• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Program

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A Stochastic Model to Quantify the Risk of Introduction of Abalone Herpes-like Virus Through Import of Abalones (활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증 (abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.40-45
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    • 2014
  • Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

A Study on Measurement Error Reduction of Indoor and Outdoor Location Determination in Fingerprint Method (실내외 위치측위를 위한 Fingerprint 기반 측정오차 감소 방안 연구)

  • Kwon, Dae-Woo;Lee, Doo-Yong;Song, Young-Keun;Jang, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2011
  • Location-Based Service(LBS) is a service that provides a variety of convenience in life using location information that can be obtained by mobile communication network or satellite signal. In order to provide LBS precisely and efficiently, we need the location determination technology, platform technology and server technology. In this study, we studied on how we can reduce the error on location determination of objects such people and things. Fingerprint location determination method was applied to this study because it can be used at current wireless communication infrastructure and less influenced by a variety of noisy environment than other location determination methods. We converted the probability value to logarithmic scale value because using the sum of k probability values is not suitable to be applied to weight determination. In order to confirm the performance of suggested method, we developed location determination test program with Visual Basic 6.0 and performed the test. According to indoor and outdoor test results, the suggested stochastic method reduced the distance error by 17%, 18% and 9% respectively at indoor environment and 25%, 11% and 4% at outdoor environment compared with deterministic NN, kNN and kWNN fingerprint methods.

Research Trends of Ergonomics in Occupational Safety and Health through MEDLINE Search: Focus on Abstract Word Modeling using Word Embedding (MEDLINE 검색을 통한 산업안전보건 분야에서의 인간공학 연구동향 : 워드임베딩을 활용한 초록 단어 모델링을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jun Hee;Hwang, Ui Jae;Ahn, Sun Hee;Gwak, Gyeong Tae;Jung, Sung Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to analyze the research trends of the abstract data of ergonomic studies registered in MEDLINE, a medical bibliographic database, using word embedding. Medical-related ergonomic studies mainly focus on work-related musculoskeletal disorders, and there are no studies on the analysis of words as data using natural language processing techniques, such as word embedding. In this study, the abstract data of ergonomic studies were extracted with a program written with selenium and BeutifulSoup modules using python. The word embedding of the abstract data was performed using the word2vec model, after which the data found in the abstract were vectorized. The vectorized data were visualized in two dimensions using t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). The word "ergonomics" and ten of the most frequently used words in the abstract were selected as keywords. The results revealed that the most frequently used words in the abstract of ergonomics studies include "use", "work", and "task". In addition, the t-SNE technique revealed that words, such as "workplace", "design", and "engineering," exhibited the highest relevance to ergonomics. The keywords observed in the abstract of ergonomic studies using t-SNE were classified into four groups. Ergonomics studies registered with MEDLINE have investigated the risk factors associated with workers performing an operation or task using tools, and in this study, ergonomics studies were identified by the relationship between keywords using word embedding. The results of this study will provide useful and diverse insights on future research direction on ergonomic studies.

Application of rock mass index in the prediction of mine water inrush and grouting quantity

  • Zhao, Jinhai;Liu, Qi;Jiang, Changbao;Defeng, Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2022
  • The permeability coefficient is an essential parameter for the study of seepage flow in fractured rock mass. This paper discusses the feasibility and application value of using readily available RQD (rock quality index) data to estimate mine water inflow and grouting quantity. Firstly, the influence of different fracture frequencies on permeability in a unit area was explored by combining numerical simulation and experiment, and the relationship between fracture frequencies and pressure and flow velocity at the monitoring point in fractured rock mass was obtained. Then, the stochastic function generation program was used to establish the flow analysis model in fractured rock mass to explore the relationship between flow velocity, pressure and analyze the universal law between fracture frequency and permeability. The concepts of fracture width and connectivity are introduced to modify the permeability calculation formula and grouting formula. Finally, based on the on-site grouting water control example, the rock mass quality index is used to estimate the mine water inflow and the grouting quantity. The results show that it is feasible to estimate the fracture frequency and then calculate the permeability coefficient by RQD. The relationship between fracture frequency and RQD is in accordance with exponential function, and the relationship between structure surface frequency and permeability is also in accordance with exponential function. The calculation results are in good agreement with the field monitoring results, which verifies the rationality of the calculation method. The relationship between the rock mass RQD index and the rock mass permeability established in this paper can be used to invert the mechanical parameters of the rock mass or to judge the permeability and safety of the rock mass by using the mechanical parameters of the rock mass, which is of great significance to the prediction of mine water inflow and the safety evaluation of water inrush disaster management.

