• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic temperature forecasts from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems over PyeongChang area. A statistical post-processing method is used to take into account combination and calibration of forecasts from different numerical prediction systems, laying greater weight on ensemble model that exhibits the best performance. Observations for temperature were obtained from the 30 stations in PyeongChang and three different ensemble forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble Prediction System for Global and Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System that were obtained between 1 May 2014 and 18 March 2017. Prior to applying to the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. Then, ensemble model output statistics and bias-corrected methods were applied to each raw ensemble model and then proposed weighted combination of ensembles. The results showed that the proposed methods provide improved performances than raw ensemble mean. In particular, multi-model forecast based on ensemble model output statistics was superior to the bias-corrected forecast in terms of deterministic prediction.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.12
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• pp.2202-2211
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• 2010

The wind power prediction system is composed of a meteorological forecasting module, calculation module of wind power output and HMI(Human Machine Interface) visualization system. The final information from this system is a short-term (6hr ahead) and mid-term (48hr ahead) wind power prediction value. The meteorological forecasting module for wind speed and direction forecasting is a combination of physical and statistical model. In this system, the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, which is a three-dimensional numerical weather model, is used as the physical model and the GFS(Global Forecasting System) models is used for initial condition forecasting. The 100m resolution terrain data is used to improve the accuracy of this system. In addition, optimization of the physical model carried out using historic weather data in Jeju. The mid-term prediction value from the physical model is used in the statistical method for a short-term prediction. The final power prediction is calculated using an optimal adjustment between the currently observed data and data predicted from the power curve model. The final wind power prediction value is provided to customs using a HMI visualization system. The aim of this study is to further improve the accuracy of this prediction system and develop a practical system for power system operation and the energy market in the Smart-Grid.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.39-44
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• 2024

In order to prevent accidents via defective ammunition, this paper analyzes recent research on ammunition life prediction methodology. This workanalyzes current shelf-life prediction approaches by comparing the pros and cons of physical modeling, accelerated testing, and statistical analysis-based prediction techniques. Physical modeling-based prediction demonstrates its usefulness in understanding the physical properties and interactions of ammunition. Accelerated testing-based prediction is useful in quickly verifying the reliability and safety of ammunition. Additionally, statistical analysis-based prediction is emphasized for its ability to make decisions based on data. This paper aims to contribute to the early detection of defective ammunition by analyzing ammunition life prediction methodology hereby reducing defective ammunition accidents. In order to prepare not only Korean domestic war situation but also the international affairs from Eastern Europe and Mid East countries, it is very important to enhance the stability of organizations using ammunition and reduce costs of potential accidents.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.71-76
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• 2009

This paper describes a statistical analysis method for predicting a coast fishing boat's effective horsepower. The EHP estimation method for small coast fishing boats was developed, based on a statistical regression analysis of model test results in a circulating water channel. The statistical regression formula of a fishing boat's effective horsepower is determined from the regression analysis of the resistance test results for 15 actual coast fishing boats. This method was applied to the effective horsepower prediction of a G/T 4 ton class coast fishing boat. From the estimation of the effective horsepower using this regression formula and the experimental model test of the G/T 4 ton class coast fishing boat, the estimation accuracy was verified under 10 percent of the design speed. However, the effective horsepower prediction method for coast fishing boats using the regression formula will be used at the initial design and hull-form development stage.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.255-264
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• 2008

It is common in practice to use mean squared error(MSE) for prediction. Recently, Park and Shin (2005) and Jones et al. (2007) studied prediction based on mean squared relative error(MSRE). We proposed a new nonparametric way of prediction based on MSRE substituting Jones et al. (2007) and provided a small simulation study which highly supports the proposed method.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.58 no.7
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• pp.1443-1449
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• 2009

This paper presents a profiling model of a wide-window superscalar microprocessor using multiple branch prediction. The key idea is to apply statistical profiling technique to the superscalar microprocessor with a wide instruction window and a multiple branch predictor. The statistical profiling data are used to obtain a synthetical instruction trace, and the consecutive multiple branch prediction rates are utilized for running trace-driven simulation on the synthesized instruction trace. We describe our design and evaluate it with the SPEC 2000 integer benchmarks. Our performance model can achieve accuracy of 8.5 % on the average.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2010

This study tested the applicability of a Data mining tool in the analysis of massive National Pension data for the purpose of developing fraud pension payment prediction model. This study is identified significant variables for fraud pension payment through the statistical analysis process and developed prediction models using data mining methodology.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.19-22
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• 1996

A traditional approach to the prediction of economic and financial variables takes the form of statistical models to summarize past observations and to project them into the envisioned future. Over the past decade, an increasing number of organizations has turned to the use of neural networks. To date, however, many spheres of interest still lack a systematic evaluation of the statistical and neural approaches. One of these lies in the prediction of corporate bond yields for Korea. This paper reports on a comparative evaluation of ARIMA models and neural networks in the context of interest rate prediction. An additional experiment relates to an integration of the two methods. More specifically, the statistical model serves as a filter by providing estimtes which are then used as input into the neural network models.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.203-212
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• 2021

To eliminate ambiguities in the existing methods to simplify Chinese pronunciation learning, we propose a model that can predict the pronunciation of Chinese characters automatically. The proposed model relies on a statistical machine translation (SMT) framework. In particular, we consider the components of Chinese characters as the basic unit and consider the pronunciation prediction as a machine translation procedure (the component sequence as a source sentence, the pronunciation, pinyin, as a target sentence). In addition to traditional features such as the bidirectional word translation and the n-gram language model, we also implement a component similarity feature to overcome some typos during practical use. We incorporate these features into a log-linear model. The experimental results show that our approach significantly outperforms other baseline models.