• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.35-48
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• 2020

This paper provides methods for the deterministic and reliability-based design of the support pressures necessary to prevent tunnel face collapse. The deterministic method is developed by extending the use of the unique load multiplier, which is embedded within OptumG2/G3 with the intention of determining the maximum load that can be supported by a system. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional examples are presented to illustrate the applications. The obtained solutions are validated according to those derived from the existing methods. The reliability-based method is developed by incorporating the Response Surface Method and the advanced first-order second-moment reliability method into the bisection algorithm, which continuously updates the support pressure within previously determined brackets until the difference between the computed reliability index and the user-defined value is less than a specified tolerance. Two-dimensional reliability-based support pressure is compared and validated via Monte Carlo simulations, whereas the three-dimensional solution is compared with the relationship between the support pressure and the resulting reliability index provided in the existing literature. Finally, a parametric study is carried out to investigate the influences of factors on the required support pressure.

• 한국전산유체공학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.21-28
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• 2006

Reliability Based Design Optimization(RBDO) is one of the optimization methods that minimize the product failure due to small changes of operating conditions or process errors. It searches the optimum that satisfies the safety margin of each constraint, and it gives stable and reliable designs. However, RBDO requires many times oj computational efforts compared with the conventional deterministic optimization(DO) to evaluate the probability of failure about each constraint, therefore it is hard to apply directly to large-scaled problems such as a flexible wing shape design optimization. For the efficient reliability analysis, the approximate reliability analysis method with the two-point approximation(TPA) is proposed In this study, the lift-to-drag ratio maximization designs are performed with 3-dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis and NASTRAN structural analysis, and the optimization results about the deterministic, FORM and SORM are compared.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2001년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.102-109
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• 2001

In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. Thus, the computer program by the Probabilistic FEM is developed by incorporating the probabilistic concept into the conventional FEM method. This paper estimated for the reliability of a plane stress structure by Advanced First-Order Second Moment method using von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index and failure probability of attained by the Monte Carlo Simulation method with the von Mises criterion were same as PFEM, but the Monte Carlo Simulation were very time-consuming. The variance of member thickness and load could influence the reliability and failure probability most sensitively among the design variables from the results of the parameter analysis. And proper failure criterion must be used to design safely.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제22권10호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2006

지하수흐름에 대한 신뢰성 해석을 실시하였으며, 흐름에 관여하는 매개변수들이 목표 값의 파괴확률을 초과하는데 미치는 영향을 알아보았다. 본 연구를 위하여 2차원 지하수흐름 프로그램을 3-D 프로그램 DGU-FLOW로 확장하여 제작하고, 이를 1계 및 2계 신뢰성 프로그램에 연계하였다. 3차원 흐름 프로그램의 검증은 지하굴착지반의 지하수 흐름 해석 문제를 풀고 이를 MODFLOW 프로그램과 비교하여 수행하였다. 신뢰성부분 또한 몬테칼로 해석을 수행하여 나타난 파괴확률을 비교함으로써 검증하였으며 지하수 흐름에 대한 1계 및 2계 신뢰성해석을 수행하여 산정된 파괴확률 값은 몬테칼로 해석을 통하여 나온 값과 매우 근접하였다. 토질층의 투수계수에 대한 매개변수 해석결과 투수계수의 평균과 분산의 증가는 목표 수량을 초과하는 파괴확률의 증가를 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 파괴확률의 민감도는 여러흐름 변수중에서 흐름영역 경계부의 일정 수두에 가장 민감한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.180-190
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• 1997

A new method in the fault tree analysis (FTA) for the reliability calculation is suggested. Two steps are necessary in traditional method in evaluation of the occurrence probability of top event in fault tree (FT). The first step is to find the minimal outsets, and the second one is to substitute the result into the poincare equation. In order to reduce the enormous computing time of this method, lots of rapid algorithms have been developed. Almost of all achievements were, however, based on the partial structural properties of FT. In this paper, the FT is transformed to a non-linear graph G which has the same minimal outsets of original n, and then the reliability is calculated using the domination theory. In this new method, the required number of equation terms are at most $2^n$ (n is node number of graph G), while $2^m$-1 (m is the number of minimal cutsets) calculation terms are required in the poincare equation in traditional method. Since m>>n in general. our new method reduces the calculation time significantly.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제56권11호
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• pp.1892-1902
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• 2007

This paper presents a new generating unit maintenance scheduling algorithm considering regional reserve margin and transfer capability. Existing researches focused on reliability of the overall power systems have some problems that adequate reliability criteria cannot be guaranteed in supply shortage regions. Therefore specific constraints which can treat regional reserve ratio have to be added to conventional approaches. The objective function considered in this paper is the variance (second-order momentum) of operating reserve margin to levelize reliability during a planning horizon. This paper focuses on significances of considering regional reliability criteria and an advanced hybrid optimization method based on PSO algorithm. The proposed method has been applied to IEEE reliability test system(1996) with 32-generators and a real-world large scale power system with 291 generators. The results are compared with those of the classical central maintenance scheduling approaches and conventional PSO algorithm to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm proposed in this paper.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.779-799
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• 2010

In order to consider high-order effects on the actual limit state function, a new response surface method is proposed for structural reliability analysis by the use of high-order approximation concept in this study. Hermite polynomials are used to determine the highest orders of input random variables, and the sampling points for the determination of highest orders are located on Gaussian points of Gauss-Hermite integration. The cross terms between two random variables, only in case that their corresponding percent contributions to the total variation of limit state function are significant, will be added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. As a result, significant reduction in computational cost is achieved with this strategy. Due to the addition of cross terms, the additional sampling points, laid on two-dimensional Gaussian points off axis on the plane of two significant variables, are required to determine the coefficients of the approximated limit state function. All available sampling points are employed to construct the final response surface function. Then, Monte Carlo Simulation is carried out on the final approximation response surface function to estimate the failure probability. Due to the use of high order polynomial, the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional second-order or linear response surface method. It also provides much more efficient solutions than the available high-order response surface method with less loss in accuracy. The efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method compared with those of various response surface methods available are illustrated by five numerical examples.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.74-81
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.295-300
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significant]y reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.1-12
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• 1987

LRFD 설계형식의 개별안전계수를 확률이론에 의하여 구할 때 주로 AFOSM 방법이 이용되어 왔다. 그러나 이 방법에 의해 구한 하중 및 저항계수를 사용하면 결과적인 신뢰성지수는 목표 신뢰성지수와 다를 수 있다. 최근 Ayyub 등이 제안한 Reliability-Conditioned(RC) 방법은 목표 신뢰성지수에 부합하지만 계산의 신속성 및 일관적 체계를 유지할 수 없다. 본 연구에서 제안한 RC/AFOSM 조합방법을 이용하면 계산의 체계가 일관적이고, 다양한 설계조건에 대하여 거의 일정한 개별안전계수를 결정할 수 있으며 이로부터 결과되는 신뢰성지수도 목표 신뢰성지수에 매우 근접하다.