.45-57
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• 2024

This study develops a deep learning-based methodology for predicting Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices. Palm oil is an essential resource across various industries due to its yield and economic efficiency, leading to increased industrial interest in its price volatility. While numerous studies have been conducted on palm oil price prediction, most rely on time series forecasting, which has inherent accuracy limitations. To address the main limitation of traditional methods-the absence of stationarity-this research introduces a novel model that uses the ratio of future prices to current prices as the dependent variable. This approach, inspired by return modeling in stock price predictions, demonstrates superior performance over simple price prediction. Additionally, the methodology incorporates the consideration of lag values of independent variables, a critical factor in multivariate time series forecasting, to eliminate unnecessary noise and enhance the stability of the prediction model. This research not only significantly improves the accuracy of palm oil price prediction but also offers an applicable approach for other economic forecasting issues where time series data is crucial, providing substantial value to the industry.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1661-1671
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• 2016

Risk analysis is a systematic study of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business, engineering, public policy, and many other areas. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most widely used risk measurements in risk management. In this paper, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index data has been utilized to model the VaR employing the classical ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models with normal, t, generalized hyperbolic, and generalized pareto distributed errors. The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of each model in estimating the VaR. The performance of models were compared in terms of the number of VaR violations and Kupiec exceedance test. The GARCH-GPD likelihood ratio unconditional test statistic has been found to have the smallest value among the models.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.20-33
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• 2010

This study investigates the relationships of total quality management (TQM), organizational learning (OL) activities and business performance and examines the partial mediation effect of OL activities on business performance in Korean industrial manufacturing setting. Main target sample firms were all manufacturing companies listed in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and 206 firms participated. This study theoretically develops a conceptual model with 3 hypotheses regarding how TQM practices influence OL activities and how the OL activities partially mediate between the TQM practices and business performance. To examine these hypotheses, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed and an alternative model which includes a path between errors of leadership factor and OL construct was developed. The findings are TQM practices cannot directly influence business performance but indirectly impact business performance through OL activities. This study found that OL activities playa role as firms' critical competency to improve business performance.