• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.411-425
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• 2017

Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.12-23
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• 2016

For a successful accomplishment of Carbon Capture Sequestration (CCS) projects, appropriate injection conditions should be designed and optimized for site specific geological conditions. In this study, we evaluated the effect of injection conditions such as injection temperature and injection rate on the geomechanical stability of CCS system in terms of TOUGH-FLAC simulator, which is one of the well-known T-H-M coupled analysis methods. The stability of the storage system was assessed by a shear slip potential of the pre-existing fractures both in a reservoir and caprock, expressed by mobilized friction angle and Mohr stress circle. We demonstrated that no tensile fracturing was induced even in the cold CO2 injection, where the injected CO2 temperature is much lower than that of the reservoir and tensile thermal stress is generated, but shear slip of the fractures in the reservoir may occur. We also conducted a scenario analysis by varying injected CO2 volume per unit time, and found out that it was when the injection rate was decreasing in a step-wise that showed the least potential of a shear slip.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.165-182
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• 2009

This study analyzed the economic analysis on the Cambodian inland waterway from Phnom Penh to Chong Kneas. The social discount rate of 3.5% was applied for the cost and benefit of projects and converted to the current values in 2009. The benefits were supposed as the triangle distribution with minimum, mode, and maximum value corresponding to pessimistic, moderate and optimistic prospect separately. And the distributions of costs were the normal. As the result of probabilistic simulations, the average of B/C for scenario A showed relatively the highest with 0.25 and its 90% confidence interval 0.16~0.35. The average B/C of scenario B is 0.10 with the 90% confidence interval 0.06~0.13 and the one of scenario C is 0.15 with 90% confidence interval 0.12~0.19. Therefore it was concluded as low economic feasibility to install inland waterway aids to navigation along the surveyed waterway. However, the performance of the project should be determined by its political analysis as well as the economic.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.13-22
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• 2023

As an alternative to environmental pollution generated from fossil fuels currently in use, research is being actively conducted to use hydrogen that does not cause air pollution. As fire and explosion accidents caused by hydrogen leakage have occurred until recently, research on safety is needed to commercialize hydrogen on ships, which are special environments. In this study, a seasonal alternative scenario for each season and the worst scenario were assumed in the event of a leakage accident while a hydrogen fuel cell propulsion ship equipped with a hydrogen storage tank was navigating at JangSaengPo port in Ulsan. In order to consider environmental variables, the damage impact range was derived through ALOHA and probit analysis based on the annual average weather data for 2021 by the Korea Meteorological Administration and on geographic information data from the National Statistical Office. Radiation showed a wider damage range than that of Overpressure and Flame in both the alternative and worst-case scenarios, and as a result of probit analysis, a fatality rate of 99% was confirmed in all areas.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.349-367
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• 2013

In MANET, the AODV routing protocol with on-demand method has a problem in large control packet overhead. In order to improve this, we first need a comprehensive analysis of correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance of AODV. Selected parameters based on this analysis make it enable to be a more accurate and fair performance analysis, as well as to reduce the time and effort when constructing a scenario for performance analysis. In this paper, various scenarios are configured to apply AODV by varying the values of factors affecting the performance with network simulator QualNet 5.0, and then the results are analysed using performance metrics proposed by IETF MANET working group. This paper also founds a correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance for AODV routing protocol, choosing the values of factors that represent many of the most maximum and minimum values of each performance metrics, and proposes optimal simulation parameters for a more accurate performance evaluation of routing protocols with minimal scenario in experiments. Next, performance comparison of AODV, DSR and DYMO routing protocols based on the proposed simulation parameters is shown which provides a comparative analysis on the performance of on-demand routing protocols. Results of this paper could be very useful for the researcher or service provider who wants to find nice simulation environment or select a proper routing protocol.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.185-202
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• 2000

Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.431-453
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• 2013

The principal purpose of this paper is to present a novel two phases rational scenario applied in constructing an offshore monopod platform; in which the two phases are the all-ground horizontal construction phase and the post-construction phase. Concerning the all-ground construction phase, a brief investigation of its different stages, i.e., pre-fabrication, fabrication, pre-assembling, positioning, assembling, and surface finishing is introduced. The important practical aspects of such construction phase are investigated without going into the nitty-gritty of the details involved therein. Concerning the post-construction phase, a clear investigation of its sequential stages, i.e., lifting, moving and up-righting is introduced. A finite element model (FEM) of the monopod platform is created to perform the structural analysis necessary to decide the suspension points/devices and the handling scenario during the various stages of the post-construction phase on a rational wise. Such structural analysis is performed within the framework of the three dimensional quasi-static modeling and analysis aiming at simulating the realistic handling condition, and hence introducing a reliable physical interpretation of the numerical results. For the whole effort to be demonstrated efficiently, the results obtained are analyzed, the conclusions are presented, and few related recommendations are suggested.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.278-287
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• 2007

Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.536-540
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• 2006

The purposes of this study were 1) to analyze the correlation between Word-of-Mouth(WOM) message sender credibility and WOM effect and 2) to analyze the differences of WOM message sender creadibility and WOM effect in off-line and on-line WOM communication. The messages were created as a form of scenario for this study. Respondents were asked to evaluate the message sender credibility and predict WOM behaviors after reading given scenario. The questionnaires were distributed to 200 customers and a total of 175 questionnaires were used for analysis(87.5%). The statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS Win(12.0) for descriptive analysis, paired t-test, factor analysis, correlation analysis. The positive off-line WOM message sender was considered as more credible(p<.001) than on-line WOM message sender. 'Message sender credibility' is correlated with 'attitude formation' in both channels, but 'reliable' factor of 'credibility' variable is not significantly correlated with 'attitude change'.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.124-134
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• 2011

To make popular the NEV(Neighborhood Electric Vehicles) uses, it must be considered the supply of infrastructure and the political decision for NEV. However, the guidelines of infrastructure for NEV are not prepared. The guidelines of infrastructure for NEV should be performed in many research and case. The purpose of this study is to reveal the influence of NEV on the two-lane highway traffic flows by TWOPAS simulation model. The main items to check the influence are Average Travel speed, Percent Time Spent Following and Total Delay. The scenario were setup by traffic volume. And the NEV percentages are changed from 1% ~ 30%. The scenario 1 which traffic volume are 650veh/h and the scenario 4 which traffic volume are 2,600veh/h are less influenced by NEV, compare to scenario 2, scenario 3. Because the scenario 1 is more free to make passing other cars and Scenario 4 is fully saturated with existing traffic volumes. The urban two-lane highway which has much traffic volume and the rural two-lane highway which has little traffic volume has affinity for NEV than the other two-lane highway.