• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scale Development

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Minimizing Estimation Errors of a Wind Velocity Forecasting Technique That Functions as an Early Warning System in the Agricultural Sector (농업기상재해 조기경보시스템의 풍속 예측 기법 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Park, Joo-Hyeon;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.63-77
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    • 2022
  • Our aim was to reduce estimation errors of a wind velocity model used as an early warning system for weather risk management in the agricultural sector. The Rural Development Administration (RDA) agricultural weather observation network's wind velocity data and its corresponding estimated data from January to December 2020 were used to calculate linear regression equations (Y = aX + b). In each linear regression, the wind estimation error at 87 points and eight time slots per day (00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09.00, 12.00, 15.00, 18.00, and 21:00) is the dependent variable (Y), while the estimated wind velocity is the independent variable (X). When the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5, the regression equation was used as the wind velocity correction equation. In contrast, when the correlation coefficient was less than 0.5, the mean error (ME) at the corresponding points and time slots was substituted as the correction value instead of the regression equation. To enable the use of wind velocity model at a national scale, a distribution map with a grid resolution of 250 m was created. This objective was achieved b y performing a spatial interpolation with an inverse distance weighted (IDW) technique using the regression coefficients (a and b), the correlation coefficient (R), and the ME values for the 87 points and eight time slots. Interpolated grid values for 13 weather observation points in rural areas were then extracted. The wind velocity estimation errors for 13 points from January to December 2019 were corrected and compared with the system's values. After correction, the mean ME of the wind velocities reduced from 0.68 m/s to 0.45 m/s, while the mean RMSE reduced from 1.30 m/s to 1.05 m/s. In conclusion, the system's wind velocities were overestimated across all time slots; however, after the correction model was applied, the overestimation reduced in all time slots, except for 15:00. The ME and RMSE improved b y 33% and 19.2%, respectively. In our system, the warning for wind damage risk to crops is driven by the daily maximum wind speed derived from the daily mean wind speed obtained eight times per day. This approach is expected to reduce false alarms within the context of strong wind risk, by reducing the overestimation of wind velocities.

Development and Testing of the Model of Health Promotion Behavior in Predicting Exercise Behavior

  • O'Donnell, Michael P.
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.31-61
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    • 2000
  • Introduction. Despite the fact that half of premature deaths are caused by unhealthy lifestyles such as smoking tobacco, sedentary lifestyle, alcohol and drug abuse and poor nutrition, there are no theoretical models which accurately explain these health promotion related behaviors. This study tests a new model of health behavior called the Model of Health Promotion Behavior. This model draws on elements and frameworks suggested by the Health Belief Model, Social Cognitive Theory, the Theory of Planned Action and the Health Promotion Model. This model is intended as a general model of behavior but this first test of the model uses amount of exercise as the outcome behavior. Design. This study utilized a cross sectional mail-out, mail-back survey design to determine the elements within the model that best explained intentions to exercise and those that best explained amount of exercise. A follow-up questionnaire was mailed to all respondents to the first questionnaire about 10 months after the initial survey. A pretest was conducted to refine the questionnaire and a pilot study to test the protocols and assumptions used to calculate the required sample size. Sample. The sample was drawn from 2000 eligible participants at two blue collar (utility company and part of a hospital) and two white collar (bank and pharmaceutical) companies located in Southeastern Michigan. Both white collar site had employee fitness centers and all four sites offered health promotion programs. In the first survey, 982 responses were received (49.1%) after two mailings to non-respondents and one additional mailing to secure answers to missing data, with 845 usable cases for the analyzing current intentions and 918 usable cases for the explaining of amount of current exercise analysis. In the follow-up survey, questionnaires were mailed to the 982 employees who responded to the initial survey. After one follow-up mailing to non-respondents, and one mailing to secure answers to missing data, 697 (71.0%) responses were received, with 627 (63.8%) usable cases to predict intentions and 673 (68.5%) usable cases to predict amount of exercise. Measures. The questionnaire in the initial survey had 15 scales and 134 items; these scales measured each of the variables in the model. Thirteen of the scales were drawn from the literature, all had Cronbach's alpha scores above .74 and all but three had scores above .80. The questionnaire in the second mailing had only 10 items, and measured only outcome variables. Analysis. The analysis included calculation of scale scores, Cronbach's alpha, zero order correlations, and factor analysis, ordinary least square analysis, hierarchical tests of interaction terms and path analysis, and comparisons of results based on a random split of the data and splits based on gender and employer site. The power of the regression analysis was .99 at the .01 significance level for the model as a whole. Results. Self efficacy and Non-Health Benefits emerged as the most powerful predictors of Intentions to exercise, together explaining approximately 19% of the variance in future Intentions. Intentions, and the interaction of Intentions with Barriers, with Support of Friends, and with Self Efficacy were the most consistent predictors of amount of future exercise, together explaining 38% of the variance. With the inclusion of Prior Exercise History the model explained 52% of the variance in amount of exercise 10 months later. There were very few differences in the variables that emerged as important predictors of intentions or exercise in the different employer sites or between males and females. Discussion. This new model is viable in predicting intentions to exercise and amount of exercise, both in absolute terms and when compared to existing models.

