• 제목/요약/키워드: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

검색결과 437건 처리시간 0.025초

Development of a Computer Code, CONPAS, for an Integrated Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn, Kwang-Il;Kim, See-Darl;Song, Yong-Mann;Jin, Young-Ho;Park, Chung K.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.58-74
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    • 1998
  • A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS (CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical, and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree (CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the detailed supporting event tree (DSET) for its detailed quantification. For the integrated analysis of Level 2 PSA, the code utilizes five distinct, but closely related modules. Its computational feasibility to real PSAs has been assessed through an application to the UCN 3&4 full scope Level 2 PSA. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: (1) systematic uncertainty analysis / importance analysis / sensitivity analysis, (2) table / graphical display & print, (3) employment of the recent Level 2 PSA technologies, and (4) highly effective user interface. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the key features of CONPAS code and results of its feasibility study.

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Focal Depth Factors in the PSH Analysis

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.83-86
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    • 1998
  • The results from the Individual Plant Examination of External Event of Yonggwyang nuclear power plants, unit 3 & 4, in Korea have shown that the high degree of diversities of the experts' opinions on seismicity and attenuation models is su, pp.sed to be generic cause of uncertainty of APEs(annual exceedance probability) in the PAHA(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). This study investigated the sensitivity of the focal depth, which is one of the most uncertain seismicity parameters in Korea, Significant differences in resultant values of annual exceedance probabilities and much more symmetrical shape of the resultant PDFs(probability density functions), in case of consideration of focal depth, are found. These two results suggest that, even for the same seismic input data set including the seismicity models and ground motion attenuation models, to consider focal depth additionally for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis evaluation makes significant influence on the distributions of uncertainties and probabilities of exceedance per year for the whole ranges of seismic hazard levels. These facts suggest that it is necessary to derive focal depth parameter more effectively from the historical and instrumental documents on earthquake phenomena in Koran Peninsula for the future study of PSHA.

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Adaptive Bandwidth Algorithm for Optimal Signal Tracking of DGPS Reference Receivers

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Deuk-Jae;Seo, Ki-Yeol;Suh, Sang-Hyun
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제31권9호
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    • pp.763-769
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    • 2007
  • A narrow loop noise bandwidth method is desirable to reduce the error of raw measurements due to the thermal noise. However, it degrades the performance of GPS initial synchronization such as mean acquisition time. And it restricts the loop noise bandwidth to a fixed value determined by the lower bound of the allowable range of carrier-to-noise power ratio, so that it is difficult to optimally track GPS signal. In order to make up for the weak points of the fixed-type narrow loop noise bandwidth method and simultaneously minimize the error of code and carrier measurements, this paper proposes a stepwise-type adaptive bandwidth algorithm for DGPS reference receivers. In this paper, it is shown that the proposed adaptive bandwidth algorithm can provide more accurate measurements than those of the fixed-type narrow loop noise bandwidth method, in view of analyzing the simulation results between two signal tracking algorithms. This paper also carries out sensitivity analysis of the proposed adaptive bandwidth algorithm due to the estimation uncertainty of carrier-to-noise power ratio. Finally the analysis results are verified by the experiment using GPS simulator.

소양강댐 가상 파괴파의 수치모의 (A Numerical Simulation for the Dam-Break Wave from the Hypothetical Failure of Soyanggang Dam)

  • 이상호;이길성
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.109-122
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    • 1992
  • 파괴양상, 조도, 하류댐 지점의 수위-유량 관계 및 붕괴여부에 불확실성이 있으나, 소양강댐이 가상 파괴될 경우 댐 파괴파의 전파양상을 DAMBRK로 수치모의하였다. 모의결과, 서울은 6~8시간 내에 범람이 예상되며 표고 30-20m 이하 지역이 침수되고, 춘천의 대부분 지역이 침수된다. 첨두유량은 파괴시간 1~2시간에 대하여 인도교에서 약 7.0만 CMS이고 춘천은 약 22~34만 CMS였다. 민감도 분석결과 하류댐들의 붕괴여부나 파괴양상이 서울지역에 대한 범람양상에 크게 영향을 미치지는 않았다.

