• 제목/요약/키워드: Sea Level Prediction

검색결과 123건 처리시간 0.02초

MODIS 구름 영상의 표면 특성을 이용한 해무와 하층운의 구별 (Discrimination between Sea Fog and low Stratus Using Texture Structure of MODIS Satellite Images)

  • 허기영;민세윤;하경자;김재환
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.571-581
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    • 2008
  • 한반도의 서해에서 해무는 봄과 여름에 자주 발생한다. 본 연구의 목적은 MODIS 위성 영상을 사용하여 해무를 탐지하는 데 있다 하층운의 운정 표면은 불균질한 반면에 해무의 표면은 균질한 특징이 있으므로, 하층운과 해무의 균질성을 이용한 해무 탐지 방법이 제시되었다. 11 um의 밝기온도(BT), 3.7um와 11um의 밝기온도차(BTD)는 하층운으로부터 해무를 구별하는데 유용하였다. 안개/하층운 지역의 밝기 온도와 맑은 지역에서의 밝기 온도의 차이를 이용한 방법과 안개/하층운 지역에서 밝기 온도와 밝기온도차의 표준편차 임계값을 이용한 방법은 안개와 하층운을 구별하는데 적용될 수 있었다.

PNU CGCM V1.1을 이용한 12개월 앙상블 예측 시스템의 개발 (Development of 12-month Ensemble Prediction System Using PNU CGCM V1.1)

  • 안중배;이수봉;류상범
    • 대기
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.

공동주택 에어컨 실외기의 투과소음 예측 및 저감방안에 관한 연구 (The prediction of sound transmission from air-conditioner outdoor-units in multi-unit housings)

  • 최진권;장서일;이진교;강정훈
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.996-1001
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    • 2000
  • The sound transmission from the machine room where air-conditioner outdoor unit is located into the adjacent room is predicted and evaluated. The software package for statistical energy analysis(SEA) is utilized to determine the transmission losses of multi-layerd panels. To determine the noise level in the machine room, ray tracing method is adopted. The various sound transmission paths have been effectively identified and evaluated by the SEA tool.

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해수면 상승에 따른 해안지역 생태환경 변화 (A Study on the Eco-Environmental Change of Coastal Area by the Sea Level Rise)

  • 김남신;이창석
    • 한국지리정보학회지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2010
  • 전지구적인 해수면상승은 해안지역에 침수와 침식을 일으켜 생태환경 변화에 영향을 미친다. 해수면 변화에 따른 지형 생태환경 변화에 관한 예측모델은 다가올 수 있는 미래의 환경변화를 예측함으로써 해안지역 관리를 위한 정보를 제공해 줄 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구는 해안지역에서 해수면 상승에 따른 생태환경 변화를 예측하고자 하였다. 예측모델은 IPCC 시나리오에 따라 해안변화를 예측할 있도록 개발된 SLAMM 모델을 사용하였다. 모델은 한강과 낙동강 하구, 순천만과 함평만을 사례지역으로 100년간의 환경변화를 예측하였다. 연구결과를 요약하면, 한강하구는 갯벌이 2075년부터 점차 사라졌고, 관목습지와 염생식생대가 발달하였다. 낙동강 하구에서는 2025년부터 관목습지가 감소하였고, 2050년부터 갯벌이 발달하였으며, 김해 평야가 부분적으로 침수되었고, 습지가 형성되었다. 함평만에서 2025년에 염생습지가 퇴적되었고, 2050년까지 확장되었던 갯벌은 그 이후에 부분적으로 침수되었다. 순천만의 갯벌은 2025년 이후 침수로 사라졌으며, 염색습지가 만입지역에 발달하였다.

오산시의 맑은날 하절기 등가 하늘온도 예측 (Prediction of the Summer Effective Sky Temperatrure during the Clear Day on Osan City)

  • 변기홍
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제30권5호
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to predict the effective sky temperature on Osan City during the summer. The north latitude, east longitude of Osan City is $37^{\circ}06'$ and $127^{\circ}02'$. The altitude from the sea level is 48m. Empirical relations of the effective sky temperature suggested by Duffie and Beckman are compared on clear days. For the effective sky temperature prediction, data measured by the Korea Meteorological Administration is used as an input to the Bliss model. Both Hottel and Krondratyev model are used to calculate the water vapor emissivity. The results using Hottel's model match well with the empirical relation proposed by Bliss. The results show maximum, minimum, and average values depending on water vapor emissivity model. The maximum deviation is about 10K and is due to total emissivity model.

칼만 필터를 이용한 실시간 조위 예측 (the On-Line Prediction of Water Levels using Kalman Filters)

  • 이재형;황만하
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 1991
  • 본 논문은 차분형 천수방정식을 확장 칼만 필터로 변환하여 조석 예측을 시도하였다. 필터는 바닥마찰과 바람응력, 매개변수를 무작위 변수로 하는 추계학적 모형으로 구성되었으며 조위 및 유속과 함께 추정되도록 하였다. 물리적인 상황의 변화에 적응하도록 각 추정치들은 전파되고, 갱신된다. 본 모형에 서해안의 실측자료를 적용하여 조위의 예측을 실시한 결과, 이상 고조 기간동안에도 만족한 성과를 거두었다.

