• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.173-201
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• 2020

As the US's trade deficit with China and China's manufacturing industry has risen rapidly, the US has begun to regulate trade items as part of China's checks. Four rounds of reprisal measures have greatly altered the trade structures of both countries. In particular, Korea, which is highly dependent on the US and China, has been directly affected by US-China trade disputes. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of US-China trade disputes on the stock price of Korean export firms by performing an event study. This study analyzed stock price fluctuations for 7 days before and after entry into forced [Please check] retaliatory tariffs on Korean exporters' export items subject to retaliatory tariffs. According to the analysis results, among companies that produce goods with major tariffs imposed on China by the US, such as electronic appliances, semiconductors, machinery, and automobiles, those producing electronics and semiconductor products were positively affected by the tariff incident. Secondly, among the companies producing steel, chemicals, and machinery, which the main tariffs imposed by the United States, companies producing steel and chemicals were negatively affected by the incident due to the stagnation of trade between China and the US. The results of this study suggest future trade policy directions for Korea and help to establish an export strategy for major industries.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.187-203
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of non-tariff barriers on the Free Trade Agreement. Currently, it has achieved significant export effects by signing free trade agreements with many countries in Korea. However, most countries have implemented non-tariff barriers to protect their industries. This study analyzes the effects of non-tariff barriers in counterpart countries that have signed a free trade agreement. Design/methodology/approach - For analysis, first, prior studies were summarized, and second, the current status of free trade agreements and non-tariff barriers were identified. And, based on the current situation, the relationship between non-tariff barriers and export volume was analyzed. The targets of analysis are the United States, China, and Vietnam, which are Korea's three largest exporters. As for non-tariff barriers, anti-dumping tariffs, countervailing tariffs, and emergency import restrictions were analyzed as import regulatory measures. Findings - In the case of the United States, it can be seen that the decline in textiles, steel and electronics sectors is even greater. In the case of China, it can be seen that exports declined after imposing non-tariff barriers in the steel sector. Finally, it can be seen that exports declined after Vietnam implemented a non-tariff barrier on the steel sector. It was found that non-tariff barriers offset the effects of the Free Trade Agreement. Research implications or Originality - Currently, Korea has free trade agreements with numerous countries. However, after the free trade agreement entered into force, the number of annual average import regulation investigations for Korean products is on the rise. In the end, the implementation of non-tariff barriers is offsetting the effects of free trade agreements. Therefore, when signing a free trade agreement, it is necessary to thoroughly prepare for import regulatory measures such as the insertion of provisions of non-tariff barriers.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.355-375
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• 2022

In this study, LCA based on EU PAS 2050 and Product Category Rules (PCR) was conducted for steel products with the highest proportion of Korea's exports to the EU among the carbon border adjustment items that were passed by the EU Parliament in June and applied to imports from 2025. Carbon emissions were calculated by (ISO 14040) analysis. As a result of the analysis, the total emission is 394,000 tons, and when converted to the EU ETS weekly price, it is 39,000.000 euros, which is about 5% of the export amount of 734 million dollars. This is the same effect as a 5% tariff increase. This study applies international standards in calculating the carbon footprint and provides information that is closest to the expected amount to be imposed in the future EU CBAM, providing the effect of enabling exporters to establish trade strategies and international competitiveness measures in advance.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.291-305
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• 2022

In this study, the volume of Pohang Port was predicted. All cargo of Pohang port, iron ore, steel, and bituminous coals were selected as prediction targets. SARIMA, Prophet, and Neural Prophet were used as analysis methods. The predictive power of each model was verified, and a predictive model with high performance was used to predict the volume of goods in Pohang port. As a result of the analysis, it was found that Neural Prophet showed the highest performance in all predictive power. As a result of predicting the future volume of goods until August 2027 using Neural Prophet, it was found that the volume of all items in Pohang port was decreasing. In particular, it was analyzed that the decline in steel cargo was steep. In order to increase the volume of cargo at Pohang port, it is necessary to diversify the cargo handled at Pohang port and check the policy of increasing the volume of cargo.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.37-44
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• 2014

Purpose - This study reviews changes in the automobile export-import structure between Japan and USA through a trade related index, and focuses on analyzing comparative advantage based on time-series analysis of statistical data (2000, 2005, and 2012) by using the trade intensity index (TII), revealed comparative advantage index (RCA), and trade specialization index (TSI). Research design, data, and methodology - Japan and USA have mutually complementary economic phase characteristics. Therefore, this study aimed to understand each country's trade structure, to strengthen Japan-USA economic cooperation and aimed to examine trade drawbacks to analyze causes affecting trade and ways to improve it to facilitate its expansion. Results - These two economies have immense complementary potential and, further, significantly greater profits are assured from trade between them, as compared to any other integrated regional economic community. Conclusion - Economic cooperation between these two powers can provide opportunities for industry technology cooperation through partnerships against the backdrop of accelerating competition among industries, by identifying opportunities to secure stable resource suppliers and enlarge the export market.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.27-48
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• 2022

In the past decade, Korea and Japan have increasingly exhibited different strategic priorities in trade in face of China's rising global economic prowess and worsening US-China trade conflict. Japan's trade policy decisions have worked to reinforce its economic and security ties with the US as a means to counter China. Japan has used both bilateral and multilateral means to secure its ties with the US against China. In contrast, Korea's trade policy positions have been one of 'strategic ambiguity'. Korea has been more conciliatory towards China, reluctant to take actions that would counter China's interest. Korea has mainly resorted to bilateral channels to maintain favorable relations with both China and the US. Korea's reluctance to clearly ally with the US against China has been observed across different administrations with opposing political orientations. This paper examines Korea and Japan's diverging strategic priorities in trade through the 2017 World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference; the 2017 US imposition of Section 232 on steel; the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Korea-US FTA renegotiation and the Korea-China FTA Phase Two Negotiation; and the 2019 Japan-US Trade Agreement.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.111-129
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• 2017

