• Title/Summary/Keyword: Second-order reliability method

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Study on Relational Model of Scuba Diving Instructors' Expertise, Instructor Reliability and Instruction Efficiency (스쿠버다이빙 지도자의 전문성과 지도자신뢰 및 지도효율성의 관계모형 분석)

  • SO, Hoon;YOO, Hyun-Jo;HWANG, Young-Seong
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1436-1446
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to understand how scuba diving instructors' expertise, instructor reliability and instruction efficiency are related to each other. In order to achieve the research goal, the study used a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling method and collected valid samples from 400 individuals at age of 20 and older who were scuba diving in scuba diving clubs in Busan, Gyeongnam, Gyeongbuk, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk. The 400 valid samples were applied to the data analysis. The study used SPSS 21.0 for processing the gathered data via a frequency analysis, a reliability analysis and a correlation analysis and in order to verify the hypotheses, the study applied AMOS 21.0 and conducted a confirmatory factor analysis and a structure equation model analysis. Findings that the study had extracted are summarized as follows. First, the study confirmed that the scuba diving instructors' expertise has a positive effect on the instructor reliability. Second, the scuba diving instructors' expertise was reported to positively influence the instruction efficiency. Third, the results revealed that the scuba diving club members' reliability in the instructors has a positive influence on the instruction efficiency.

Reliability approach to groundwater flow analysis in underground excavation (지하굴착지반에서의 지하수 흐름에 관한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Jang, Yeon-Soo;Kim, Hong-Seong;Park, Jeong-Wong;Park, Joon-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.344-351
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a reliability-groundwater flow program is developed by coupling the 2-D finite element numerical groundwater flow program with first and second order reliability program. From the parametric study of hydraulic conductivity of soil layers, the increase of both mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity results in the increase of probability of exceeding the threshold hydraulic head. The probability of failure was more sensitive to parameters of weathered granitic soil and rock located at the middle and bottom of the excavation than those at the other locations. It can be recommended from this study that the reliability method, which can include the uncertainty of soil parameters, should be performed together with the deterministic analysis to compensate the weakness of the latter analysis for the groundwater flow problem of underground excavations.

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Lifetime prediction of the engine mount about the environment temperature variation (환경 온도변화에 대한 자동차용 엔진마운트의 수명 예측)

  • Kim, Hyung Min;Wei, Shin Hwan;Yoon, Sin Il;Shin, Ik Jae;Kim, Gyu Ro
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2013
  • In order to assess the reliability of engine mount for a vehicles, life test model and procedure are developed. By using this method, failure mechanism and life distribution are analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) the main failure mechanism is degradation failure of engine mount rubber by fatigue failure at dynamic load. ii) temperature is a second factor to affect a failure. iii) the life distribution of engine mount module is fitted well to Weibull life distribution and the shape parameter is 18.4 and the accelerated life model of that is fitted well to Arrhenius model.

Fuzzy reliability analysis of laminated composites

  • Chen, Jianqiao;Wei, Junhong;Xu, Yurong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.665-683
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    • 2006
  • The strength behaviors of Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP) Composites can be greatly influenced by the properties of constitutive materials, the laminate structures, and load conditions etc, accompanied by many uncertainty factors. So the reliability study on FRP is an important subject of research. Many achievements have been made in reliability studies based on the probability theory, but little has been done on the roles played by fuzzy variables. In this paper, a fuzzy reliability model for FRP laminates is established first, in which the loads are considered as random variables and the strengths as fuzzy variables. Then a numerical model is developed to assess the fuzzy reliability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to compute the reliability of laminas under the maximum stress criterion. In the second part of this paper, a generalized fuzzy reliability model (GFRM) is proposed. By virtue of the fact that there may exist a series of states between the failure state and the function state, a fuzzy assumption for the structure state together with the probabilistic assumption for strength parameters is adopted to construct the GFRM of composite materials. By defining a generalized limit state function, the problem is converted to the conventional reliability formula that enables the first-order reliability method (FORM) applicable in calculating the reliability index. Several examples are worked out to show the validity of the models and the efficiency of the methods proposed in this paper. The parameter sensitivity analysis shows that some of the mean values of the strength parameters have great influence on the laminated composites' reliability. The differences resulting from the application of different failure criteria and different fuzzy assumptions are also discussed. It is concluded that the GFRM is feasible to use, and can provide an effective and synthetic method to evaluate the reliability of a system with different types of uncertainty factors.

Reliability Analysis to Contaminant Migration in Saturated Sandy Soils: Implementation and Verification (포화(飽和)된 사질토(砂質土) 내로의 오염물(汚染物) 이동에 관한 신뢰성(信賴性): 수행(遂行) 및 검증(檢證))

  • Jang, Yeon Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 1992
  • The first and second-order reliability method(FORM and SORM) is presented using one dimensional finite difference and two dimensional finite element transport models. FORM and SORM can be used without any restrictive assumptions about the properties of the media, and the sensitivity information obtained as part of these analyses is used to identify the parameters which have major influence on the estimate of probability. The reliability analysis of transport in a one-dimensional domain is used to test the robustness of the reliability code and to evaluate the accuracy of the reliability method. A continuous source 2-D example with a concentration threshold limit state function is used to evaluate the influence of the parameters in the location of interest on the reliability solution.

