• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.22-32
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• 2021

To meet rapidly changing market demands, manufacturers strive to increase both of productivity and diversity at the same time. As a part of those effort, they are applying flexible manufacturing systems that produce multiple types and/or options of products at a single production line. This paper studies such flexible manufacturing system with multiple types of products, multiple Bernoulli reliability machines and dedicated buffers between them for each of product types. As one of the prevalent control policies, priority based policy is applied at each machines to select the product to be processed. To analyze such system and its performance measures exactly, Markov chain models are applied. Because it is too complex to define all relative transient and its probabilities for each state, an algorithm to update transient state probability are introduced. Based on the steady state probability, some performance measures such as production rate, WIP-based measures, blocking probability and starvation probability are derived. Some system properties are also addressed. There is a property of non-conservation of flow, which means the product ratio at the input flow is not conserved at the succeeding flows. In addition, it is also found that increased buffer capacity does not guarantee improved production rate in this system.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.331-343
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• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.26-37
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• 2020

This study intends to present a fragility analysis method suitable for concrete cable-stayed bridges by performing an analysis reflecting design criteria and material characteristics from the results of inelastic time-history analysis. In order to obtain the fragility curve of the cable-stayed bridge, the limit state of the main component of the cable-stayed bridge is determined, and the damage state is classified by comparing it with the response value based on inelastic time history analysis. The seismic fragility curve of the cable-stayed bridge was made by obtaining the probability of damage to PGA that the dynamic response of the vulnerable parts to input ground motion would exceed the limit state of each structural member. According to the pylon's fragility curve, the probability of moderate damage at 0.5g is 32% for the longitudinal direction, while 7% for the transversal direction, indicating that the probability of damage in the longitudinal direction is higher in the same PGA than in the transversal direction. The seismic fragility curve of the connections showed a very high probability of damage, meaning that damage to the connections caused by earthquakes is very sensitive compared to damage to the pylon and cables. The cable's seismic fragility curve also showed that the probability of complete damage state after moderate damage state gradually decreased, resulting in less than 30% probability of complete damage at 2.0g.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.475-481
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• 2009

The frequency and probability of deadlock are influential factors in the design of algorithms for deadlock. However, little work has been done in this area because it's not easy to analyze how factors such as the characteristics of process or resource, resource request and release patterns, or the number of process affect the occurrence of deadlock. This study was designed to reduce remarkably the number of state by adapting the model 'state (a,b)t' to represent the resource allocation state, as well as to include the effect of resource error rate and recovery rate in the system analysis. Various formulas about deadlock occurrence were resulted in this study such as the average time interval of deadlock, the probability that a process requesting a resource waits or deadlocks, and the probability that a request deadlocks in a cycle of length 2.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.34 no.2A
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• pp.85-90
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• 2009

In this paper, as an alternative to constant modulus algorithm based on MSE, maximization of the probability that equalizer output power is equal to the constant modulus of the transmitted symbols is introduced. The proposed algorithm using the gradient ascent method to the maximum probability criterion has superior convergence and steady-state MSE performance, and the error samples of the proposed algorithm exhibit more concentrated density functions in blind equalization environments. Simulation results indicate that the proposed training has a potential advantage versus MSE training for the constant modulus approach to blind equalization.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.1010-1019
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• 2004

In this paper, we represent Nakagami-m fading channel as finite-State Markov Channel (FSMC) and analyze the performance of wireless communication system with varying the fading channel condition. In FSMC model, the received signal's SNR is divided into finite intervals and these intervals are formed into Markov chain states. Each state is modeled by a BSC and the transition probability is dependent upon the physical characterization of the channel. The steady state probability and average symbol error rate of each state and transition probability are derived by numerical analysis and FSMC model is formed with these values. We found that various fading channels can be represented with FSMC by changing state transition index. In fast fading environment in which state transition index is large, the channel can be viewed as i.i.d. channel and on the contrary, in slow fading channel where state transition index is small, the channel can be represented by simple FSMC model in which transitions occur between just adjacent states. And we applied the proposed FSMC model to analyze the coding gain of random error correcting code on various fading channels via computer simulation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.444-450
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• 1997

The current ASME code for reinforced concrete containment structures are not based on probability concepts. The stochastic nature of natural hazard or accidental loads and the variations of material properties require a probabilistic approach for a rational assessment of structural safety and performance. The paper develops design load factors for the serviceability limit state of reinforced concrete containment structures. The target limit state probability is determined and the load factors are calculated by the numerical analysis. Design load factors are proposed and carried out the reliability assessments.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.58-66
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• 2016

This study aims to estimate the failure probability of concrete gravity dams for their risk analysis under flood situation. To the end, failure modes of concrete gravity dams and their limit state functions are proposed based on numerous review of domestic and international literatures on the dam failure cases and design standards. Three failure modes are proposed: overturning, sliding, and overstress. Based on the failure modes the limit state functions, the failure probability is assessed for a weir section and a non-weir section of a dam in Korea. As water level is rising from operational condition to extreme flood condition, the failure probability is found to be raised up to the warning condition, especially for overturning mode at the non-weir section. The result can be used to reduce the risk of the dam by random environmental variables under possible flood situation.