According to the World Bank statistics, China's contribution to global economic growth during the year of 2013-2016 was estimated at 31.6 percent. This figure is even larger than 29.0 percent, the contribution by summing each contribution of the United States, EU and Japan. The Chinese commodity trade accounts for up to 11.5 percent of world trade volume. Thus, we can consider that the Chinese economy has a strong influence on the global economy. The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the contribution level of Chinese seaborne trade volume on world economy. First, this study conducted a time-lag analysis using Moran test, so we can find that China's level of contribution to global economic growth varies from time to time. The contribution of the first phase (1999-2007) was nearly three times higher than the contributions from the second phase (2008-2016), suggesting that the overall contraction of the global trade volume starting from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has continued until recently and recovery has not even occurred. Second, using the econometrics model, this study conducted an regression analysis of the impact of Chinese imports and exports in chemicals, grain, steel, crude oil, and container on global economic growth. Fixed effects model with time series data has been applied to examine the effect of Chinese seaborne trade volume on global economic growth. According to the empirical analysis of this study, China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain have significant contributions to global economic growth. Estimates of China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain are 1.023, 1.020, 1.019, 1.007 and 1.006, respectively. For example, the estimated value 1.023 of China's exports of steel products means that the growth rate can be 1.023 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate if Chinese seaborne trade volume of exports of steel products increased by one unit (one million tons). This study concludes that the expansion of China's imports and exports should be realized first to increase the global GDP growth rate. The expansion of Chinese trade can lead to a simultaneous stimulus of production and consumption in China, which can even lead to global economic growth ultimately. Thus, depending on how much China's trade will be broaden in the future, the width of global economic growth can be determined.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.341-360
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• 2010

The goal of this study is to forecast the scales of seaborne trade of iron ore and coal. It is assumed that the seaborne trade of iron ore is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world GDP) and the seaborne trade of coal is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world electricity generation). The result shows that the regressions of two functions are statistically significant respectively. As the results of forecasting, the seaborne trade of iron ore in 2010 may be 892 million tons which is increased 5.1% compare to the level of 2009. Also the seaborne trade of coal in 2010 may be 827 million tons which is increased 6.1% compare to the level of 2009. In terms of the compound annual growth rate, it is forecasted that the iron ore may show 4.7% of increasing rate from 2009 to 2015 and the seaborne trade of coal may be increased 6.1% annually for the same period.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.89-111
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• 2021

Purpose - The U.S. Trade Preference Expansion Act (TPEA) of 2015 enables the US Department of Commerce (DOC) to inflate dumping margin when the particular market situation (PMS) exists in the exporter's home market. DOC applied PMS provisions to the steel products from Korea. This paper analyzes whether DOC's calculation by using the regression analysis is consistent with WTO rules. Design/methodology - This paper analyzes the PMS application in law and regression analysis that extends the data period from 10 years to 18 years using the same economic model with DOC, and changes the country group according to the quantities of steelmaking capacity. Findings - Results show that DOC's argument conflating the sales-based with cost-based PMS designed to inflate dumping margins might not be consistent with WTO Antidumping Agreement Article 2.2 and 2.2.1.1 in which costs shall normally be calculated on the basis of records kept by the exporter, providing generally accepted accounting principles and reasonably reflection of the costs and PMS that exists in the Korean steel product markets. Even if it will be consistent, DOC's calculated margin by the regression analysis using a 10-year data is a big gap (5 times) compared with an 18-year data projection and different countries' data through the same methodology, which is a huge gap of regression coefficient. It means that dumping margin would be very wide range from 7.8% to 38.54% and unstable to calculate. Inflating dumping margin by DOC using regression analysis would not only be inconsistent with WTO rules, but also projection result is unreliable. Originality/value - Literature papers have mainly analyzed WTO law itself. This paper however, would be the first attempt to analyze the DOC's new way of dumping margin calculation in both manners of law and an empirical methodology perspective at the same time.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.215-231
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• 2022

Analysis and forecasting of the Baltic Capsize Index (BCI) is important for managing an entity's losses and risks from the uncertainty and volatility of the fast-changing maritime transport market in the future. This study conducted volatility transition analysis through the GARCH model, using BCI which is highly related to steel raw materials. As for the data, 2,385 monthly data were used from March 1999 to March 2021. In this study, after basic statistical analysis, unit root and cointegration test, the GARCH, EGARCH, and DCC-GARCH models were used for volatility transition analysis. As the results of GARCH and EGARCH model, we confirmed that all variables had no autocorrelation between the standardized residuals for error terms and the square of residuals, that the variability of all variables at this time was likely to persist in the future, and that the variability of the time-series error term impact according to Iron ore trade (IoT). In addition, through the EGARCH model, the magnitude convenience of all variables except the Iron ore price (IOP) and Capesize bulk fleet (BCF) variables was greater than the positive value (+). As a result of analyzing the DCC-GARCH (1,1) model, partial linear combinations were confirmed over the entire period. Estimating the effect of variability transition on BCF and C5 with statistically significant linear combinations with BCI confirmed that the impact of BCF on BCI was greater than the impact of BCI itself.