• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.29-48
• /
• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Design Studies Conference
• /
• 2002.05b
• /
• pp.150-151
• /
• 2002

• Journal of Information Management
• /
• v.43 no.2
• /
• pp.169-197
• /
• 2012

Patents are an up-to-date and reliable source of technological knowledge, and thus patent analysis has been considered to be a necessary step for identifying evolving technological trends and planning technology strategies. Although there exist many research papers and technical reports concerning patent analysis, few empirical studies on planning technology strategies for uncertain futures from a national or company perspective have been rarely conducted. Therefore, this paper aims presenting a procedure and its practical case of planning future technology strategies by incorporating patent analysis and scenario planning. Using patents related to polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells, this paper developed technology strategies corresponding to future scenarios. We expect that the proposed method and case study can assist knowledge services of experts in the long-term technology strategy planning process.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.71-85
• /
• 2014

This study proposes the future strategy of semiconductor companies corresponding to the growth of cloud computing. Cloud computing is the delivery of IT resources such as hardware and software as a service rather than a product, and it is expected to significantly change the IT market. By employing the scenario planning method, this study develops a total of eight scenario cases, and presents the three possible scenarios including the best market, the worst market, and the neutral market scenario. This study suggests the future strategy of semiconductor companies based on the best market scenario (increasing firms' IT expenditure, increasing the complexity and performance of devices, the frequent replacement of devices). The suggested future strategy of semiconductor includes that the semiconductor companies need to strengthen their price competitiveness, secure the next generation technologies, and develop the better capability for market prediction with the growth of cloud computing. This study will help semiconductor companies set up the strategy direction of technology development, and understand the connections between cloud computing and the memory semiconductor industry. This study has practical implications for semiconductor industry to prepare for the future of cloud computing.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.861-872
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study was to establish a complex disaster scenario that can comprehensively consider various disaster situations that may occur in the utility tunnel. Method: In order to comprehensively consider the correlation between disasters, a composite disaster scenario was derived from a combination of damage factors, respectively. A risk assessment was performed in order to derive the priorities of the scenarios. And based on the results, the priorities of complex disaster scenarios were set. Result: Based on the disaster cases in the utility tunnel, a plan was prepared for complex disaster scenarios centered on damage. A complex disaster scenario was specified using a semi-quantitative evaluation method for single and multiple disaster factors such as fire, flooding, and earthquake. Conclusion: The composite disaster scenario derived from this study can be used for the prevention and preparation of damage when the precursor symptoms of a disaster are detected. In addition, the results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for preparing strategic plans and preparing complex disaster response technologies to induce rapid response and recovery in case of emergency disasters.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.1259-1273
• /
• 2012

As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea for national information with electronic Government have a variety of changes with big data. So this study is about development for national information and e-government of S. Korea with public data as big data analysed by the application of scenario planning. And then this research focused on the strategy consulting of national information with e-Government of S. Korea for utilization of public data as big data analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. As a result, the future policy for utilization of public data as big data for national information with electronic government of S. Korea is to further spur the development of technology for linked data with semantic web for 'understanding of machine' than 'understanding of man'.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.1245-1258
• /
• 2012

This study is about development of technology for electronic government of S. Korea with cloud computing analysed by the application of scenario planning. As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea for e-Government have a variety of changes with cloud computing service. So this research focused on the strategy consulting of e-Government of S. Korea with development of cloud computing technology analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. As a result, the future policy for development of cloud computing technology for electronic government of S. Korea is to further spur the development of technology for hard ware and internet data center as SLA(Service Level Agreement) and service provisioning, more improvement of level of technology with soft ware solution as resource virtualization, open API(Application Programming Interface).

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.301-319
• /
• 2011

This research focused on the strategy consulting of the 'Pankyo Technovalley' for the formation of the innovation clusters The study was performed based on both theoretical study and related qualitative study approaches. Particularly, 'scenario planning' as a foresight method was used for the strategy formulation of the innovation clusters. The major determinants for the success of the formation of the innovation clusters can be summarized as follows; the enhancement of the service of the host institution of clusters, the alignment of the national cluster policy with the strategy of the host institution and the networks of the clusters. In terms of the needs of times, this study regarding the strategy for the formation of the innovation clusters is anticipated to be a good reference for the R&D organizations and technology cluster participants in coming years.

• Information Systems Review
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.173-187
• /
• 2016

This study on the social effects of Internet of Things (IoTs) provides an overview of future job prospects through the scenario planning approach, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that IoTs will bring in the future. IoTs and the related field of technological innovations have become increasingly important in both academic and business communities in the past few years because of computing power breakthrough and its price drop. IoTs enables people to deal with routine works efficiently and challenges them even in non-routine and/or cognitive tasks, which are considered a unique area for individuals. The scenario planning analysis helps us to define the uncertain boundary and to estimate the potential opportunities and inherent threats to provide decision makers with a mind map on how the development of IoTs can influence employment. To assess the potential effects on jobs described in our scenarios, we briefly examine the local structure of employment and discuss which careers are expected to decline or grow in particular among the 52 standard occupational classifications in Korea.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.129-147
• /
• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.