• Title/Summary/Keyword: Species distribution model

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Tree species migration to north and expansion in their habitat under future climate: an analysis of eight tree species Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

  • Muhammad Abdullah Durrani;Rohma Raza;Muhammad Shakil;Shakeel Sabir;Muhammad Danish
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.96-109
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    • 2024
  • Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

A Comparative Study on Species Richness and Land Suitability Assessment - Focused on city in Boryeong - (종풍부도와 세분화된 관리지역 비교 연구 - 보령시를 대상으로 -)

  • Shin, Manseok;Jang, Raeik;Seo, Changwan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2015
  • The purposes of this study are to apply species distribution modeling in urban management planning for habitat conservation in non-urban area and to provide a detailed classification method for management zone. To achieve these objectives, Species Distribution Model was used to generate species richness and then to compare with the results from land suitability assessment. 59 species distribution models were developed by Maxent. This study used 15 model variables (5 topographical variables, 4 vegetation variables, and 6 distance variables) for Maxent models. Then species richness was created by sum of predicted species distributions. Land suitability assessment was conducted with criteria from type I of "Guidelines for land suitability assessment". After acquiring evaluation values from species richness and land suitability assessment, the results from these two models were compared according to the five grades of classification. The areas with the identical grade in Species richness and land suitability assessment are categorized and then compared each other. The comparison results are Grade1 10.92%, Grade2 37.10%, Grade3 34.56%, Grade4 20.89% and Grade5 1.73%. Grade1 and Grade5 showed the lowest agreement rate. Namely, development or conservation grade showed high disagreement between two assessment system. Therefore, the areas located between urban, agriculture, forest, and reserve have a tendency to change easily by development plans. Even though management areas are not the core area of reserve, it is important to provide a venue for species habitat and eco-corridor to protect and improve biodiversity in terms of landscape ecology. Consequently, adoption of species richness in three levels of management area classification such as conservation, production, planning should be considered in urban management plan.

Habitat Analysis of Hyla suweonensis in the Breeding Season Using Species Distribution Modeling (종분포모형을 이용한 수원청개구리의 번식기 서식지 분석)

  • Song, Wonkyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2015
  • Hyla suweonensis is an endemic species and is designated as the only endangered species I among amphibians in 2012 by the Ministry of Environment, however studies about its habitat are lacking. This study was carried out to analyze habitat of H. suweonensis based on the spatial information using Maxent (Maximum entropy model as a species distribution model. We detected 45 present points until 2013 and 10 environmental variables by literature review for the model. The results showed that $429km^2$ (0.95%) of the study area, which was about 7.75% of the total agricultural area, was high possible habitats of H. suweonensis. The habitat of H. suweonensis was analyzed by over $1km^2$ rice paddy fields that were lower elevations, flat slopes, and not fragmented. The distance from forests and rivers was identified as a factor that affects its habitat possibilities. In order to conserve H. suweonensis, a large area of rice paddy fields should be preserved, and especially the area around forests and rivers would be required more intensive management. In addition, to compensate for degraded habitats of H. suweonensis in urban areas like as Suwon city, considering integrated watershed management strategy could be effective in the perspective of ecological habitat network of H. suweonensis.

Two-dimensional continuum modelling of an inductively coupled plasma reactor

  • Kim, Dong-Ho;Shung, Won-Young;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.128-133
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    • 2000
  • Numerical analysis of the transport phenomena in an inductively coupled plasma reactor was conducted with two-dimensional axisymmetric model including the electromagnetic field model, electron and species density models. The spatial distribution of the charged species in the ion flux to the wafer have been calculated to examine the influence of the process conditions including antenna and reactor geometry. The antenna radius had a significant influence on the plasma state and axial ion flux distribution.

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Modeling the Natural Occurrence of Selected Dipterocarp Genera in Sarawak, Borneo

  • Teo, Stephen;Phua, Mui-How
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2012
  • Dipterocarps or Dipterocarpaceae is a commercially important timber producing and dominant keystone tree family in the rain forests of Borneo. Borneo's landscape is changing at an unprecedented rate in recent years which affects this important biodiversity. This paper attempts to model the natural occurrence (distribution including those areas with natural forests before being converted to other land uses as opposed to current distribution) of dipterocarp species in Sarawak which is important for forest biodiversity conservation and management. Local modeling method of Inverse Distance Weighting was compared with commonly used statistical method (Binary Logistic Regression) to build the best natural distribution models for three genera (12 species) of dipterocarps. Database of species occurrence data and pseudoabsence data were constructed and divided into two halves for model building and validation. For logistic regression modeling, climatic, topographical and edaphic parameters were used. Proxy variables were used to represent the parameters which were highly (p>0.75) correlated to avoid over-fitting. The results show that Inverse Distance Weighting produced the best and consistent prediction with an average accuracy of over 80%. This study demonstrates that local interpolation method can be used for the modeling of natural distribution of dipterocarp species. The Inverse Distance Weighted was proven a better method and the possible reasons are discussed.