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A Cascaded Fuzzy Inference System for University Non-Teaching Staff Performance Appraisal

  • Neogi, Amartya;Mondal, Abhoy Chand;Mandal, Soumitra Kumar
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.595-612
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    • 2011
  • Most organizations use performance appraisal system to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of their employees. In evaluating staff performance, performance appraisal usually involves awarding numerical values or linguistic labels to employees performance. These values and labels are used to represent each staff achievement by reasoning incorporated in the arithmetical or statistical methods. However, the staff performance appraisal may involve judgments which are based on imprecise data especially when a person (the superior) tries to interpret another person's (his/her subordinate) performance. Thus, the scores awarded by the appraiser are only approximations. From fuzzy logic perspective, the performance of the appraisee involves the measurement of his/her ability, competence and skills, which are actually fuzzy concepts that can be captured in fuzzy terms. Accordingly, fuzzy approach can be used to handle these imprecision and uncertainty information. Therefore, the performance appraisal system can be examined using Fuzzy Logic Approach, which is carried out in the study. The study utilized a Cascaded fuzzy inference system to generate the performance qualities of some University non-teaching staff that are based on specific performance appraisal criteria.

진단검사 정확도 평가지표의 신뢰구간 (The Use of Confidence Interval of Measures of Diagnostic Accuracy)

  • 오태호;박선일
    • 한국임상수의학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.319-323
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    • 2015
  • The performance of diagnostic test accuracy is usually summarized by a variety of statistics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and kappa. These indices are most commonly presented when evaluations of competing diagnostic tests are reported, and it is of utmost importance to compare the accuracies of diagnostic tests to decide on the best available test for certain medical disorder. However, it is important to emphasize that specific point values of these indices are merely estimates. If parameter estimates are reported without a measure of uncertainty (precision), knowledgeable readers cannot know the range within which the true values of the indices are likely to lie. Therefore, when evaluations of diagnostic accuracy are reported the precision of estimates should be stated in parallel. To reflect the precision of any estimate of a diagnostic performance characteristic or of the difference between performance characteristics, the computation of confidential interval (CI), an indicator of precision, is widely used in medical literatures in that CIs are more informative to interpret test results than the simple point estimates. The majority of peer-reviewed journals usually require CIs to be specified for descriptive estimates, whereas domestic veterinary journals seem less vigilant on this issues. This paper describes how to calculate the indices and associated CIs using practical examples when assessing diagnostic test performance.

마이크로 유동에서 PtOEP/PS 박막을 이용한 용존 산소 농도장의 정량적 가시화 (Quantitative Visualization of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration Field in Micro Flows using PtOEP/PS Membrane)

  • 송대헌;김현동;김경천
    • 한국가시화정보학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2011
  • It is highly needed to measure the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration field in water for a variety of purposes such as biological, industrial, environmental monitoring and medical application. Application of PSP (Pressure Sensitive Paint) which is sensitive to oxygen concentration has been carried out to measure DO concentration field using PtOEP/PS film and intensity based method under the UV-LEDs illumination. A micro round water jet having 100% of DO was obliquely impinged on to a PtOEP/PS film coated plate placed in a 0% of DO water container. DO concentration fields on the impinging plate were quantitatively visualized with a $2.94\;{\mu}m$ of spatial resolution. Through pixel-by-pixel calibration, uncertainty of each pixel by different sensitivity, different dye concentration and non-uniformity of illumination was removed. It is demonstrated that the high DO concentration region was coincided with the impingement area. The DO concentration gradient due to DO diffusion was affected by Reynolds number.

