• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.55-63
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• 2012

Soil properties are not random values which is represented by mean and standard deviation but show spatial correlation. Especially, soils are highly variable in their properties and rarely homogeneous. Thus, the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic analysis results is decreased when using only one random variable as design parameter. In this paper, to consider spatial variability of soil property, one-dimensional random fields of coefficient of consolidation ($C_v$) were generated based on a Karhunen-Loeve expansion. A Latin hypercube Monte Calro simulation coupled with finite difference method for Terzaghi's one dimensional consolidation theory was then used to probabilistic analysis. The results show that the failure probability is smaller when consider spatial variability of $C_v$ than not considered and the failure probability increased when the autocorrelation distance increased. Thus, the uncertainty of soil can be overestimated when spatial variability of soil property is not considered, and therefore, to perform a more accurate probabilistic analysis, spatial variability of soil property needed to be considered.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2018

This study implemented the rainfall-runoff analysis of the Mekong River basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The runoff analysis was simulated for 2000~2007, and 11 parameters were calibrated using the SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-version 2) algorithm of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program). As a result of analyzing optimal parameters and sensitivity analysis for 6 cases, the parameter ALPHA_BF was found to be the most sensitive. The reproducibility of the rainfall-runoff results decreased with increasing number of stations used for parameter calibration. The rainfall-runoff simulation results of Case 6 showed that the RMSE of Nong Khai and Kratie stations were 0.97 and 0.9, respectively, and the runoff patterns were relatively accurately simulated. The runoff patterns of Mukdahan and Khong Chaim stations were underestimated during the flood season from 2004 to 2005 but it was acceptable in terms of the overall runoff pattern. These results suggest that the combination of SWAT and SWAT-CUP models is applicable to very large watersheds such as the Mekong for rainfall-runoff simulation, but further studies are needed to reduce the range of modeling uncertainty.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.877-893
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• 2011

Response spectra of earthquake ground motions are important in the earthquake-resistant design and reliability analysis of structures. The formulation of the response spectrum in the frequency domain efficiently computes and evaluates the stochastic response spectrum. The frequency information of the excitation can be described using different functional forms. The shapes of the calculated response spectra of the excitation show strong magnitude and site dependency, but weak distance dependency. In this paper, to compare the effect of the earthquake ground motion variables, the contribution of these sources of variability to the response spectrum's uncertainty is calculated by using a stochastic analysis. The analytical results show that earthquake source factors and soil condition variables are the main sources of uncertainty in the response spectra, while path variables, such as distance, anelastic attenuation and upper crust attenuation, have relatively little effect. The presented formulation of dynamic structural response in frequency domain based only on the frequency information of the excitation can provide an important basis for the structural analysis in some location that lacks strong motion records.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.14-22
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• 1999

Slug and pumping tests have been widely used to obtain hydraulic parameter estimates in the field. Although a variety of sources of error and uncertainty can be involved in the course of the test performance and data analysis, serious considerations on these sources are often neglected. In this study these various sources of error and uncertainty are analyzed or discussed using repeated slug and pumping test data and some guide lines are suggested to improve quality of parameter estimates from the slug and pumping tests.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.699-702
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• 2008

In this study, it has observed the precipitation and stage data at each point every ten minutes for gaining the sustainable, reliable and high-quality hydrological data through operating the experimental watershed in mountainous areas such as Gyecheon located in the upstream of Seom river that is the tributary of Nam-Han river. And it has regularly surveyed the runoff and verified the reliability of data using the uncertainty analysis at the gaging station. So, this study has developed the stage-discharge curve(rating curve) and these results are expected to be used as fundamental data for analyzing the circulation of water through surveying evapotranspiration, soil moisture and level of groundwater in watershed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 1987.07a
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• pp.123-137
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• 1987

The groundwater hydrographs due to the recharge of water table aquifer resulting from rainfall are simulated by relating the existing linearized method, which is originally the non-linear equation suggested by Boussinesq, to the basin charcteristics. To thes end, the recharge curve is assumed as the skewed distribution of sine curve, and the parameters contained in the equation are determined from the geomorphologic and soil maps. The whole drainage area is divied in order to consider the spatial variation of parameters. The obtained parameters are tried for several cases with different values given arbitrarily to study the aspects of hydrographs according to their variation. This procedures are applied to the natural basin of Bocheong watershed(area:475.5$\textrm{km}^2$) in Korea. As a result, it is shown that considerable uncertainty is expressed for the results obtained with the given values of parameters. Thus, such uncertainty should be precluded to a certain extent by examining and observing the physical characteristics as much as possible for the determination of groundwater flows.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2003.03a
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• pp.157-164
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• 2003

