• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spatio-Temporal Analysis

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How can the post-war reconstruction project be carried out in a stable manner? - terrorism prediction using a Bayesian hierarchical model (전후 재건사업을 안정적으로 진행하려면? - 베이지안 계층모형을 이용한 테러 예측)

  • Eom, Seunghyun;Jang, Woncheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.603-617
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    • 2022
  • Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States declared war on terror and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, winning quickly. However, interest in analyzing terrorist activities has developed as a result of a significant amount of time being spent on the post-war stabilization effort, which failed to minimize the number of terrorist activities that occurred later. Based on terrorist data from 2003 to 2010, this study utilized a Bayesian hierarchical model to forecast the terrorist threat in 2011. The model depicts spatiotemporal dependence with predictors such as population and religion by autonomous district. The military commander in charge of the region can utilize the forecast value based on the our model to prevent terrorism by deploying forces efficiently.

A Heuristic Method of In-situ Drought Using Mass Media Information

  • Lee, Jiwan;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.168-168
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    • 2020
  • This study is to evaluate the drought-related bigdata characteristics published from South Korean by developing crawler. The 5 years (2013 ~ 2017) drought-related posted articles were collected from Korean internet search engine 'NAVER' which contains 13 main and 81 local daily newspapers. During the 5 years period, total 40,219 news articles including 'drought' word were found using crawler. To filter the homonyms liken drought to soccer goal drought in sports, money drought economics, and policy drought in politics often used in South Korea, the quality control was processed and 47.8 % articles were filtered. After, the 20,999 (52.2 %) drought news articles of this study were classified into four categories of water deficit (WD), water security and support (WSS), economic damage and impact (EDI), and environmental and sanitation impact (ESI) with 27, 15, 13, and 18 drought-related keywords in each category. The WD, WSS, EDI, and ESI occupied 41.4 %, 34.5 %, 14.8 %, and 9.3 % respectively. The drought articles were mostly posted in June 2015 and June 2017 with 22.7 % (15,097) and 15.9 % (10,619) respectively. The drought news articles were spatiotemporally compared with SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and RDI (Reservoir Drought Index) were calculated. They were classified into administration boundaries of 8 main cities and 9 provinces in South Korea because the drought response works based on local government unit. The space-time clustering between news articles (WD, WSS, EDI, and ESI) and indices (SPI and RDI) were tried how much they have correlation each other. The spatiotemporal clusters detection was applied using SaTScan software (Kulldorff, 2015). The retrospective and prospective cluster analyses were conducted for past and present time to understand how much they are intensive in clusters. The news articles of WD, WSS and EDI had strong clusters in provinces, and ESI in cities.

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Application of SAD Curves in Assessing Climate-change Impacts on Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Drought Events (극한가뭄의 시공간적 특성에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위한 SAD 곡선의 적용)

  • Kim, Hosung;Park, Jinhyeog;Yoon, Jaeyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6B
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    • pp.561-569
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the impact of climate change on extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate. The depth-area-duration analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future monthly precipitation time series is based on a KMA regional climate model which has a $27km{\times}27km$ spatial resolution, and the drought severity is computed using the standardized precipitation index. As a result, agricultural drought risk is likely to increase especially in short duration, while hydrologic drought risk will greatly increase in all durations. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

A Study on the Correlation between the Harmful Cyanobacterial Density and Phycocyanin Concentration at Recreational Sites in Nakdong River (낙동강 친수활동구간 유해 남조류 분포와 피코시아닌(Phycocyanin) 농도 상관성에 관한 연구)

  • Hyo-Jin Kim;Min-Kyeong Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.451-464
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    • 2023
  • Harmful cyanobacterial monitoring is time-consuming and requires skilled professionals. Recently, Phycocyanin, the accessory pigment unique to freshwater cyanobacteria, has been proposed as an indicator for the presence of cyanobacteria, with the advantage of rapid and simple measurement. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the correlation between the harmful cyanobacterial cell density and the concentration of phycocyanin and to consider how to use the real-time water quality monitoring system for algae bloom monitoring. In the downstream of the Nakdong River, Microcystis spp. showed maximum cell density (99 %) in harmful cyanobacteria (four target genera). A strong correlation between phycocyanin(measured in the laboratory) concentrations and harmful cyanobacterial cell density was observed (r = 0.90, p < 0.001), while a weaker relationship (r = 0.65, p < 0.001) resulted between chlorophyll a concentration and harmful cyanobacterial cell density. As a result of comparing the phycocyanin concentration (measured in submersible fluorescence sensor) and harmful cyanobacterial cell density, the error range increased as the number of cyanobacteria cells increased. Before opening the estuary bank, the diurnal variations of phycocyanin concentrations did not mix by depth, and in the case of the surface layer, a pattern of increase and decrease over time was shown. This study is the result of analysis when Microcystis spp. is dominant in downstream of Nakdong River in summer, therefore the correlation between the harmful cyanobacteria density and phycocyanin concentrations should be more generalized through spatio-temporal expansion.

