• Title/Summary/Keyword: Speculative

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The Protestant Reformation and the Formation of Modern Philosophy (종교개혁과 근대철학의 형성)

  • Lee, Tai-ha
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.126
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    • pp.321-343
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    • 2013
  • The Reformation seems to have nothing to do with modern philosophy, but in reality closely related to it. From a philosophical point of view, the Reformation had a profound effect on the formation of modern philosophy in two respects. Voluntarism, asserting the predominance of divine will over divine reason, which is the basic principle of the Reformation, allowed an arbitrary interpretation of the Bible by ignoring the tradition of the Church and emphasizing 'Sola Fide'. As a result, the severe religious disputes arose and the modern intellectuals sought a deism and natural religion as an universal religion which is expected to put an end to religious conflicts. Moreover, voluntarism changed the way of inquiring nature from the speculative to the experimental based on observation and experiment, and provided the clues of the birth of experimental philosophy (empiricism) which is the experimental inquiry of human nature. In short, the Reformation brings about the search for universal religion on the one hand, but on the other the advent of experimental philosophy. Universal religion is not a mystic religion on which the religious behaviors and practices are based but just a world view that is the basis for scientific inquiry, and it was nothing but a philosophy for science. And also the experimental philosophy was a philosophy by science in that it is a science of human nature through experiment and observation, After all, the Reformation expelled religion from the main living room of philosophy and placed science on the spot instead.

Epic Theatre Reexamined from the Viewpoint of Cognitive Science (인지과학의 관점에서 본 서사극 이론)

  • Kim, Yongsoo
    • Journal of Korean Theatre Studies Association
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    • no.49
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    • pp.133-169
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    • 2013
  • Reexamining Brecht's theoretical hypotheses in terms of cognitive science, this essay arrived at several temporary interpretations. Cognitive science implies that empathy can precede the rational understanding in Verfremdungseffekt. The spectator tends to simulate the unfamiliar incident and character and feels the consequential embodied emotion that leads to the cognitive understanding. The similar situation can be found in social gestus. According to cognitive science, gesture(social gestus) is simulated in the mirror-neuron of spectator, arousing consequently the embodied emotion that triggers the succeeding understanding. The spectator apts to experience and feel physically the moving gesture before decoding it as a social signification. Brecht's intention that attempts to reveal the duality of actor and character by eliminating the fourth wall is negated by cognitive science. According to the theory of conceptual blending, the spectator under the eliminated fourth wall mixes actor and character, and simulates this blending image so that he experiences it imaginatively. As such, another kind of illusion can be formed when a fourth wall is collapsed. Meanwhile, the critical thinking of spectator Brecht wanted can be hard to occur during the performance. It is necessary for the spectator to recollect the bygone dialogue and action in terms of social context as if he presses the pause, stopping the playback while watching a play in video. In this respect the social meaning Brecht intended can be achieved more effectively by the stop motion like tableau. It would not only give the time for the spectator to consider the implied social signification, but also make him possible to decode a semiotic meaning as if interpreting a still picture. Or it can be delivered by the dialogue that expresses the playwright's critical judgement. In this case, the subject of critical thinking is not the spectator but the author. The alternative explanation that the cognitive science suggests illuminates theoretically the reasons why Brecht's theory fails to be realized in practice. In a sense, Brecht's theory is nothing but a theoretical hypothesis. It takes the premise that the emotion hinders the rational thinking, understanding emotion and reason oppositively like Plato. This assumption is negated easily by the recent cognitive science that sees the reason as a by-product of physical experience including emotion. The rational understanding, in this sense, begins from the embodied emotion. As such the cognitive science denies the dichotomy of emotion and reason that Brecht adopted. The theoretical hypothesis of cognitive science makes us recognize again the importance of bodily experience in theatre. In theatre the spectator tends to experience physically before decoding the intellectual meaning. The spectator Brecht wanted, therefore, is far from the reality. The spectator usually experiences and reacts physically before decoding the meaning critically. Thus Brecht's intention can be realized by the embodied emotion resulted from simulation. This tentative interpretation suggests that we need to pay more attention to the empirical study of spectatorship, not remaining in a speculative study.