Design of Partial Discharge Pattern Classifier of Softmax Neural Networks Based on K-means Clustering : Comparative Studies and Analysis of Classifier Architecture (K-means 클러스터링 기반 소프트맥스 신경회로망 부분방전 패턴분류의 설계 : 분류기 구조의 비교연구 및 해석)

  • Jeong, Byeong-Jin;Oh, Sung-Kwun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.114-123
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    • 2018
  • This paper concerns a design and learning method of softmax function neural networks based on K-means clustering. The partial discharge data Information is preliminarily processed through simulation using an Epoxy Mica Coupling sensor and an internal Phase Resolved Partial Discharge Analysis algorithm. The obtained information is processed according to the characteristics of the pattern using a Motor Insulation Monitoring System program. At this time, the processed data are total 4 types that void discharge, corona discharge, surface discharge and slot discharge. The partial discharge data with high dimensional input variables are secondarily processed by principal component analysis method and reduced with keeping the characteristics of pattern as low dimensional input variables. And therefore, the pattern classifier processing speed exhibits improved effects. In addition, in the process of extracting the partial discharge data through the MIMS program, the magnitude of amplitude is divided into the maximum value and the average value, and two pattern characteristics are set and compared and analyzed. In the first half of the proposed partial discharge pattern classifier, the input and hidden layers are classified by using the K-means clustering method and the output of the hidden layer is obtained. In the latter part, the cross entropy error function is used for parameter learning between the hidden layer and the output layer. The final output layer is output as a normalized probability value between 0 and 1 using the softmax function. The advantage of using the softmax function is that it allows access and application of multiple class problems and stochastic interpretation. First of all, there is an advantage that one output value affects the remaining output value and its accompanying learning is accelerated. Also, to solve the overfitting problem, L2-normalization is applied. To prove the superiority of the proposed pattern classifier, we compare and analyze the classification rate with conventional radial basis function neural networks.

A Study on the Presentation of Entrance Surface Dose Model using Semiconductor Dosimeter, General Dosimeter, Glass Dosimeter: Focusing on Comparative Analysis of Effective Dose and Disease Risk through PCXMC 2.0 based on Monte Carlo Simulation (반도체 선량계, 일반 선량계, 유리 선량계를 이용한 입사표면선량 모델 제시에 관한 연구: 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기반의 PCXMC 2.0을 통한 유효선량과 발병 위험도의 비교분석을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Jun-Ho;Lee, Kyung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2018
  • One of the purposes of radiation protection is to minimize stochastic effects. PCXMC 2.0 is a Monte Carlo Simulation based program and makes it possible to predict effective dose and the probability of cancer development through entrance surface dose. Therefore, it is especially important to measure entrance surface dose through dosimeter. The purpose of this study is to measure entrance surface dose through semiconductor dosimeter, general dosimeter, glass dosimeter, and to compare and analyze the effective dose and probability of disease of critical organs. As an experimental method, the entrance surface dose of skull, chest, abdomen was measured per dosimeter and the effective dose and the probability of cancer development of critical organs per area was evaluated by PCXMC 2.0. As a result, the entrance surface dose per area was different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter even under the same condition. Base on this analysis, the effective dose and probability of developing cancer of critical organs were also different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter. In conclusion, it was found that the effective dose and the risk of diseases differ according to the dosimeter used, even under the same conditions, and through this study it was found that it is important to present an accurate entrance surface dose model according to each dosimeter.

