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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Evaluation of Heat Waves Predictability of Korean Integrated Model

한국형수치예보모델 KIM의 폭염 예측 성능 검증

  • Jung, Jiyoung (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) ;
  • Lee, Eun-Hee (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) ;
  • Park, Hye-Jin (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)
  • 정지영 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) ;
  • 이은희 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) ;
  • 박혜진 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단)
  • Received : 2022.07.06
  • Accepted : 2022.09.26
  • Published : 2022.12.31
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Abstract

The global weather prediction model, Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has been in operation since April 2020 by the Korea Meteorological Administration. This study assessed the performance of heat waves (HWs) in Korea in 2020. Case experiments during 2018-2020 were conducted to support the reliability of assessment, and the factors which affect predictability of the HWs were analyzed. Simulated expansion and retreat of the Tibetan High and North Pacific High during the 2020 HW had a good agreement with the analysis. However, the model showed significant cold biases in the maximum surface temperature. It was found that the temperature bias was highly related to underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at surface, which was linked to cloudiness. KIM tended to overestimate nighttime clouds that delayed the dissipation of cloud in the morning, which affected the shortage of downward solar radiation. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture showed that cold bias and trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere produce favorable conditions for cloud formation over the Yellow Sea, which affected overestimation of cloud in downwind land. Sensitivity test was performed to reduce model bias, which was done by modulating moisture mixing parameter in the boundary layer scheme. Results indicated that the daytime temperature errors were reduced by increase in surface solar irradiance with enhanced cloud dissipation. This study suggested that not only the synoptic features but also the accuracy of low-level temperature and moisture condition played an important role in predicting the maximum temperature during the HWs in medium-range forecasts.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 기상청 출연사업인 (재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단의 가변격자체계 기반 통합형수치예보모델 개발(KMA2020-02212)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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