A Study on Acceptance and Modification in Yulgok Neo-Confucianism by Myungjae Yoon Jeung (명재 윤증의 율곡성리학의 수용과 변전(變轉))

  • Lee, Young-Ja
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.42
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    • pp.39-70
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    • 2014
  • Neo-Confucianism of Myungjae Yoon Jeung either accepted Yulgok Neo-Confucianism as it was or modified it. In this study, his Neo-Confucianism was divided into acceptance and modification in Yulgok Neo-Confucianism and examined. In the acceptance of Yulgok Neo-Confucianism, it was clarified that Neo-Confucianism of Myungjae Yoon Jeung thoroughly inherited characteristics of Yulgok Neo-Confucianism, including 'Yiguijimyo', 'Yitongguiguk' and 'Guibalyiseungildo'. However, Myungjae was not just satisfied with inheriting Yulgok Neo-Confucianism as it was, but modified and inherited the theory of Yulgok by suggesting his own original preaching. There were three original preaching of his in overall; 'emphasis on the control of Li', 'argument method on a theory of gaining knowledge by the study of things', and 'perception on moral mind, human mind and human desire'. Ultimately, it is concluded that Myungjae modified, inherited and developed Yulgok Neo-Confucianism to adjust a theory of Neo-Confucianism in a position of 'Yiguijimyo', based on 'a theory of Guibalyiseungildo' of Yulgok as a Confucian scholar of Giho school. It is consistent with his life philosophy that he avoided speculative arguments on Neo-Confucianism and pursued solid study(實工) with solid mind(實心). It is also consistent with his view of learning that he believed that theories of ancient sages were already rich that we should read them and practice their true knowledge(眞知), and making an effort on writing regardless of them was not a study of Mushil(務實). However, due to his younger students, he was classified as a scholar who emphasized the control of 'Li' the most in Yulgok school, and a new academic tie of Giho Soron was created. It is the most important significance that Neo-Confucianism of Myungjae has in that of Giho.

Why do People Play P2E (Play-to-Earn) Games?: Focusing on Outcome Expectation and Social Influence (P2E(Play-to-Earn) 게임 지속이용의도에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Moonkyoung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2022
  • With the development of blockchain technology, play-to-earn (P2E) games, one of the decentralized applications (dApps), are receiving great social attention. P2E games are positively evaluated as areas with high growth potential based on blockchain technology, and at the same time, they are negatively evaluated as speculative as people can cash P2E game items in the form of cryptocurrency. In this situation, the purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting the intention to use P2E games. Along with the discussion of hedonic system adoption, we consider the factors with perceived enjoyment, economic incentive, and social influence. In order to verify our research model, data were collected from 350 adults with P2E game experience or recognition, and a structural equation model was carried out. The analysis results find that perceived enjoyment and subjective norm have a significant positive effect on the intention to use P2E games, and economic incentive does not have a significant effect. In addition, peer influence and external influence have a significant positive effect on subjective norm. Drawing on these findings, we present several academic and practical implications for future research.

A Comparative Study of Scientific Literacy and Core Competence Discourses as Rationales for the 21st Century Science Curriculum Reform (21세기 과학 교육과정 개혁 논리로서의 과학적 소양 및 핵심 역량 담론 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Geon;Hong, Hun-Gi
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2022
  • The two most influential rationales for the 21st century science curriculum reform can be said to be core competence and scientific literacy. However, the relationship between the two has not been scrutinized but remained speculative - and this has made the harmonization of the general guideline and subject-matter curriculum difficult in Korean national curriculum system. This study compares the two discourses to derive implications for future science curriculum development. This study took a literature research approach. In chapter II, national curriculum or standards, position papers, and research articles were reviewed to delineate the historical development of the discourses. In chapter III and IV, the intersections of those two discourses are delineated. In chapter III, the commonalities of the two discourses are explicated with regard to crisis rhetoric, multi-faceted meanings (individual, community, and global aspects), organization of subject-matter content and teaching and learning method, and the role of high-stake exams. In chapter IV, their respective strengths and weaknesses are juxtaposed. In chapter V, it is suggested that understanding scientific literacy and core competence discourses to have a family resemblance as 21st century science curriculum reform rationale, after Wittgenstein and Kuhn. Finally, the ways to resolve the conflict between the two ideas from the general guideline and subject-matter curriculum over crisis rhetoric were explored.

Risk Aversion in Forward Foreign Currency Markets (선도환시장(先渡換市場)에서의 위험회피도(危險回避度)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jang, Ik-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.179-197
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    • 1991
  • 선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$$P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$$f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.

