• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario simulation and prediction

검색결과 63건 처리시간 0.023초

System dynamic modeling and scenario simulation on Beijing industrial carbon emissions

  • Wen, Lei;Bai, Lu;Zhang, Ernv
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.355-364
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    • 2016
  • Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

Dynamic performance prediction of a Supercritical oil firing boiler - Load Runback simulation in a 650MWe thermal power plant (초임계 오일 연소 보일러의 동특성 예측 연구 - 650MWe급 화력발전소의 Load Runback 모사)

  • Yang, Jongin;Kim, Jungrae
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국연소학회 2014년도 제49회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 초록집
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    • pp.19-20
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    • 2014
  • Boiler design should be desinged to maximize thermal efficiency of the system under imposed load requirement and a boiler should be validated for transient operation. If a proper prediction is possible on the transient behavior and transient characteristics of a boiler, one may asses the performance of boiler component, control logics and operation procedures. In this work, dynamic modeling method of boiler is presented and dynamic simulation of load runback scenario was carried out on suprecritical oil-firing boiler.

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Strong Ground Motion Simulation at Seismic Stations of Metropolises in South Korea by Scenario Earthquake on the Causative Fault of the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake (2016년 경주지진 유발단층 시나리오 지진에 의한 국내 광역 도시 지진관측소에서의 강진동 모사)

  • Choi, Hoseon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2020
  • The empirical Green's function method is applied to the foreshock and the mainshock of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake to simulate strong ground motions of the mainshock and scenario earthquake at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, respectively. To identify the applicability of the method in advance, the mainshock is simulated, assuming the foreshock as the empirical Green's function. As a result of the simulation, the overall shape, the amplitude of PGA, and the duration and response spectra of the simulated seismic waveforms are similar with those of the observed seismic waveforms. Based on this result, a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of Gyeongju earthquake with a moment magnitude 6.5 is simulated, assuming that the mainshock serves as the empirical Green's function. As a result, the amplitude of PGA and the duration of simulated seismic waveforms are significantly increased and extended, and the spectral amplitude of the low frequency band is relatively increased compared with that of the high frequency band. If the empirical Green's function method is applied to several recent well-recorded moderate earthquakes, the simulated seismic waveforms can be used as not only input data for developing ground motion prediction equations, but also input data for creating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

Simulation of Water Pollution Accident with Water Quality Model (수질모형을 이용한 수질오염사고의 모의분석)

  • Choi, Hyun Gu;Park, Jun Hyung;Han, Kun Yeun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2014
  • Depending on the change of lifestyle and the improvement of people's living standards and rapid industrialization, urbanization of recent, demand for water is increasing rapidly. So emissions of domestic wastewater and various industrial waste water has increased, and water quality is worsening day by day. Therefore, in order to provide a measure against the occurrence of water pollution accident, this study was tried to simulate water pollution accident. This study simulated 2008 Gimcheon phenol accident using 1,2-D model, and analyze scenario for prevent of water pollution accident. Consequently the developed 1-D model presents high reappearance when compared with 2-D model, and has been able to obtain results in a short simulation run time. This study will contribute to the water pollution incident response prediction system and water quality analysis in the future.

An Analytical Study on the Prediction of Indoor Air Quality and the Reduction of Air Conditioning Load in Bio Safety Level 3 Laboratory (생물안전 3등급시설의 공기환경 예측 및 공조부하 절감에 대한 해석)

  • Hong, Jin Kwan;Park, Hyun Jin
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • 제24권11호
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    • pp.813-822
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the multizone simulation for biosafety of BSL3 lab. and energy simulation are carried out simultaneously by using linked model of CONTAM and TRNSYS. In BSL3 lab., annual energy consumption is approximately five to ten times more than the magnitude of the office building. This is because required air change rate is extremely large and it is difficult to maintain room pressure difference efficiently. To maintain pressure difference between laboratory rooms through sealing condition of doors and proper airflow control is significant. In this study, to predict indoor environment of the BSL3 lab.(Influenza A research lab.), the multizone simulation for four kinds of biohazard scenario is also performed as part of risk assessment. Multizone and energy simulation results by using linked model show that these approaches are used as a tool for the energy efficient design and operation method for the safer BSL3 lab. facilities.

