• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sales prediction

Search Result 145, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Deep Learning-based Technology Valuation and Variables Estimation (딥러닝 기반의 기술가치평가와 평가변수 추정)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Ji-Hye;Jang, Yong-Ju;Lee, Jeong-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.21 no.10
    • /
    • pp.48-58
    • /
    • 2021
  • For securing technology and business competences of companies that is the engine of domestic industrial growth, government-supported policy programs for the creation of commercialization results in various forms such as 『Technology Transaction Market Vitalization』 and 『Technology Finance-based R&D Commercialization Support』 have been carried out since 2014. So far, various studies on technology valuation theories and evaluation variables have been formalized by experts from various fields, and have been utilized in the field of technology commercialization. However, Their practicality has been questioned due to the existing constraint that valuation results are assessed lower than the expectation in the evaluation sector. Even considering that the evaluation results may differ depending on factors such as the corporate situation and investment environment, it is necessary to establish a reference infrastructure to secure the objectivity and reliability of the technology valuation results. In this study, we investigate the evaluation infrastructure built by each institution and examine whether the latest artificial neural networks and deep learning technologies are applicable for performing predictive simulation of technology values based on principal variables, and predicting sales estimates and qualitative evaluation scores in order to embed onto the technology valuation system.

Self-optimizing feature selection algorithm for enhancing campaign effectiveness (캠페인 효과 제고를 위한 자기 최적화 변수 선택 알고리즘)

  • Seo, Jeoung-soo;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.173-198
    • /
    • 2020
  • For a long time, many studies have been conducted on predicting the success of campaigns for customers in academia, and prediction models applying various techniques are still being studied. Recently, as campaign channels have been expanded in various ways due to the rapid revitalization of online, various types of campaigns are being carried out by companies at a level that cannot be compared to the past. However, customers tend to perceive it as spam as the fatigue of campaigns due to duplicate exposure increases. Also, from a corporate standpoint, there is a problem that the effectiveness of the campaign itself is decreasing, such as increasing the cost of investing in the campaign, which leads to the low actual campaign success rate. Accordingly, various studies are ongoing to improve the effectiveness of the campaign in practice. This campaign system has the ultimate purpose to increase the success rate of various campaigns by collecting and analyzing various data related to customers and using them for campaigns. In particular, recent attempts to make various predictions related to the response of campaigns using machine learning have been made. It is very important to select appropriate features due to the various features of campaign data. If all of the input data are used in the process of classifying a large amount of data, it takes a lot of learning time as the classification class expands, so the minimum input data set must be extracted and used from the entire data. In addition, when a trained model is generated by using too many features, prediction accuracy may be degraded due to overfitting or correlation between features. Therefore, in order to improve accuracy, a feature selection technique that removes features close to noise should be applied, and feature selection is a necessary process in order to analyze a high-dimensional data set. Among the greedy algorithms, SFS (Sequential Forward Selection), SBS (Sequential Backward Selection), SFFS (Sequential Floating Forward Selection), etc. are widely used as traditional feature selection techniques. It is also true that if there are many risks and many features, there is a limitation in that the performance for classification prediction is poor and it takes a lot of learning time. Therefore, in this study, we propose an improved feature selection algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of the existing campaign. The purpose of this study is to improve the existing SFFS sequential method in the process of searching for feature subsets that are the basis for improving machine learning model performance using statistical characteristics of the data to be processed in the campaign system. Through this, features that have a lot of influence on performance are first derived, features that have a negative effect are removed, and then the sequential method is applied to increase the efficiency for search performance and to apply an improved algorithm to enable generalized prediction. Through this, it was confirmed that the proposed model showed better search and prediction performance than the traditional greed algorithm. Compared with the original data set, greed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), and recursive feature elimination (RFE), the campaign success prediction was higher. In addition, when performing campaign success prediction, the improved feature selection algorithm was found to be helpful in analyzing and interpreting the prediction results by providing the importance of the derived features. This is important features such as age, customer rating, and sales, which were previously known statistically. Unlike the previous campaign planners, features such as the combined product name, average 3-month data consumption rate, and the last 3-month wireless data usage were unexpectedly selected as important features for the campaign response, which they rarely used to select campaign targets. It was confirmed that base attributes can also be very important features depending on the type of campaign. Through this, it is possible to analyze and understand the important characteristics of each campaign type.

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.67-83
    • /
    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

The Design and Implementation of a Vendor Managed Inventory System for Smaller Online Shopping Malls (중소 인터넷 쇼핑몰을 위한 판매자 재고관리 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Choi, O-Hoon;Lim, Jung-Eun;Na, Hong-Seok;Baik, Doo-Kwon
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.295-303
    • /
    • 2008
  • With universality of e-commerce through internet, smaller online shopping malls are increased. A Smaller online shopping mall by nature lacks an extra space to load many inventory quantities. Therefore, it is difficult to response immediately with client request with traditional inventory management method. VMI has a character that supplier can control volume of inventory according to sales of seller. This paper proposes SOHO-VMI that is applied VMI into smaller online shopping mall. Proposed SOHO-VMI supports M $\times$ N structure can interact with multiple suppliers and sellers. And it uses XML/EDI for interaction with EDI documents use to legacy system. Also, This paper proposes logistics statistic prediction algorithm can adjust production and distribution volumes to supplier considering seller's product distribution information and seasonal factor.