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Future Development of Genetics and the Broiler (BROILER 육종기술의 전망)

  • 오봉국
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 1981
  • In trying to predict the effect of genetics on the broiler in the year 2000, this is a relatively short period of time as far as broiler genetics in concerned. Modern broiler genetics started around 1945 and tremendous gains when made in past 35 years. Futher improvements on broiler will depend on the evolution and revolution: 1. Evolution: (1) Growth rate has been made 4-5% per year. (2) Feed conversion has improved approximately 1% per year. (3) Abdominal fat is becoming a major complaint in broiler. (4) Because of the changing life-style, broiler meat sales in the future will be more and more in cut-up form. (5) Breeding for stress resistance and selection for docile temperament can be important in order to funker improve fled efficiency. (6) In female parent stock, reproduction characteristics are in many can negatively correlated with the desired broiler traits. (7) Egg production and hatchability in moot commercial parent nod m at a fairly high level. (8) In male parent stock, the heavier and mon super-meat-type male lines are desired to Product better broilers. 2. Revolution: Trying to forecast revolutionary change in broiler genetics is highly speculative, as sudden change are aften unpredictable. (1) Species hybridization, such as a turkey-chicken cross (2) Biochemical tools, such as blood typing. (3) Mutation breeding by radiation or chemical mutagentia. (4) Broiler breeding would be to change the phenotypic appearance by single gene, such as naked, wingless. (5) Changes in production techniques. such as growing in cage or growing in filtered air positive pressure houses.

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A Funding Source Decision on Corporate Bond - Private Placements vs Public Bond - (기업의 회사채 조달방법 선택에 관한 연구 - 사모사채와 공모사채 발행을 중심으로 -)

  • An, Seung-Cheol;Lee, Sang-Whi;Jang, Seung-Wook
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.99-123
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    • 2004
  • We focus in this study on incremental financing decisions and estimate a logit model for the probability a firm will choose a private placement over a public bond issue. We hypothesize that information asymmetry, financial risk, agent cost, and proprietary information may affect a firm's choice between public debt and private placements. We find that as the size of firm increases, the probability of choosing a private placement declines significantly. The age of the firm, however, is not a significant factor affecting the firm's choice between public and privately-placed bond. The coefficients on the firm's leverage and non-investment grade dummy are significantly positive, meaning firms with high financial risk and credit risk select private placements. The findings regarding agency-related variables, PER and Tobin's Q, are somewhat complex. We find significant evidence that firms with high PER prefer private placements to public bonds, suggesting that borrowers with options to engage in asset substitution or underinvestment are more likely to choose private placements. The coefficient of Tobin's Q is negative, but not significant, which weakly support the hold-up hypothesis. When we construct an interaction term on the Tobin's Q with a non-investment rating dummy, however, the Tobin's Q interaction term becomes positive and significant. Thus, high Tobin's Q firms with a speculative rating are significantly more likely to choose a private placement, regardless of the potential hold-up problems. The ratio of R&D to sales, proxy for proprietary information, is positively significant. This result can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a role for proprietary information in the debt sourcing decision process for these firms.

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The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Understanding Public Opinion by Analyzing Twitter Posts Related to Real Estate Policy (부동산 정책 관련 트위터 게시물 분석을 통한 대중 여론 이해)

  • Kim, Kyuli;Oh, Chanhee;Zhu, Yongjun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.47-72
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to understand the trends of subjects related to real estate policies and public's emotional opinion on the policies. Two keywords related to real estate policies such as "real estate policy" and "real estate measure" were used to collect tweets created from February 25, 2008 to August 31, 2021. A total of 91,740 tweets were collected and we applied sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to the final preprocessed and categorized data of 18,925 tweets. Sentiment analysis and dynamic topic model analysis were conducted for a total of 18,925 posts after preprocessing data and categorizing them into supply, real estate tax, interest rate, and population variance. Keywords of each category are as follows: the supply categories (rental housing, greenbelt, newlyweds, homeless, supply, reconstruction, sale), real estate tax categories (comprehensive real estate tax, acquisition tax, holding tax, multiple homeowners, speculation), interest rate categories (interest rate), and population variance categories (Sejong, new city). The results of the sentiment analysis showed that one person posted on average one or two positive tweets whereas in the case of negative and neutral tweets, one person posted two or three. In addition, we found that part of people have both positive as well as negative and neutral opinions towards real estate policies. As the results of dynamic topic modeling analysis, negative reactions to real estate speculative forces and unearned income were identified as major negative topics and as for positive topics, expectation on increasing supply of housing and benefits for homeless people who purchase houses were identified. Unlike previous studies, which focused on changes and evaluations of specific real estate policies, this study has academic significance in that it collected posts from Twitter, one of the social media platforms, used emotional analysis, dynamic topic modeling analysis, and identified potential topics and trends of real estate policy over time. The results of the study can help create new policies that take public opinion on real estate policies into consideration.