• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical estimation

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Estimation of the Superelevation Safety Factor Considering Operating Speed at 3-Dimensional Alignment (입체선형의 주행속도를 고려한 편경사 안전율 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Joong-Hyo;Park, Je-Jin;Park, Ju-Won;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.159-163
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    • 2005
  • The propriety between suppliers and demanders in geometric design is very important. Although the final purpose of constructing roads is to concern about the driver s comfort, unfortunately, it has not been considered so far. We've considered the regularity and quickness in considering driver's comfort but there should be considered the safety for the accident as well. If drivers are appeared to be more speeding than designer's intention, there will be needed some supplements to increase the safety rate for the roads. Even if both an upward and downward section are supposed to exist at the same time for solid geometry of the roads like this, it is true that the recent design for the 3-D solid geometry section has been done as flat 2-D and the minimum plane curve radius and the maximum cant have been decided just by calculating without considering operating speed between an upward and downward section at the same point. In this investigation, thus, I'd like to calculate the safety of the cant by considering the speed features of the solid geometry for the first lane of four lane rural roads. To begin with, we investigated the driving speed of the car, which is not been influenced by a preceding car to analyze the influence of the geometrical structure by using Nc-97. Secondly, we statistically analyzed the driving features of the solid geometry after comparing the 6 sections, that is, measuring the driving speed feature at 12 points and combining the influence of the vertical geometry and plane geometry to the driving speed of the plane curve which was researched before. Finally, we estimated the value of cant which considers the driving speed not by using it which has applied uniformly without considering it properly, though there were some differences between a designed speed and driving speed through the result of the basic statistical analysis but by introducing the new safety rate rule, a notion of ${\alpha}$. As a result of the research, we could see the driving features of the car and suggest the safety rate which considers these. For considering the maximum cant, if we apply the safety rate, the result of this experiment, which considers 3-D solid geometry, there'll be the improvement of the driver's safety for designing roads. In addition, after collecting and analyzing the data for the road sections which have various geometrical structures by expanding this experiment it is considered that there should be developed the models which considers 3-D solid geometry.

Is Skeletonized Internal Mammary Artery Harvesting better than Pedicled Harvesting in Respect of the Sternal Blood Flow\ulcorner: An Estimation Using Bone Scan (내유동맥의 골격화 채취는 흉골로의 혈류 감소 측면에서 과연 유리한가 \ulcorner: 골주사를 이용한 평가)

  • 손국희;김영삼;김정택;윤용한;김광호;최원식;백완기
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.511-516
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    • 2004
  • Background: One of the theoretical advantages of skeletonized internal mammary artery harvesting in coronary artery bypass surgery is to minimize the interruption of the sternal blood flow inevitably accompanied by internal mammary harvesting. A study using bone scan is designed to determine the effects of internal mammary artery harvesting technique on the sternal blood flow. Material and Method: From April 2002 to March 2003, 27 patients out of 48 patients who underwent the isolated coronary bypass surgery were enrolled into the study. The enrolled patients underwent bone scan in the preoperative period and postoperative period respectively. Bilateral internal mammary artery was used in 8 patients (BIMA group) and single left internal mammary artery in 19 patients (LIMA group). The patients in LIMA group were divided into two groups: LlMA_skel group, in whom left internal mammary artery was harvested in skeletonized fashion (n=12), and LlMA_ped group, in whom left internal mammary artery was harvested in pedicled fashion (n=7). After the bone scan, the region of interest (ROI) was created on the left of the sternum and the mirror image with the same pixel numbers was placed on the right half of the sternum. The mean counts per pixel on the left side of the sternum was compared with those on the right side and expressed as left to right ratio (L/R ratio). Result: In LIMA group, the L/R ratio decreased from 94.6$\pm$4.1% to 87.9$\pm$6.9% (p=0.003) after the operation as compared to BIMA group, in which no change of the L/R ratio was observed. The changed of the L/R ratio in LlMA_skel group and LlMA_ped group were from 95.3$\pm$4.2% to 88.3$\pm$7.7% and from 93.4$\pm$3.9% to 87.4$\pm$5.8% respectively. The % changes in L/R ratio were -7.44 $\pm$7.08 in LIMA_skel group and -6.17$\pm$9.08 in LiMA_ped group, which did not reach the statistical difference. Conclusion: Ipsilateral sternal blood flow is interrupted by internal mammary artery harvesting as evidenced by the decrease in L/R ratio after left internal mammary artery harvesting irrespective of the harvesting techniques. Skeletonized harvesting did not show superiority in respect to sternal blood flow as compared to pedicled harvesting.

