• 제목/요약/키워드: Small Firm Effect

검색결과 208건 처리시간 0.027초

우수디자인제품 선정이 창업기업 경영성과에 미치는 영향: 2013년, 2014년, 2015년 우수디자인제품 선정기업들 중심으로 (An Effect of the Selection of Excellent Design Product on the Business Performance in the Start-up: Focusing on 2013, 2014 and 2015 Design Awarded Companies)

  • 유정헌;배병윤;전기석
    • 벤처창업연구
    • /
    • 제13권4호
    • /
    • pp.211-216
    • /
    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 한국디자인진흥원의 우수디자인제품 선정이 기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하고, 상대적으로 경쟁력이 낮은 창업기업을 중심으로 경영성과에 대하여 연구하고자 하였다. KIDP의 2013년 통계에 따르면 제품 판매에 미치는 요소 중 디자인이 27.53%로 가장 큰 비중을 차지하고 있으며, 기업 규모에서는 대기업과 중기업에 비해 소기업이 제품판매에 미치는 요소 중 디자인 요소가 제일 높은 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 이번 연구를 위해 수집한 데이터의 업종별 추이를 살펴보면 기술 기반 업종이 도 소매업을 비롯한 기타 업종에 비해 증가율이 상대적으로 높게 나타나고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 본 연구는 어려운 경영여건에서도 디자인의 중요성을 인식하고, KIDP로부터 우수디자인제품 선정을 받은 기업 중 186개(2013년, 2014년, 2015년)를 대상으로 업력이 7년 이하인 창업기업과 업력이 7년 이상인 계속기업의 경영성과에 차이가 있는지를 실증 분석하였다. 또한 우수디자인제품 선정기업 중 디자인의 역할이 상대적으로 크게 나타나는 제조업과 비제조업 간의 경영성과(매출액)의 차이에 대해서도 분석하였다. KIDP의 우수디자인제품 선정이 기업의 경영성과에 효과가 있는지를 선정연도를 전후 비교하여 "창업기업이 계속기업에 비해 경영성과(매출액)에 더욱 긍정적 효과를 미칠 것이다" 라는 가설을 설정하고 실증분석을 한 결과는 창업기업이 경영성과에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 우수디자인제품 선정이 제조업과 창업기업 내의 제조기업 경영성과에도 유의미한 영향으로 나타나고 있다.

중국 차이넥스트 시장의 벤처캐피탈이 IPO 첫날 수익률에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Venture Capitalists on the ChiNext IPO First-Day Return in China)

  • 강개;조셉;강호정
    • 경영과정보연구
    • /
    • 제36권4호
    • /
    • pp.117-127
    • /
    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 성장 가능성이 높고 첨단기술을 보유한 기업의 원활한 자금조달 기회를 제공하기 위해 중국 심천증권거래소에서 2009년 10월에 설립한 시장인 차이넥스트(ChiNext) 시장을 대상으로 2012년 1월부터 2015년 1월까지 벤처캐피탈이 기업의 IPO 첫날 수익률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 136개 표본기업을 대상으로 하여 T-검증과 다중회귀분석을 실시하였으며 본 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 벤처캐피탈 투자를 받지 않은 기업이 벤처캐피탈의 투자를 받은 기업보다 상장 첫날의 수익률이 더 높은 것으로 나타나 벤처캐피탈 투자를 받은 기업의 경우 벤처캐피탈이 보증역할을 하여 정보 비대칭을 줄여주기 때문인 것으로 사료된다. 둘째, 국외벤처캐피탈이 투자한 기업이 국내 벤처캐피탈이 투자한 기업보다 상장 첫날의 수익률이 더 높은 것으로 나타나 국외벤처캐피탈이 국내벤처캐피탈과 비교하여 상대적으로 기업과 투자자간의 정보비대칭이 크기 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 셋째, 단독 투자한 기업이 공동 투자한 기업보다 상장 첫날의 수익률이 더 높은 것으로 나타나 벤처캐피탈 공통투자를 받은 기업은 벤처캐피탈 단독투자를 받는 기업보다 투자자 입장에서 위험이 줄어들기 때문인 것으로 사료된다. 넷째, IPO 첫날 수익률을 종속변수로 하여 실시한 다중회귀분석 결과는 벤처캐피탈 투자기업 여부(VCAP), 벤처캐피탈의 수(VCNum), 공모규모(Lnsize)와 주가수익비율(PER)은 IPO 첫날의 수익률에 통계적으로 유의적인 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 벤처캐피탈의 유형(VCType), 거래량회전률(Turn over) 및 첨단기술기업 여부(Tech-firms)는 IPO 첫날 수익률에 통계적으로 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 중국 심천증권거래소의 차이넥스트 시장의 IPO의 첫날수익률 정도 및 특성에 대한 이해를 제고시킴으로써 투자자에게 유용한 정보를 제공해준다는 점에서 본 연구의 의의가 있다.

