• 제목/요약/키워드: Sequential assessment

검색결과 157건 처리시간 0.027초

평균제곱오차를 이용한 크리깅 근사모델의 오차 평가 (An Error Assessment of the Kriging Based Approximation Model Using a Mean Square Error)

  • 주병현;조태민;정도현;이병채
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제30권8호
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    • pp.923-930
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    • 2006
  • A Kriging model is a sort of approximation model and used as a deterministic model of a computationally expensive analysis or simulation. Although it has various advantages, it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the approximated model. It is generally known that a mean square error (MSE) obtained from the kriging model can't calculate statistically exact error bounds contrary to a response surface method, and a cross validation is mainly used. But the cross validation also has many uncertainties. Moreover, the cross validation can't be used when a maximum error is required in the given region. For solving this problem, we first proposed a modified mean square error which can consider relative errors. Using the modified mean square error, we developed the strategy of adding a new sample to the place that the MSE has the maximum when the MSE is used for the assessment of the kriging model. Finally, we offer guidelines for the use of the MSE which is obtained from the kriging model. Four test problems show that the proposed strategy is a proper method which can assess the accuracy of the kriging model. Based on the results of four test problems, a convergence coefficient of 0.01 is recommended for an exact function approximation.

물리적 불확실성을 내재한 입력변수의 확률 통계 기반 유효 범위 결정 방법 및 신뢰성 평가 (Statistical Effective Interval Determination and Reliability Assessment of Input Variables Under Aleatory Uncertainties)

  • 주민호;도재혁;최수교;이종수
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제41권11호
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    • pp.1099-1108
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    • 2017
  • 동일한 시험조건에서 반복시험으로부터 얻어진 실험 데이터는 이론적으로 동일한 값을 가져야 한다. 그러나 실제 데이터 결과는 다양한 환경 요소들에 의해 발생하는 오차와 불확실성을 가지게 되어 시험 값이 변동량을 가진다. 이는 정확한 실험 데이터를 얻는데 제한사항이 된다. 본 연구에서는 확률통계 방법을 이용하여 불확실성을 가진 입력변수의 유효범위를 결정하는 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 또한 실제 현장에서 사용되는 볼트 체결 마찰계수 데이터를 이용하여 제안된 알고리즘을 적용하여 불확실성을 내재한 입력변수의 유효범위를 산출하고 이에 대한 신뢰성 평가를 하였다.

컴퓨터 애니메이션을 이용한 가로경관의 평가기법 연구 -정적 및 동적 시뮬레이션 기법의 비교- (A Study of Streetscape Evaluation Methods Using Computer Animation -A Comparison of Static and Dynamic Simulation Methods-)

  • 김충식;이인성
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 1999
  • Previous research for visual assessment of streetscape employed static simulation methods to represent future landscape. However, streetscape is experienced sequentially, and thus dynamic simulations can be more effective. This study tried to adopt computer animation in the evaluation of streetscape, and examined its effects and possibilities. Three development scenarios for the redevelopment districts of Sokong-Ro and Banpo-Ro in Seoul were designed, and simulations were produced by three methods-photo-retouching, computer still image, and animation. A preference questionnaire was asked to 69 university students, and the effects of simulation methods on visual preference were examined. In addition, the frames of the animation were reclassed to identify the visibility of physical elements. The relationships between the visibility and visual preference were analyzed. The results showed that visual preference can be explained by three factors-Amenity, Tidiness, and Variousness-that account for 62.4% of the total variance, and the Amenity showed the highest proportion: 36.0%. Among the three simulation methods, animation showed the largest difference in preference for the most important factor(Amenity), and yielded the highest correlation between visibility of physical elements and Amenity. This result demonstrated that dynamic simulations can provide more accurate observation of visual changes, especially because the simulated landscape is experienced sequentially. The results also revealed that the sequential change in the visibility of physical elements can be examined easily and precisely by animation. This benefit of animation enables analysts to identify the points where the landscape varies the most, and thus visual preference should be evaluated.

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Developing a New Risk Assessment Methodology for Distribution System Operators Regulated by Quality Regulation Considering Reclosing Time

  • Saboorideilami, S.;Abdi, Hamdi
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.1154-1162
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    • 2014
  • In the restructured electricity market, Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) regime has been introduced to the distribution network. To ensure the network stability, this regime is used along with quality regulations. Quality regulation impose new financial risks on distribution system operators (DSOs). The poor quality of the network will result in reduced revenues for DSOs. The mentioned financial risks depend on the quality indices of the system. Based on annual variation of these indices, the cost of quality regulation will also vary. In this paper with regard to reclosing fault in distribution network, we develop a risk-based method to assess the financial risks caused by quality regulation for DSOs. Furthermore, in order to take the stochastic behavior of the distribution network and quality indices variations into account, time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used. Using the proposed risk method, the effect of taking reclosing time into account will be examined on system quality indicators and the cost of quality regulation in Swedish rural reliability test system (SRRTS). The results show that taking reclosing fault into consideration, affects the system quality indicators, particularly annual average interruption frequency index of the system (SAIFI). Moreover taking reclosing fault into consideration also affects the quality regulations cost. Therefore, considering reclosing time provides a more realistic viewpoint about the financial risks arising from quality regulation for DSOs.