Riparian Connectivity Assessment Using Species Distribution Model of Fish Assembly (어류군집의 종분포모형을 이용한 수변지역 연결성 평가)

  • Jeong, Seung Gyu;Lee, Dong Kun;Ryu, Ji Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2015
  • River corridors facilitate dispersal and movement and prevent local extinction of species. As a result of stream restoration projects, which include installation of waterfront and flood control structures, the number of animals, which rely on river corridor, is decreasing. For the study, factors affecting fish assembly were extracted by a species distribution model with the fish data collected from the Seom River in Hoengseong County and City of Wonju, Ganwon Province, Korea between March to October 2013. The riparian connectivity was assessed using species richness and rarity. According to result of the field survey, there were 38 species and 7,061 individuals for fish. The analysis suggests the following. Firstly, factors affecting fish richness in species distribution model results are shown to be velocity, riffle, riparian width, and water width. The accuracy of the model proves to be suitable with the correlation coefficient of 0.83 and MAPE of 19.2%. Secondly, the low rarity area is shown to be straight streams in Jeon river near to Hongseong County and the high rarity area to be streams with large width, existing alluvial area at channel junction between Jeon river and Seom river. Thirdly, according to connectivity results, areas where weirs are installed or riparian buffer area is removed showed low connectivity. The areas where farmland near riparian and forest areas showed high connectivity. The results of this study can be utilized to improve current facilities and enhance connectivity as a restoration guide.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

  • SUNG, Sunyong;KWON, Yong-Su;LEE, Dong Kun;CHO, Youngho
    • Entomological Research
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2018
  • The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

Comparison of Species Distribution Models According to Location Data (위치자료의 종류에 따른 생물종 분포모형 비교 연구)

  • Seo, Chang-Wan;Park, Yu-Ri;Choi, Yun-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2008
  • We need to use the strength of each Species Distribution Model(SDM) because presence location data were only collected due to time and economic limitations in Korea. This study investigated and compared GAM(Generalized Additive Model) which is one of presence-absence models with Maxent(Maximum Entropy Model) which is one of presence only models according to location data(presence/absence data). The target species was Fisher(Martes pennanti) which is an endangered species in California, USA. We implemented environmental data such as topography, climate and vegetation, and applied models to sub-regions and study area. The results of this study were as follows. Firstly, GAM which used real presence and absence data was better than GAM which used pseudo-absence data and Maxent which used presence-only data. Secondly, Maxent was better than GAM when presence-only data were used. Lastly, each model which applied to different regions didn't predict other area well due to the difference of habitat environment and over-predicted outside of study area. We need to select an optimal model to predict a suitable habitat according to the type and distribution of location data.

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GLOBAL STABILITY OF SOLUTIONS OF AN ELECTROCHEMISTRY MODEL WITH A SINGLE REACTION

  • Kim, Eu-Hee
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 1999
  • In this paper an electrochemistry model which consists of three charged species is considered. A dissociation-association reaction is allowed to take place between these species. The species of ions diffuse owing to concentration gradients and migrate because of electric forces. We prove that any initial distribution of species concentrations will settle down to the unique steady state as time becomes large.

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The Relationship between Local Distribution and Abundance of Butterflies and Weather Factors

  • Choi, Sei-Woong
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.199-202
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    • 2003
  • According to the energy hypothesis, the energy input per unit area primarily determines species richness in regions of roughly equal area. Some energy-related ecological research included identification of major climatic variables to determine regional species richness. In this study, the local butterfly species richness was examined to find out whether weather variables affected the local distribution or abundance of butterfly populations. Butterfly monitoring data from May 2001 to April 2002 taken at Mt. Yudal, Mokpo, in the southwestern part of Korea, and six weather variables (monthly mean values of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, wind speed, air pressure, and sunlight) were analyzed. Multiple regression analysis showed that only temperature explained 80% and 70% of the variability of log-transformed number of species and individuals, respectively, indicating that temperature played an important role in local species richness. Furthermore, global warming could affect the abundance and distribution of butterflies regionally as well as locally.