  • PDF

다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석 (Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model)

  • 김창섭;신정우;이미숙;이종수
    • 마케팅과학연구
    • /
    • 제19권2호
    • /
    • pp.17-26
    • /
    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

  • PDF

1차 관해된 급성 골수성 백혈병에서 자가 조혈모세포 이식을 위한 Cytarabine, Melphalan, 전신 방사선치료의 효과 (Effect of Cytarabine, Melphalan, and Total Body Irradiation as Conditioning for Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation for Patients with AML in First Remission)

  • 강기문;최병옥;채규영;강영남;장홍석;김희제;민우성;김춘추;최일봉
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • 제21권3호
    • /
    • pp.192-198
    • /
    • 2003
  • 목적: 급성 골수성 백혈병에서 자가 조혈모세포 이식은 무병생존율에 도움을 주며 1차 관해된 급성 골수성 백혈병에서 자가 조혈모세포 이식은 점차 늘어나고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구는 1차 관해된 급성 골수성 백혈병에서 자가 조혈모세포 이식을 위한 전처치 요법으로 cytarabine, melphalan과 전신 방사선치료를 시행하여 그 효과를 알아보고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 1995년 1월부터 1999년 12월까지 급성 골수성 백혈병으로 1차 관해 후 자가 조혈모세포 이식을 받은 29명을 대상으로 하였다. 환자의 중앙연령은 33세(16~47세)이었다. 자가 조혈모세포 이식을 위한 전처치 요법은 cytarabine ($3.0\;gm/m^2$, 3일), melphalan ($100\;gm/m^2$, 1일)과 전신 방사선치료를 시행하였다. 전신 방사선치료는 6MV 선형가속기를 이용하여 200 cGy를 1일 2회씩 5회 분할 조사하여 총 조사선량은 1000 cGy이었다. 결과: 추적 관찰기간은 3~58개월이었으며 중앙값은 40개월이었다. 전체 환자의 4년 무병생존율은 69.0%이었으며 중앙생존기간은 41.5개월이었다. 4년 재발률은 27.6%이었다. 무병생존율과 재발률에 영향을 미치는 인자 분석에서는 FAB 분류만이 유의한 예후인자로 분석되었다($M_3$군 vs. $M_3$를 제외한 군; p=0.048, p=0.043). 대 상 환자 중 9명에서 사망하였으며 치료와 관련된 사망은 1명이었고 8명은 재발로 사망하였다. 결론: 1차 관해된 급성 골수성 백혈병에서 자가 조혈모세포 이식을 위한 melphalan, cytarabine과 전신 방사선치료는 비교적 효과적인 전처치 요법이었다.

기술혁신형(Inno-Biz) 중소기업의 기술경영성과에 미치는 핵심요인에 관한 연구 (A Study of the Core Factors Affecting the Performance of Technology Management of Inno-Biz SMEs)