Estimation of the Accuracy of Genomic Breeding Value in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우의 유전체 육종가의 정확도 추정)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Seung Hwan;Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Choi, You Lim;Cho, Yong Min;Kim, Nae Soo;Lee, Jung Jae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate the Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) using Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) method in Hanwoo (Korean native cattle) population. The result is expected to adapt genomic selection onto the national Hanwoo evaluation system. Carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BT), and marbling score (MS) were investigated in 552 Hanwoo progeny-tested steers at Livestock Improvement Main Center. Animals were genotyped with Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777K SNPs). For statistical analysis, Genetic Relationship Matrix (GRM) was formulated on the basis of genotypes and the accuracy of GEBV was estimated with 10-fold Cross-validation method. The accuracies estimated with cross-validation method were between 0.915~0.957. In 534 progeny-tested steers, the maximum difference of GEBV accuracy compared to conventional EBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were 9.56%, 5.78%, 5.78%, and 4.18% respectively. In 3,674 pedigree traced bulls, maximum increased difference of GEBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were increased as 13.54%, 6.50%, 6.50%, and 4.31% respectively. This showed that the implementation of genomic pre-selection for candidate calves to test on meat production traits could improve the genetic gain by increasing accuracy and reducing generation interval in Hanwoo genetic evaluation system to select proven bulls.

Clinical Estimation of Corrected State with Change in Vertex Distance (정점간거리 변화에 따른 교정상태의 임상 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Lee, Hak-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to estimate the changes of corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity with the change in vertex distance. Also we aimed to provide basic data for refraction test. Methods: Using the trial lens, we measured the corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity after performing binocular balance test. We measured the changes of corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity in change of vertex distance. We analyzed statistical significance and relations between vertex distance and corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity. Results: There was no difference in corrected diopter with the change of vertex distance within -1.00D, but the corrected diopter increased with it over - 1.25D. In particular, the change of diopter was largest when the vertex distance increased 15 mm. At over 11.00D, there was large changes of diopter with the changes of vertex distance at 5 mm, 10 mm and 15 mm. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected diopter, there was strong correlation (r=0.999 at 5 mm increase of vertex distance, r=0.982 at 10 mm increase and r=0.957 at 15 mm increase) and also there was significant (p<0.01). At the change of visual acuity in increased of vertex distance, the range of a decrease in visual acuity was large when the changes of vertex distance was largest. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected visual acuity, there was strong correlation (r=0.969 at 5 mm increase of vertex distance, r=0.985 at 10 mm increase and r=0.994 at 15 mm increase) and also there was significant (p<0.01). Conclusions: The vertex distance was very important at the refraction test and at wearing spectacle. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected diopter, and the corrected visual acuity, there was strong correlation and statistically significant. Therefore, the vertex distance should be kept at the refraction using trial lens, and the best fitting was made not to slipping forward, and so we suggested regular refitting of spectacle and the managing method of spectacle were educated to the spectacle wearers.

A Knowledge-based Approach for the Estimation of Effective Sampling Station Frequencies in Benthic Ecological Assessments (지식기반적 방법을 활용한 저서생태계 평가의 유효 조사정점 개수 산정)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Jung, Hoe-In;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Man-Woo;Lee, Chang-Gun;Jin, Sung-Ju;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2011
  • Decision making in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Consultation on the Coastal Area Utilization (CCAU) is footing on the survey reports, thus requires concrete and accurate information on the natural habitats. In spite of the importance of reporting the ecological quality and status of habitats, the accumulated knowledge and recent techniques in ecology such as the use of investigated cases and indicators/indices have not been utilized in evaluation processes. Even the EIA report does not contain sufficient information required in a decision making process for conservation and development. In addition, for CCAU, sampling efforts were so limited that only two or a few stations were set in most study cases. This hampers transferring key ecological information to both specialist review and decision making processes. Hence, setting the effective number of sampling stations can be said as a prior step for better assessment. We introduced a few statistical techniques to determine the number of sampling stations in macrobenthos surveys. However, the application of the techniques requires a preliminary study that cannot be performed under the current assessment frame. An analysis of the spatial configuration of sampling stations from 19 previous studies was carried out as an alternative approach, based on the assumption that those configurations reported in scientific journal contribute to successful understanding of the ecological phenomena. The distance between stations and number of sampling stations in a $4{\times}4$ km unit area were calculated, and the medians of each parameter were 2.3 km, and 3, respectively. For each study, approximated survey area (ASA, $km^2$) was obtained by using the number of sampling stations in a unit area (NSSU) and total number of sampling stations (TNSS). To predict either appropriate ASA or NSSU/TNSS, we found and suggested statistically significant functional relationship among ASA, survey purpose and NSSU. This empirical approach will contribute to increasing sampling effort in a field survey and communicating with reasonable data and information in EIA and CCAU.