Stochastic Strong Ground Motion Simulation at South Korean Metropolises' Seismic Stations Based on the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake Causative Fault (2016년 경주지진 원인단층의 시나리오 지진에 의한 국내 광역도시 지진관측소에서의 추계학적 강진동 모사)

  • Choi, Hoseon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2021
  • The stochastic method is applied to simulate strong ground motions at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, creating an earthquake scenario based on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake. Input parameters are established according to what has been revealed so far for the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake, while the ratio of differences in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions is assumed to be an adjustment factor. The calculations confirm the applicability and reproducibility of strong ground motion simulations based on the relatively small bias in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions. Based on this result, strong ground motions by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake with moment magnitude 6.5 are simulated, assuming that the ratios of its fault length to width are 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. The results are similar to those of the empirical Green's function method. Although actual site response factors of seismic stations should be supplemented later, the simulated strong ground motions can be used as input data for developing ground motion prediction equations and input data for calculating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

Study of Situation Prediction Simulation for Navigation Information System of Ship (선박의 항행정보시스템을 위한 상황 예측 시뮬레이션 방안 연구)

  • Yi, Mi-Ra
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2010
  • Modern marine navigation requires officers on the bridge to monitor a torrent of data on both the insides and outsides of the ship from numerous useful devices. But despite these tools, navigators can still find it difficult to make a safe decision for two reasons: one is that too much data if provided too quickly tends to cause fatigue and overwhelm the officer, and the other is that any inconsistency across data from several different types of devices can lead to confusion. Indeed, the fact remains that the many marine accidents can be attributed to human error, and hence there is a strong need for decision-support tools for marine navigation. One technique of providing decision support is through the use of simulation to evaluate or predict system dynamics over time using an accurate model. This paper, as a simulation method for risk prediction for a navigation safety information system of ship, suggests a navigation prediction simulation system using various knowledge bases and discrete event simulation methodology, and supports the validity of the system through the examples of components in a restricted navigation situation scenario.

A Study on Scenario-based Urban Flood Prediction using G2D Flood Analysis Model (G2D 침수해석 모형을 이용한 시나리오 기반 도시 침수예측 연구)

  • Hui-Seong Noh;Ki-Hong Park
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.488-494
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, scenario-based urban flood prediction for the entire Jinju city was performed, and a simulation domain was constructed using G2D as a 2-dimensional urban flood analysis model. The domain configuration is DEM, and the land cover map is used to set the roughness coefficient for each grid. The input data of the model are water level, water depth and flow rate. In the simulation of the built G2D model, virtual rainfall (3 mm/10 min rainfall given to all grids for 5 hours) and virtual flow were applied. And, a GPU acceleration technique was applied to determine whether to run the flood analysis model in the target area. As a result of the simulation, it was confirmed that the high-resolution flood analysis time was significantly shortened and the flood depth for visual flood judgment could be created for each simulation time.

A Study on the Prediction of Indoor Environment in Bio Safety Level 3 Laboratory According to Biohazard Scenario (생물안전 3등급(BSL3)시설의 생물재해 시나리오에 따른 실내 공기환경예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyun-Jin;Hong, Jin-Kwan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • 제22권11호
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    • pp.745-750
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    • 2010
  • Since the implementation of the LMO Law in Korea, the importance of the design qualification of BSL3 lab. is emphasizing. In this study, multizone simulation for three kind of biohazard scenarios using CONTAM is performed for design qualification of BSL3 lab. Also, in the case of unexpected spread of contaminants such as Influenza A virus(H1N1) in BL3 zone, the design qualification is carried out for diffusion and decontamination of contaminants according to differential pressure of BSL3 anteroom and door area of BSL3 lab. Also, in this study, appropriateness of laboratory room differential pressure and air flow rate to maintain pressure difference between laboratory rooms, and energy consumption due to air change rate variation according to door area in BL3 lab. Simulation results show that these approach methods are used as a tool for the design and verification of BL3 lab.

A Study on Scenario to establish Coastal Inundation Prediction Map due to Storm Surge (폭풍해일에 의한 해안침수예상도 작성 시나리오 연구)

  • Moon, Seung-Rok;Kang, Tae-Soon;Nam, Soo-Yong;Hwang, Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.492-501
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    • 2007
  • Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and extreme weather have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline retreat. A storm surge is an onshore gush of water associated with a tow pressure weather system, typically in typhoon season. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height and inundation due to the irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon. To provide a new scheme of typhoon damage prediction model, the scenario which changes the central pressure, the maximum wind radius, the track and the proceeding speed by corresponding previous typhoon database, was composed. The virtual typhoon scenario database was constructed with individual scenario simulation and evaluation, in which it extracted the result from the scenario database of information of the hereafter typhoon and information due to climate change. This virtual typhoon scenario database will apply damage prediction information about a typhoon. This study performed construction and analysis of the simulation system with the storm surge/coastal inundation model at Masan coastal areas, and applied method for predicting using the scenario of the storm surge.