Trends in Regional Disparity in Cardiovascular Mortality in Korea, 1983-2019

  • Eunji Kim;Jongmin Baek;Min Kim;Hokyou Lee;Jang-Whan Bae;Hyeon Chang Kim
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.829-843
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    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives: Despite remarkable reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, the burden has remained the leading cause of death. Since little research has focused on regional disparity in CVD mortality, this study aims to investigate its spatiotemporal trends in Korea from 1983 to 2019. Methods: Using the causes of death statistics in Korea, we analyzed the geographic variation in deaths from CVDs from 1983 to 2019. The sex and age-standardized mortality rate was calculated according to the 17 administrative regions. The analyses include all diseases of the circulatory system (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes, I00-I99), along with the following 6 subcategories which were not mutually exclusive: total heart disease (I00-I13 and I20-I51), hypertensive heart disease (I10-I13), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25), myocardial infarction (I21-I23), heart failure (I50), and cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69). Results: Overall, heart failure death rate increased across all regions, and other CVD death rates showed a decreasing trend. Regional disparity in mortality was substantial in the early 1980s but converged over time. In all types of cardiovascular mortality, Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam remained the highest, although they showed a downward trend like other regions. Jeju continued to have a relatively low CVD mortality rate. Conclusions: The regional disparity substantially decreased compared to the 1980s. However, the relatively high burden of CVD mortality in the southeastern region has not been fully resolved.

Study on Geostatistical Method for an Effectiveness Analysis on Carbon Reduction Policy - Focusing on the Carbon Point System (탄소저감정책 효과분석을 위한 공간통계기법 적용방안 연구 - 탄소포인트제도를 대상으로 -)

  • Hwang, Hae-Seong;Joo, Yong-Jin;Koh, June-Hwan
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • Carbon Point system is Climate Change Action Program by providing incentives in proportion to voluntary reduction of energy consumption such as electricity, gas and water for houses, commercial facilities. So far, existing researches have been limited to construction of GHG(Green House Gas) Inventory and have little attention to empirical impact analysis on carbon reduction policy regarding the residential section. Therefore, this paper is intended to provide convincing findings of impact analysis on carbon reduction, revolving around the carbon point system. For this, we firstly calculated the carbon emission by using electricity and gas usage data in household targeting to Seongbuk-Gu. Carrying out IPA and spatio-temporal analysis. Then, we are capable of visualizing spatial patterns from 2007 to 2009 as a macro analysis. Following that, we explored the effect on carbon point system through Ex ante-Ex post Analysis by paired t-test. To conclude, we can spatially identify the distribution with a significant difference between carbon emissions according to energy use as a micro analysis by Hot Spot to Analysis on point entities. It is to be hoped that this method will be utilized to establish various policies and to evaluate the effect of reduction of GHG.

On Using Near-surface Remote Sensing Observation for Evaluation Gross Primary Productivity and Net Ecosystem CO2 Partitioning (근거리 원격탐사 기법을 이용한 총일차생산량 추정 및 순생태계 CO2 교환량 배분의 정확도 평가에 관하여)

  • Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Cho, Sungsik;Sohn, Seungwon;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Su-Jin;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Mingu;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 2021
  • Remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) are empirically related with gross primary productivity (GPP) in various spatio-temporal scales. The uncertainties in GPP-VI relationship increase with temporal resolution. Uncertainty also exists in the eddy covariance (EC)-based estimation of GPP, arising from the partitioning of the measured net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). For two forests and two agricultural sites, we correlated the EC-derived GPP in various time scales with three different near-surface remotely sensed VIs: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), (2) enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and (3) near infrared reflectance from vegetation (NIRv) along with NIRvP (i.e., NIRv multiplied by photosynthetically active radiation, PAR). Among the compared VIs, NIRvP showed highest correlation with half-hourly and monthly GPP at all sites. The NIRvP was used to test the reliability of GPP derived by two different NEE partitioning methods: (1) original KoFlux methods (GPPOri) and (2) machine-learning based method (GPPANN). GPPANN showed higher correlation with NIRvP at half-hourly time scale, but there was no difference at daily time scale. The NIRvP-GPP correlation was lower under clear sky conditions due to co-limitation of GPP by other environmental conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. However, under cloudy conditions when photosynthesis is mainly limited by radiation, the use of NIRvP was more promising to test the credibility of NEE partitioning methods. Despite the necessity of further analyses, the results suggest that NIRvP can be used as the proxy of GPP at high temporal-scale. However, for the VIs-based GPP estimation with high temporal resolution to be meaningful, complex systems-based analysis methods (related to systems thinking and self-organization that goes beyond the empirical VIs-GPP relationship) should be developed.