Biological Monitoring of Paint Handling Workers exposed to PAHs using Urinary 1-Hydroxypyrene (다핵방향족탄화수소류에 노출된 페인트 취급 근로자에서 요 중 1- Hydroxypyrene을 이용한 생물학적 모니터링)

  • Lee, Jong-Seong;Kim, Eun-A;Lee, Yong-Hag;Moon, Deog-Hwan;Kim, Kwang-Jong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.124-134
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    • 2005
  • To investigate the exposure effect of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), we measured airborne total PAHs as an external dose, urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) as an internal dose of PAHs exposure, and analyzed the relationship between urinary 1-OHP concentration and PAHs exposure. The study population contained 44 workers in steel-pipe coating and paint manufacture industries. The airborne PAHs was obtained during survey day, and urine were sampled at the end of shift. Personal information on age, body weight, height, eniployment duration, smoking habit, and alcohol consumption was obtained by a structured questionnaire. Airborne PAHs were analyzed by the gas chromatograph with mass selective detector. Urinary 1-OHP levels were analyzed by the high performance liquid chromatograph with ultraviolet wavelength detector. For statistical estimation, t-test, ${\chi}^2$-test, analysis of variance, correlation analysis, arid regression analysis were executed by SPSS/PC (Windows version 10). The mean of environmental total PAHs was $87.8{\pm}7.81{\mu}g/m^3$. The mean concentration ($526.5{\pm}2.85{\mu}g/m^3$) of workers in steel-pipe coating industries using coal tar enamel was the higher than that ($17.5{\pm}3.36{\mu}g/m^3$) of workers in paint manufacture industries using coal tar paint. The mean of urinary 1-OHP concentration ($51.63{\pm}3.144{\mu}\;mol/mol$ creatinine) of workers in steel-pipe coating industries was the higher than that ($2.33{\pm}4.709{\mu}\;mol/mol$ creatinine) of workers in paint manufacture industries. The mean of urinary 1-OHP concentration of smokers was the higher than that of non-smokers. There was significant correlation between the urinary concentration of 1-OHP and the environmental concentration of PAHs (r=O.S48, p<0.001), pyrene(r=0.859, p<0.001), and urinary cotinine (r=0.324, p<0.05). The regression equation between the urinary concentration of 1-OHP in ${\mu}g/g$ creatinine($C_{1-OHP}$) and airborne concentration of PAHs (or pyrene) in ${\mu}g/m^3$ ($C_{PAHs}$ or Cpyrene) is: Log ($C_{1-OHP}$)=-0.650+0.889×Log($C_{PAHs}$), where $R^2=0.694$ and n=38 for p<0.001.Log ($C_{1-OHP}$)=1.087+0.707${\times}$Log(Cpyrene), where $R^2=0.713$ and n=38 for p<0.001. From the results of stepwise multiple regression analysis about 1-OHP, significant independents were total PAHs and urinary cotinine (adjusted $R^2=0.743$, p<0.001). In this study, there were significant correlation between the urinary concentration of 1-OHP and the airborne concentration of PAHs. The urinary 1-OHP was effective index as a biomarker of airborne PAHs in workplace. But it was influenced by non-occupational PAHs source, smoking.

Single Laboratory Validation and Uncertainty Estimation of a HPLC Analysis Method for Deoxynivalenol in Noodles (면류에서 HPLC를 이용한 데옥시니발레놀 분석법의 검증과 불확도 산정)

  • Ee, Ok-Hyun;Chang, Hyun-Joo;Kang, Young-Woon;Kim, Mee-Hye;Chun, Hyang-Sook
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.142-149
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    • 2011
  • An isocratic high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for routine analysis of deoxynivalenol in noodles was validated and estimated the measurement uncertainty. Noodles (dried noodle and ramyeon) were analyzed by HPLC-ultraviolet detection using immunoaffinity column for clean-up. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 7.5 ${\mu}g$/kg and 18.8 ${\mu}g$/kg, respectively. The calibration curve showed a good linearity, with correlation coefficients $r^2$ of 0.9999 in the concentration range from 20 to 500 ${\mu}g$/kg. Recoveries and Repeatabilities expressed as coefficients of variation (CV) spiked with 200 and 500 ${\mu}g$/kg were $82{\pm}2.7%$ and $87{\pm}1.3%$% in dried noodle, and $97{\pm}1.6%$ and $91{\pm}12.0%$ in ramyeon, respectively. The uncertainty sources in measurement process were identified as sample weight, final volume, and sample concentration in extraction volume as well as components such as standard stock solution, working standard solution, 5 standard solutions, calibration curve, matrix, and instrument. Deoxynivalenol concentration and expanded uncertainty in two matrixes spiked with 200 ${\mu}g$/kg and 500 ${\mu}g$/kg were estimated to be $163.8{\pm}52.1$ and $435.2{\pm}91.6\;{\mu}g$/kg for dried noodle, and $194.3{\pm}33.0$ and $453.2{\pm}91.1\;{\mu}g$/kg for ramyeon using a coverage factor of two which gives a level of statistical confidence with approximately 95%. The most influential component among uncertainty sources was the recovery of matrix, followed by calibration curve.