A simulation-based approach that can be used to systematically model the uncertainties of seismic loading and geotechnical property is presented in the context of reliability analysis of slope stability. The uncertainty of seismic loading is studied by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions, and by using them in subsequent response analyses. The stochastic nature of spatially varying material properties and also the uncertainty arising from insufficient information are treated in the framework of random fields. The simulation-based analyses indicate that in a seismically less active region, a moderate variability in soil properties has a relatively large effect as much as characterization of earthquake hazard on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.10
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• pp.5-16
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• 2015

Considering the conversion of the Korea Construction Standards to Limit State Design (LSD), we analyzed the resistance bias factor for pullout resistance, as a part of the development of the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) for soil nailing; very few studies have been conducted on soil nailing. In order to reflect the local characteristics of soil nailing, such as the design and construction level, we collected statistics on pullout tests conducted on slopes and excavation construction sites around the country. In this study a database was built based on the geotechnical properties, soil nailing specifications, and pullout test results. The resistance bias factors are calculated to determine the resistance factor of the pullout resistance for gravity and pressurized grouting method, which are the most commonly used methods in Korea; moreover, we have relatively sufficient data on these methods. We found the resistance bias factors to be 1.144 and 1.325, which are relatively conservative values for predicting the actual ultimate pullout resistance. It showed that our designs are safer than those found in a research case in the United States (NCHRP Report); however, there was an uncertainty, $COV_R$, of 0.27-0.43 in the pullout resistance, which is relatively high. In addition, the pressurized grouting method has a greater margin of safety than the gravity grouting method, and the actual ultimate pullout resistance determined using the pressurized grouting method has low uncertainty.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.53-73
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• 2013

Prediction of prestressed concrete girder integral abutment bridge (IAB) load effect requires understanding of the inherent uncertainties as it relates to thermal loading, time-dependent effects, bridge material properties and soil properties. In addition, complex inelastic and hysteretic behavior must be considered over an extended, 75-year bridge life. The present study establishes IAB displacement and internal force statistics based on available material property and soil property statistical models and Monte Carlo simulations. Numerical models within the simulation were developed to evaluate the 75-year bridge displacements and internal forces based on 2D numerical models that were calibrated against four field monitored IABs. The considered input uncertainties include both resistance and load variables. Material variables are: (1) concrete elastic modulus; (2) backfill stiffness; and (3) lateral pile soil stiffness. Thermal, time dependent, and soil loading variables are: (1) superstructure temperature fluctuation; (2) superstructure concrete thermal expansion coefficient; (3) superstructure temperature gradient; (4) concrete creep and shrinkage; (5) bridge construction timeline; and (6) backfill pressure on backwall and abutment. IAB displacement and internal force statistics were established for: (1) bridge axial force; (2) bridge bending moment; (3) pile lateral force; (4) pile moment; (5) pile head/abutment displacement; (6) compressive stress at the top fiber at the mid-span of the exterior span; and (7) tensile stress at the bottom fiber at the mid-span of the exterior span. These established IAB displacement and internal force statistics provide a basis for future reliability-based design criteria development.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2005.03a
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• pp.129-136
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• 2005

The deterministic analysis method has generally used to evaluate the slope stability and it evaluates the slope stability with decision value that is a representative value of design variables. However, one of disadvantages in the deterministic approach is there is not able to consider the uncertainty of soil strength properties, even though it is the biggest influential parameter of the slope stability. On the other hand, the limit state design(LSD) can take a consideration of uncertainties and computes both the reliability index and the probability of failure. LSD method is capable of overcoming the disadvantages of deterministic method and evaluating the slope stability more reliably. In this study, both the mean value and standard deviation of the internal land's representative soil strength properties applied to process the LSD method. The major purpose of this study is to gauge the general applicability of the limit state design in soil slope and to weigh the comparative validity of the proposed partial safety factor. In order to reach the aim of this study, the partial safety factor and resistance factor which totally satisfied the slope's overall safety factor were calculated by the load and resistance safety factor design (LRFD).