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Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

A Case Study on the Development of Environment Friendly Citrus Farming in Jeju - Focusing on Graduate Farms of Korea National College of Agriculture and Fisheries (제주 친환경 감귤 농업 발전을 위한 사례연구 - 한농대 졸업생 농가를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, S.K.;Kim, J.S.
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.37-53
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this research is to find what difficulties the agricultural successors, the Korea National College of Agriculture and Fisheries (KNCAF) graduates, face with in implementing eco-friendly agriculture in Jeju, and what solutions they can be provided with. This research, a case study on the basis of open-ended survey questions, has 6 cases out of 8 graduates who have or had implemented eco-friendly citrus farming. In Jeju, 24 graduates have involved in citrus farming. According to the case study, only one case was environment-friendly farming method at the pesticide-free level, and the others at organic farming level. All the cases have tried to alter main crops or to diversify management for coping with global climate change and market-opening. On analyzing operating cost to gain product of merchantable quality, it revealed that the environment-friendly farming method needs much more managing efforts than the conventional farming does. But to the contrary, the materials cost in the environment-friendly farming method was lower than in the conventional farming method. In the total production and the price, the environment-friendly farming was 20~50% lower and 10~50% higher than the conventional farming, respectively. Difficulties which the graduates confronted with in implementing the environment-friendly agriculture are as below. Firstly, many of the difficulties have resulted from lack of the environment-friendly farming techniques, and the high cost of farm scale improvement due to high price of land and topographical features of Jeju. Secondly, the agricultural successors, the KNCAF graduates, have trouble in obtaining approval of their parents to changeover from the conventional farming to the environment-friendly farming. Lastly, there is no advisory organizations and experts for environment-friendly farming in the given area. For shift to the environment-friendly farming, followings are needed. Agricultural Technology & Extension center, with cooperation of leading farms in environment-friendly farming, should have a key role in offering education and consults on the environment-friendly farming techniques. Also, this organization should inform rapidly the research results to the farmers, and their feed-back should be involved in the next research. Therefore, it is suggested that the forum called 'Environment-friendly Organic Farming Forum in Jeju' tentatively is organized.

Changes in North Korea's Financial System During the Kim Jong-un Era - Based on North Korean Literature (김정은 시대 북한의 금융제도 변화 - 북한 문헌 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Minjung;Mun, Sung Min
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.70-119
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    • 2021
  • This paper analyzes the changes in financial reform during the Kim Jong-un era based on North Korean literature. We find that North Korea has systematically and functionally separated the central bank from commercial banks since the Kim Jong-un era began. In addition, enterprises have been allowed to withdraw cash from bank accounts and make inter-enterprise cash payments. In other words, nowadays non-cash currencies with passive money can partially serve as active money with purchasing power. With the systematic and functional separation of the central bank and the commercial bank, the issuance of the central bank changed to a money supply method through the commercial bank, and changes in the currency distribution structure have allowed commercial bank's credit creation function to be implemented. This means that the banking system and the monetary·payment system of the socialist planned economy are changing in the way of the market economy. Reforms in the financial sector are believed to have been necessary to support changes in the economic system and to restore the function of the public financial sector. These changes have progressed in terms of the level of reform, but they are still considered similar to the period of the former Soviet Union's Perestroika or to the early period of China's reform and opening. Although North Korea's financial reform is superior in terms of enacting the banking law, it is insufficient in terms of realizing the functions of commercial banks. In addition, it is assessed that institutional constraints such as maintaining a planned economy, and the lack of confidence in public finances limit the effectiveness and development of the financial system. It should be noted that these results are based on literature published in North Korea. In other words, there is a limit in the fact that such recent changes have been carried out on a trial basis in some areas, or have been carried out in a full-scale manner with a blueprint, since Kim Jong-un's inauguration.

