• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.19-24
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• 2017

This paper present a performance evaluation scenarios to assess the safety performance of autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system for cyclist collision. To guarantee the safety performance of AEB for cyclist, AEB system should be tested in various scenarios which can be occurred in real driving condition. For this, real-traffic car-to-cyclist collision data are analyzed to classify the real traffic collision scenarios. Using this information, typical car-to-cyclist collision scenarios are selected. Also, in order to develop the detail features of these collision scenarios, several accident cases related with these scenarios are explained. Based on these information, test scenarios which can describe the car-to-cyclist collisions occurred in Korea are proposed. For practicality and feasibility of the test scenarios, proposed scenarios should be designed to assess the safety performance of AEB system effectively. For this, some test scenarios are combined or removed based on the consideration about the effectiveness of each scenario to the assessment of the performance of AEB system. To confirm that the proposed test scenarios are realistic and physically meaningful, simulation is conducted using simple AEB system in proposed test scenarios.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.1765-1775
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• 2019

Multiple spurious operations (MSOs) mean multiple fire induced circuit faults causing an undesired operation of one or more systems or components. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) of the United States published NEI 00-01 as guidelines for solving MSOs. And this guideline includes MSO scenarios of pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR). Nuclear power plant operators in U.S. analyzed MSOs under MSO scenarios included in NEI 00-01 and operators of PWRs in Korea also analyzed MSOs under the scenarios of NEI 00-01. As there are no pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) in the United States, MSO scenarios of PHWRs are not included in the NEI 00-01 and any feasible scenarios have not been developed. This paper developed MSO scenarios which can be applied to PHWRs by reviewing the 63 MSO scenarios included in NEI 00-01. This study found that seven scenarios out of the 63 MSO scenarios can be applied and three more scenarios need to be developed.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.13-19
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• 2017

This paper presents safety assessment scenarios for cyclist autonomous emergency braking(AEB) system. To assess the safety performance of AEB in real traffic situation with limited number of scenarios, scenario should reflect the characteristics of real traffic collision cases. For this, statistic data of real traffic car-to-cyclist collision in Korea are analyzed. Many types of accidents are listed and categorized based on the movement of vehicle and cycle just before the collision. Then, the characteristics, main issues and limitations of each scenarios are discussed. Not only the test scenario itself but also the cost and time for the test are very important issues for the test scenarios to actually repeat the test for various systems. Also, the performance of AEB can be effected by the algorithm of AEB and the technical limitation of the sensors and hardwares. Therefore, required number of tests, possibility of dummy destruction and other technical issues are discussed for each scenarios. Based on these information, typical scenarios are selected. Also, using this information, vehicle speed range, cyclist speed and collision point are established. Proposed scenarios are verified and modified based on the vehicle test results. vehicle test was evaluated 5 times for each scenarios. Based on this results, final test scenarios are modified and proposed.

• Journal of Information Technology Application
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.91-108
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• 2001

Participatory Design (PD) community recognized that identification of use case scenarios describing possible uses of the future system is beneficial for users to identify their system requirements. However, brainstorming is a typical methodology for users to create use case scenarios during PD session, which heavily depend on the people skill and experiences of the analysts. The objective of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for automatic generation of requirement scenarios. Automatically generated scenarios serves as a menu of the possible user requirements from which user group can start to generate ideas about their requirements. The convergent approach taken here is novel in that the generated scenarios describe system requirements as well as the business process requirements in which the system operates. A context-sensitive grammar is used to generate the context relevant requirement scenarios.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.539-546
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• 2001

Systematic procedure of developing radionuclide release scenarios was established based on FEP list and Interaction Matrix for near-surface LILW repository. FEPs were screened by experts＇review in terms of domestic situation and combined into scenarios on the basis of Interaction Matrix analysis. Under the assumption of design scenario, The system domain was divided into three sections: Near-field, Far-field and Biosphere. Sub-scenarios for each section were developed, and then scenarios for entire system were built up with sub-scenarios of each section. Finally, sixteen design scenarios for near-surface repository were evaluated A reference scenario and other noteworthy scenarios were selected through experts＇scenario screening.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.6-12
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• 2017

Regulation for the testing and operation of automated vehicles on public roadways has been recently developed all over the world. For example, the licensing standards and the evaluation technology for automated vehicles have been proposed in California, Nevada and EU. But specific safety evaluation scenarios for automated vehicles have not been proposed yet. This paper presents safety evaluation scenarios for extraordinary service permission of automated vehicles on highways. A total of seven scenarios are selected in consideration of safety priority and real traffic situation. Six scenarios are relevant with lane keeping and one scenario is relevant with lane change. All scenarios are developed based on existing ADAS evaluation scenarios and repeated simulation of automated vehicle algorithm. Safety evaluation factors as well as scenarios are developed. The safety factors are based on existing ADAS ISO requirements, ADAS safety factors and current traffic regulations. For the scenarios, a hunter vehicle is needed in addition to automated vehicle evaluated. The hunter vehicle performs multiple roles like preceding vehicle, cut-in vehicle and so on. The hunter vehicle is also automated vehicle equipped with high performance GPS, radar and Lidar. All the scenarios can be implemented by driving a lap on a KATRI ITS test track. These scenarios and safety evaluation factors are investigated via both a computer simulation and an experimental vehicle test on the test track. The experimental vehicle test was conducted with two automated vehicles, which are the evaluated vehicle and the hunter vehicle.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.75-80
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• 2003

This paper presents a set of typical pseudo-accident scenarios related to major equipments in petrochemical plants, which would be useful for performing such quantitative risk analysis techniques as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, etc. These typical scenarios address what the main hazard of each equipment might be and how the accident might develop from an "initiating event". The proposed set of accident scenarios consists of total thirteen (13) scenarios specific for five (5) major equipments like reactor, distillation column, etc., and has been determined and screened out of one hundred and twenty-five (125) potential accident scenarios that were generated by performing semi-quantitative risk analysis practically for twenty-five (25) petrochemical processes, considering advices from the operation experts. It is assumed that with simple consideration or incorporation of plant-specific conditions only, the proposed accident scenarios could be easily reorganized or adapted for the relevant process with less time and labor by the safety engineers concerned in the petrochemical industries.ndustries.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.3336-3346
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• 2022

In general, a number of severe accident scenarios derived from Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are typically grouped into several categories to efficiently evaluate their potential impacts on the public with the assumption that scenarios within the same group have similar source term characteristics. To date, however, grouping by similar source terms has been completely reliant on qualitative methods such as logical trees or expert judgements. Recently, an exhaustive simulation approach has been developed to provide quantitative information on the source terms of a large number of severe accident scenarios. With this motivation, this paper proposes a machine learning-based categorization method based on exhaustive simulation for grouping scenarios with similar accident consequences. The proposed method employs clustering with an autoencoder for grouping unlabeled scenarios after dimensionality reductions and feature extractions from the source term data. To validate the suggested method, source term data for 658 severe accident scenarios were used. Results confirmed that the proposed method successfully characterized the severe accident scenarios with similar behavior more precisely than the conventional grouping method.