• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1996년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 고려대학교, 서울; 26 Oct. 1996
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• pp.39-42
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• 1996

Modeling techniques such as linear regression have been used to predict hurricane activity many months in advance of the start of the hurricane season with some success. In this paper, we construct feedforward neural networks to model Atlantic basin hurricane activity and compare the predictions of our neural network models to the predictions produced by statistical models found in the weather forecasting literature. We find that our neural network models produce reasonably accurate predictions that, for the most part, compare favorably to the predictions of statistical models.

• 천문학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• 동력기계공학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2009

This paper discusses the influence on long-tenn predictions of the ship response in ocean by using the Global Wave Statistics data, GWS, and wave information from the remote sensing satellites. GWS's standard scatter diagrams of significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period are suggested to be corrected to a round number of 0.01/1000 fitted with a statistical analytic model of the conditional lognormal distribution for zero-crossing wave period. The GEOSAT satellite data are utilized which presented by I. R. Young and G. J. Holland (1996, named as GEOSAT data). At first, qualities of this data are investigated, and statistical characteristic trends are studied by means of applying known probability distribution functions. The wave height data of GEOSAT are compared to the data observed onboard merchant ships, the data observed by measure instrument installed on the ocean-going container ship and so on. To execute a long-tenn prediction of ship response, joint probability functions between wave height and wave period are introduced, therefore long-term statistical predictions are executed by using the functions.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.36.1-36.11
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• 2021

Predicting individual traits and diseases from genetic variants is critical to fulfilling the promise of personalized medicine. The genetic variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), including variants well below GWAS significance, can be aggregated into highly significant predictions across a wide range of complex traits and diseases. The recent arrival of large-sample public biobanks enables highly accurate polygenic predictions based on genetic variants across the whole genome. Various statistical methodologies and diverse computational tools have been introduced and developed to computed the polygenic risk score (PRS) more accurately. However, many researchers utilize PRS tools without a thorough understanding of the underlying model and how to specify the parameters for the best performance. It is advantageous to study the statistical models implemented in computational tools for PRS estimation and the formulas of parameters to be specified. Here, we review a variety of recent statistical methodologies and computational tools for PRS computation.

• 천문학논총
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.79-87
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• 1992

New and improved data on the gravitational lens systems discovered so far are compared with the theoretical predictions of Gott, Park, and Lee (1989, GPL). Systems lensed by a single galaxy, compatible with assumptions of GPL, support flat or near-flat geometry for the universe. But the statistical uncertainty is too large to draw any definite conclusion. We need more lens systems. Also, the probability of multiple image lensing and mean separation of the images averaged over the source distribution are calculated for various cosmological models. Multiple-image lens systems and radio ring systems are compared with the predictions. Although the data reject exotic cosmological models, it cannot discriminate among conventional Friedmann models yet.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.209-217
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• 1993

The multicollinearity problem in a multiple linear regression model may present deleterious effects on predictions. Thus, its is desirable to consider the optimal fractions with respect to the unbiased estimate of the mean squares errors of the predicted values. Interstingly, the optimal fractions can be also illuminated by the Bayesian inerpretation of the general James-Stein estimators.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.406-415
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• 2024

As the equipment of the military has become more advanced and expensive, the cost of securing spare parts is also constantly increasing along with the increase in equipment assets. In particular, forecasting demand for spare parts one of the important management tasks in the military, and the accuracy of these predictions is directly related to military operations and cost management. However, because the demand for spare parts is intermittent and irregular, it is often difficult to make accurate predictions using traditional statistical methods or a single statistical or machine learning model. In this paper, we propose a model that can increase the accuracy of demand forecasting for irregular patterns of spare parts demanding by using a combination of statistical and machine learning algorithm, and through experiments on Cheonma spare parts demanding data.

• International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.116-130
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• 2013

The prediction of ocean currents in real time over the warning times of a few hours or days is required in planning many operation-related activities in the ocean. Traditionally this is done through numerical models which are targeted toward producing spatially distributed information. This paper discusses a complementary method to do so when site-specific predictions are desired. It is based on the use of a recurrent type of neural network as well as the statistical tool of model tree. The measurements made at a site in Indian Ocean over a period of 4 years were used. The predictions were made over 72 time steps in advance. The models developed were found to be fairly accurate in terms of the selected error statistics. Among the two modeling techniques the model tree performed better showing the necessity of using distributed models for different sub-domains of data rather than a unique one over the entire input domain. Typically such predictions were associated with average errors of less than 2.0 cm/s. Although the prediction accuracy declined over longer intervals, it was still very satisfactory in terms of theselected error criteria. Similarly prediction of extreme values matched with that of the rest of predictions. Unlike past studies both east-west and north-south current components were predicted fairly well.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.93-103
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• 2014

This paper deals with the problem of predicting censored data in a half triangle distribution with an unknown parameter based on progressively Type-II censored samples. We derive maximum likelihood predictors and some approximate maximum likelihood predictors of censored failure times in a progressively Type-II censoring scheme. In addition, we construct the shortest-length predictive intervals for censored failure times. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the validity of the proposed methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.445-456
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• 2003

Spatial data are usually obtained at selected locations even though they are potentially available at all locations in a continuous region. Moreover the monitoring locations are clustered in some regions, sparse in other regions. One important goal of spatial data analysis is to predict unknown response values at any location throughout a region of interest. Thus, an appropriate space model should be set up and their estimates and predictions must be accompanied by measures of uncertainty. In this study we see that a space model proposed allows a best interpolation to annual rainfall data in South Korea.