Spatio- and temporal patterns of benthic environment and macrobenthos community on subtidal soft-bottom in Chonsu Bay, Korea (천수만 조하대 연성저질의 저서환경과 저서동물 군집의 시${\cdot}$공간적 양상)

  • PARK Heung-Sik;LIM Hyun-Sig;HONG Jae-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.262-271
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    • 2000
  • This study was carried out to clarify the spatial and temporal patterns of benthic environments and macrobenthos on the subtidal soft-bottom in Chonsu Bay. Seasonal surface water temperature was similar to the bottom layer, but freshwater discharges into the outlets dereased the surface salinity around the dyke in summer. Bottom dissolved oxygen was decreased deeply around the dyke and created the de-oxygenated layer during summer. Sediment grain size was consisted of finer at the neighboring of the dyke than the mouth of the bay. Organic matters including the sediment were decreased at the mouth of the bay. A total of 311 species ($769\;ind./m^2$) were identified. Polychaetes were the most abundant faunal group in the number of species and densities. The number of species revealed the spatial patterns that it was higher in the mouth of the bay, and their densities showed seasonal changes by mass recruitment occurred at the most of the area in summer, At this time, opportunistic species, Lumbrineris iongifolia and Theora fragilis, were also recruited massively. Chonsu Bay were classified into five station groups by the cluster analysis. The dominant species around the dyke were composed to opportunistic species, those in middle area were Sternaspis scutata, Paraplionospio pinnata, and those in the mouth of the bay were Mediomastus californiensis, Nephtys polybranchia. Seasonal fluctuations and spatial difference of environments seem to have influenced to the species compositions and affected to the stability of benthic ecosystems spatial-temporally In Chonsu nay.

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Water Depth Change Caused by Artificial Structures in Geum River Estuary: Spatio-Temporal Evaluation Based on GIS (금강하구에서 인공 구조물에 의한 수심 변화 : GIS 기반의 시.공간 평가)

  • Lee, Hyun-Hee;Um, Jung-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.1 s.118
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2007
  • This paper examines the spatial and temporal variability in the water depth caused by artificial structures in Geum Estuary of South Korea. Water depth data set extracted from marine maps of 1979, 1990, 1996 and 2004 were used in a GIS to derive volumetric estimates of gains and losses of sedimentary material. Artificial structures caused above 2m in water depth to be shallow between 1979 and 2002 in the estuary system, particularly through disturbance of a natural transport in suspended sediment concentrations. The mutt significant change in suspended sediment transport were observed in area affected by embankment for fresh water, inducing the water depth shallower than before in almost 80% of the area. This was probably because of an continuous abundant mud supply from coastal river oven after blocking the fresh water. The spatial analysis made it possible to identify area wide patterns of water depth change subject to many different type of artificial structures, which tanner be acquired by traditional field sampling. It is anticipated thai this research could be used as a valuable reference to confirm the outputs from past field researches for sedimental process in more visual and quantitative manner.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Estuarine Wetlands Related to Watershed Characteristics in the Han River Estuary (유역특성에 따른 한강하구 습지의 공간분포 및 변화분석)

  • Rho, Paik-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.3 s.120
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    • pp.344-354
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    • 2007
  • Estuarine wetlands for 33 watersheds in the Han River estuary were delineated on topographic maps from the 1910s, 1970s, and 2000s. Then, these data were used to address the issue of spatial distribution and temporal variation. Watershed characteristics such as drainage density, location, watershed size, slope, and elevation were identified for each watershed to determine the relationship between watershed characteristics and spatial distribution of estuarine wetlands. The analysis of estuarine wetlands indicated that wetlands in the estuary had declined gradually between the 1910s and the 1970s, although most wetlands were lost since the 1970s mainly caused by the large development projects related to urban expansion in metropolitan Seoul. The sediment composition and formation processes of the wetlands differed with watershed location; mud flats dominate in the lower part of the estuary, and relatively more sandy and emergent-plant wetlands occur near the main channel and tributaries of the Han River. Relatively more estuary wetlands occur in large watersheds, which have high slopes and low elevations. Estuarine wetlands have been lost dramatically in the densely populated watershed regions (i.e., Han River Seoul, Han River Goyang, West Han River), while relatively more wetlands have remained in undeveloped regions, including the Lower Imjin River and Lower Han River. In particular, anthropogenic disturbance has played an important role in the loss of wetland through the conversion of wetland into agricultural and developed land.