Rainfall image DB construction for rainfall intensity estimation from CCTV videos: focusing on experimental data in a climatic environment chamber (CCTV 영상 기반 강우강도 산정을 위한 실환경 실험 자료 중심 적정 강우 이미지 DB 구축 방법론 개발)

  • Byun, Jongyun;Jun, Changhyun;Kim, Hyeon-Joon;Lee, Jae Joon;Park, Hunil;Lee, Jinwook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.403-417
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    • 2023
  • In this research, a methodology was developed for constructing an appropriate rainfall image database for estimating rainfall intensity based on CCTV video. The database was constructed in the Large-Scale Climate Environment Chamber of the Korea Conformity Laboratories, which can control variables with high irregularity and variability in real environments. 1,728 scenarios were designed under five different experimental conditions. 36 scenarios and a total of 97,200 frames were selected. Rain streaks were extracted using the k-nearest neighbor algorithm by calculating the difference between each image and the background. To prevent overfitting, data with pixel values greater than set threshold, compared to the average pixel value for each image, were selected. The area with maximum pixel variability was determined by shifting with every 10 pixels and set as a representative area (180×180) for the original image. After re-transforming to 120×120 size as an input data for convolutional neural networks model, image augmentation was progressed under unified shooting conditions. 92% of the data showed within the 10% absolute range of PBIAS. It is clear that the final results in this study have the potential to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of existing real-world CCTV systems with transfer learning.

Development of disaster severity classification model using machine learning technique (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 재해강도 분류모형 개발)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Baek, Seonuk;Lee, Junhak;Kim, Kyungtak;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, natural disasters such as heavy rainfall and typhoons have occurred more frequently, and their severity has increased due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) currently uses the same criteria for all regions in Korea for watch and warning based on the maximum cumulative rainfall with durations of 3-hour and 12-hour to reduce damage. However, KMA's criteria do not consider the regional characteristics of damages caused by heavy rainfall and typhoon events. In this regard, it is necessary to develop new criteria considering regional characteristics of damage and cumulative rainfalls in durations, establishing four stages: blue, yellow, orange, and red. A classification model, called DSCM (Disaster Severity Classification Model), for the four-stage disaster severity was developed using four machine learning models (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost). This study applied DSCM to local governments of Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province province. To develop DSCM, we used data on rainfall, cumulative rainfall, maximum rainfalls for durations of 3-hour and 12-hour, and antecedent rainfall as independent variables, and a 4-class damage scale for heavy rain damage and typhoon damage for each local government as dependent variables. As a result, the Decision Tree model had the highest accuracy with an F1-Score of 0.56. We believe that this developed DSCM can help identify disaster risk at each stage and contribute to reducing damage through efficient disaster management for local governments based on specific events.