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Partial safety factors for retaining walls and slopes: A reliability based approach

  • GuhaRay, Anasua;Baidya, Dilip Kumar
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.99-115
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    • 2014
  • Uncertainties in design variables and design equations have a significant impact on the safety of geotechnical structures like retaining walls and slopes. This paper presents a possible framework for obtaining the partial safety factors based on reliability approach for different random variables affecting the stability of a reinforced concrete cantilever retaining wall and a slope under static loading conditions. Reliability analysis is carried out by Mean First Order Second Moment Method, Point Estimate Method, Monte Carlo Simulation and Response Surface Methodology. A target reliability index ${\beta}$ = 3 is set and partial safety factors for each random variable are calculated based on different coefficient of variations of the random variables. The study shows that although deterministic analysis reveals a safety factor greater than 1.5 which is considered to be safe in conventional approach, reliability analysis indicates quite high failure probability due to variation of soil properties. The results also reveal that a higher factor of safety is required for internal friction angle ${\varphi}$, while almost negligible values of safety factors are required for soil unit weight ${\gamma}$ in case of cantilever retaining wall and soil unit weight ${\gamma}$ and cohesion c in case of slope. Importance of partial safety factors is shown by analyzing two simple geotechnical structures. However, it can be applied for any complex system to achieve economization.

The Validity and Reliability of the Second Korean Working Conditions Survey

  • Kim, Young Sun;Rhee, Kyung Yong;Oh, Min Jung;Park, Jungsun
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.111-116
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    • 2013
  • Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of the Second Korean Working Conditions Survey (KWCS), focusing on its validity and reliability. Methods: The external validity was evaluated by the assessment of sampling procedures and the response rate, in order to investigate the representativeness of the sample. The content validity was evaluated by the assessment of the development of the questionnaire, and the consistency of questions for the selected construct. The test-retest method was used to evaluate the reliability by means of a phone call survey of 30% of the respondents, who were randomly selected. The respondents' satisfaction regarding the survey procedures and interview time were analyzed to evaluate the quality of survey data. Results: The external validity was assured by an acceptable sampling procedure, rigid multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling. The content validity was also guaranteed by a reasonable procedure for the development of the questionnaire with a pretest. The internal consistency of the questions for work autonomy was maintained, with 0.738 of Cronbach's alpha. The response rate of 36% was lower than that of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), with a contact rate of 66%, compared to 76% for the EWCS. The matching rates of the five retested questions were more than 98% reliable. Conclusion: The quality of the second KWCS was assured by the high external and content validity and reliability. The rigid sampling procedure and development of the questionnaire contributed to quality assurance. The high level of reliability may be guaranteed by the sophisticated field survey procedures and the development of a technical manual for interviewers. The technical strategies for a high response rate should be developed for future surveys.

Review of the Application of the First-Order Reliability Methods to Safety Assessment of Structures (1차 신뢰성 해석법의 구조적 안전성평가에의 적용에 관한 재고)

  • Joo-Sung Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 1991
  • This paper is concerned with comparison of the first-order reliability methods applied to the assessment of structural safety. For convenience the reliability methods are divided into two categories : the One can explicitly consider the effects of uncertainties in material and geometric variables on those of load effects, say stresses and displacement in the structural analysis procedure and the other one does not. The first method is commonly termed as the stochastic finite element method(SFEM) or probabilistic finite element method(PFEM) and the second method is termed heroin as the ordinary reliability method to distinct it from the stochastic finite element method in which the structural analysis is carried out just once and the load effects are directly input into the reliability analysis procedure. This is based on the reasonable assumption that the level of uncertainties of load effects is the same as those of load itself. In this paper the above two different reliability method have been applied to the safety assessment of plane frame structures and compared thier results from the view point of their efficiency and usefulness. As lear as results of the present structure models are concerned, it can be said that the ordinary reliability method can give reasonable results when the uncertainties of material and geometric variables are comparatively small, say when less than about 15% and the stochastic finite element method is desired to be applied to the structure in which the COV's are comparatively great, say when greater than about 15%.

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Improved Methods for Reliability Evaluations of Structural Systems (구조계의 신뢰도해석을 위한 개선된 기법)

  • 류정수;윤정방
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1992.04a
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 1992
  • The primary objective of this study is the development of second moment methods for the efficient reliability evaluations of structural systems. Two methods are presented. One is the improved first order reliability method (IFORM), and the other is the modified probabilistic network evaluation technique (MPNET). For the purpose of verifying the proposed methods, example analyses are carried out on several cases with two failure modes, a plane frame structure involving three failure modes and simplified parallel member models for fatigue reliability evaluations of offshore structures. Numerical results indicate that the effectiveness of the proposed methods over the conventional ones (i.e., the FORM and the PNET) increases very significantly as the number of failure modes of the system increases.

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Pobabilistic Design of Asphalt Pavement Surface Courae (아스팔트 鋪裝道路의 確率論的 表層設計)

  • Kim, Gwang-U;Yeon, Gyu-Seok
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 1992
  • A prototype probabilistic approach to thickness design for asphalt pavement surface course was developed using first-order second moment probability model. The tensile strain (load effect) developing at the bottom of surface layer due to the wheel load and the critical strain (resistance) of asphalt concrete were used as random variables for pavement reliability analysis. Based on the parameters for load effect and resistance data collected from reference and field, simulated data were generated by Monte Carlo method for reliability evaluation of the pavement for a typical rural highway. Thickness of pavement surface course was defined in terms of target reliability of the pavement, growth factor of traffic, design life of pavement and resistance of the asphalt concrete to be placed on the pavement. According to these rationales, prototype thickness design chrats were sugested through example studies. From these, similar design charts can be developed for many pavements if appropriate data and target reliability are determined.

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