대입 준비생의 입시스트레스가 정신건강에 미치는 영향 (The Influence of High School Students' Entrance Exam Stress on Their Mental Health)

  • 이희자;박영수
    • 한국학교ㆍ지역보건교육학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2007
  • This study aimed at investigating the level of high school students' entrance exam stress and mental health first and also investigating if the entrance exam stress and mental health are related to gender, grade, character type, parenting style and economic status. This is expected to be used as a fundamental data for the development of health education program on high school students' stress and diagnosis of their mental health. To achieve those goals above, the questionnaire was used and the sample consisted of 600 students from general high schools in a large city, C and in a smaller city, A in Chungnam province through questionnaire and the conclusion, which was based on 582 proper questionnaires from the 600 questionnaires, through variable analysis, correlation analysis and multi-regression, is below. First, according to the information provided by respondents, the result showed the relationship between those background variables and the entrance exam stress and mental health level. As the students are more introverted and the parenting style is more authoritative, the entrance exam stress is higher and the mental health level is higher as the parenting style is more authoritative and the economic status is lower. In gender, the entrance exam stress level was high for male students in regard to parents pressure. For female students, it was due to the insufficient free time. In test performance, the good grade group showed high stress level when they don't have enough free time and the poor grade group showed high stress level when they have test tension and poor test performance. In character style, the introverted group showed high stress level in future uncertainty. In parenting style, the authoritative group showed significantly high level in all four sub-factors and there is no significant relationship with the stress level and economic statue. Female students reported higher mental health level than male students in somatization and depression. In academic achievement, the poor grade group showed high level in obsession, fear-anxiety and psychotism. In character style, the introverted group showed high level in sensitivity towards others and depression. And in parenting style, the authoritative group is higher in 9 sub-factors than the other two groups in the factor, economic status. The lower economic status group showed high mental health problem level in this order; in obsession, sensitivity towards others, depression, paranonia and psychotism. Second, the results revealed that there is a significant difference among the groups after comparing and analyzing the relationship between the mental health level according to the three groups, the first, second and third group divided by the degree of entrance exam stress. And the higher the entrance exam stress is, the higher the mental health problem level is. Verification showed that there was obvious difference among the groups. the entrance exam stress was positively correlated with the mental health level. The lack of free time, future uncertainty, test anxiety/poor test performance and parents pressure, these factors, in that order, were correlated with the mental health level. when the prediction variables which influenced on mental health are analyzed, test-anxiety/poor test performance was found to be related to mental health most. And after the factor, test-anxiety, future uncertainty and the lack of free time were listed(ranked), however results did not show any correlation with parents' pressure.

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중합체 겔 선량측정법을 위한 최적의 자기공명영상 변수에 관한 연구 (A Study of Optimized MRI Parameters for Polymer Gel Dosimetry)