Developing Fire-Danger Rating Model (산림화재예측(山林火災豫測) Model의 개발(開發)을 위(爲)한 연구(硏究))

  • Han, Sang Yeol;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.80 no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 1991
  • Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.

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Analysis of CO2 Emission Intensity per Industry using the Input-Output Tables 2003 (산업연관표(2003년)를 활용한 산업별 CO2 배출 원단위 분석)

  • Park, Pil-Ju;Kim, Mann-Young;Yi, Il-Seuk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.279-309
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    • 2009
  • Greenhouse gas emissions should be precisely forecast to reduce the emissions from industrial production processes. This study calculated the direct and indirect $CO_2$ emission intensities of 401 industries using the Input-Output tables 2003 and statistical data on the amount of energy use. This study had some limitations in drawing study findings because overseas data were used given the lack of domestic data. Other limiting factors included the oil distribution problems in the oil refinery sector, re-review of carbon neutral, and insufficient consideration of waste treatment. Nonetheless, this study is very meaningful since the direct and indirect $CO_2$ emission intensities of 401 industries were calculated. Specifically, this study considered from the zero-waste perspective the effects of waste, which attract interest worldwide since coke gas and gas from the steel industry are obtained as byproducts for the first time in Korea. According to the results of the analysis of $CO_2$ emission intensity per industry, typical industries whose indirect $CO_2$ emission intensity is high include crude steel making, Remicon, steel wire rods & track rail, cast iron, and iron reinforcing rods & bar steel. These industries produce products using the raw materials produced in the industrial sector whose $CO_2$ emission intensity is high. The representative industries whose direct $CO_2$ emission intensity is high include cement, pig iron, lime & plaster products, andcoal-based compounds. These industries extract raw ore from nature and refine them into raw materials that are useful in other industries. The findings in this study can be effectively used for the following case: estimation of target $CO_2$ emission reduction level reflecting each industrial sector's characteristics, calculation of potential emission reduction of each policy to reduce $CO_2$ emissions, identification of a firm's $CO_2$ emission level, and setting of the target level of emission reduction. Moreover, the findings in this study can be utilized widely in fields such as System of integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA) and Material Flow Analysis(MFA) as the current topic of research in Korea.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters of Body Weight by Growth Periods for Hanwoo Using Animal Model (개체모형에 의한 한우의 성장단계별 체중의 유전모수 추정)

  • Choi, J.G.;Jeon, K.J.;Lee, C.W.;Na, G.J.;Lee, C.;Kim, J.B.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.667-678
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    • 2003
  • The objectives of this study were to investigate the genetic characteristics of body weight by growth periods for Hanwoo. A total of 1,736 records were used for body weight. The data for body weights were collected from 1990 to 2000 in Daekwanryong branch, National Livestock Research Institute(NLRI). Estimates of (co)variance components were obtained by derivative-free Restricted Maximum Likelihood (DF-REML). The results are summarized as follows; The means for the weights were 25.60, 79.31, 98.91, 145.40, 283.26, 392.32, 545.65kg at birth, 3, 4, 6, 12, 18, 24month postpartum, respectively. The effects of calving year-season were significant for the milk yield of cow. Heritability estimates of direct genetic effects for birth weight were 0.54(all), 0.52(female), 0.36(male) in modelⅠ, 0.45(all), 0.41(female), 0.24(male) in modelⅡ, and heritabilities estimates of direct genetic effects for 4 month(weaning) weight were 0.47(all), 0.33(female), 0.28(male) in modelⅠ, 0.38(all), 0.21(female), 0.21(male) in modelⅡ. Heritability estimates for male and female data differed from those for combined data. The estimates became smaller for the body weights at 12 month or later(0.13~0.05). The heritabilities of average daily gain were smaller than those for body weights, but showed that the similar pattern to body weights.