  • 윤현덕;서리빈
    • 기술혁신연구
    • /
    • 제19권1호
    • /
    • pp.111-144
    • /
    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 기술혁신형 중소기업의 기술경영성과와 기업경영성과 창출에 기여하는 핵심 영향요인을 규명하기 위해 자원기반관점에서 혁신역량과 기술적 기업가정신의 결정요인들을 활용하여 영향관계를 검증하였다. 다차원적 요인들에 의해 영향을 받는 기술혁신의 복합적 특성을 고려하여, 혁신프로세스 관점에서 기업특수자원인 혁신역량을 투입물로, 기술경영성과를 산출물로, 그리고 기업경영성과를 결과물로 인식하여 연구모형을 설정하였다. 서울과 경기지역의 제조업 중심의 360개 이노비즈 인증기업을 대상으로 실시된 설문응답을 실증분석한 결과, 기술가치평가의 정성적 지표를 개량하여 기술경영성과의 결정요인으로 적용한 기술우수성, 시장성장성, 사업수익성은 기업경영성과에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 혁신역량의 결정요인인 연구개발능력, 전략계획능력, 학습능력과 기술적 기업가정신의 결정요인인 혁신성, 진취성은 기술경영성과와 기업경영성과에 유의한 정(+)의 관계를 보였다. 즉, 높은 수준의 혁신역량과 기업가정신은 기술경영성과를 증대시키며, 궁극적으로 기업경영성과를 실현하는데 영향을 미치는 개념적 영향관계와 기술혁신의 촉진요인으로서 기술적 기업가정신의 역할과 중요성을 규명하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 최근 중요성이 부각되는 기술집약적 기업의 기술경영에 대한 성과평가 기준을 수립할 시, 기술혁신의 복합적 특성을 반영하지 못하는 재무적 성과보다는 자원과 역량의 조합을 통해 구현된 기술경영성과에 대한 주기적 평가를 실시해야 함을 설명한다. 이는 기술경영성과는 자원의 한계성과 좁은 혁신의 범위로 특징되어지는 기술혁신형 중소기업이 향후 추진할 새로운 기술혁신에 재투입될 수 있도록 기술혁신에 대한 지속적이고 일관된 투자를 실시함을 시사한다. 또한 본 연구는 정책연구에서 개념적으로 적용되어온 기술적 기업가정신에 대한 실증분석을 통해 그 역할을 규명한 의의를 갖고 있다.

  • PDF

물류기업의 거래특성요인이 성과 및 장기거래의도에 미치는 영향 (Effect of transaction characteristic factors of logistics companies on performance and long-term transaction intention)

  • 정연주
    • 한국항만경제학회지
    • /
    • 제38권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 2022
  • 글로벌 경쟁시대의 물류산업의 경영환경 변화는 고객이 기업을 선택하는 시대가 되어가고 있다. 고객에게 적합한 제품과 서비스의 제공을 통한 경쟁기업과의 차별화 우위에 따라 고객의 선택은 달라지기 때문에, 기업은 지속적으로 고객에게 선택을 받거나 유지하는데 노력하고 있다. 결국 이러한 경쟁구도는 장기적 관계구축의 중요성으로 부각된다고 볼 수 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 류기업과 화주기업간의 거래관계에 있어 물류기업이 고객만족을 위해 수행하는 거래특성과 관련된 요인들이 성과와 장기거래의 도에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 살펴보았다. 첫째, 물류기업 간 거래에서 고객의 만족을 위해 구체적으로 실현해야 할 물류기업의 거래특성요인인 물류서비스, 비용, 물류인프라 및 기업역량요인을 도출하였다. 둘째, 물류기업의 거래특성요인이 기업의 성과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 가를 분석해보고, 마지막으로 기업의 성과요인이 장기거래의도에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 분석해보았다. 실증분석결과 물류기업의 거래특성요인과 성과 간의 관계에는 통계적으로 유의한 결과가 나오지 않았는데, 이는 표본이었던 물류업체의 영세성에 기인한다고 볼 수 있다. 즉, 저가격으로 서비스를 제공할 충분한 역량이 없는 물류기업들의 경우 끊임없는 출혈경쟁을 벌일 수밖에 없으며, 이는 곧 서비스 산업에서의 대표적 특성인 차별화가 어렵다는 단점을 고스란히 안고 있는 동시에, 치열한 가격경쟁을 벌이고 있는 산업의 특성을 반영하고 있다고 볼 수 있다. 한편 기업성과요인과 장기거래의도 간의 관계는 정(+)의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 물류기업과의 파트너십과 가시적인 재무적 성과차원이 높으면 높을수록 앞으로도 지속적으로 거래를 유지하고, 점차 거래물량을 늘려나가기도 하며, 오히려 비용이 좀 더 들게된다 하더라도 거래를 지속적으로 거래하려는 의도가 크게 나타난다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

Perceptional Change of a New Product, DMB Phone

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Ko, Deok-Im
    • 마케팅과학연구
    • /
    • 제18권3호
    • /
    • pp.59-88
    • /
    • 2008
  • Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.

  • PDF

한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로- (The lesson From Korean War)

  • 윤일영
    • 안보군사학연구
    • /
    • 통권8호
    • /
    • pp.49-168
    • /
    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

  • PDF