  • 조삼주;정영립;이상훈;허현도;최진호;박성일;심수정;권수일
    • 한국의학물리학회지:의학물리
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • 최신 방사선 치료 및 수술 기법에는 복잡한 3차원적 선량분포를 정확히 측정하는 실용적 선량분석 기기 및 기술이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 실험실에서 제작한 겔을 방사선 치료 영역에서 선량계로 활용하기 위해 최적화된 자기공명영상 변수 조건에 대해 연구하였다. 이를 위해 각 자기공명영상 획득 조건에서 TE 시간 TR 시간, 영상 두께, 코일 등을 달리하여 조건 별로 획득한 영상을 이용하여 비교 평가하였고, 선량불확도 및 선량 분해능을 도입하여 본 연구에서 찾은 조건에 대해 평가하였다. 8% 젤라틴(300 bloom, Sigma-Aldrich, USA), 8% MAA (Metaacrylic acid, Sigma-Aldrich, USA), 10 mM THPC (tetrakis hydroxymethyl phosphonium, Sigma-Aldrich, USA), 그리고 0.05 mM HQ (Hydroquinone, Sigma-Aldrich, USA) 농도의 조성비를 가진 정상산소 중합체 겔을 실험실에서 합성하였다. 방사선 선량 전달은 Co-60 감마선 조사기 (Theratron-780; AECL, Ottawa, Canada)를 사용하였고 고체 팬텀을 사용하여 중합체 겔에 각각 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14 Gy의 선량을 전달하였다. 자기공명영상 장치의 특성상 T2 시간을 얻기 위해서는 fast spin echo 파형을 사용하였다. 일반적으로 Head Coil이 SNR이 Body coil 보다 낮아 선량 불확도가 우수할 것으로 예측하였으나, 일부 문헌에서는 Body coil이 영상 균일도가 우수하다고 하였다. 하지만 본 연구에서는 Head coil이 선량 불확도 및 선량 분해능이 모든 선량 영역에서 Body coil 보다 우수한 것을 확인하였다. TR 시간 연구에서 TR 1,500 ms와 TR 2,000 ms 간의 차이는 선량분해능에서 모두 큰 차이가 없으나 TR 1,500 ms가 조금 낮은 선량 불확도 값을 갖는 것을 보았다. MR 영상 두께가 2.5 mm일 경우 모든 TE 시간에 대해 4 Gy에서 가장 낮은 선량 불확도 값을 가졌다. 특히 TE 12 ms 경우 4 Gy 이후에는 가장 낮은값의 결과를 얻었다. 선량 불확도의 경우 6 Gy까지는 TE 시간에 따른 차이는 없으나 이후에는 TE 12 ms가 가장 나은 결과를 얻었다. 선량 불확도의 겨우 6 Gy까지는 모든 TE 시간에 대해 차이가 미미하나 8 Gy 이상에는 20 ms가 가장 우수한 선량 분해능 값을 가졌다. 선량 분해능 값 역시 NEX 3에서 가장 우수한 값을 가졌고 2 NEX일 때 가장 높은 분해능 값을 가졌다. 본 연구 결과 영상 두께와 NEX의 결과는 영상 두께가 얇은 경우 NEX가 높을수록 우수한 결과를 얻었고 영상 두께가 두꺼워 질수록 NEX가 낮아야 함을 확인했다.

경수로 사용후핵연료 저장조 열부하 평가를 위한 연소조건 인자 민감도 분석 (Sensitivity Analysis of Depletion Parameters for Heat Load Evaluation of PWR Spent Fuel Storage Pool)

  • 김인영;이은철
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.237-245
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    • 2011
  • 후쿠시마 사고 이후 사용후핵연료 저장시설 안전성 재검증 필요성이 증대되고 있는 가운데, 재검증 결과의 신뢰성 향상을 위해 열부하 평가결과의 정확도 향상이 요구되고 있다. 이를 위한 기초연구로 본 연구에서는 상대적으로 중요성이 저평가되었던, 저장시나리오, 연소조건 관련 인자와 같이 붕괴열 및 열부하 평가 영향인자를 도출하고, 고리 4호기를 대상으로 ORIGEN2 코드를 이용해 그 효과를 평가하였다. 대표 저장시나리오에 대한 열부하 평가 결과, 최후 방출 핵연료의 붕괴열은 시나리오에 따라 전체 열부하의 최대 80.42%를 차지해 저장시설 열부하에 지배적인 영향을 미침이 확인되었다. 또한 연소조건 인자로 선택된 축 방향 연소 효과, 연소이력, 비출력 효과에 대한 민감도 분석 수행 결과, 냉각기간이 짧을수록 각 인자의 붕괴열에 대한 영향이 커지는 것으로 확인되었다. 각 인자별로는 비출력, 연소이력, 축 방향 연소 효과의 순으로 붕괴열에 대한 영향력이 컸으며, 특히 비출력의 경우 방출 직후 평균값의 0.34에서 1.66배, 방출 1년 후에는 평균 대비 0.55에서 1.37배까지 붕괴열 변화를 초래함이 확인되었다. 즉, 저장시설의 열부하 평가와 같이 냉각기간이 짧은 핵연료에 대한 해석 시 비출력, 연소이력과 같은 연소조건인자가 해석결과에 매우 큰 차이를 초래할 수 있으므로, 해석결과의 정확도 향상을 위해 기존 해석자의 공학적 판단에 의거한 임의 인자 대표성 핵연료 선택방식 대신 실제 운전 데이터의 적용 등이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 열부하 해석 결과의 정확도 향상 및 불확실도 평가를 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.