Reliability Assessment Based on an Improved Response Surface Method (개선된 응답면기법에 의한 신뢰성 평가)

  • Cho, Tae Jun;Kim, Lee Hyeon;Cho, Hyo Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2008
  • response surface method (RSM) is widely used to evaluate th e extremely smal probability of ocurence or toanalyze the reliability of very complicated structures. Althoug h Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique can evaluate any system, the procesing time of MCS dependson the reciprocal num ber of the probability of failure. The stochastic finite element method could solve thislimitation. However, it is limit ed to the specific program, in which the mean and coeficient o f random variables are programed by a perturbation or by a weigh ted integral method. Therefore, it is not aplicable when erequisite programing. In a few number of stage analyses, RSM can construct a regresion model from the response of the c omplicated structural system, thus, saving time and efort significantly. However, the acuracy of RSM depends on the dist ance of the axial points and on the linearity of the limit stat e functions. To improve the convergence in exact solution regardl es of the linearity limit of state functions, an improved adaptive response surface method is developed. The analyzed res ults have ben verified using linear and quadratic forms of response surface functions in two examples. As a result, the be st combination of the improved RSM techniques is determined and programed in a numerical code. The developed linear adapti ve weighted response surface method (LAW-RSM) shows the closest converged reliability indices, compared with quadratic form or non-adaptive or non-weighted RSMs.

A Study on Research of Necessity and Practice of Contents of Clothing and Textiles Education (의생활 교육내용의 필요도와 실천도 조사 연구)

  • 박일록;이은희
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.89-103
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate to relation of necessity and practice of contents of clothing and textiles education(classify them into four units, choice and dressing of clothes, textile and management of clothes, design and sewing of clothes, knitting and embroidery). Method of posing a questionnaire is adopted to obtain stochastic data required for pertinent analysis. This is the investigation of which 400 (high school students 204, university students 196) girl students located in Choongnam and Junrabookdo province. In this statistical analysis, SPSS 10.0 for Windows Program was utilized to calculate percentage, mean and standard deviation. Also, these materials were verified by t-test, One-way Anova, Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results of this research were as follows. First, girl students' necessity mean point were higher than practice mean point about the contents of clothing and textiles education. And necessity had a positive relationship with practices of contents of clothing and textiles education. Second, there was a significant difference in necessity and practice of contents of clothing and textiles education according to demographic variables. These results should be provide fundamental information for improving students' critical practice in their real life. Since this study has touched only limited research on the topic of clothing and textiles education, it is essential that further research covering a wider array of themes be done in the future. this study has touched only limited research on the topic of clothing and textiles education, it is essential that further research covering a wider array of themes be done in the future.

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Mediation analysis of dietary habits, nutrient intakes, daily life in the relationship between working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome : the sixth (2013 ~ 2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (교대근무자의 근무시간과 대사증후군의 관계에서 식습관, 영양섭취상태, 일상생활의 매개효과 분석 : 6기 국민건강영양조사 (2013 ~ 2015) 데이터 이용)

  • Kim, Yoona;Kim, Hyeon Hee;Lim, Dong Hoon
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.567-579
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the mediation effects of dietary habits, nutrient intake, daily life in the relationship between the working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome. Methods: Data were collected from the sixth (2013-2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The stochastic regression imputation was used to fill missing data. Statistical analysis was performed in Korean shift workers with metabolic syndrome using the SPSS 24 program for Windows and a structural equation model (SEM) using an analysis of moment structure (AMOS) 21.0 package. Results: The model fitted the data well in terms of the goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.939, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.025, normed fit index (NFI) = 0.917, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) = 0.984, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.987, and adjusted goodness of fit index (AGFI) = 0.915. Specific mediation effect of dietary habits (p = 0.023) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on nutrient intake, and specific mediation effect of daily life (p = 0.019) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on metabolic syndrome. On the other hand, the dietary habits, nutrient intake and daily life had no significant multiple mediator effects on the working hours of shift workers with metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: The appropriate model suggests that working hours have direct effect on the daily life, which has the mediation effect on the risk of metabolic syndrome in shift workers.