  • PDF

A Study on the Disaggregation Method of Time Series Data (시계열 자료의 분할에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Moon, Sungho;Lee, Jeong-Hyeong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.12 no.6
    • /
    • pp.155-160
    • /
    • 2014
  • When we collect marketing data, we can only obtain the bimonthly or quarterly data but the monthly data be available. If we evaluate or predict monthly market condition or establish monthly marketing strategies, we need to disaggregate these bimonthly or quarterly data to the monthly data. In this paper, for bimonthly or quarterly data, we introduce some methods of disaggregation to monthly data. These disaggregation methods include the simple average method, the growth rate method, the weighting method by the judgment of experts, and variable decomposition method using 12 month moving cumulative sum. In this paper, we applied variable decomposition method to disaggregate for bimonthly data of sum of electronics sales in a European country. We, also, introduce how to use this method to predict the future data.

Wrapper-based Economy Data Collection System Design And Implementation (래퍼 기반 경제 데이터 수집 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Piao, Zhegao;Gu, Yeong Hyeon;Yoo, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.227-230
    • /
    • 2015
  • For analyzing and prediction of economic trends, it is necessary to collect particular economic news and stock data. Typical Web crawler to analyze the page content, collects document and extracts URL automatically. On the other hand there are forms of crawler that can collect only document of a particular topic. In order to collect economic news on a particular Web site, we need to design a crawler which could directly analyze its structure and gather data from it. The wrapper-based web crawler design is required. In this paper, we design a crawler wrapper for Economic news analysis system based on big data and implemented to collect data. we collect the data which stock data, sales data from USA auto market since 2000 with wrapper-based crawler. USA and South Korea's economic news data are also collected by wrapper-based crawler. To determining the data update frequency on the site. And periodically updated. We remove duplicate data and build a structured data set for next analysis. Primary to remove the noise data, such as advertising and public relations, etc.

  • PDF

The Effect of Related Party Transactions on Crash Risk (특수관계자 거래가 주가급락에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Hae-Young
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.49-55
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose - This paper examines the effect of related party transactions on crash firm-specific stock price crash risk. Ownership of a typical Korean conglomerate is concentrated in a single family. In those entities, management and board positions are often filled by family members. Therefore, a dominant shareholder can benefit from related party transactions. In Korea, firms have to report related party transactions in financial statement footnotes. However, those are not disclosed in detail. The more related party transactions are the greater information risk. Thus, companies with related party transactions are likely to experience stock price crashes. Research design, data, and methodology - 2,598 firm-year observations are used for the main analysis. Those samples are from TS2000 database from 2009 to 2013, and the database covers KOSPI-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for related party transactions (RTP) is calculated by dividing total transactions to the related-party by total sales. A dummy variable is used as a dependent variable (CRASH) in the regression model. Logistic regression is used to explain the relationship between related party transactions and crash risk. Then, the sample was separated into two groups; tunneling firms and propping firms. The relation between related party transactions and crash risk variances with features of the transaction were investigated. Results - Using a sample of KOSPI-listed firms in TS2000 database for the period of 2009-2013, I find that stock price crash risk increases as the trade volume of related-party transactions increases. Specifically, I find that the coefficient of RPT is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. In addition, this relationship is strong and robust in tunneling firms. Conclusions - The results report that firms with related party transactions are more likely to experience stock price crashes. The results mean that related party transactions increase the possibility of future stock price crashes by enlarging information asymmetry between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders. In case of tunneling, it could be seen that related party transactions are positively associated with stock crash risk. The result implies that the characteristic of the transaction influences crash risk. This study is related to a literature that investigates the effect of related party transactions on the stock market.

The Effect of Managerial Overconfidence on Crash Risk (경영자과신이 주가급락위험에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Haeyoung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.87-93
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

A deep learning analysis of the KOSPI's directions (딥러닝분석과 기술적 분석 지표를 이용한 한국 코스피주가지수 방향성 예측)

  • Lee, Woosik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.287-295
    • /
    • 2017
  • Since Google's AlphaGo defeated a world champion of Go players in 2016, there have been many interests in the deep learning. In the financial sector, a Robo-Advisor using deep learning gains a significant attention, which builds and manages portfolios of financial instruments for investors.In this paper, we have proposed the a deep learning algorithm geared toward identification and forecast of the KOSPI index direction,and we also have compared the accuracy of the prediction.In an application of forecasting the financial market index direction, we have shown that the Robo-Advisor using deep learning has a significant effect on finance industry. The Robo-Advisor collects a massive data such as earnings statements, news reports and regulatory filings, analyzes those and recommends investors how to view market trends and identify the best time to purchase financial assets. On the other hand, the Robo-Advisor allows businesses to learn more about their customers, develop better marketing strategies, increase sales and decrease costs.

Application of machine learning models for estimating house price (단독주택가격 추정을 위한 기계학습 모형의 응용)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.51 no.2
    • /
    • pp.219-233
    • /
    • 2016
  • In social science fields, statistical models are used almost exclusively for causal explanation, and explanatory modeling has been a mainstream until now. In contrast, predictive modeling has been rare in the fields. Hence, we focus on constructing the predictive non-parametric model, instead of the explanatory model. Gangnam-gu, Seoul was chosen as a study area and we collected single-family house sales data sold between 2011 and 2014. We applied non-parametric models proposed in machine learning area including generalized additive model(GAM), random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS) and support vector machines(SVM). Models developed recently such as MARS and SVM were found to be superior in predictive power for house price estimation. Finally, spatial autocorrelation was accounted for in the non-parametric models additionally, and the result showed that their predictive power was enhanced further. We hope that this study will prompt methodology for property price estimation to be extended from traditional parametric models into non-parametric ones.

  • PDF