• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.273-281
• /
• 2007

The decision of how long performing system burn-in must be answered with a probabilistic model of a system lifetime at which infant mortality failures created during assembly processes are quantified. In this paper, we propose such a model which is modified from previous results. Using the system model, we derived system reliability in terms of component and system burn-in times for the two cases of minimal repair at system failure and of component replacement and connection repair at their failure times. The procedure is illustrated with a bridge system and the optimal system burn-in times are obtained for maximizing system reliability. The result suggests that an assumption of minimal repair at system failure may underestimate the optimal burn-in time in practice.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.225-233
• /
• 2012

The research discusses interrelationship of structural and reliability importance measures which used in the probabilistic safety assessment. The most frequently used component importance measures, such as Birnbaum's Importance (BI), Risk Reduction (RR), Risk Reduction Worth (RRW), RA (Risk Achievement), Risk Achievement Worth (RAW), Fussel Vesely (FV) and Critically Importance (CI) can be derived from two structure importance measures that are developed based on the size and the number of Minimal Path Set (MPS) and Minimal Cut Set (MCS). In order to show an effectiveness of importance measures which is developed in this paper, the three representative functional structures, such as series-parallel, k out of n and bridge are used to compare with Birnbaum's Importance measure. In addition, the study presents the implementation examples of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) metrics and alternating renewal process models with exponential distribution to calculate the availability and unavailability of component facility for improving system performances. System state structure functions in terms of component states can be converted into the system availability (unavailability) functions by substituting the component reliabilities (unavailabilities) for the component states. The applicable examples are presented in order to help the understanding of practitioners.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
• /
• v.5
• /
• pp.57-70
• /
• 1994

For the system benefit optimization by considering risk or reliability from a multiple reservoir system using the Monte Carlo Technique, Many stochastically generated inflow series have to be used for the system analysis. In this study, the stochastically generated inflow series for the multiple reservoir system operation are preprocessed according to the considering system objectives and operating time periods. Through this procedure, several representative inflow series which have discrate probability levels and operation horizons are selected among the thousands of generated inflows. Then a deterministic optimization technique is applied to the hydropower energy estimation from the Han River Reservoir System which considers five reservoirs in this study. It took much less computational requirements than using the original Morite Carlo Technique, even though estimated result was almost similar.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.50
• /
• pp.23-32
• /
• 1999

Reliability and maintainability allocation in the analysis of the system's design, with the objective of planning and installing the individual components in such a way that the system performance is achieved. This paper has been made to solve an important task in reliability management of manufacturing systems within the general objective being to increase productivity while maintaining costs low. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical approach to determine an optimal reliability and maintainability allocation, trading off among system performance and parts investment costs. Two important considerations will be addressed in this regard : (ⅰ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation of parts which maximizes a given production index, having fixed the total cost of investments ; and (ⅱ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation which minimizes the total cost of investments, having fixed a minimum acceptable level of productivity. The procedure proposed in this paper is able to provide to managers and designers useful indications on the reliability and maintainability characteristics of parts in series -parallel systems. And this heuristic model is a decision support tool for contractors who are involved in large scale design projects such as ship and aircraft design. Numerical examples prove that an approximate expression of the average throughput rate is sufficiently accurate to be used in a numerical optimization method.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.461-469
• /
• 2003

In this paper, we consider the series and parallel system which include two components. We assume that the lifetimes of two components follow the bivariate Pareto model with random censored data. We obtain the estimators and approximated confidence intervals of the reliabilities for series and parallel systems based on maximum likelihood estimator and the relative frequency, respectively. Also we present a numerical example by giving a data set which is generated by computer.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2007.04a
• /
• pp.295-300
• /
• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significant]y reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2013

In this study, probabilistic reliability analysis was conducted for hybrid rocket performance using Monte-Carlo Simulation. For the accuracy, reliability analysis was performed with experimental data. To simplify the analysis process, the oxidizer was supplied with constant pressure, so that pressure variation with time can be eliminated. And time-space averaged regression rate model was used. The regression rate is obtained with a series of experiments. For reliability analysis of thrust, constant exponent of regression rate is assumed that has probabilistic character. So, the efficiency of characteristic velocity has also probabilistic values. As a results, probability distribution of the thrust is obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation using random samples of the input parameter and validated under the 95% confidence level.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.38-44
• /
• 1985

Systems reliability can be improved by using redundancy and/or developing more reliable components. This papaer considers a joint optimization of both alternatives for a series system. It is shown that the n-stage optimization problem can be decomposed into n single stage subproblem. Each subproblem is further transformed into a univariate optimization problem for which a simple and efficient solution method is developed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.79-88
• /
• 1987

This study is intended to propose a system reliability analysis model for R.C. bridge superstructures based on the systems reliability theory. Approximately assuming that the ultimate capacity of the superstructures is reached, when two adjacent girders fail subsequently, a practical system reliability model is proposed, which is based on a point estimate for Level II parallel-series system modelling. The sensitivity analysis of system reliabilities for the variation of the coefficients of correlations between the failure modes is performed by applying the proposed model for R.C. T beam bridges. It is observed that the point estimate method for the proposed model corresponds to the average value of the Ditlevsen's bound, and the system reliability index, ${\beta}_s$, varies quite sensitively according to the variation of the cofficients of correlations. Systems reliabilities of a few existing T beam bridges are analyzed by applying the proposed practical system reliability method of this study, and, in addition, the preferable direction of the development of the reliability-based code calibration using the system target reliability index concept are suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.21 no.6 s.78
• /
• pp.74-81
• /
• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.