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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2022.35.5.603

How can the post-war reconstruction project be carried out in a stable manner? - terrorism prediction using a Bayesian hierarchical model  

Eom, Seunghyun (TRADOC, Republic of Korea Army)
Jang, Woncheol (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.35, no.5, 2022 , pp. 603-617 More about this Journal
Abstract
Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States declared war on terror and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, winning quickly. However, interest in analyzing terrorist activities has developed as a result of a significant amount of time being spent on the post-war stabilization effort, which failed to minimize the number of terrorist activities that occurred later. Based on terrorist data from 2003 to 2010, this study utilized a Bayesian hierarchical model to forecast the terrorist threat in 2011. The model depicts spatiotemporal dependence with predictors such as population and religion by autonomous district. The military commander in charge of the region can utilize the forecast value based on the our model to prevent terrorism by deploying forces efficiently.
Keywords
spatio-temporal data analysis; Bayesian hierarchical model; terror activity prediction;
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