Demands of Education Programs for Evaluation of the Efficacy of Health Functional Foods (건강기능식품 기능성평가 교육요구도에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Sook;Kwon, O-Ran;Won, Hye-Suk;Kim, Joo-Hee;Kwak, Jin-Sook;Jeong, Se-Won;Hong, So-Young;Hong, Jin-Hwan;Lee, Hye-Young;Kim, Ji-Yeon;Kang, Yoon-Jung;Kim, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 2009
  • The principal objective of the present study was to survey the demands of an education program for evaluations of the efficacy of health functional foods. A questionnaire was developed and sent to 2,225 members of the Biofood Network Center. A total of 101 (4.6%) individuals responded, 54.5% of the respondents were male and 45.5% were female; the respondents' occupations (in order of prevalence) were as follows: company worker (48.5%)>researcher (27.7%)>student (13.9%)>professor (5.0%)>pharmacist (2%), and dietitian (2%). The businesses in which the respondents worked were (again in order of prevalence) as follows: research & development (64.4%)>marketing (11.9%)>consultation and education (5.9%)>manufacturing and others (17.9%). 41.6% of the respondents reported experience in businesses relevant to KFDA approval for functional ingredients and health functional foods. The results showed that 63.4% of the respondents had previously been educated about functional foods; the types of education program reported were (in order of prevalence): 'overview and acts of health functional food' (n=49)>'standards and specification for health functional food' (n=41)>'efficacy evaluation-human study' (n=24)>'safety evaluation' (n=21)>'efficacy evaluation-in vivo study' (n=13)>and 'others' (n=10). Respondents preferred off-line education programs (62.4%) to on-line programs (22.8%). The preferred duration of an educational program was '$2{\sim}3$ days: total $14{\sim}24$ hours' (30.7%); thus, short-term programs were favored. The primary requirements of a program, from the perspective of the learner, were as follows (scored on a 7-point scale); 'efficacy evaluation and case study-human study' (5.80 points)>'standards and specification for health functional food' (5.72 points)>safety evaluation' (5.7 points)>'overview and acts of health functional food' (5.67 points) and 'efficacy evaluation methods of health functional food by efficacy (intensive)' (5.67 points). Preference for functionality was as follows; 'body weight & body fat' (21.8%), 'immune function' (18.8%) > 'blood glucose' (10.9%). In summary, the educational demand for 'efficacy evaluation and case study' was highest among the curriculum options provided, and with regard to functionality, 'body weight & body fat', 'immune function' and 'skin care' were considered most important by respondents. These results differed among respondents with different jobs and duties, and this suggests that customized education programs for health functional food should be developed.

A Study on the Application of IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology Using Land Cover Map in Korea (토지피복지도를 활용한 IUCN 생태계유형분류 국내 적용)

  • Hee-Jung Sohn;Su-Yeon Won;Jeong-Eun Jeon;Eun-Hee Park;Do-Hee Kim;Sang-Hak Han;Young-Keun Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.209-220
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    • 2023
  • Over the past few centuries, widespread changes to natural ecosystems caused by human activities have severely threatened biodiversity worldwide. Understanding changes in ecosystems is essential to identifying and managing threats to biodiversity. In line with this need, the IUCN Council formed the IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology (GET) in 2019, taking into account the functions and types of ecosystems. The IUCN provides maps of 10 ecosystem groups and 108 ecological functional groups (EFGs) on a global scale. According to the type classification of IUCN GET ecosystems, Korea's ecosystem is classified into 8 types of Realm (level 1), 18 types of Biome (level 2), and 41 types of Group (level 3). GETs provided by IUCN have low resolution and often do not match the actual land status because it was produced globally. This study aimed to increase the accuracy of Korean IUCN GET type classification by using land cover maps and producing maps that reflected the actual situation. To this end, we ① reviewed the Korean GET data system provided by IUCN GET and ② compared and analyzed it with the current situation in Korea. We evaluated the limitations and usability of the GET through the process and then ③ classified Korea's new Get type reflecting the current situation in Korea by using the national data as much as possible. This study classified Korean GETs into 25 types by using land cover maps and existing national data (Territorial realm: 9, Freshwater: 9, Marine-territorial: 5, Terrestrial-freshwater: 1, and Marine-freshwater-territorial: 1). Compared to the existing map, "F3.2 Constructed lacustrine wetlands", "F3.3 Rice paddies", "F3.4 Freshwater aquafarms", and "T7.3 Plantations" showed the largest area reduction in the modified Korean GET. The area of "T2.2 Temperate Forests" showed the largest area increase, and the "MFT1.3 Coastal saltmarshes and reedbeds" and "F2.2 Small permanent freshwater lakes" types also showed an increase in GET area after modification. Through this process, the existing map, in which the sum of all EFGs in the existing GET accounted for 8.33 times the national area, was modified so that the total sum becomes 1.22 times the national area using the land cover map. This study confirmed that the existing EFG, which had small differences by type and low accuracy, was improved and corrected. This study is significant in that it produced a GET map of Korea that met the GET standard using data reflecting the field conditions. 

Development of a method to create a matrix of heavy rain damage rating standards using rainfall and heavy rain damage data (강우량 및 호우피해 자료를 이용한 호우피해 등급기준 Matrix작성 기법 개발)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Yoo, Jae Eun;Hur, Dasom;Jung, Seung Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2023
  • Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC's grade was higher than PERCENTILE's, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage.