• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.406-415
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• 2024

As the equipment of the military has become more advanced and expensive, the cost of securing spare parts is also constantly increasing along with the increase in equipment assets. In particular, forecasting demand for spare parts one of the important management tasks in the military, and the accuracy of these predictions is directly related to military operations and cost management. However, because the demand for spare parts is intermittent and irregular, it is often difficult to make accurate predictions using traditional statistical methods or a single statistical or machine learning model. In this paper, we propose a model that can increase the accuracy of demand forecasting for irregular patterns of spare parts demanding by using a combination of statistical and machine learning algorithm, and through experiments on Cheonma spare parts demanding data.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.123-123
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• 2020

The present study is aimed to correcting radar-based mean areal precipitation forecasts to improve urban flood predictions and uncertainty analysis of water levels contributed at each stage in the process. For this reason, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is used to reproduce three-hour mean areal precipitation (MAP) forecasts from the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE). The Gangnam urban catchment located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 24 heavy rainfall events, 22 grid points from the MAPLE system and the observed MAP values estimated from five ground rain gauges of KMA Automatic Weather System. The corrected MAP forecasts were input into the developed coupled 1D/2D model to predict water levels and relevant inundation areas. The results indicate the viability of the proposed framework for generating three-hour MAP forecasts and urban flooding predictions. For the analysis uncertainty contributions of the source related to the process, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis algorithm is applied. For this purpose, the uncertainty contributions of the stages such as QPE input, QPF MAP source LSTM-corrected source, and MAP input and the coupled model is discussed.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.293-309
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• 2018

The prediction of multimode flutter relies, to a larger extent than bimodal flutter, on accurate modeling of the self-excited forces since it is challenging to perform experimental validation by using aeroelastic tests for a multimode case. This paper sheds some light on the accuracy of predicted self-excited forces by comparing numerical predictions of self-excited forces with measured forces from wind tunnel tests considering the flutter vibration mode. The critical velocity and the corresponding flutter vibration mode of the Hardanger Bridge are first determined using the classical multimode approach. Then, a section model of the bridge is forced to undergo a motion corresponding to the flutter vibration mode at selected points along the bridge, during which the forces that act upon it are measured. The measured self-excited forces are compared with numerical predictions to assess the uncertainty involved in the modeling. The self-excited lift and pitching moment are captured in an excellent manner by the aerodynamic derivatives. The self-excited drag force is, on the other hand, not well represented since second-order effects dominate. However, the self-excited drag force is very small for the cross-section considered, making its influence on the critical velocity marginal. The self-excited drag force can, however, be of higher importance for other cross-sections.

• Journal of Electrochemical Science and Technology
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2018

Various Si-Fe-Al ternary alloys were prepared with the same amount of Si by the melt spinning technique. The feasibility of the capacity prediction approach based on the estimation of the active amount of Si using the phase diagram was practically examined and reported. These predictions were verified by the electrochemical test of fabricated coin cells and other characterization methods. The capacity prediction approach using the phase diagram might be a fundamental and efficient method to accelerate the practical application of Si-based alloys as the anode material for Li-ion batteries. The details on the prediction procedure were discussed.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.566-574
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• 2021

The process of cavitation involves generation, growth, coalescence, and collapse of small bubbles and is tremendously influenced by bubble-bubble interactions. To understand these interactions, a new cavitation model based on the transport equation is proposed herein. The modified Rayleigh-Plesset equation is analyzed to determine the bubble growth rate by assuming equal-sized spherical bubble clouds. The source term in the transport equation is then derived according to the bubble growth rate with the bubble-bubble interaction. The proposed model is validated by various test simulations, including microscopic bubble cloud evolution as well as macroscopical two- and three-dimensional cavitating flows. Compared with previous models, namely the Kunz and Zwart cavitation models, the newly proposed model does not require adjustable parameters and generally results in better predictions both microscopic and macroscopical cases. This model is more physical.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.265-280
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• 2016

A NLFE model was proposed to investigate the mechanical behavior of short columns, cast using plain or fibrous lightweight aggregate concrete (LWAC), and subjected to elevated temperatures of up to $700^{\circ}C$. The model was validated, before its predictions were extended to study the effect of other variables, not studied experimentally. The three-dimensional NLFE model was developed using ANSYS software and involved rational simulation of thermal mechanical behavior of plain and fibrous LWAC as well as longitudinal and lateral steel reinforcement. The prediction from the NLFE model of columns' mechanical behavior, as represented by the stress-strain diagram and its characteristics, compared well with the experimental results. The predictions of the proposed models, considering wide range of lateral reinforcement ratios, confirmed the behaviors observed experimentally and stipulated the importance of steel confinement in preserving post-heating mechanical properties of plain and fibrous LWAC columns, being subjected to high temperature.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.302-312
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• 2004

This work developed improved slip factor model and correction method to predict flow through impeller in forward-curved centrifugal fan. Both steady and unsteady three-dimensional CFD analyses were performed to validate the slip factor model and the correction method. The results show that the improved slip factor model presented in this paper could provide more accurate predictions for forward-curved centrifugal impeller than the other slip factor models since the present model takes into account the effect of blade curvature. The correction method is provided to predict mass-averaged absolute circumferential velocity at the exit of impeller by taking account of blockage effects induced by the large-scale backflow near the front plate and flow separation within blade passage. The comparison with CFD results also shows that the improved slip factor model coupled with the present correction method provides accurate predictions for mass-averaged absolute circumferential velocity at the exit of impeller near and above the flow rate of peak total pressure coefficient.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제15권7호
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• pp.889-894
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• 2001

In this study, the performances of various turbulence closure models are evaluated in the calculation of a transonic flow over axisymmetric bump. k-$\varepsilon$, explicit algebraic stress, and two Reynolds stress models, i.e., GL model proposed by Gibson & Launder and SSG model proposed by Speziale, Sarkar and Gatski, are chosen as turbulence closure models. SSG Reynolds stress model gives best predictions for pressure coefficients and the location of shock. The results with GL model also show quite accurate prediction of pressure coefficients down-stream of shock wave. However, in the predictions of mean velocities and turbulent stresses, the results are not so satisfactory as in the prediction of pressure coefficients.

• 소성∙가공
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.366-371
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• 2012

Atomistic simulations have become useful tools for exploring new insights in materials science, but the length and time scale that can be handled with atomistic simulations are seriously limiting their practical applications. In order to make meaningful quantitative predictions, atomistic simulations are necessarily combined with higher-scale modeling. The present research is thus concerned with the development of a multi-scale model and its application to the prediction of the mechanical properties of body-centered cubic(BCC) iron with an emphasis on the coupling of atomistic molecular dynamics with meso-scale discrete dislocation dynamics modeling. In order to achieve predictive multi-scale simulations, it is necessary to properly incorporate atomistic details into the meso-scale approach. This challenge is handled with the proposed hierarchical information passing strategy from atomistic to meso-scale by obtaining material properties and dislocation mobility. Finally, this fundamental and physics-based meso-scale approach is employed for quantitative predictions of the mechanical response of single crystal iron.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제31권6호
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• pp.294-301
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• 2015

In this paper, we predict the rotordynamic force coefficients of tilting pad journal bearings (TPJBs) with rocker-back pivots, and we compare the predictions to recently published predictions and test data. The present TPJB model considers the rocker-back pivot stiffness calculated based on the Hertzian contact-stress theory, which is nonlinear with the application of a force . For the five-pad TPJB in load-between-pad and load-on-pad configurations, the predictions show the pressure- and film-thickness distributions, the deflection and stiffness of the individual pivots, and bearing stiffness and damping coefficients. The minimum film thickness and peak pressure occur at the bottom pad on which the applied load is directed. Because of the preload, the pres- sure is positive even at the upper pad in the opposite direction to the applied load. The pivot deflection and stiff- ness are maximum at the bottom pad that receives the heaviest pressure load. The predicted stiffness coefficients increase as the static load and rotor speed increase, while the damping coefficients decrease as the rotor speed increases, but increase as the static load increases. In general, the predicted stiffness coefficients agree well with the test data. The predicted damping coefficients overestimate the test data, particularly for large static loads. In general, the current predictive model considering the pivot stiffness improves the accuracy of the rotordynamic performance compared to previously reported models.