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한국의 지온 예측과 지리적 영향 분석 (Prediction Equation and Geographical Effect Analysis of the Soil Temperature in Korea)

  • 김영복;이승규;김성태
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.497-502
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    • 2000
  • For the analysis of geothermal energy utilization in agriculture the relations between soil temperature and geographical variables such as latitude longitude and sea level in Korea were analyzed and the regression equations were suggested among them. The measured soil temperature data for four years in eighteen cities were used to get the soil temperature fitting equation depending on the soil depth and the time of year in each city. The mean correlation coefficient for those data fitting was 0.980. the correlation coefficient of regression analysis for the mean soil temperature($T_{m}$) on the geographical variables such as latitude longitude and height above sea level was 0.958 and those for soil surface temperature amplitude(Tss) and phase constant(tp) were 0.889, 0.835, respectively. The relation between the apparent thermal diffusivity of the soil and the three geographical variables was not significant. The regression equations for the mean soil temperature($T_{m}$) soil surface temperature amplitude(Tss) and phase constant(tp) adopting latitude($X_{1}$) longitude($X_2$) height above sea level($X_3$) were as follows : $T_{m}$=50.049 - $0.849X_1$-$0.03131X_2$-$0.00622X_3$Tss=-6.970 +$0.584X_1$+$0.00530X_2$-$0.00214X_3$tp=70.353 - $1.404X_1$+ $0.02098X_2$+ $0.00312X_3$

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Impact of Change in Monsoonal Circulation Due to SST Warming on the North East Asian Monsoon: A Model Analysis Using Satellite Based Sub-Grid Hydrometeors

  • Bhattacharya, Anwesa;Park, Rae Seol;Kwon, Young Cheol
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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    • 제54권4호
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    • pp.545-561
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    • 2018
  • Over the North East Asia, extreme anomalous precipitation were observed in 2013 and 2014. During 2013 summer the precipitation was found to be higher (two standard deviation) than the climatological mean of the region; whereas during 2014, which was a borderline El Ni?o year, precipitation was found to be lower (one standard deviation). To understand the differences of these two anomalous years the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been used. The study found that low landsurface temperature and high sea-surface temperature over ocean caused a smaller land-sea contrast of surface temperature between East Asia and North West Pacific Ocean in 2014, which could have caused an eastward shift of mean monsoon circulation in that year compared to the circulation in 2013. Due to a change in the lower level circulation and wind field over East Asia the evaporation and moisture transport patterns became very different in those two years. In 2013, this study found high latent heat flux over Eastern China, which implies an increased surface evaporation over that region, and the moisture transported to the north by the mean monsoon circulation; whereas, there was no correlated transport of moisture to the North East Asia during 2014. The precipitable water over North East Asia has a stronger correlation with the latent heat flux over southern land region than that from Ocean region in the eastern side in both the years. A new approach is proposed to estimate the sub-grid scale hydrometeors from GRIMs, overestimated in the existing model.

해수면온도와 식생효과를 고려한 연안도시지역의 대기환경예측 (Atmospheric Environment Prediction to Consider SST and Vegetation Effect in Coastal Urban Region)

  • 지효은;이화운;원경미
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.375-388
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    • 2009
  • Numerical simulation is essential to indicate the flow of the atmosphere in the region with a complicated topography which consists of many mountains in the inland while it is neighboring the seashore. Such complicated topography produces land and sea breeze as the mesoscale phenomenon of meteorology which results from the effect of the sea and inland. In the mesoscale simulation examines, the change of the temperature in relation to the one of the sea surface for the boundary condition and, in the inland, the interaction between the atmosphere and land surface reflecting the characteristic of the land surface. This research developed and simulated PNULSM to reflect both the SST and vegetation effect as a bottom boundary for detailed meteorological numerical simulation in coastal urban area. The result from four experiments performed according to this protocol revealed the change of temperature field and wind field depending on each effect. Therefore, the lower level of establishment of bottom boundary suitable for the characteristic of the region is necessary to figure out the atmospheric flow more precisely, and if the characteristic of the surface is improved to more realistic conditions, it will facilitate the simulation of regional environment.

한국형수치예보모델 KIM의 폭염 예측 성능 검증 (Evaluation of Heat Waves Predictability of Korean Integrated Model)

  • 정지영;이은희;박혜진
    • 대기
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.277-295
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    • 2022
  • The global weather prediction model, Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has been in operation since April 2020 by the Korea Meteorological Administration. This study assessed the performance of heat waves (HWs) in Korea in 2020. Case experiments during 2018-2020 were conducted to support the reliability of assessment, and the factors which affect predictability of the HWs were analyzed. Simulated expansion and retreat of the Tibetan High and North Pacific High during the 2020 HW had a good agreement with the analysis. However, the model showed significant cold biases in the maximum surface temperature. It was found that the temperature bias was highly related to underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at surface, which was linked to cloudiness. KIM tended to overestimate nighttime clouds that delayed the dissipation of cloud in the morning, which affected the shortage of downward solar radiation. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture showed that cold bias and trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere produce favorable conditions for cloud formation over the Yellow Sea, which affected overestimation of cloud in downwind land. Sensitivity test was performed to reduce model bias, which was done by modulating moisture mixing parameter in the boundary layer scheme. Results indicated that the daytime temperature errors were reduced by increase in surface solar irradiance with enhanced cloud dissipation. This study suggested that not only the synoptic features but also the accuracy of low-level temperature and moisture condition played an important role in predicting the maximum temperature during the HWs in medium-range forecasts.