뇌혈류 SPECT에서 정규화감산영상을 이용한 뇌혈류비축능의 정량적 평가에 관한 연구 (Quantitative Assessment of Cerebral Perfusion Reserves Using Normalized Difference Ratio Image of Brain SPECT)

  • 이재성;곽철은;박광석;정재민;이동수;정준기;이명철;고창순
    • 대한의용생체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한의용생체공학회 1996년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.279-282
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    • 1996
  • Sequential brain SPECT imaging has been used to assess the cerebral perfusion reserve(CPR) in cerebrovascular diseases(CVD). We have realized a parametric images of CPR using normalized difference ratio and deadtime correction. For the anatomical localization of CPR, the parametric images were registered to the contours of the cerebral regions using optimal threshold method. The parametric imags reflected the CPR more reliably and distinctively. We conclude that the qunatitative estimation of CPR using normalized difference ratio image could be useful for the diagnosis and assessment of postoperative prognosis in CVD.

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하천환경 평가체계의 구축에 따른 지구 지정 기준의 검토 및 제안 (Suggestion of Zoning Criteria Based on the Assessment System for River Environment)

  • 전승훈
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.647-657
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 국가의 하천환경관리차원에서 정립되고 있는 한국형 하천환경 평가체계의 하천환경 자연도와 하천 친수도에 대해 하천정비 및 관리계획의 지구지정 기준으로서의 적용가능성을 검토하고자 수행하였다. 관련 법제도적 기준과 지침을 검토한 결과 보전지구 지정기준인 역사문화적 가치는 친수지구와의 연계성의 검토할 필요가 있는 것으로 판단되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 자연환경적 특성을 반영한 하천 환경 자연도의 기준의 1단계 보전과 복원지구의 구분에 이어 인문사회적 특성을 반영한 하천 친수도를 적용하여 친수지구를 구분하는 순차적인 평가방식을 제안하였다. 시험하천인 갑천과 유등천에 적용한 결과 현재 상태의 하천환경특성을 적절하게 반영하고 있는 것으로 판단되었다. 특히 기존의 지구구분 자료가 좌안과 우안의 차이를 반영하지 못한 점이나 과도한 친수지구의 지정 등의 문제에 대해 본 연구결과는 보다 분명한 기준을 제공한 것으로 판단되었다. 한편 본 연구에서 제시한 지구지정의 기준은 하천의 물리적 특성을 기준으로 한 평가단위의 설정과 함께 다양한 하천환경의 특성을 반영한 것으로서 또 다른 법적 규제나 지역의 여건 등은 행정적 절차에서 조정, 보완되어야 할 것으로 판단되었다.

유아의 지능과 창의성 간의 관계 분석 - K-ABC 지능과 TTCT 창의성 검사를 중심으로 - (The Relation Between K-ABC Intelligence and TTCT Creativity in Preschoolers)

  • 한석실;이경민
    • 아동학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2005
  • The subjects of this study were 172 5-year-old children enrolled in a kindergarten located in Daejeon city. Instruments were the K-ABC(1997) to test children's intelligence and the TTCT(1999) to test children's creativity, Data were analyzed by Pearson's R and Canonical R. Results indicated that the relation between K-ABC IQ and TTCT CQ was statistically significant(r=.292, p<.000). This result is at variance with threshold theory where the correlation between intelligence and creativity is predicted to be high for children with IQ below 120, but above that level, the correlations are predicted to be much lower. A significant canonical function(Wilk's =.760, p<.000) was found between the sequential processing scale, achievement scale of K-ABC and elaborateness, resistance to premature closure of TTCT.

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건축 구조물의 지진응답 제어를 위해 제안된 MR감쇠기 설계 절차의 수치적 검증 (Numerical Verification of the Proposed Design Procedure of MR Damper for Seismic Response Control of Building Structure)

  • 이상현;민경원;이루지
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2005
  • In our previous study, we have developed a preliminary design procedure of MR dampers for controlling seismic response of building structures. In this paper, the effectiveness the proposed method is verified through the numerical analysis of the structures with various period and story number, and twenty earthquake loads are used for statistical assessment. The comparison between the proposed method and simplified sequential search algorithm indicates that the capacity, number and the placement of the MR damper which can achieve the given performance objective are reasonably determined using the proposed design procedure.

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순시전압 품질을 고려한 배전계통에서의 신뢰도 평가 (Reliability Evaluation of Power Distribution Systems Considering a Momentary Voltage Quality)

  • 윤상윤;김재철;배주천
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.202-205
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents the reliability evaluation methods considering the momentary voltage quality in power distribution systems. The voltage qualify phenomena deal with this paper are sustained and momentary interruptions and voltage sags. Conventional evaluation indices and methods are summarized for the sustained interruptions, and the assessment methodologies of momentary interruptions and voltage sags are proposed. The evaluation methods are divided into the analytical method and Time Sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS (Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO system.

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Technetium-99m 골주사를 이용한 하악골의 자가골 및 동종골 이식의 평가에 대한 실험적 연구 (TECHNETIUM-99m BONE SCAN FOR EVALUATING AUTOLOGOUS ILIAC BONE GRAFT AND FREEZE-DRIED BONE ALLOGRAFT IN DOG'S MANDIBLE)

  • 진성박;김수경
    • 대한치과의사협회지
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    • 제22권1호통권176호
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 1984
  • Clinical assessment of bone-graft healing in the maxillofacial region is generally limited to clinical evaluation, radiographs, and biopsy. Sequential interpretation of osseous repair, more sensitive than with conventional radiography is possible with a non-invasive, non-destructive radionuclide method. Technetium-99m radionuclide bone scan was used in the evaluation of the progress of osteogenic activity in autologous iliac bone graft and freeze-dried bone allograft of dog's mandible. Bone scan was performed at 1wk, 2wk, 4wk, 6wk, and 8wk after grafting. In autologous graft the activity ratio for the graft bone remained greater than that of the host since 2자 after grafting; however, in lyophilized allograft the activity ratio for graft bone was greater than that of the host at 6자 after grafting.

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